Roundup: Sorrow and motions

As the various party leaders lined up, one after another, to give their positions before the microphones on yesterday’s return of the House of Commons, prime minister Justin Trudeau devoted his presser to the mass-shooting in Nova Scotia and the loss of an RCMP constable, including a direct address to children as part of his speech. More controversially, Trudeau made a plea to media not to name the killer and give him the “gift of infamy,” which became the subject of many a column the rest of the day. During the Q&A, he insisted he didn’t want to fight about the return of the Commons, while also saying that the government was not backing away from its plans to enact further gun control measures.

Not far away, the Commons resumed its sitting with a skeleton complement, kicking off with Green MP Paul Manly immediately launching a point of privilege to complain that their health and safety was being jeopardized by the sitting, and it impacted on the ability of MPs who faced travel restrictions to participate. (Manly’s point was later rejected by the Speaker). After a very surreal QP, and more speeches on the Nova Scotia shooting, the vote was held and it was decided that there would be in-person sittings on Wednesdays starting next week, with planned 90-minute “virtual” sittings on Tuesdays and Thursdays – you know, assuming that they can actually get them up and running. Also, those sessions would not be regular sittings of the Commons, but would qualify as “special committee” sessions that would be devoted to two-and-a-quarter-hour-long sessions to ask questions of the government.

Throughout this whole debate, I keep shaking my head at the fact that they insist that they don’t want MPs to keep travelling, or how MPs from regions with travel restrictions can’t participate, but nobody can apparently fathom that MPs could travel to Ottawa, and then *gasp* stay there! You know, like they have housing allowances and per diems that facilitate it. This insistence on once-per-week sittings means that there will be all kinds of unnecessary travel, travel that MPs from those regions can’t participate in (or at least not easily), and it needlessly complicates this whole affair when we could have more easily kept a skeleton parliament with these MPs who stay in Ottawa present, and just ensured that you had a representative sampling that includes MPs from those otherwise hard-to-travel-to-and-from regions so they don’t have to travel back-and-forth. It’s revolutionary, I know. None of this is rocket science, and yes, it involves some sacrifice on the part of these MPs, but no worse than some of our essential healthcare workers who also can’t see their families during this crisis.

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Roundup: Framing models as data

For his daily presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau started off by saying that the government had signed an agreement with Amazon Canada – and not Canada Post – to manage the distribution of personal protective equipment to the provinces and territories when it is received by the federal government, but one imagines that this also involves warehousing and logistics than just simply delivery. He also announced $100 million being diverted to help meet food insecurity needs, through Food Banks Canada, as well as a variety of other breakfast clubs and other food organizations. He also mentioned his teleconference with the other premiers and their devotion to data sharing and projections, and that they were working to verify the latest figures that were being put online. During the Q&A, he confirmed that Canadian Forces – in the form of Rangers – have been dispatched to the Nunavik region of Northern Quebec, and addressed the news that the American president had ordered 3M to stop sending N95 masks to Canada and other Latin American countries (3M’s president pushed back citing humanitarian concerns and retaliation), and Trudeau stated that he has warned the Americans not to block access to needed supplies – particularly as Canada has many supplies and healthcare workers the Americans need, such as the 1000 nurses who live in Windsor but work in Detroit. It does highlight the need for more domestic production of these masks as competition for procurement gets more intense globally.

And then, Ontario released its modelling of some potential COVID-19 morbidity scenarios in the province, and the media went crazy. Despite the fact that this modelling is not data and that they are mere possible scenarios that are used for planning purposes, it was framed as “data” and in the language of how many people “will die,” as though this was mathematical certainty (though a handful said “could,” as though it were any better). And lo, all of the headlines used both this framing and sensationalism, they buried the new restrictions that are being imposed in Ontario as a result. And when some of the doctors that were being interviewed about these projections, and those doctors pushed back that this wasn’t data, self-righteous journalists threw tantrums about how this was information the public had a right to know, and so on.

But here’s the thing – part of this is a transparent attempt by Doug Ford to justify his further crackdowns, which I get. (Thread from Scott Reid here for context). But at the same time, there is no nuance to reporting of these models, they are incorrectly framed, and it’s throwing a lot of big numbers and timeframes out there without sufficient context. It’s not only disaster porn, but I fear that it will not actually have the desired effect of scaring people into compliance with lockdown measures. Instead, I am reminded of the aphorism that a single death is a tragedy, but a thousand deaths is a statistic – and numbers like these (the wild range of 3000 to 15,000) will have the real possibility of becoming a statistic in people’s minds, which may do more to undermine the whole reason why this modelling was released in the first place. And that worries me more than anything else.

