Roundup: Internet troll and wide-eyed naïf

The occupation leaders started their turn to testify at the Emergencies Act committee yesterday, and it’s quite an interesting picture that they are painting of themselves. Chris Barber, for example, admits to being a racist internet troll who “saw the light” thanks to all of the love and hugs during the occupation (sure, Jan), but also tried to present himself as this wide-eyed naïf who couldn’t possibly understand the MOU about overthrowing the government, or who believed all the honking was just these truckers being excited. Yeah, so believable. There were, apparently, power struggles between the different groups and organisers, and things started to spiral out of their control. Gosh, you think? And when Barber was presented with an email with an assassination threat targeting Chrystia Freeland, he insisted he had no knowledge of this—because, you know, it was all peace and love. (Credit to Shannon Proudfoot for the troll/naïf descriptor).

Elsewhere, Doug Ford’s lawyers were at Federal Court to argue that the rule of law would be “irreparably harmed” if Ford and Sylvia Jones were forced to testify at the public inquiry or deal with any subsequent contempt proceedings, which…is a bit much. The judge in the case noted that the parliamentary privilege relates to criminal and civil courts, but does not specify public inquiries (because the basis of the privilege stems from a time when the Crown controlled the courts). Said judge also said he expects to have a decision by November 8th, which is two days before Ford and Jones are supposed to testify at the inquiry.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 252:

Russian authorities in occupied territories have ordered the evacuation of civilians in an area near Kherson, which the Ukrainian government considers a forced depopulation, which is a war crime. Russians also fired missiles into an apartment building in the port city of Mykolaiv, and have destroyed about 40 percent of the country’s energy infrastructure as winter approaches.

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QP: The King of Canada shouldn’t be a difficult concept

Both the prime minister and his deputy were away, but every other leader was present, for better or ill today. Pierre Poilievre led off in French as he usually does, and said that the government added $100 billion to the national debt before COVID, and $500 billion before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and that he added more to the national debt than any prime minister in history, which is pretty selective about the circumstances of what happened during that time period, like, oh, a global pandemic. He blamed inflation on this spending, which is not true, then raised the reports that Chrystia Freeland has given orders to reign in spending, and wondered how they can trust the people who caused inflation to fix it, which again, completely misrepresents the facts. Rachel Bendayan reminded him that Canada has the lowest debt and deficit of all G7 countries, and that they have a budget that will cut spending by $9 billion, while maintaining the strongest growth in the G7 while the Conservatives play petty political games, and praised the government for bringing Moderna to Montreal, which was an odd non sequitur. Poilievre repeated the question in English, with a bit of added self-congratulation, before Mark Holland asked what supports the Conservatives would have not offered to Canadians during the pandemic, and called out their amplifying anxieties before demanding they support dental care and rental supports. Poilievre said they would have cut ArriveCan or WE Charity, and not given money to profitable companies, before he recited some nonsense about inflation. Holland disputed that inflation is a problem only facing Canada, which is not true, before again demanding support for affordability measures. Poilievre insisted that countries who printed money all have high inflation, but countries like Switzerland who didn’t don’t have the same issue, which is a pretty selective reading of the facts. Holland noted that we are dealing with unprecedented times, which demands maturity and serious answers, and offered a sanctimonious request for the opposition to let their affordability measures go to a vote. Poilievre was incredulous, saying that only 0.3% of Canada’s trade is with Russia and Ukraine combined, so that they couldn’t possibly be contributing to inflation—which is possibly the dumbest gods damned leaps in logic I have ever heard. Holland accused the Conservatives of not supporting people who need it.

