Roundup: Positive feelings about a useless meeting

We seem to be caught in a pattern where Donald Trump will invite a world leader to the White House—yesterday it was NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte—and he goes on an unhinged rant while they’re sitting there, trying to avoid saying anything that will set him off. And yesterday’s rant included a full-on threat to annex Greenland (while Rutte tried to downplay NATO’s involvement in any way, which is true to the extent that it only operates by consensus), and went on an extended rant about Canada not working as a real country, and made up the lie that America pays for our military (not true in the slightest), before repeating the falsehood that the US subsidizes us.

Meanwhile, Dominic LeBlanc and François-Philippe Champagne had their meeting with Howard Lutnick, with Doug Ford along for the ride as he continued to try and make himself the main character (and I watched Conservative talking head pundits also putting forward this distorted view of reality). Ford came out of the meeting, effusive about how “positive” it was and how they were going to have more meetings next week (and was later corrected that officials were going to meet, not him), while the two ministers basically talked a lot and said nothing, because nothing could be accomplished here. But they had to pretend that something came from this meeting when obviously nothing did, as there were no changes to any tariffs, and Ford’s pressure tactic around the electricity “surcharge” remains off the table again.

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lkc6vantcc2f

Elsewhere, Trump’s pick for US ambassador to Canada had his Senate confirmation hearing, and when asked, he said that Canada is a sovereign country, and tried to claim that Trump’s expansionist rhetoric is about “negotiation tactics,” but it certainly doesn’t seem to be. And yeah, he said the bare minimum to ensure that he wasn’t PNGed before he could even arrive in the country. Closer to home, Scott Moe continues to call for capitulation to China regarding their tariff fight, because of course he did, and claimed it was about protecting Quebec’s industries over Saskatchewan’s, except Quebec doesn’t really have much of an auto sector, but Moe’s brain is pretty smooth, after all.

Ukraine Dispatch

An overnight attack on Dnipro injured three women and damaged apartment buildings. Ukrainian forces are in retreat in parts of Kursk region, which means losing a bargaining chip in possible peace negotiations. And Putin has all kinds of conditions on a possible ceasefire, because he’s not serious, and Ukraine only went along with the plan to call his bluff.

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Roundup: Moving onto the dairy front

The trade war seemed slightly more stable yesterday as the reprieve on most goods seemed to be holding, but it took no time at all for Trump to start musing about new, invented grievances and irritants. The latest is the dairy sector, for which there are limits as to how much the US can export to Canada tariff-free, but again, Trump has blown this out of proportion in his own mind. And as a result, he threatened 250 percent tariffs on Canadian dairy…but we don’t really export to them, certainly not liquid milk in large part because of the Supply Management system, so that would have very little impact on our industry.

The thing that did have people worried was fresh news out of the New York Times that Trump’s annexation talk has moved into threats about tearing up boundary treaties, particularly around things like the Great Lakes and cross-border river systems, and moving into things like shared military operations and NORAD, and after the floated threats about the Five Eyes a couple of weeks ago, it’s hard to ignore any of these threats, and why there needs to be a very concerted effort by the government to make plans for how we’re going to deal with this once it happens, because we know that nothing is off the table with Trump any longer.

I’m generally not into White House drama, but following it becomes more necessary than I’d like to admit these days. To that end, here is a look at an explosive meeting in the Cabinet room where several cabinet secretaries unloaded on Elon Musk, which wound up reining him in (somewhat, for now). But oh, man, the absolute stupidity of what is happening in that administration is boggling. As well, here’s a look at how framing the Trump presidency through the lens of reality television helps to make some of the chaos make a little more sense.

https://twitter.com/josheakle/status/1898212255604568305

Ukraine Dispatch

After the US cut off military aid, including access to satellite imagery for Ukraine, Russia launched a major missile attack, which targeted energy infrastructure, killed four in the eastern town of Dobropillia, while another five died in attacks in the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian forces within Kursk region appear to be nearly surrounded by Russians, though there have been counteroffensives in the past few days. Ukrainian drones did attack the Kirishi refinery.