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Roundup: Supplies, spin, and rent

Prime minister Justin Trudeau’s daily presser was on the theme of medical supplies – signing agreements with three major medical suppliers in the country, MOUs signed with five other companies, and some 3000 other companies who have volunteered to help the government with those supplies in whatever way they can. Trudeau also noted that they have allocated an additional $2 billion for new personal protective equipment, largely by way of bulk-purchasing, and that more supplies would be arriving within days. As well, the government is tasking its next-generation manufacturing supercluster with scaling-up these kinds of producers to meet the domestic and global demand. Why this became a somewhat fraught issue is because there are places in the country where PPEs are being rationed, and Quebec stating that they were days away from running out – though Trudeau said that in some cases, it may be the medical providers who were rationing because they were trying to preserve supplies for an anticipated surge of cases.

[Here is another Q&A with infectious diseases specialist, Dr. Isaac Bogoch, and a discussion on the current debate about masks.]

Meanwhile, the National Post hears from a bunch of government insiders who claim that the attempt to get the power of taxation without parliamentary approval was about trying to hold leverage of the big banks who have been reluctant to loosen lending requirements, which is an explanation that makes absolutely no sense, and makes me again repeat that there appears to be a cadre of jackasses in Morneau’s office who have been responsible for many of this government’s missteps and woes, and we shouldn’t trust them.

And while I’m on the subject of jackasses, I spent much of yesterday on the Twitter Machine trying to remind people that rent is provincial jurisdiction, so constantly hounding the federal government is a waste of time. This was met with numerous people who insisted that the federal government could invoke the Emergencies Act to claim that power. The mind boggles. Why in the hell would the federal government invoke the tool of last resort to intrude into landlord/tenant legislation when the provinces are perfectly capable of doing so on their own. It makes zero sense. Add to that the people crying out that the federal government should immediately give money to renters, as though there were a mechanism to do so. It’s taking the CRA three weeks to retool their systems to deliver the CERB, which is a pretty breakneck speed to ensure that the system can do what’s being asked of it and hopefully not fail doing it (because their computers are not magic, and you can’t just type “give everyone $2000” and expect it to happen. It’s impossible). And no, there is no analogous funding arrangement to healthcare or post-secondary, as others were trying to claim – those are funding envelopes to provincial governments that come with agreements. They don’t go to individuals, and they are not spending in provincial jurisdiction over the objection of any province. The number of people who seem to think otherwise is astounding.

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Roundup: Taking on domestic flights

For his Saturday presser, Trudeau went tie-less, because it’s the weekend. He mostly offered reassurances, but did say that formal orders were coming to keep symptomatic people from domestic flights and trains – which the federal government has authority over – but long-distance busses were provincial responsibility, so look there. He also mentioned – which was followed up by the Chief Public Health Officer minutes later in her own briefing – that there were signs that physical distancing was starting to bend the curve in BC, but as Dr. Theresa Tam reiterated, that means that now is the time to double down, not get lax.

Meanwhile, here’s economist Kevin Milligan reminding you of everything announced this week and how to access it.

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Roundup: Chartering special flights

For his Sunday presser, Justin Trudeau announced formally that the House of Commons was coming back on Tuesday afternoon to pass more emergency legislation, and that Canadian airlines were standing by to help with repatriation efforts. He also made it clear that the existing aid package was just a first step, and that they were actively considering what the next ones would be. He also made a direct address to children in the country, thanking them for their patience with all of this. In the subsequent ministerial presser, Patty Hajdu said that they were hoping for better coordination with provinces this week as to what measures they are taking, so that there will be less of a patchwork across the country. She’s also looking into criminal penalties for travellers who don’t self-isolate, so that could be coming in the next few days.

