{"id":12584,"date":"2024-07-06T05:36:29","date_gmt":"2024-07-06T09:36:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.routineproceedings.com\/?p=12584"},"modified":"2024-07-06T03:23:33","modified_gmt":"2024-07-06T07:23:33","slug":"roundup-impossible-to-extrapolate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.routineproceedings.com\/2024\/07\/06\/roundup-impossible-to-extrapolate\/","title":{"rendered":"Roundup: Impossible to extrapolate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As with so many elections these days, it brings out the electoral reform fetishists, and they get self-righteous and say dumb things all over social media, and this week\u2019s general election in the UK is no different. And lo, those fetishists are again making pronouncements about things like \u201cvoters\u2019 wishes\u201d because they\u2019re trying to find a grand narrative that confirms their priors, and I fear I may lose my gods damned mind over this.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I swear to Zeus, takes like this are going to push me over the edge today. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/w82wWEdsyQ\">https:\/\/t.co\/w82wWEdsyQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/journo_dale\/status\/1809247433030766799?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 5, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Once again, let us remember what this election is\u2014650 separate and simultaneous elections, each one for a specific seat. So yes, the voters\u2019 wishes are reflected because they chose who filled each seat. As well, I will once again remind you that the so-called \u201cpopular vote\u201d is a logical fallacy because there is too much variation between each electoral contest to make any kind of grand aggregate that is meaningful\u2014particularly in the UK, where the smaller countries have regional parties that England doesn\u2019t, and yes, that does distort the \u201cnational picture\u201d (as what happens in Canada with the Bloc). And no, every vote that is cast does not deserve their own seat. That\u2019s not democracy, and it\u2019s actually sore loserism if you believe that your vote doesn\u2019t count if the person or party you prefer doesn\u2019t win.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">On talking about mandates with 34% of the popular vote. <\/p>\n<p>Confidence is what matters. Leave aside the questionable claims about representing the General Will. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KFNowG9IeV\">https:\/\/t.co\/KFNowG9IeV<\/a><\/p>\n<p>— Philippe Lagass\u00e9 (@LagasseSubstack) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/LagasseSubstack\/status\/1809225436942983470?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 5, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Even if you prefer purely proportional representation, it doesn't make sense to say that Labour "should" have won only 35% of the seats. There's negative reason to assume that people will play a game the same way when you change the rules.<\/p>\n<p>— Moebius Stripper (@moebius_strip) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/moebius_strip\/status\/1809204505684140337?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 5, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>This is the other aspect of these fetishists spouting off and producing their own graphs of how they claim that Parliament \u201cshould\u201d look if they had a PR system, erm, except they seem to always insist that it would be pure-PR (which is almost entirely unlikely), and it discounts that voting behaviour would change, but so would party formation under a system that no longer rewards big-tent brokerage in favour of post-election negotiation for coalitions. In no possible way can you extrapolate a vote like Thursday\u2019s and come up with what a Parliament \u201cshould\u201d look like, but that won\u2019t stop the fetishists from trying.<\/p>\n<p>Oh, and if one of these fetishists also tries to bring up lines about how the current single-member plurality system is \u201cbad for democracy,\u201d I\u2019m not sure that PR is having a great run right now, as it legitimizes far-right and extremist parties that is almost impossible under SMP, and that legitimacy afforded to them is allowing them to grow across Europe. The situation in the Netherlands is also cause for concern, given that the far-right parties there have taken months to try to cobble together some sort of working coalition and may prove completely unworkable or ungovernable, and that\u2019s not good for anyone.<\/p>\n<p>Ukraine Dispatch<\/p>\n<p>The Russian advance toward Toretsk in the Donetsk region means that time is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/time-running-out-ukrainians-fleeing-russias-advance-2024-07-05\/\">running out<\/a> for any Ukrainian citizens that want to flee. While Ukraine managed to destroy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/ukrainian-military-says-it-downed-all-32-drones-launched-by-russia-overnight-2024-07-05\/\">all 32 Russian drones<\/a> launched Friday night, early Saturday morning was another story\u2014drones hit an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/russian-drone-attack-ukraine-hits-energy-facility-sumy-region-2024-07-06\/\">energy facility<\/a> in Sumy, and hits on Selydove and Komar <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/russian-attacks-kill-three-injure-20-ukraines-east-2024-07-05\/\">killed eight<\/a> combined. Meanwhile, the head of Ukraine\u2019s navy says that Russia has \u00a0nearly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/ukraine-navy-chief-says-russia-is-losing-crimean-hub-black-sea-2024-07-05\/\">re-based<\/a> all of its combat-read warships from occupied Crimea, because of the number of successful Ukrainian strikes on the region.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Over the past day of July 4, the Russian army attacked the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Zaporizhzhia?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Zaporizhzhia<\/a> Oblast 272 times.<\/p>\n<p>Source: Ivan Fedorov, the head of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/eCMzMFpb4c\">pic.twitter.com\/eCMzMFpb4c<\/a><\/p>\n<p>— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ukraine_world\/status\/1809150064251605069?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 5, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\u26a1\ufe0fPartisans claim sabotage of Russian railway transporting North Korean ammo.<\/p>\n<p>Ukrainian partisans claimed on July 5 to have successfully sabotaged a railway line near the Russian city of Yekaterinburg, halting trains being used to transport North Korean ammunition. In a post on\u2026<\/p>\n<p>— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/KyivIndependent\/status\/1809362408395481206?