Yves-François Blanchet got up to claim that there is a debate about pledging allegiance to the “King of England,” worried that the federal government would interfere with Quebec’s secularism law, and then demanded to know who the head of state is in Canada. David Lametti noted that the oath of allegiance is part of the constitution and that courts have said that this is not an oath to the person, but the institutions. He did not, however, say that the King of Canada is our sovereign. Blanchet again demanded to know who the head of state is, and Pablo Rodriguez got up to rip that the Bloc don’t care about the issues of the day, but only about their pensions.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and in French, demanded that the government support their plan to help people, to which Rachel Bendayan recited the measures the government has taken and pleaded for support for the other measures. Singh switched to English to decry a possible Rogers-Shaw merger, and demanded that the government oppose it. Andy Fillmore read a statement about ensuring that consumers are protected.

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Roundup: The drivers of food price inflation

The September inflation numbers were released yesterday morning, and they are still cooling, but not quite by as much as anticipated, in part because food price inflation continues to stay high. While the temptation to conclude that this is entirely the fault of the grocery oligopoly engaged in price gouging, and boy howdy are the NDP trying to make this a Thing, we know from the economic data that it’s not actually the case. And it doesn’t take too much digging to know what some of the drivers of this food price inflation really are:

  • For cereal and bakery products, that’s because the drought on the Prairies destroyed 40 percent of crop yields last year
  • The blight known as “coffee rust” is affecting those crops, and is in large part because of monoculture
  • Drought has also taken out things like the chilis necessary for things like sriracha sauce, or the mustard crops used in condiments
  • Fresh fruit and vegetables are, again, susceptible to droughts in places like California, or the hurricanes that struck Florida
  • Fish and seafood are facing collapsing stocks, which again, drives up prices, and some harvesting seasons have been impacted by hurricanes
  • Dairy and meat has seen higher input costs (again, drought taking out feed crops) and avian flu ravaging poultry flocks is also driving up prices

As you can see, climate change is a big driver for most of these. Our food production is very vulnerable to it, and that is causing a lot of these price increases, and we need to be aware of that and stop couching it euphemisms about “inclement weather” or the like.

Meanwhile, Chrystia Freeland has told her Cabinet colleagues that they need to keep their spending priorities in check, and if they want higher spending, they need to be prepared to find savings in their departments to pay for them. While we have seen that the government’s fiscal stance is already pretty tight, Freeland needs to manage expectations right now—if we do go into a recession, the government can’t keep up the same supports they did during the pandemic, and broad spending programmes could wind up fuelling inflation and undoing the work the Bank of Canada is doing to tame it. It’s unlikely to really blunt any of the attacks from the opposition, and Poilievre in particular because he’ll just make up more nonsense that sounds like economics but is just bullshit, and certain people will spoon it up and legacy media will both-sides it, but regardless, Freeland looks to be steering the Liberals back on a course toward the brand of fiscal prudence and away from trying to capture more of the left, but perhaps that’s because they have put a mark in that territory with things like childcare and know that there are voters at the centre that the Conservatives are abandoning that they would rather pick up instead. Either way, it’s an interesting move.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 238:

As Russians continue to bomb power stations around the country, Ukrainians are facing rolling blackouts. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called out the Iranians for accepting “blood money” for these drone.  Meanwhile, Putin has declared martial law in the four occupied territories in Ukraine, giving his Russian regional governors emergency powers to enact new restrictions.

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Roundup: Smith disqualifies herself on day one

Her first day on the job, and Danielle Smith is already proving to be unsuited for public office. Shortly after being sworn-in as premier by the Lieutenant Governor, Smith held a press conference where she said that she wants to protect the unvaccinated, because they are the “most discriminated-against” group in her lifetime.

*deep breath, clenches fists*

No. Not even close. And let me tell you, it was a choice to say that on Coming Out Day. They are not discriminated against. There is no “segregation.” The unvaccinated are people who get to live with the consequences of making a selfish choice based on a bunch of junk “science” and conspiracy theories that they’ve consumed, and their reckless disregard for the vulnerable and immune-compromised. Those consequences? Not eating in restaurants or not getting to travel. A few lost their jobs because of the choice they made. Contrast this to actual discrimination that people suffer because of race, gender, sexuality, or disability. Consequences that include employment, housing, hate crimes, and even mass slaughter, and yes, this has all happened in Smith’s lifetime. This is her answering the grievances of the privileged, the entitled, and the selfish, and not having actually suffered discrimination, she lacks the basic self-awareness to know the difference between the two. This should be disqualifying.

