Roundup: More Macklem misquotes

I’m going to revisit more of Tiff Macklem’s appearance at the Commons finance committee, because things he said were being taken wildly out of context in Question Period yesterday, and we all have an obligation to call out egregious bullshit when we hear it. For example, when Macklem admits that stimulus may have been applied for too long, nobody knew if it was safe to withdraw it yet and they were operating on best guesses and advice from observers, and more to the point, the Bank was also engaged in forward guidance, and they needed  a cycle to wind that back before raising rates, otherwise they risked damaging their reputation as doing what they way they’re going to. This is a very important consideration for a central bank. As well, the questions about the level of spending during the height of the pandemic and whether that led to more inflationary stimulus ignores that it was impossible to better target supports like CERB because the government and its IT structure had no real ability to do that. That’s why the used the CRA’s system to kludge together CERB as quickly as they did—there wasn’t an ability to be more targeted (even though it was temporary). Trying to elicit quotes to blame the government for inflation is both cheap and intellectually dishonest, but that’s pretty much par for the course these days.

Meanwhile, former governor Stephen Poloz told an audience at Western that the economy is much more sensitive to interest rate hikes than it was ten years ago, so we should start seeing inflation start to fall shortly, but he also stated that it will only get part of the job done, so other policy action will be needed to get inflation back to its target zone. This said, Poloz also says that it’s impossible to say if rates were hiked too much over a short period, because as we should know by now, inflation can move about 18 months later than the rate changes happens, so stay tuned.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 275:

As Russian bombing of critical infrastructure continue, people in Kyiv are collecting rainwater to survive, while Kherson is facing renewed attacks. Russia is openly admitting to these attacks now, claiming it’s about disrupting military command and control and stopping the flow of ammunition, never mind that they’re openly admitting to war crimes as they do.

Continue reading

Roundup: Auditor General day passes with little notice

The Auditor General released a series of reports yesterday, but you almost wouldn’t know it from the dearth of coverage. Yes, The Canadian Press did cover them, and CBC did somewhat, but most of those stories were not headline news, and barely made a splash. The reports didn’t come up in QP save for two NDP questions near the back third of the exercise, and Power & Politics gave it seconds worth of mention in their “five things” segment (while they also spent three blocks on their Power Panel, a block on their ridiculous “Quote of the Day,” and ran the segment on Donald Trump’s pending announcement twice). Power Play did slightly better by actually having the Auditor General on to discuss the reports, but gave her a mere 3 minutes and 42 seconds of airtime, and only a couple of the items actually got mention.

The reports:

  • We don’t know if the federal government’s plan to reduce chronic homeless by 50 percent by 2028 is working because they don’t have enough actual data.
  • Indigenous Services’ handling disasters like fires and floods remains reactive rather than proactive, even though this has been highlighted for a decade now.
  • Federal departments need to do more to ensure secure storage on cloud servers given the rising threat of cyberattacks (which is pretty alarming, really).
  • Our aging aircraft and icebreakers mean we can’t effectively monitor Arctic waters, and there are no plans to replace RADARSAT capabilities by 2026.

Is any of this earth-shattering? Maybe not, but it’s still important and a big part of the way we’re supposed to be holding the government to account, which should be important. There was once upon a time, not that long ago, when Auditor General Day was a big deal in the spring and the fall, and it was a media circus. And now? It barely makes a dent in the news cycle. It’s a pretty sad indictment of where we’re at in terms of our national political media, and how little we’re paying attention to the things that are supposed to matter.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 266:

Russia fired a large number of cruise missiles at civilian infrastructure throughout Ukraine, and throughout this, a pair of missiles appear to have crossed into Poland and struck a farm near the border, killing two people. While everything is being verified that these were in fact Russian missiles (and not, for example, Ukrainian missiles that missed intercepting the Russian missiles), NATO leaders are thus far keeping cool and trying to keep the situation cool, but this is almost entirely unlikely to trigger Article 5. Instead, it’s likely to trigger Article 4, and ramping up their investment into giving more equipment to Ukraine faster, including the plan from Poland to deliver its old MiG fighters to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1592647150504407042

Continue reading

Roundup: Don’t just rely on the federal government

While at a feel-good announcement yesterday about the enhanced GST rebates going out to Canadians, Justin Trudeau told reporters that he was weighing “all options” on what to do about Doug Ford’s pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding Clause, though federal options are extremely limited because it is a legitimate constitutional power under certain circumstances, and doing anything about that would require a constitutional amendment, which if Quebec or Ontario are not on board with, would be dead in the water. And disallowance is likely a Pandora’s box of federal-provincial warfare, which limits options.