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Roundup: An ambush in the White House

It was an ambush. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to the White House, ostensibly to sign some kind of agreement around access to critical minerals in exchange for some kind of military support or security guarantees was a set-up for Trump and JD Vance to try and humiliate Zelenskyy in front of the cameras, with one of the reporters from Russian state outlet TASS in the room (who was removed at one point by the Secret Service, but it was obvious that someone in the White House arranged for him to be there). The whole video is sickening to watch.

While Trump and Vance started broadcasting this for their followers as a supposed sign of strength, and their lackeys and apologists broadcast Russian propaganda to justify it, word also started leaking out that Trump is planning on cutting off military aid to Ukraine for Zelenskyy’s supposed intransigence and lack of desire for peace, which is of course mendacious and part of the set-up.

In the wake of this, world leaders started tweeting their support for Zelenskyy and Ukraine, and this was probably the death knell of NATO as we know it. The one leader who has been silent is Keir Starmer, but he is also hosting a summit in London today about Ukraine and European security, which Justin Trudeau will also be attending.

Here are some hot takes from Tom Nichols and David Frum, while Philippe Lagassé has some additional thoughts on the situation.

Closer to home, in an interview with the Spectator, Trump took credit for Chrystia Freeland’s supposed “firing” (she was not fired), and said that Poilievre’s problem is that “he’s not a MAGA guy.” Which is true—Poilievre doesn’t have much of a coherent ideology, but he’s not MAGA. What he is, however, is someone who will say anything that he feels he needs to in order to attract the MAGA crowd to his banner, no matter how ridiculous it is, and he has no morals, ethics, or scruples about it. Poilievre jumped on this to declare that he’s “Canada First,” and later did tweet support for Zelenskyy and Ukraine, and immediately got roasted in the comments by his MAGA supporters for it. Funny what happens when you play with fire.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1895631503469449464

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones struck a medical facility, among other targets, in Kharkiv. The framework for a mineral agreement that Ukraine was supposed to sign with the Americans, before the ambush, contained a number of gaps around security or dispute resolution, before it turned out to be a sham.

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Roundup: Paying $85,000 for the privilege of being humiliated

As if that “big” meeting the premiers had with those mid-level White House officials who ended up trolling and humiliating them couldn’t get any worse, well, it did. It turns out, they paid a lobbyist connected with Don Jr. $85,000 to arrange said meeting, where they didn’t get properly briefed, and froze out the Canadian ambassador (who had a meeting in the White House with actual senior officials earlier that day) in the process.

Because I can’t do it justice, here’s more (full thread starts here):

I’m not sure that I can stress this enough—premiers have absolutely no business trying to conduct foreign negotiations. The federal government not only has been handling the situation, but they have told the premiers not to constantly react to everything coming from the Trump administration because it’s chaotic and incoherent, and then they went and tried to get their own meetings? Them meeting with senators and governors sure, I can understand, because they are more on their level as counterparts, but it’s also pretty useless in the current environment because Trump has absolutely everyone cowed.

I’m also going to point a finger at the media for emboldening these premiers because they keep saying things like “there’s a vacuum of leadership” at the federal level and so on, which is not the case. Trudeau is still on the job, even if he’s on his way out. Ministers are still doing their jobs. We have an ambassador in Washington doing her job. They have explicitly told the media that they are not going to react to everything for very good reason. There is no actual need for the premiers to step in and start freelancing. Doug Ford’s “Captain Canada” shtick was him positioning himself before an election, and thanks to uncritical media coverage, waaaaaaaay too many people fell for it. But the media needs people to light their hair on fire at every utterance, and the premiers have been only too happy to step in and fill that role, or to give the bootlicker position (because both sides!), and the federal government just winds up sidelining itself in the process. We’re handing Trump so many little wins because nobody can keep their powder dry.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone attack damaged port infrastructure in Odesa for a second day in a row. Another Russian drone pierced the outer shell of the Chernobyl nuclear plant, and while radiation levels are normal, there is a danger if power goes offline at the site for too long. Russians also claim to have taken control of two more settlements in Donetsk region.

