Tag Archives: Tough on Crime

Roundup: The credible intelligence gets a lot weightier

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At the UN General Assembly, prime minister Justin Trudeau reiterated what he said about credible intelligence pointing to Indian agents responsible for the murder of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil, and said that he is calling on India to help with the investigation. But what we have since learned is that the credible intelligence includes both human sources and signals intelligence from Five Eyes allies that includes Indian diplomats’ communications, and that is certainly lending a lot more heft to these allegations—on top of the fact that the director of CSIS and the National Security Advisory made trips to India to deal with government sources there, and sources are saying that behind closed doors, the Indian government isn’t denying the existence of this intelligence. That’s a pretty big deal, particularly as members of the Pundit Class in this country are trying to insinuate that this is really about Trudeau ginning up controversy to create a distraction (which doesn’t follow this government’s pattern at all).

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1705084748823961930

In the meantime, India has stopped processing travel visas from Canada under the transparently ludicrous excuse that their facilities face security threats, which affects a lot of people here hoping to visit family. Trudeau didn’t say if he would respond in kind, but it seems unlikely if he is serious about saying he’s not trying to provoke or escalate this with India, but to actually get to the bottom of this. (The fact that India doesn’t want to cooperate in public does appear to be something of a tell).

Zelenskyy Visit

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy landed in Ottawa last night. He will be visiting Governor General Mary May Simon this morning, followed by a visit to Parliament Hill, where he will be greeted my parliamentarians in advance of an address to Parliament that will take place around 1 PM Eastern.

https://twitter.com/journo_dale/status/1705081288808403189

Ukraine Dispatch:

While president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in Washington, Russian forces pounded more Ukrainian cities, with more deaths being reported in the southern city of Kherson. There has been more shelling of Kherson early this morning. Here is a look at the Ukrainian soldiers fighting their way back to reclaiming Bakhmut.

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QP: Needling about the usefulness of competing housing plans

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While the prime minister was still at the United Nations, his deputy was back in Ottawa and introduced a bill earlier in the day, but was absent from Question Period as it got underway, as was at least one other leader. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he cited documents published by the Bank of Canada where the governors are worried about creating false hopes about interest rates, and blamed Chrystia Freeland for creating those false hopes when she declared victory over inflation, and it has gone up since, and blamed deficits for this rise (which is not true). François-Philippe Champage replied in English that the last time Poilievre gave people advice, it was to buy crypto, and then patted himself on the back for tabling the bill on removing GST from apartment buildings and reforming competition law. Poilievre accused him of auditioning for the prime minister’s job, and repeated in English his accusation about Freeland and the nonsense about the deficit. This time Anita Anand got up, and she insisted that the government has a plan, unlike the Conservatives, and listed a few measures. Poilievre said that judging by applause, Champagne has a lead in leadership ambitions to Anand before using that as a segue to repeat the line about the Bank of Canada worrying about false hopes. Champagne got back up to again praise the bill they introduced earlier in the day. Poilievre blamed the federal government for housing price, and Sean Fraser got up to say that Poilievre’s plan only tinkers around the edges and doesn’t do anything measurable, and gave a couple of examples, calling Poilievre a “pretender” hanging things in the window. Poilievre insisted that his plan would ensure that nobody got tax breaks for $10 million luxury penthouse apartments, while his plan would get homes built. Fraser insisted that Poilievre’s plan wouldn’t do what he claims, that his government was doing what experts said, and that Poilievre may need to go back to him image consultant and start wearing glasses again if he couldn’t see that.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he complained that the government was going to impose conditions on the $900 million in housing accelerator funds when social housing is a provincial responsibility. Fraser insisted that he was working with his counterpart in Quebec, in both languages. Blanchet insisted that the government was wasting time while seniors were not getting help with the cost of living, as big oil was making profits. (That’s…a stretch). Jonathan Wilkinson reminded him that they have been eliminating subsidies for the industry while working to create good green jobs.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and railed that the legislation on eliminating the GST on apartment buildings did not contain a definition of affordable. Soraya Martinez Ferrada praised their national housing strategy. Lindsay Mathyssen complained that the government isn’t stopping landlords from evicting people (which is a provincial responsibility), and demanded a federal acquisition fund to buy buildings to keep them affordable. Fraser patted himself on the back for their previous announcement in London, Ontario.