As for the return of Parliament, the agreement is that about 32 MPs are coming back – which is far more than there should be, given that quorum is 20 – and that they planned to have about four-and-a-half hours of debate on the legislation, and that while there wouldn’t be a formal Question Period, there was going to be time for MPs to ask questions of the ministers present. What we learned later in the day was that the government was sending out special planes to pick up Andrew Scheer, Candice Bergen and Don Plett, which I find highly dubious. There is no reason why they need to be in Ottawa if they weren’t there already (and I find Scheer’s excuse that he went to Regina for March Break to be problematic because he knew they were suspending Parliament before he left and knew full well that they would need to recall it, which is why that was part of the agreement). Now, if they decide they’re going to stay in Ottawa for the duration, then okay, sure, I’ll grudgingly give them a pass, but if they plan on having the government fly them back home after the single day’s sitting, then I’m sorry, but it’s completely irresponsible, not only because it’s modelling poor behaviour when people are being told to stay home unless it’s absolutely necessary for them to be out (and while I will argue that it is necessary for a Skeleton Parliament to be in place, it is not necessary that the Opposition Leader and House Leader be present when others can fill those duties temporarily), it’s also a huge waste of resources – particularly considering that Scheer has made a big deal of how much the current government is “wasteful,” with special websites and social media shitposts about. It’ll be even more galling if he has the government pay for Scheer’s wife and children to be returned to Stornaway with him, given his own particular spending scandal with party funds – particularly if the consideration for having needing Scheer and Bergen there to begin with is simply for the sake of having them be on camera.

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Most senators seem to be taking this more seriously, both in terms of restricting attendance to those within driving distance (Don Plett excepted), but also that they are holding teleconferences with their members to ensure that they fully discuss the legislation so that they can raise any particular concerns if they have them. Would that certain MPs were a bit more responsible in that regard.

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Roundup: Reassurances and critiques

It was a much calmer day yesterday with little in the way of new announcements – the most noteworthy part of Justin Trudeau’s daily presser was that he was actually on time for possibly the first time ever! Oh, and the border restrictions for non-essential travel will probably only kick in sometime on Friday night, but details were still being worked out. As well, there is still no contemplation of use of the Emergencies Act, but it remains a tool in the box if need be.

With the slower news day in mind, here is economist Kevin Milligan who goes through the criticisms of the government’s massive aid package, and addresses which are fair and which ones may not have all of the considerations therein.

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Roundup: Trudeau in isolation

The pace of COVID-19 news was relentless yesterday, culminating in the news that Sophie Grégoire Trudeau had tested positive for the virus following her trip to the UK, and that the prime minister would be isolated for the next two weeks as a result. He’d already announced earlier in the day that he was self-isolating while his wife was undergoing testing, and that he would be working from home, but it also meant the cancellation of the First Ministers Meeting – to be held later today by phone – and the indefinite postponement of said first ministers meeting with Indigenous leaders. Not to be outdone, Jagmeet Singh also announced that he was self-isolating because he was feeling “unwell.” And while more events get cancelled, Peter MacKay and Erin O’Toole have stated they will suspend public campaign activities for the time being (though one suspects that this will simply escalate into a shitpost war online as they battle for votes in that space).

The big question now is whether or not Parliament will suspend for the coming weeks, and there are moves afoot – the Senate has been recalled to sit tomorrow (they usually don’t sit Fridays), and the talk is that the Commons will pass the New NAFTA tomorrow morning, and send it to the Senate immediately for passage so that if there is a decision to suspend, that will be out of the way. And it should be noted that the Senate did to pre-study on the bill while it was still in the Commons, so that will expedite the passage in the Senate, provided that twelve different senators don’t feel the need to give useless Second Reading speeches (because that’s a real danger these days).

Once again, Maclean’s has resources on symptoms and how to get tested.

Meanwhile, Paul Wells gives a decent reading of the year to date, and makes the case that First Ministers’ meetings are pretty useless these days so the cancellation of this one is not a big loss. Heather Scoffield ensures that you know where to place the blame for the markets crashing and wiping out retirement savings. And here’s infectious disease specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch on what we can expect over the next two weeks.

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Roundup: An agreement, and a start to further discussions

On the fourth day of negotiations, federal Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister Carolyn Bennett, her BC counterpart, and the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs have come to an agreement regarding land title rights for Wet’suwet’en territory, which has been an open issue for decades. It will need to be ratified by the Wet’suwet’en nation after a period of consultation, but it is a step. This does not, however, completely solve the issue with the proposed Coastal GasLink pipeline – the vocal group of hereditary chiefs remain opposed (while those in the community who support the project feel they aren’t being heard), but this remains an issue where the community needs to come together and use the feast system under their laws to resolve these disputes, which hasn’t been happening. It will also require further discussions with the RCMP about their operations in their territory, but again, there seems to be some progress made.