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Roundup: A new tariff threat?

Surprising nobody except the most credulous, Donald Trump’s “thirty-day reprieve” has ended early with the announcement that he’s launching steel and aluminium tariffs today—allegedly—and that includes on Canada. Maybe. We’ll see. But he insists he’s serious about annexing Canada (while his national security advisor, being too cute by half, insists there are no plans to “invade” Canada, which is not what Trump has threatened). When asked about the comments in Paris, Justin Trudeau didn’t say anything, but senior officials (correctly) said they are waiting to see something in writing first, because they know that Trump says a lot of things.

Of course, since the start of the tariff threats, we have a bunch of people talking about west-east pipelines again, which has yet again led to a bunch of media outlets credulously retyping complete mythology about what happened with the pipeline in the first place, and taking Poilievre’s word for what happened, even though he’s once again bullshitting.

And of course, we’re also repeating the complete nonsense about the Liberals trying to “kill” the energy sector over the past nine years. But given that oil and gas production are at record levels, and royalties are churning out, it really doesn’t look like they succeeded (never mind that they bought a pipeline to ensure its competition, championed Keystone XL, and got a major LNG project on the west coast over the finish line). Yeah, they were really trying to kill the industry by doing all that. Can we have some adults in the conversation, please?

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine downed 67 out of 139 Russian drones overnight Friday, and 70 out of 151 drones overnight Saturday. Further drone attacks overnight Sunday started a fire in Kyiv and damaged houses in Sumy.

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Roundup: The threat of annexation is serious

Well, things got real again today, as Justin Trudeau told the audience at his Canada-US Economic Summit that Trump isn’t joking around with his talk of annexation, and that part of the reason why is access to our critical minerals. Trudeau apparently also talked about the need to mend fences with Mexico as well, which was apparently an oblique shot at Doug Ford, who has been trying to throw them under the bus rather than working with them to counter Trump. (Ford, meanwhile, disparaged the whole summit while on the campaign trail, because apparently, it’s stealing his thunder). There was also talk at the summit about pipelines, nuclear energy (and conservative shills who claim Trudeau is anti-nuclear are straight-up lying), and removing some of the federal-situated trade barriers around financial services regulations and procurement.

As the day went on, more details came out about those two calls that Trudeau had with Trump on Monday about the tariffs and the “reprieve” that was granted. Comments included that Trump was musing about breaking a 1908 boundary treaty, was dismissive of our contributions to NORAD, and listed off a litany of complaints. (Because “it’s all about fentanyl,” right?) It was also on this call that Trudeau apparently deduced that Trump hadn’t been briefed on the $1.3 billion border plan, but maybe that’s what you get when Trump refuses your calls for weeks while he plays gangster. (And he was also refusing the Mexican president’s calls as well, so this was not a Trudeau-specific snub).

So this is where things are at—the stakes are higher than we may want to admit (and certainly the head of the Canadian American Business Council doesn’t want to admit it and still believes this is just an offensive joke), but maybe this existential threat will help shake off the normalcy bias that has perpetuated a certain status quo. Nevertheless, the political landscape is shifting drastically right now, and it’s going to make for a very different election campaign than what everyone was counting on.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian guided bomb attack on Sumy region in the northeast killed three. Russians claim to have taken the settlement of Toretsk, but the Ukrainian brigade in the outskirts says they haven’t moved. International nuclear monitors are concerned that the number of attacks on the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant have increased.

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Roundup: Maligning legitimate Senate appointments

One of CBC’s worst reporters is back again with the “scandalous” news that the prime minister is preparing to fill all ten vacant Senate seats before he resigns, and the original title of the article was “Trudeau plans on stacking Senate before retiring: source” before it was toned down in an update. The framing that the prime minister—who is still the prime minister—is doing his job and filling these vacancies as he is constitutionally mandated to do, is somehow inappropriate or unfair, is wrong, and frankly, is well into the category of misinformation (which is probably why the headline got changed).