Trudeau also said that Canadians themselves need to stand up to provinces using this power rather than waiting for the federal government to intervene (as the pre-emptive use pretty much rules out the courts becoming involved), because we shouldn’t underestimate the power of popular discontent—particularly for someone like Doug Ford, who doesn’t like it when people are mad at him. The powers are being invoked by populists who think they can get away with it by pandering to baser instincts, and of people put sustained pressure on those governments to let them know that no, using these powers are not okay, that could force them to back off, but that means actual sustained pressure, and not just the kinds of slactivism that we have become accustomed to. That is the kind of democratic power that still exists and holds sway, and we shouldn’t discount it.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 255:

Russian authorities in occupied Kherson continue to attempt to evacuate civilians from the city, moving them deeper into Russian-occupied territory, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warns that Russia could be laying a trap to ensnare Ukrainian forces into intense urban warfare. Zelenskyy also said that Ukrainian forces have been holding their positions around Bakhmut and Soledar in the Donetsk region, while Russians send more troops into the “meat grinder.”

https://twitter.com/AnitaAnandMP/status/1588684951381508097

Continue reading

Roundup: Sloly, Day Two

It was another firehose of news out of the Emergencies Act public inquiry for the second day of former Ottawa police chief Peter Sloly’s testimony. Sloly lashed out at RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki and then-Public Safety minister Bill Blair for not giving him the resources he needed, even though they were reluctant to give over resources without any kind of coherent plan in place (which is, frankly, reasonable), nor was Sloly following proper procedure for requesting additional resources under the Ontario policing legislation. Sloly also repeatedly contradicted documentary evidence, and attributed attacks against him to be rumours. There was some pretty disturbing stuff about how Navigator was involved in the decision-making, and how they were essentially testing how different parts of the city would react to actions to clear the occupation, which is a really, really questionable way for police to make decisions about how they’re upholding laws.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1587096886388969472

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1587231274640490496

Meanwhile, we also got a look at the “intelligence” that the occupation was operating on, as a self-styled “expert” compiled these reports for organisers which are replete with fanciful notions of the Trudeau government trying to make this a Tiananmen Square-style event to crush dissenters. No, seriously. Other documents show that the RCMP union felt the decision to allow the trucks to park near Parliament Hill represented an unacceptable risk, and how they were preparing to respond to the request for their services. Other texts tabled with the inquiry show Marco Mendicino’s office trying to come up with a communications strategy before the convoy arrived and began the occupation.

Elsewhere, Doug Ford goes to court today to try and keep from testifying at the public inquiry. Justice Rouleau, who leads the inquiry, is seeking to have that application dismissed, saying that Ford is overstating his parliamentary privilege to avoid having to testify. But while Ford claims he’s too busy to testify, he spent yesterday putting out folksy pumpkin-carving videos, so yeah, that’s going to be a problem.

https://twitter.com/dgardner/status/1587114402851033091

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 251:

More heavy Russian bombardment of Kyiv has cut most power and water in the city, as the plan to try and demoralise the capital continues. Other cities were hit as well, and one missile that the Ukrainians shot down fell into a border city in Moldova, though no casualties resulted. Russia is claiming retaliation for attacks on their ships in the Black Sea, though Ukraine denies attacking them.

Continue reading

Roundup: Sloly’s first day at the inquiry

It was the first of two days that former Ottawa police chief Peter Sloly took the stand at the Emergencies Act public inquiry, and, well, ooooof. The man did not acquit himself or his actions very well. He blamed the media for the perception that the police weren’t doing anything (erm, they weren’t), he defended the belief that the occupation would end in two or three days, he praised the officer who fed him the widely discredited Rex Murphy-sourced intelligence, and generally insisted that everyone was doing the best job that they could, but wow. Oh, and then he got emotional and teary at the end about how the situation that he allowed to escalate got to be too much. No, seriously.

https://twitter.com/robert_hiltz/status/1586011336987009029

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1586075397212770304

 

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 248 (because apparently, I lost a day somewhere):

Kyiv is facing increasing blackouts as a result of increased Russian attacks on electrical infrastructure. Russian forces continue to shell Bakhmut, in the hopes that it could open the way to hitting other strongholds in the Donetsk region, and that it could blunt the advance on the southern city of Kherson, which itself is a gateway to Crimea.