Meanwhile, in Saskatchewan, Scott Moe unveiled his “white paper” on pushing back against so-called federal encroachment on the province, and well, I’ve read far more vigorous undergraduate papers in my day. The premise of said paper is that all environmental rules and regulations are just a ruse for keeping the province down, and controlling them, which is risible on its face. And the notion that Saskatchewan should somehow be a “nation within a nation” belies the fact that they don’t have a distinct language, culture, legal tradition, or pre-Confederation history. Calling hoodies “bunny hugs” is not a distinct culture. Resource extraction without concern for environmental consequences is not a distinct culture. Moe is doing some bad Jason Kenney cosplay, and it’s just pathetic.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1579907251221172224

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1579907677316345856

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 230:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with G7 leaders and asked for more air defences (to fend off future missile attacks like they faced this week), a price cap on oil and gas exports from Russia to cut off their funding, and an international mission at the Ukraine-Belarus border, presumably to keep any Belarussian forces out of the country. Some German air defence systems did arrive in the country yesterday, so they are starting to arrive as this ask is being made. Meanwhile, bodies are being exhumed from the mass graves outside of the city of Lyman, which was liberated from Russian occupation.

https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1579849665226629121

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Roundup: The PM is staying put this year

It is the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation, otherwise known as “Orange Shirt Day,” after Phyllis Jack Webstad told the story about going to residential school with a new orange shirt that she was so proud of, and was forced to remove it upon arrival, which became a symbol of her forced assimilation that the school enforced. Something to reflect on over the day.

It also sounds like the prime minister has learned his lesson about his visibility, and whereas his intention last year was to step back and not make it about himself, he spent the day heading to Tofino for a weekend off with his family, which became a minor scandal. So today he’ll be attending ceremonies and events both in the Niagara Region, as well as here in Ottawa, and conspicuously not taking off with his family.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 218:

Russia is claiming to recognise the “independence” of two of the regions in Ukraine subjected to sham referendums this past week, as a prelude to annexation. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in response, has made a direct appeal to Russians that they don’t have to die in Ukraine, like 58,000 have so far, and called on ethnic minorities in Russia to resist mobilization. Further north to those regions, Ukrainian forces have nearly encircled the city of Lyman, and are preparing to trap Russian forces therein. One of Zelenskyy’s advisors says that the sham referendums change nothing, and that they will liberate those territories, with military force if necessary. Meanwhile, Ukrainian children are trapped in Russian camps after promoting them as a summer break for children in occupied territories, so that’s going well.

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Roundup: Gatherings in advance of the funeral

As Canadian officials were in London over the weekend in advance of the Queen’s funeral, a number of meetings took place between the prime minister and King Charles III, and the King also met with the Governors General of the Realms. Trudeau also met with the new UK prime minister, Liz Truss and other world leaders, while back at Canada House, Mary May Simon invested Stephen Harper into the Order of Canada, while former prime ministers and Governors General took some time together.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 207:

While the counter-offensive remains paused to allow supply lines to catch up and the units to recuperate, discoveries continue in cities and villages recently liberated. Beyond the mass grave found in Izyum, torture chambers have been found in Kozacha Lopan near the border. Russian forces continue to target civilian infrastructure, and have stepped up attacks since being forced from recently liberated areas. Meanwhile, Kharkiv is celebrating Pride, which is an accomplishment in a country still largely hostile to LGBTQ+ rights, as they are being invaded by a country that has been weaponising homophobia.

https://twitter.com/maksymeristavi/status/1570891880178786304

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Roundup: The Convoy Party of Canada