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 5, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><!--more-->Good reads:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>There are more <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/politics\/birju-dattani-human-rights-commission-1.7253816\">questions raised<\/a> about what the government knew about the new CHRC chair\u2019s social media, or whether he actually tweeted anything objectionable.<\/li>\n<li>There are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecanadianpressnews.ca\/business\/a-new-u-k-government-renews-hopes-for-a-free-trade-deal-with-canada\/article_2b38675d-fdfd-58c9-bf3d-0f60c8f24e8c.html\">hopes<\/a> that with a new UK government, that trade talks can resume in order to finalise a proper post-Brexit free-trade agreement.<\/li>\n<li>The report on the 2022 Rogers outage has been turned into the CRTC, and finds human error to be the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/politics\/rogers-outage-human-error-system-deficiencies-1.7255641\">initial cause<\/a> of said outage, which got compounded.<\/li>\n<li>Anthony Housefather has now formally been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecanadianpressnews.ca\/politics\/montreal-liberal-mp-anthony-housefather-named-to-new-antisemitism-adviser-role\/article_27e7d859-c98e-5079-8e68-50991707d33b.html\">appointed<\/a> to a special advisor role on combatting antisemitism, four months after having been promised it.<\/li>\n<li>Pierre Poilievre has been <a href=\"https:\/\/globalnews.ca\/news\/10604598\/in-groundbreaking-move-poilievre-campaigns-among-evangelical-christians\/\">campaigning<\/a> at evangelical churches, and the story omits that he visited three during the Toronto Pride parade (which was a choice).<\/li>\n<li>In his upcoming book, Marc Garneau <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecanadianpressnews.ca\/entertainment\/canadas-global-reputation-suffering-under-trudeau-garneau-asserts-in-autobiography\/article_cfb18a93-6943-5621-a6f9-f9e8f9d4f4b4.html\">criticises<\/a> the government\u2019s approach to foreign affairs as being mostly about pronouncements with little follow-through. (Fair!)<\/li>\n<li>Negotiations around Legal Aid Alberta have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecanadianpressnews.ca\/politics\/legal-aid-alberta-to-continue-service-as-negotiations-resume-on-new-governance-deal\/article_6e1c49dc-565c-5c0e-b87c-2cf31a999e12.html\">resumed<\/a>, so they will continue to provide services in the interim.<\/li>\n<li>Anne Applebaum <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/international\/archive\/2024\/07\/uk-elections-2024-labour-party\/678892\/?gift=hVZeG3M9DnxL4CekrWGK36Hh-ZGDdnq_iEIT4cZ54LE&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share\">explains<\/a> how Kier Starmer defeated populism on both the left and the right of his Labour party.<\/li>\n<li>Shannon Proudfoot <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/politics\/opinion\/article-justin-trudeau-and-joe-biden-are-used-to-being-underestimated-thats\/\">notes<\/a> the similarity in both Trudeau and Biden having a record of being underestimated, but why that may be making both delusional at present.<\/li>\n<li>My <a href=\"https:\/\/looniepolitics.com\/mark-carney-wont-save-you-liberals\/\">weekend column<\/a> makes the case that Mark Carney won\u2019t save the Liberal Party, and that they need to give up this fantasy and turn to constructive solutions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Odds and ends:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Receipts. For fun, we're reminded that in some cases, farmers may already have used up the million dollar lifetime *capital gains* exemption on previous land sales. Now, silly me, but isn't it also Trudeau's fault that land is now dramatically more expensive? <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/K5MX9h2sPW\">pic.twitter.com\/K5MX9h2sPW<\/a><\/p>\n<p>— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/andrew_leach\/status\/1809289018200453573?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 5, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">You weren\u2019t because it wasn\u2019t an actual portfolio under the Harper government, and housing prices doubled under Harper\u2019s watch too. It\u2019s almost like correlation\u2260causation. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/aE1B2GNjw6\">pic.twitter.com\/aE1B2GNjw6<\/a><\/p>\n<p>— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/journo_dale\/status\/1809222404742189476?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 5, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><strong>Want more Routine Proceedings?\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.patreon.com\/journo_dale\">Become a patron<\/a>\u00a0and get exclusive new content. <\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As with so many elections these days, it brings out the electoral reform fetishists, and they get self-righteous and say dumb things all over social media, and this week\u2019s general election in the UK is no different. And lo, those … <a href=\"https:\/\/www.routineproceedings.com\/2024\/07\/06\/roundup-impossible-to-extrapolate\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">→<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[41],"tags":[305,487,52,176,317,154,109,132,359],"class_list":["post-12584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-roundup","tag-appointments","tag-electoral-reform","tag-marc-garneau","tag-mark-carney","tag-pierre-poilievre","tag-populism","tag-telecom","tag-trade","tag-ukraine"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p2jJFQ-3gY","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.routineproceedings.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12584","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.routineproceedings.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.routineproceedings.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.routineproceedings.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.routineproceedings.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12584"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.routineproceedings.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12584\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12585,"href":"https:\/\/www.routineproceedings.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12584\/revisions\/12585"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.routineproceedings.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12584"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.routineproceedings.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12584"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.routineproceedings.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12584"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}