Good reads:

  • Justin Trudeau unveiled a new five-year bond-buying programme for Canadians to support Ukraine financially, along with new sanctions on Russians.
  • Chrystia Freeland announced that the Fall Economic Statement will be delivered on November 3rd (just before the constituency week, so they can fan out to sell it).
  • As of August, the federal government was still in a surplus position.
  • The federal government is moving to restrict the involvement of foreign state-own enterprises in the critical minerals sector.
  • Health Canada is looking to hire an external company to process dental claims in a standalone federal insurance programme rather than involving the provinces.
  • In advance of the COP27 meeting in Egypt, developed nations haven’t stepped up to meet climate finance goals, and Canada may be asked to do more.
  • The Supreme Court of Canada struck down elements of the mandatory registration to the federal sex offender registry in all cases, restoring judicial discretion.
  • MPs on the Heritage committee pushed back at Meta’s threat to remove news content from Facebook if they go ahead with the online news bill.
  • Premiers are huffing and puffing at the news that Trudeau is looking to play hard ball with them on future health care transfers.
  • It looks like Doug Ford was happy to participate in the public inquiry back in June, but has now changed his tune and lawyered up to avoid having to testify.
  • Susan Delacourt ruminates on how politicians have dealt with defeat, and whether some rebounds are more of a sign of workaholism.
  • Justin Ling goes through the public inquiry documents to confirm that yes, there were concerns about weapons in the occupation, and firearms charges were laid.
  • My weekend column on the facile inflation narratives coming from the opposition, and the inability of the government to call it out.

Odds and ends:

Governor General Mary May Simon’s Coat of Arms was revealed yesterday.

Want more Routine Proceedings? Become a patron and get exclusive new content.

Roundup: Taking the blame, children’s cold medicine edition

There has been a concerted effort to try and make the shortage of over-the-counter children’s cold and fever medication the federal government’s problem, even though they have precious few levers at their disposal. The Conservatives are trying to demand that Health Canada lift restrictions on imports that aren’t labelled in English and French, though I’m not sure that would really help if these shortages (which are due to high demand because COVID isn’t over!) are more widespread, and even there, that would require a lot of provincial coordination because pharmacies are also under provincial jurisdiction. But apparently the minister can’t just say that people need to talk to the provinces—that simply won’t do.

I had a bit of a debate over Twitter about this last night, and I will concede that part of this is a problem with the government’s inability to message and get ahead of these kinds of issues, or leverage some righteous anger and direct it to the provinces to do their gods damned jobs for once—but this government doesn’t like to do anger, and it really doesn’t like to blame the provinces for the things that the provinces aren’t doing when they should be, because they want to be “nice,” and “cooperative,” and “not divisive.” But that’s not helping anybody, and so we get more platitudes and feel-good pabulum that doesn’t actually make anyone feel good. I do have real problems with everyone—particularly media—trying to make every problem the federal government’s, but the government need to get better at messaging around this tendency, which they steadfastly refuse to do.

 

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 224:

As Russia’s president signed papers that purport to annex territory in Ukraine, Ukrainian forces continue to press ahead in their counter-offensive in both the east and the south, collapsing Russian lines even further. And those new troops Russia has been conscripting to send to Ukraine? Much of them come from the country’s ethnic minorities, which is a calculated move. Ukraine, meanwhile, is making a bid for the 2030 FIFA World Cup as a way of survivors of the invasion healing from the war.

Continue reading

Roundup: The PM is staying put this year

It is the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation, otherwise known as “Orange Shirt Day,” after Phyllis Jack Webstad told the story about going to residential school with a new orange shirt that she was so proud of, and was forced to remove it upon arrival, which became a symbol of her forced assimilation that the school enforced. Something to reflect on over the day.

It also sounds like the prime minister has learned his lesson about his visibility, and whereas his intention last year was to step back and not make it about himself, he spent the day heading to Tofino for a weekend off with his family, which became a minor scandal. So today he’ll be attending ceremonies and events both in the Niagara Region, as well as here in Ottawa, and conspicuously not taking off with his family.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 218:

Russia is claiming to recognise the “independence” of two of the regions in Ukraine subjected to sham referendums this past week, as a prelude to annexation. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in response, has made a direct appeal to Russians that they don’t have to die in Ukraine, like 58,000 have so far, and called on ethnic minorities in Russia to resist mobilization. Further north to those regions, Ukrainian forces have nearly encircled the city of Lyman, and are preparing to trap Russian forces therein. One of Zelenskyy’s advisors says that the sham referendums change nothing, and that they will liberate those territories, with military force if necessary. Meanwhile, Ukrainian children are trapped in Russian camps after promoting them as a summer break for children in occupied territories, so that’s going well.