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Roundup: “Credible allegations” of an assassination on Canadian soil

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It was an unexpected moment after Question Period, when Justin Trudeau returned to the House of Commons, and took advantage of the Statements by Ministers slot in Routine Proceedings to speak on an issue of “national security,” and revealed that credible intelligence from Canadian agencies has found that an agent of the Indian government was likely responsible for the murder of a Sikh leader in British Columbia several months ago. Other opposition leaders expressed their shock, and support for the government in this—being unusually less dickish than usual (until they denied Elizabeth May her own opportunity to speak—the dickishness resumed at that point). It also sounds like the timing of this announcement was earlier than anticipated—the Globe and Mail got a leak and went to confirm it with the government, and were asked if they could hold off publishing for a week, and the Globe said they had 24 hours, so Trudeau was forced to do this now, and not after he returned from the UN General Assembly.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1703856088238416330

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1703879668842016904

Shortly thereafter, Mélanie Joly and Dominic LeBlanc scrummed in the Foyer and said that a high-ranking Indian diplomat was expelled from the country, and it sounds like the government is considering further measures in the near future. It also sounds like this was being discussed at the G20 meeting in India last week, as both the head of CSIS and Trudeau’s National Security Advisor were on the trip, and suddenly the frostiness with Narendra Modi and the cancelled trade mission make so much more sense, being as this was being pursued in back channels during the summit, not only with Indian officials but also with allied countries including the US and the UK.

For background, here is what we know about the victim, and the timeline of events surrounding the murder. India, predictably, refutes this.

Ukraine Dispatch:

There have been Russian attacks on both Lviv in the west and Kherson in the south. Ukrainian forces say they breached Russian lines near Bakhmut in the east, and have reclaimed two more villages. Six deputy defence ministers were fired, possibly in relation to a corruption scandal.

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Roundup: Losing faith in the justice system because of provincial choices

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The CBC has a story out about how a retired corporal from the military has lost faith in the justice system because court delays stayed the trial of her alleged attacker, and you can bet that pretty much everyone is going to take absolutely the wrong lessons from this, most especially legacy media.

The administration of justice—courts, Crown prosecutors, support staff—are all firmly within provincial jurisdiction. And for decades, provinces have been under-funding their systems while whinging that the federal government isn’t doing things like making bail harder to get (which is, frankly, unconstitutional). There is a story out of Toronto on the very same day about how staffing shortages—because of the province—have caused closures in courtrooms which led to a different sexual assault trial being tossed because they can’t get a trial within a reasonable time for the rights of the accused. And in the case of the corporal, it was because the Crown prosecutors (again, provincial responsibility) couldn’t get their shit together to push the case forward. And no, this has nothing to do with the federal government not filling judicial vacancies fast enough (which I have condemned this government for). These are all problems that are squarely within the provinces’ responsibilities.

And you can bet that people are going to try to both-sides this military issue because the provinces have been whinging that the military turning over cases to the civilian system is leaving them under-resources, even though it’s a handful of cases and the provinces have consistently made the policy choice over decades to under-fund their system. Trying to shift the blame to the federal government or whine that they’re not getting enough money is a well-worn pattern that we shouldn’t let them get away with. Unfortunately, that’s not in legacy media’s playbook, and you can bet that we’ll get more rounds of angry accusations that the federal government “let this happen” when clearly the failure was provincial the whole time.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces say they have reclaimed even more territory in the east and south parts of the country, as well as off-shore drilling platforms near occupied Crimea. Ukrainian forces have also been collecting Russian bodies along the “road of death” that they retook in June, so that they can exchange them for their own comrades, living and dead. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is calling on his country to remain focused on the war, with warnings that a “wartime budget” is coming, meaning this could go on for longer than many have hoped.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1701223223440928994

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Roundup: Cabinet retreat missives

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We are starting to see the parade of ministers being trotted out to the media from the Cabinet retreat in Charlottetown, PEI, and first up on everyone’s mind is housing and what the federal government should do about it. And they did hear from experts like Mike Moffatt yesterday, which is good, so we’ll see if anything comes of it. But of course, legacy media has glommed onto the issue of international students and whether they will cap them, without also exploring how that has become a necessary revenue stream for universities after provincial cutbacks and freezes, or the fact that there are a plethora of private colleges that the provinces are supposed to be regulating who have been abusing their ability to bring in international students basically to defraud them of hundreds of thousands of dollars while providing them a substandard education. That should be where more attention is being paid, but we all know that legacy media loves to blame the federal government instead of the provinces, so here we are.

We also heard from Dominic LeBlanc who again gave assurances that a public inquiry into foreign interference is in the works, but they are now trying to find a sitting judge who can lead it, because apparently all of the retired ones and other eminent Canadians who could do the job have all told them no—because who wants to subject themselves to partisan character assassination day-in-and-day-out? Of course, I half suspect that they’re going to get some pushback from the chief justices of the provinces about who could be made available considering that the federal government has been slow to make appointments and it’s contributing to delays and backlogs in the system as is, and taking someone out of circulation for another eighteen months doesn’t help the situation any.

