Tag Archives: Stephen Poloz

Roundup: Aborted merger talks?

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I will be the first to admit that I don’t follow BC politics too closely, but I cannot help by roll my eyes at some of the narratives starting to leak out across the border around a supposed attempt to “unite the right” in that province. It sounds like it’s all talk, as the rumours that a particular mayor is being touted as a possible candidate lead a merged party, but the leader of the BC Conservative Party is throwing cold water over the whole thing, not unexpectedly.

As a quick refresher, the province used to have a single centre-right party, the BC Liberals, which was not the same as the federal Liberals, but a merger between the “free enterprise” Liberal and Conservative parties in the province to counter the NDP, and that was successful for a number of years, but they were insufficiently conservative for some, especially because they were relatively socially progressive and were environmentally conscious—they were the first jurisdiction in the country to bring in a carbon tax (and it’s an actual tax that largely offsets income taxes). And so the BC Conservatives were born, and the BC Liberals changed their name to BC United (sounding like a European football team), and they have largely tanked since.

This talk of mergers is usually what starts to happen when people start huffing poll numbers (hello the recurring “Why don’t the federal Liberals and NDP merge?” bullshit), but who don’t think about anything underlying, such as policies, beliefs, or underlying culture, because that stuff does matter. A lot. Case in point was Alberta, where Jason Kenney decided to ride in with his blue pick-up truck to “unite the right” in that province without doing any of the soul-searching about what any of it actually means, and what they would have to offer. No, it was just important to them to have a banner with “conservative” in it that could oppose the NDP, and sure, the “united” party did beat the NDP, but it has been nothing but internal chaos, who turned on Kenney at the first opportunity because he brought in the ungovernable, swivel-eyed loons into the fold to give him the numbers he felt he needed. As I’ve said before, he invited the face-eating leopards into the house and made them a nice warm bed, with the intention of turning them on his enemies, but they quickly realised that his face was right there and so they ate it instead. I can pretty much promise you that the exact same thing would happen in BC if they attempted such a merger, which would end up serving nobody.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian forces have taken control of two more villages in the Kharkiv region, and possibly another one in the Zaporizhzhia region in the south, as their offensive pushes forward. There have also been injuries from Russian air strikes on the southern cities of Mykolaiv and Kherson. In light of the deteriorating situation, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is postponing all foreign travel, starting with his planned trips to Spain and Portugal, because of the situation on the front lines.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1790735262978326589

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Roundup: Budget Day, 2024

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It was Budget Day, and as per usual with this government, any fiscal room that opened up, they spent and kept their deficit figures about the same. (Full document here). There were some minor tax increases on the top 0.1 percent and corporations, but apparently not as bad as some of the business lobby feared, though the way some of them went to bat for trickle-down economics this week was…something.

The overall theme has been about “generational fairness,” which they want to push as the Liberals desperately need to reclaim Millennial and Gen Z voters who are currently flocking to Poilievre, not because he has any policy solutions, but because they like his angry vibe (because that’s helpful, guys). And while that may be the theme, nothing I’ve heard suggests meaningful changes to address that generational fairness other than tinkering around the margins, but that seems to be par for the course, especially for this government.

Measures in the budget include:

  • The proposals to “unlock” public lands for housing development
  • The Canada Disability Benefit is in there, but it’s a very low level and there aren’t agreements with the provinces about not clawing it back
  • The commitment to investing in AI and data capacity.
  • More money for Indigenous housing and infrastructure, but never enough for the size and scope of what is needed.
  • Long-awaited details on carbon rebates for small business, but not Indigenous groups who were also promised them.
  • A $5 billion Indigenous loan guarantee programme.
  • Former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is being named to a task force on determining how pension funds can be used to invest more in Canada.
  • Directions for the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada to oversee open banking.
  • There is money for athletes, but not enough for what is needed by Olympians.
  • Higher taxes on tobacco and vaping products to help offset pharmacare costs.
  • Here are ten quick highlights, some of the “winners and losers,” some key numbers and even more highlights.

Meanwhile, some helpful threads about different aspects of the budget:

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1780326465420038220

And here are a few examples of Lindsay Tedds throwing some serious shade at people who don’t understand the capital gains changes. Ouch!

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1780435405021835447

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1780435859806069167

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1780436934340575689

Ukraine Dispatch:

We learned that the destruction of the Trypilska thermal power plant last week was because of a lack of air defence missiles—they intercepted seven missiles, but there weren’t enough for the remaining four inbound missiles, and the plant was destroyed. (Thanks, America!) President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signed the mobilisation bill into law, and it should take effect within a month. Here’s a look at the coming battle around Chasiv Yar.