The CBC did the work of comparing the names on the leaked GiveSendGo data around donations to the occupation of Ottawa from back in February and compared it to the publicly available donor database from the Conservative leadership campaign, and lo, there was a lot of overlap, to the tune of $460,000 from 3,100 donors to both (a likely underestimate as they ignored close names and postal codes), and most of that went to Pierre Poilievre’s campaign. A lot of these names had never donated federally before, which shows that the occupation has galvanised a political movement. Now, this was only 4.2 percent of the donors to the leadership overall, but this gives you a sense of why Poilievre has decided to give up on the political centre and focus his hopes on these fringe elements who had previously been disaffected, hoping that they will be what is able to push him over the edge in the next election.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1570804839663415296

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1570805416250187776

This was something that I discussed with Stephanie Carvin in a previous video we did, and wrote a column about—this kind of political movement is catnip to parties, and they will try and ride this tiger in order to benefit from it, either in votes or donations. But that’s the thing about riding the tiger, is that almost all of the time, you can’t actually do it, and it will turn around eat you, and that’s exactly what Poilievre has risked his entire political party to do. And rest assured, a fringe group who are not rational actors will be very hard to control, and they risk easily turning on him when they find out that he can’t do most of the things he promised them he would, or that his economic theories are based on utter nonsense, and that his entire platform is built on a foundation of sand. We watched this happen when the Republicans in the US embraced the Tea Party, and it drove them further to extremism and to Donald Trump. Justin Ling details that, and other examples, in this op-ed, and the fact that Poilievre and his camp believe they’re cleverer than all of those other parties who tried to embrace the fringe and were consumed by it. That’s probably the most chilling part, because Poilievre is certainly not cleverer, and he has a higher opinion of himself and his abilities than anyone who has watched him for any length of period would see. Jason Kenney also suffers from the same affliction, and look where it got him. We are entering into dangerous territory.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 205:

Attention in the conflict remains on the discovery of the mass graves in Izium, where more have been discovered, and many with hands tied behind their backs and showing signs of mistreatment before they were killed. Meanwhile, it has been decided that president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s wife, Olena Zelenska, will travel to London for the Queen’s funeral.

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Roundup: Poilievre on the first ballot

Not unexpectedly, Pierre Poilievre won the Conservative leadership race quite handily on the first ballot, with some sixty-eight percent of the vote, and winning the point share in about 300 of the 338 ridings around the country. This is going to be declared “decisive,” and that it will force the caucus to rally around him, but I have some doubts, particularly as you had MPs who were openly questioning their future in the party under a Poilievre win. We’ll see where they go in the coming weeks, but Poilievre is already making some backroom changes, including replacing the board of the party’s fundraising arm—because replacing the entire party machinery with loyalists is one way to ensure that the membership is stymied from holding you to account in the future (and yes, the Liberals are most especially guilty of this after Trudeau oversaw the party’s constitution be replaced with one dedicated to total control by the leader’s office). We’ll also see who he picks for his front-bench.

As for what this means moving to the next election, there is a lot of doubt that Poilievre is going to “pivot to the centre,” because he doesn’t think he can win there. He is likely to try and get more votes from the far-right, and access votes from there by appealing to them in various ways, as he has explicitly done so far, whether it was supporting the occupation in Ottawa, or playing along with conspiracy theories like those around the World Economic Forum. You’re going to have a lot of talking heads bring up that “300 ridings!” figure to show that he somehow has support across the country, when that is a massive sample selection bias, which shows that he knows how to organize small numbers nationally, but says nothing about the broader public. And while this thread from Justin Ling is good to read, I will echo his caution that calling Poilievre a “white supremacist” plays into his hands—his wife is from Venezuela, his children are mixed-race, and if the media tries the narrative on him, he will eviscerate them for it, while reminding everyone yet again about Trudeau’s history of Blackface. His opponents can’t play the game he wants them to play, but we’ll see if they have the capacity or ability. As for media, well, I suspect they will continue to keep both-sidesing his lies, and he’ll keep beating up on them, and on and on it goes.