The story then quotes a single Conservative senator to claim that this is somehow illegitimate, which it’s not, and there is no counter voice from an expert. For the TV version of this story, said reporter got video of Andrew Scheer claiming it’s inappropriate and that the vacancies should be left until after an election, which is again false, and there was no counter. There was no proper acknowledgment that Trudeau won a series of confidence votes in December, and that gives him the constitutional right to make these appointments, but hey, then he couldn’t frame the story as this being somehow wrong or inappropriate, and the fact that he gets away with this is infuriating.

This particular reporter has a pattern when it comes to trying to gin up scandals around any appointments. When it’s with judges, he resorts to histrionics about appointees who made political donations in the past, as though the low campaign contribution limits in Canada allows one to buy influence or access, or that they somehow bribed their way into these appointments. With recent Senate appointments, he’s now judging what is and is not a partisan appointment given past history, ignoring that a) there is no Liberal caucus in the Senate for them to be a part of, and b) past legislative experience is actually a good thing to have in that Chamber, and that the lack of it with so many appointees has been a problem. But hey, the CBC editors let him get away with these self-imposed purity tests, so he’s going to keep on doing them. It’s a disservice to the country, and the gods damned public broadcaster shouldn’t be letting their reporters personal bugaboos dictate their coverage, particularly when it taints the reporting.

Ukraine Dispatch

An overnight air attack injured four in Kharkiv after houses were hit. Other critical infrastructure was damaged during overnight drone attacks on Sunday night, where 57 out of 104 drones were downed. Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery suspended operations after a Ukrainian drone attack last week. President Zelenskyy says that the realities of the current war means that they can’t change mobilisation rules as soldiers leaving for home en masse would mean Russians would “kill us all.”

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Roundup: Cabinet Shuttle Day today

Prime minister Justin Trudeau will be shuffling his Cabinet today, and you can bet that there are a whole lot of competing narratives about it. On the one hand, many of these appointments are necessary, because you currently have a few ministers who are doing double or triple duty with complex files, and they need to have some of the load taken off so that government can still operate smoothly, despite the political crisis around Trudeau’s political future. On the other hand, there is a sense that this is Trudeau buying time, that he’s trying to secure dissenting voices’ support, and that these carrots he’s been dangling can bear some fruit among a caucus who is turning against him. Then again, making the shuffle means he loses that last bit of leverage with backbenchers who are calling for his ouster, so we’ll see which narrative winds up winning.

The buzz is that David McGuinty will be getting public safety, which may be a good fit because he may be in a position to implement the recommendations made from the NSICOP reports that he helped author as chair of the committee (but it is also a loss for the said committee with his departure, and the loss of Senator Francis Lankin as the other longest-serving member). It also sounds like Nathaniel Erskine-Smith will get housing, on the proviso that he will run again in the next election after previously saying he was going to bow out, but I also suspect that this will be tough because he can no longer be the maverick truth-teller he was in the backbenches, and will have to follow the PMO line (though he may also prove an effective communicator on the file to counter Poilievre’s bullshit). There is also talk that Rachel Bendayan, Terry Duguid and Darren Fisher will also be getting positions.

Amidst this, the Globe and Mail is reporting on contradictory rumours about Trudeau’s thoughts on his political future—one source saying he’s ready to go and is figuring out his exit plan, another source saying that he’s determined to stay put, with a third source saying he was ready to go but that Dominic LeBlanc and Marc Miller talked him out of it, and that Katie Telford is ensuring that he hears from supporters and not dissenters. It remains a chaotic mess, but one can only hope that the first source is correct, and that he is trying to figure out an exit strategy, because his remaining in office is untenable.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile killed three and wounded three more in Kharkiv, while another missile hit a residence in Kryvyi Rih, injuring five. Russia also carried out a massive cyberattack on Ukrainian government registries.