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Roundup: Strange Five Eyes anxieties

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Every now and again, a weird little subplot turns up in Canadian politics centred around anxiety about our place in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance. Lately, this has been heightened because of the AUKUS agreement, which is mostly about Australia buying American nuclear submarines, and that’s the reason why Canada wasn’t invited to join. We as a country have not been having the necessary dialogue around replacing our submarine fleet (which we absolutely should be), so us joining AUKUS would be particularly ill-timed.

Nevertheless, this bit of anxiety crept up again over the weekend, whereby an American intelligence official needed to go on television in Canada to assure us that no, the leaks from national security personnel to media over allegations of foreign interference are not going to jeopardise our Five Eyes membership. But cripes, people—we have had far worse leaks in recent memory, be it Jeffrey Delisle, who was sending information to the Russians, or the allegations surrounding senior RMCP intelligence official Cameron Ortis (who is still awaiting trial). Are these leaks to the media damaging? Yes, of course, particularly because they seem very much to have a partisan focus to them. Is it going to get us kicked out of the Five Eyes? Hardly.

Ukraine Dispatch:

As Russian forces pound the town of Avdiivka, shifting away from Bakhmut, Ukrainian leadership is calling for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council after Russia said it would be transferring tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1639971295113670656

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Roundup: More Macklem misquotes

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I’m going to revisit more of Tiff Macklem’s appearance at the Commons finance committee, because things he said were being taken wildly out of context in Question Period yesterday, and we all have an obligation to call out egregious bullshit when we hear it. For example, when Macklem admits that stimulus may have been applied for too long, nobody knew if it was safe to withdraw it yet and they were operating on best guesses and advice from observers, and more to the point, the Bank was also engaged in forward guidance, and they needed  a cycle to wind that back before raising rates, otherwise they risked damaging their reputation as doing what they way they’re going to. This is a very important consideration for a central bank. As well, the questions about the level of spending during the height of the pandemic and whether that led to more inflationary stimulus ignores that it was impossible to better target supports like CERB because the government and its IT structure had no real ability to do that. That’s why the used the CRA’s system to kludge together CERB as quickly as they did—there wasn’t an ability to be more targeted (even though it was temporary). Trying to elicit quotes to blame the government for inflation is both cheap and intellectually dishonest, but that’s pretty much par for the course these days.

Meanwhile, former governor Stephen Poloz told an audience at Western that the economy is much more sensitive to interest rate hikes than it was ten years ago, so we should start seeing inflation start to fall shortly, but he also stated that it will only get part of the job done, so other policy action will be needed to get inflation back to its target zone. This said, Poloz also says that it’s impossible to say if rates were hiked too much over a short period, because as we should know by now, inflation can move about 18 months later than the rate changes happens, so stay tuned.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 275:

As Russian bombing of critical infrastructure continue, people in Kyiv are collecting rainwater to survive, while Kherson is facing renewed attacks. Russia is openly admitting to these attacks now, claiming it’s about disrupting military command and control and stopping the flow of ammunition, never mind that they’re openly admitting to war crimes as they do.

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Roundup: A nightclub shooting and sportwashing

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There was another shooting at an LGBTQ+ nightclub over the weekend, this time in Colorado Springs. It comes after a marked increase of far-right groups targeting drag queens and trans people, and make no mistake that such rhetoric is very much leaking into Canada, and was present in the election through the People’s Party, and featured in some of the discourse coming out of the occupation in Ottawa back in February. It is having an impact here—I’ve spoken to out gay MPs who say they haven’t faced these kinds of threats in years, but now they’ve made a comeback, and this is going to mean a concerted effort to take this seriously in our politics. Unfortunately, I’m not sure how much I trust that it’ll happen, given that our current government talks a better game than they do in following through, and the Conservatives are hoovering up the far-right tactics and propaganda as a way of trying to use the far right to win votes rather than playing to the centre, and Poilievre has insulated himself from criticism on this by putting his two out MPs in his leadership team, including making Melissa Lantsman one of his deputy leaders.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1594362156547547145

https://twitter.com/carl_s_charles/status/1594358215226990598

With this in mind, and Trudeau’s words especially, I am curious why he and his government then chose to send a delegation, led by Harjit Sajjan, to the FIFA World Cup in Qatar, a country that criminalises LGBTQ+ people, and which is essentially a modern slave state where hundreds of migrant workers died in order to build the facilities for these games. By choosing to send the delegation (as opposed to letting Team Canada participate), they are actively participating in the sportswashing happening. Not to say that Canada hasn’t done its share of sportswashing (thinking especially of the Vancouver winter Olympics), but this is egregious, and incredibly disappointing that they made this choice.