Continue reading

Roundup: Trying to dispel yet another conspiracy theory

It was Environment Canada’s turn to take to Twitter in a series of plain-language tweets in order to dispel the conspiracy theories that Justin Trudeau is creating “climate cops” that are going to arrest people for…reasons. They’re not climate cops, they’re Environment Canada enforcement officers, they’ve been in existence since 2008 (you know, when Stephen Harper was prime minister), and they enforce environmental regulations. The theory, which seems to have originated from a far-right former Rebel fabulist, has been broadcast by UCP leadership hopeful Danielle Smith and several sitting Conservative MPs, and it’s utterly bonkers. It’s even more concerning that MPs are willingly spreading conspiracy theories in order to keep up the rage-farming that they think will get them votes, and that they have absolutely zero self-awareness that this is utterly corroding democracy. None.

Meanwhile, Conservative has-been and ongoing shitposter Andrew Scheer is trying to discredit the Bank of Canada’s correction about the false narrative of “printing money,” using the same kind of faux-logic that Flat-Earthers use. So yeah, the discourse is going great. They’re really respecting democracy. (We’re doomed).

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 190:

The International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors arrived at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant for real this time, and conducted their initial inspection of the facility, with the intention to remain on the site, and yes, they avoided shelling and gunfire to get there. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that independent journalists were prevented from covering the visit, which allows Russia to present a one-sided picture.

Continue reading

Roundup: A better than anticipated fiscal picture

The Department of Finance’s fiscal monitor was released yesterday, showing that for the first quarter of the 2022-23 fiscal year, the government ran a $10.2 billion surplus, which is not a big surprise considering that the economy is overheated, and that’s generating a lot of revenues, particularly with high oil prices. Of course, this comes with the caveat that Q4 tends to book a lot of the expenses and liabilities that drag the figure down at the end of the fiscal year, but it’s a promising sign, and it’s certainly showing that all of the wailing and gnashing of teeth about the government’s spending and deficit has been largely for naught, and that maybe Chrystia Freeland is a better fiscal steward than they think she is.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1563202103186968576

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1563231824935292929

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1563233131280629764

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1563249022860935168

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 184:

As overnight shelling continued near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, people in the vicinity have been issued iodine tablets in the event that there is a catastrophic failure and containment is breached, releasing radiation. So that’s cheery.

Continue reading

Roundup: Questions for the new SCC justice

The parliamentary hearings around Justice Michelle O’Bonsawin’s appointment took place yesterday, which were the usual awkward affair that these things tend to be, as they’re mostly a get-to-know-you exercise where you can’t really ask too many substantive questions, and as is so often the case with our parliament these days, it was full of self-congratulation of MPs and senators who were so proud to be there for this historic moment. A lot of media outlets picked up on O’Bonsawin saying that she’s a judge first and Indigenous/a mother/a Franco-Ontarian afterward, which is probably the kind of answer you want in a Supreme Court of Canada justice, but it was interesting how many outlets made that their headline.

More interesting to me were some of the responses from justice minister David Lametti, and former PEI Premier Wade MacLauchlan, who ran the selection committee, given that their testimony is actually more relevant because Lametti in particular is the political actor who is responsible for this appointment (along with the prime minister). Regarding O’Bonsawin replacing the Court’s criminal law specialists, even though she is not one herself, Lametti said that it shouldn’t fall to one person on the Court as they all need to be aware of the issue, and I think that’s fair. But when it comes to the answers about encouraging more diverse candidates, I find it utterly mystifying that this government continues to insist on people applying for these positions rather than having their committees canvas the legal community for names, and then approaching them directly rather than waiting for applications. It’s been a problem that this government has had since day one, and it doesn’t encourage diversity because a lot of people from marginalised communities don’t apply because they are either discouraged already because of institutionalised racism and discrimination, or because they feel they have no chance because they don’t fit the established mould. This government knows this, and yet they persist with this inadequate model, for reasons unknown. It boggles the mind.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 182:

It was both the 31st Independence Day and six-months since Russia began its illegal invasion of the country. Russia marked the day by hitting a train full of civilians near the town of Chaplyne in Eastern Ukraine, killing 22 people. Here are some six-month retrospectives from the Star, CBC, and Associated Press.

Continue reading