For pundit reaction, Aaron Wherry remarks on Poilievre’s vow to remain as loud and antagonistic a populist as possible, and how he has been willing to undermine the institutions of democracy his whole careers. Jen Gerson considers Poilievre’s win the death knell of moderate conservatism in Canada, but it’s less a question of policy than of temperament. Althia Raj buys into the notion that Poilievre’s caucus will be more united, which frees up energy to fight the Liberals. Chantal Hébert believes that Poilievre’s victory will convince Trudeau to stay on for the next election, believing that he can’t let Poilievre win.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 200:

The counter-offensive, particularly in the north-eastern part of Ukraine, has been advancing at a rapid pace, and Russians are fleeing with minimal resistance, leaving a lot of weapons and ammunition behind. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy put out a video mocking the Russian retreat, saying that it’s showing their best side. Further south, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant has now been completely shut down in order to prevent a nuclear catastrophe as shelling continues in the region. Meanwhile, in Sloviansk, in Donetsk province, continues to see artillery attacks as Russian forces try to take the entire Donbas region. While the counter-attack is a positive sign, it is likely that the conflict will continue for some time, with the added complication that Western allies are starting to run out of inventory to donate to the effort, and everyone needs to beware of what Putin may do when he feels like he’s been backed into a corner.

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Roundup: Charles III’s first address

King Charles III made his first public address in his new role, and like his mother before him, pledged to serve for as long as he lives (sorry fantasists who think he’ll abdicate in favour of William). And this was addressed not only to the UK, but also to all of the realms where he is also King, and to the rest of the Commonwealth as well, even if he is not their head of state.

More of the ceremonial aspects of the transition takes place today, from the Accession Council in the UK, to the meeting of the Privy Council at Rideau Hall, where the Canadian Cabinet will make the accession declaration for the King of Canada.

https://twitter.com/Gray_Mackenzie/status/1568435618304098305

Meanwhile, I cannot get over the fact that Canadian media outlets cannot get the basic civics straight in the fact that Elizabeth II was the Queen of Canada, and Charles III is the King of Canada. The CBC in particular continues to treat the monarchy as a foreign curiosity rather than the very centre of our constitutional order. Occasionally they will cite that the Queen was Canada’s head of state, which is only true on a technicality, and outlets like The Canadian Press are making similar declarations. We’re a constitutional monarchy. I don’t know why this seems to be so difficult for mainstream media outlets to process and relay correctly. There should be no excuse for it, and yet when it matters, they are simply unable—or unwilling—to present the facts as they exist. It’s no wonder we’re in such trouble.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 198:

The Ukrainian counter-offensive continues to make slow and steady progress on various fronts, but that hasn’t stopped Russians from shelling cities like Bakhmut in the east, or Kharkiv in the north. Shelling also continues around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which continues to be on emergency power to run its cooling systems because repairs cannot be made to the power lines connecting it to the grid so long as the shelling continues. The International Atomic Energy Agency continues to call for a “safety zone” around the plant, but we know how well Russia abides by agreements.

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Roundup: The Queen is dead. Long live the King.

The Queen is dead. Long live the King.

With the passing of the Queen, Charles immediately has ascended to the throne as Charles III, as you do in a monarchy. Because of the continuity of the Crown as a corporation sole, everything carries on as it was, with a few cosmetic changes as all of the references to the Queen in legislation and in offices and institutions transition to references to King, all done automatically thanks to legislative instruments like the Interpretation Act.

  • Here is a BBC royal correspondent’s look back at the Queen’s life.
  • Philippe Lagassé lays out the legal matters of succession in Canada.
  • Anne Twomey explains the Queen’s use of soft power in the Australian context, where she had more power than she let on.
  • From the archives, Susan Delacourt spoke with former prime ministers and Governors General about their time spent with the Queen.
  • The Queen’s image will remain on coins and banknotes for years to come, and would be phased out gradually as new coins and bills enter circulation.

 

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 198:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukrainian forces have liberated over 1000 square kilometres of territory since the counter-attacks began on September 1st, but information is still hard to come by.

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