Other ministerial soundbites include Chrystia Freeland insisting that they remain focused on the economy.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces say they have retaken a strategic south-eastern village as part of the counteroffensive, which continues its southward push. In addition to advanced Western weapons, the Ukrainians have developed a “mini-Grad” rocket launcher made up of old Soviet parts. In Athens, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Balkan leaders, as well as European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen. Ukrainian media is reporting that a group of saboteurs coordinated with Ukrainian military intelligence services to carry out drone attacks on air bases deep inside Russia, destroying and damaging aircraft. In Denmark, eight Ukrainian pilots have begun their F-16 fighter training.

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Roundup: Morneau’s sore hindsight bias

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As he tries to rehabilitate his reputation after his book was largely ridiculed and lambasted, Bill Morneau is back out there asserting that the pandemic spending programmes were too generous, went on too long, and are one of the causes for high inflation. This is clearly hindsight bias—economist Stephen Gordon resurrected a couple of tweets to push back against these kinds of assertions because they ignore the gravity of the situation at the time, and just how many unknowns they were dealing with at the time. And I do recall that Morneau was proposing measures at the time that were clearly inadequate and were politically unsaleable, which he didn’t seem to understand and then got huffy when PMO override his judgment—likely for the best, because we wound up with the actual desirable outcome. Higher inflation was the good outcome scenario. The alternative was deflation that would have spiralled into a depression, which was what everyone worked to avoid. Morneau just continues to be sore that he was overridden, and possibly that people aren’t taking his post-political attempts at reputation rehabilitation more seriously.

https://twitter.com/dgardner/status/1692258336815624347

Some additional data from Jennifer Robson:

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces are claiming progress on the south-eastern front as they push toward the Sea of Azov, which would split Russia’s forces in the occupied south; there has been fierce fighting in the north-eastern front in the Kharkiv region. The defence ministry is telling military-aged citizens to update their data at enlistment offices and to “overcome their fear.” The US has approved sending F-16s from Denmark and the Netherlands to Ukraine, once their pilots are fully trained—probably early in 2024. Meanwhile, Russia claims that two of their warships repelled drone attacks near occupied Crimea, and that a drone attack damaged a building at the centre of Moscow.

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Roundup: May inflation shows it’s cooling faster

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Statistics Canada released the May inflation numbers yesterday, and they were well down from the month previous, the headline number now down to 3.4 percent, which is in line what the Bank of Canada is predicting about it returning to about three percent by the end of the year. Part of this is because year-over-year gasoline prices fell, meaning that there is a base-year effect in play, but food inflation remains high (in large part because of climate change affecting food-growing regions and the difficulty in getting Ukrainian grain to market continues to keep those prices high), and mortgage interest rates are one of the factors fuelling this. Unfortunately, you have certain economists like Jim Stanford who think that this is the Bank causing this inflation, when in fact if they hadn’t raised rates when they did, higher inflation would still be ripping through the economy. (Seriously, stop listening to Jim Stanford).

Additionally, these numbers continue to prove that Pierre Poilievre’s narratives about inflation are specious at best, but are pretty much bullshit he is squeezing into whatever the headline seems to be. Last month, when there was a 0.1% uptick in inflation, Poilievre blamed it on the news of the budget deficit, and that this was proof that the deficit was “pouring gasoline on the inflationary fire.” That was wrong, and the Bank of Canada said that the trend was that inflation was still decreasing (and that the government’s fiscal policy was not having an effect on that decelerating inflation). And lo, inflation is still decelerating, in spite of the budget deficit. It’s like Poilievre has no idea what he’s talking about.

Meanwhile, economist Stephen Gordon has a few thoughts the numbers.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Two Russian missiles hit the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk, killing four and destroying a cafe that was fairly well known. Meanwhile, a UN human rights report shows that Russian forces carried out widespread and systematic torture of civilians they detained before executing them, but also found that Russians troops detained by Ukrainians also alleged torture and mistreatment.

https://twitter.com/united24media/status/1673784944798191617

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1673769121450696724

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QP: Some half-hearted swipes around the by-election results