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Roundup: The worst policy for retail politics reasons

With the smell of desperation lingering in the air, Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland announced a “GST holiday” for two months on all sorts of items—ready-made meals, children’s clothes, diapers, books, toys, beer, alcohol below a certain percentage, restaurant meals, you name it—to happen between December 15th and February 15th, to be followed by $250 cheques in April for anyone who worked in 2023 and whose household income is below $150,000 (so, not the top five percent of wage-earners).

It’s absolutely terrible economic policy, it’s poorly implemented (and is going to be an absolute nightmare all around to ensure implementation happens) it will benefit higher-income households disproportionately, and it’s not going to do any favours for the deficit situation that they insist they want to put on a downward trajectory, but it’s apparently good retail politics. (And good for the restaurant industry, particularly during their slower months, but a dog’s breakfast for retailers). Apparently, the Liberals are frustrated that all of their good work with the Canada Child Benefit, $10/day childcare, dental care and any incoming pharmacare deal with provinces (and not to mention rebounding faster from the pandemic and tacking inflation faster than any other comparator government) isn’t helping them in the polls, so they’re resorting to direct bribes, because reasons. It’s so stupid. We live in the stupidest times, and everyone is just going along with it.

Part of this was a sop to the NDP in the hopes that they would help end the filibuster in the House of Commons, but they’re not all that keen on that (as they are happy to watch the Liberals twist in the wind), and are talking about trying to push a programming motion to pass the bill with these promised tax changes in a single day, which is not terribly bright, and the government really, really needs to actually pass the capital gains changes, because they’re already being applied while the legislation has been held up by this filibuster. Can the government play hardball with the NDP to break the filibuster and send the privilege matter to committee? I guess we’ll wait and see.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia fired new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Dnipro on Tuesday, claiming to be in retaliation for long-range strikes inside Russian territory, hitting an industrial enterprise and a rehabilitation centre. (Curiously enough, a Russian spokeswoman was giving a briefing on the missiles when she was called mid-conference and told not to talk about them). Russia’s strikes over the weekend have badly damaged Ukraine’s largest private power producer, while Russians are now claiming they have taken the village of Dalne in eastern Ukraine.

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QP: Boissonnault out vs caucus muzzling

Fresh from his trips to Peru and Brazil, the prime minister was present for QP today, ready to respond to any and all questions, though his deputy was elsewhere. All of the other leaders were present, and just before QP started, it was announced that Randy Boissonnault was stepping away from Cabinet to “clear his name” from the various allegations against him. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and led off with the various salacious allegations against Boissonnault. Justin Trudeau noted that Boissonnault has left Cabinet to focus on the allegations, but the Conservatives only want to cut. Poilievre raised Jody Wilson-Raybould and tried to compare her to Boissonnault, and Trudeau noted that for a leader who claims to want the truth is muzzling his own caucus. Poilievre switched to English, gave a quip about doubling hosing prices and gun crimes, and up until a minute ago, had a minister with a “double identity,” and Trudeau again repeated the points about Poilievre muzzling his MPs rather than letting them advocate for their communities. Poilievre again tried compare Wilson-Raybould to Boissonnault, and Trudeau repeated that Poilievre won’t let his caucus talk because he’s afraid of what they are going to say about him. Poilievre retorted that twenty Liberals want Trudeau gone, and demanded an election. Trudeau said that MPs on his side were free to share their opinions unlike the other side.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, said this display proved why Quebec needs to be on its own, and then demanded that the government force the Senate to pass the Supply Management bill. Trudeau noted that his party was in favour of it, and demanded the prime minister personally meet with senators to get them to pass it, and Trudeau noted that he does meet with them often, but regardless, the government will protect the system.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, complained about the cost of living, and demanded the government support their economically illiterate GST cut plan. Trudeau said that if the NDP was so concerned about the cost of living, they would help the government break the Conservative obstruction in the Chamber. Singh repeated the demand in French, and Trudeau repeated his same response. 

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