Meanwhile, a discussion among legal experts is ongoing regarding the efficacy of using legal injunctions when there are land rights protests going on, because they can be too much of a blunt instrument. Some are suggesting that the injunctions be structured to allow for mediated consultation instead of heavy-handed orders to stop their protests, as has been done in some provinces when it comes to labour disputes. And a prime example of something unhelpful is the bill recently tabled in Alberta to further penalize protesters with heavy fines (which is already likely unconstitutional), but there does seem to be a definite mindset behind that kind of legislation.

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Roundup: An abortion bill to position around

The Conservatives’ abortion legislation problem has come home to roost early in the new parliament as MP Cathay Wagantall tabled a bill to ban sex-selective abortions, under the (bullshit) excuse that it reflects Canada’s commitment to gender equality. And because she’s 31 on the order of precedence for private members’ business, this will come up likely late spring or early fall. (Private members’ business is determined by lottery, and arrives on the Order Paper in batches of 30). And all eyes are on Andrew Scheer, who stated during the election that he would vote against any measures to attempt to re-open the abortion debate.

Why does this matter? Because the list of approved candidates for the Conservative leadership closed last night, and social conservatives have played kingmaker in both the last federal leadership contest, as well as the last Ontario one, which was done under the same rules. Already we’re seeing positioning among candidates, such as Erin O’Toole criticizing Peter MacKay for saying he would whip his Cabinet to vote against such a bill, saying that he would never whip anyone, Cabinet or backbench, on “moral issues.” It’s a completely transparent ploy – O’Toole is trying to ensure that he gets second-ballot support from the social conservatives when their preferred no-hope candidates get dropped off of the ranked preferential ballot. That’s how Andrew Scheer won, and it’s how Doug Ford won.

Meanwhile, it looks like it’ll be seven entrants in the race, though some approvals may yet be pending. Of those seven, three qualify as social conservatives, so the “frontrunners” like MacKay, O’Toole and maybe Marilyn Gladu will want the second and third votes from those no-hopers in the hopes of pushing them over the top. So this dynamic is very present in the leadership race, as Wagantall has put it on the table for them to debate around her.

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Roundup: Kenney looking to weaponize populist anger

It was Throne Speech day in Alberta yesterday, and while Kenney temporarily toned down his bellicosity for the sake of decorum, the speech was still full of strange promises. While Kenney promised to reduce unemployment, he nevertheless cited the report he devised to show that spending was too high while ignoring the province’s revenue problem, meaning more cuts are still likely. He also hinted at government investment in resource projects, which is mighty odd for someone who claims to support the free market (and this thread shows some of the context of Peter Lougheed’s investments in the sector which Kenney invoked). He also tabled the first bill, which promises fine for interrupting “critical infrastructure” – such as the rail blockades – because that’ll help.

The one thing that caught my attention most of all, however, was a proposal for recall petitions that would not only target MLAs, but also municipal councillors, mayors, and even school board trustees. I cannot stress enough how boneheaded an idea this is, because it will do absolutely nothing to enhance the practice of democracy, and will in fact weaken the representative democracy – along with their plans to allow citizens to petition referendums on whatever they want. Why they are even more concerning in the current context is because I am certain that this is about Kenney looking to weaponize populist anger against anyone who stands in his way. He has a cadre of paid shitposters, both in his office and in his $30 million a year “war room” that he can deploy against anyone in the province who stands up to Kenney – most especially the mayors of Edmonton and Calgary. Even if there is a high enough bar set to trigger these, as in BC, it nevertheless undermines the practice of Responsible Government and the confidence conventions inherent in our system. We already have accountability mechanisms – they’re called elections. Recall is not only an Americanism that does not fit with our system, I have no doubt that this is about portraying dissent as illegitimate, and using recall legislation as a threat. This will only increase the ugliness that is creeping into our politics, and that Kenney is gleefully throwing these things out there is a very big problem.

Meanwhile, to top it all off, Teck Resources appears to be trolling some particular voices like Kenney who have been caterwauling the past few days, as they announced they are investing in a solar facility at a reclaimed coal mine in BC. Oh, the delicious, delicious irony of it all.

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