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The prime minister was present for one of the final Question Periods of the sitting, but his deputy was away in Toronto, and only a few of the other leaders were present. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, claiming that trust in democracy has been “shattered” and that he has been working with opposition parties about a public inquiry, but demanded the inquiry be declared before he shared names for who to lead it. Justin Trudeau read a script about working with stakeholders and opposition leaders about next steps in this issue. Poilievre then pivoted and cited a letter to the Journal de Montreal about someone losing their house, and demanded a balanced budget, as though there were a correlation. Trudeau patted himself on the back for the “tangible investments for families” with things like dental care. Poilievre switched to English to worry about household debt and again demanded a balanced budget. Trudeau acknowledged that Canadians are struggling which was why they have supports for them, while the Conservatives only promise cuts. Poilievre reiterated the story of the woman losing her house, trying to tie this to the deficit, which is false, and demanded a balanced budget yet again. Trudeau again reiterated that the Conservatives only proposed cuts while Canada has the lowest deficit and debt-to-GDP in the G7, and then took a swipe at Poilievre’s underwhelming by-election results. Poilievre again tried to tie housing and rental price increase to deficits, which is specious, and Trudeau again took a swipe at the by-election results before patting himself on the back for his positive vision.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and as expected, he demanded a public inquiry immediately. Trudeau insisted that the opposition turned this into a partisan issue rather than taking this seriously. Therrien repeated his demands, and Trudeau repeated his same points about working to establish the next steps.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he worried about the rental prices in Toronto and blamed corporate landlords—never mind that this is an issue of provincial jurisdiction. Trudeau recited the housing measures that they have taken or are planning to take. Singh insisted that they were not acting with urgency and in French, noted that July 1st is Moving Day in Quebec and that families were under stress. Trudeau reiterated that they are there with projects and plans to help people.

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Roundup: By-election holds in all ridings

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There weren’t really any surprises in the by-election results last night, as both the Liberals and Conservatives held their respective seats. Both Liberals handily won their respective seats, getting over 50 percent of the votes in each riding, and they were a fairly close second in Oxford, but didn’t quite make it in the end with that seat. In Winnipeg South Centre, the fact that the Conservatives didn’t even crack 25 percent of the vote should be of concern to them, because this is the kind of riding they need to win if they’re going to form government, and they can’t. Again, in Oxford, the fact that the results were that close in a fairly safe Conservative riding should give them pause.

And then there’s Portage—Lisgar, and the big showdown with Maxime Bernier there, where the Conservatives wanted to “destroy” him. I’m not sure they succeeded, as the Conservatives got around 65 percent of the vote, and Bernier got around 17 percent, so I’m not sure it’s quite the “destruction” they had hoped for. It also came at a cost where they largely absorbed Bernier’s rhetoric in order to entice his votes to the Conservative party, but that is likely to have consequences, as they shift the Overton window ever further to the right, and far-right talking points become more mainstreamed.

Moving forward, expect each winner to visit their respective caucus meetings on Wednesday, and for Anna Gainey from Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount to make it into Cabinet in short order during the upcoming shuffle, because she’s one of the few people that Trudeau trusts, which is why the government has as many problems as it does.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russia launched another large air raid overnight, targeting mostly Kyiv but also other cities but no casualties have been reported. In part this is because Ukraine has been building a three-stage defence system using the technology provided by Western partners. Meanwhile, the counter-offensive slogs on, with Ukrainian officials promising that the biggest blow is yet to come.

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QP: Countdown to whether a public inquiry will happen before summer

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The prime minister was away in Halifax, while his deputy was present today, though most of the other leaders weren’t.

Things got off to a late start, but when they did, Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he worried about increasing payments for housing and mortgages, and got onto his bullshit about deficits causing inflation (they’re not). Chrystia Freeland asserted that they found the right balance between fiscal responsibility and compassion, and listed measures like child care and dental care while ensuring the lowest deficit in the G7. Poilievre insisted the government raised taxes on food (false) and decried the clean fuel standard as a second carbon price (it’s not), to which Steven Guilbeault raised the fires and floods we are facing but the Conservatives have no climate plan. Poilievre switched to English to ridicule the notion that carbon prices will stop forest fires (absolutely nobody has said this), and Guilbeault tried to ridicule the Conservatives’ plan for technology and that the minister of national resources does more for climate change before his first coffee any day than the Conservatives did in ten years. Poilievre quoted the Liberal premier of Newfoundland and Labrador on carbon prices, and this time Gudie Hutchings stood up to praise the government for making rural economic development a full department. Poilievre cited the false figures around the clean fuel standard and demanded it be axed, and this time Guilbeault said that they listed to the Atlantic premiers and delayed implementation of that standard by two years, two years ago, and that time is now up.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and demanded a public inquiry before Friday. Marco Mendicino said that Dominic LeBlanc was on the case. Therrien demanded the inquiry be announced immediately, and Mendicino reiterate that LeBlanc was engaging with them.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and he decried that the government did nothing about forest fires by not spending enough on climate action. Steven Guilbeault went on a tangent about the pandemic, and that they managed to do more in spite of it. Taylor Bachrach repeated the accusation in English, and Guilbeault recited praise for the national adaptation strategy.

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