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Roundup: Pronouncements that should be disqualifying

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We are now on or about day forty-one of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the word of the day is “war crimes.” In particular, American president Joe Biden declared that Putin needs to be tried for war crimes…which is odd, because the Americans don’t believe in the International Criminal Court and haven’t signed onto its treaties for fear that they will be hauled before it at some point. So, I’m not sure who Biden thinks will be trying Putin for said war crimes, unless he plans to bring American into the ICC system at long last (though I am dubious that will ever happen). In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Bucha and witnessed the atrocities there for himself, calling Russia’s actions a “genocide” (though there is some debate about the applicability of the term given that it is a crime of specific intent).

Closer to home, there has been some attention being paid to the fact that Pierre Poilievre is trying to promote crypto and Bitcoin, and it’s just so ridiculous how this isn’t automatically being seen as disqualifying. (And it’s not just Poilievre—Michelle Rempel Garner has a private members’ bill in the queue about promoting crypto and blockchain in Canada). Never mind that everything Poilievre is saying is bunk, and his pronouncements about the Central Bank are utterly bonkers. The truth of the matter is that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is that they are nothing more than elaborate Ponzi schemes, and if he can’t see that, then we have a serious problem on our hands.

Meanwhile, here’s the former Governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz, eviscerating Poilievre and his nonsense thinking:

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Roundup: Occupation over, emergency orders confirmed

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The occupation of Ottawa’s downtown core by far-right extremists, grifters, and conspiracy theorists is at an end. The police action kept up all day Saturday, and by Sunday, they were into mop-up operations. In total, there were 191 arrests, some 400 charges, and 79 vehicles towed, but it will still be some time before barricades start coming down in downtown Ottawa, because they want to ensure that the same group don’t move right back in once the barricades come down. And indeed, while the occupation may be ended, the emergency measures will likely stick around a little longer in order to prevent a resurgence or similar attempts in other locations, particularly given that many of the participants are lying in wait just outside of the city in makeshift encampments on private property. Trudeau said the emergency orders will likely be lifted in a few days, but they’re awaiting advice from law enforcement.

In the meantime, the debate on the emergency measures carried on through the weekend and into Monday, and while I have a column coming out later today on just how bad it was, there is special mention to Conservative MP Mark Strahl for fabricating a constituent named “Briane” who apparently had her accounts frozen for donating to the occupation before it was illegal. Andrew Scheer went ballistic about how this kind of retroactive application of the orders was unconscionable, erm, except that it didn’t happen because Briane doesn’t exist, and if she does, then it’s someone catfishing Strahl, who is too gullible to check into a clearly bogus tale. To date, 76 accounts have been frozen, either from organisers of the occupations, or those who owned trucks on the streets. That’s it. But the Conservatives are trying to push a narrative that Trudeau is authoritarian and punishing dissent, even though none of this actually bears out in the facts or the political reality of someone in a hung parliament. They’re just so cartoonishly bad and transparent in their lies that it’s hard to actually believe they are that inept. And yet they’ll get away with it, because there are credulous media outlets taking it at face value, and even more that are both-sidesing, and trying to get confirmation no matter that the falsehood is obvious on the face of it.

The vote itself was not particularly close, given that the NDP had already signalled that they would support the motion, though that didn’t stop the Conservatives from trying to deride them for supposedly turning their backs on how Tommy Douglas voted against the War Measures Act, even though the Emergencies Act is not the same thing and does not suspend civil liberties. There was later some consternation that Trudeau indicated that this would essentially be a confidence vote, which frankly it should be. If you don’t think the government can handle emergency powers, that’s a pretty solid indication you don’t think they should be in power. After the vote, Candice Bergen was already read with procedural mischief to use the portion of the Act that can call for a motion to lift the orders with the support of 20 MPs, so that will go ahead once the sitting resumes in a week. The Senate still has to vote on the emergency order motion, probably later today, so the government is not in the clear just yet.

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Roundup: The “missing” PM reappears

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While things quieted down with the grifter occupation, a new cry went up on all sides, who were trying to draw Justin Trudeau out and into the fray. A narrative, fed by journalists who clearly still don’t understand what this occupation is all about, was that Trudeau was somehow “in hiding” and needed to engage with these extremists, grifters, and conspiracy theorists to end the current situation. Worse, every opposition party was adding their voice to this nonsense, insisting that “federal leadership” would resolve a situation that is clearly and explicitly that of the city’s civilian police force. Trudeau did show up in the House of Commons in the evening, during the emergency debate on the occupation, and pushed back at the Conservative narratives that the country is “divided” over this, and quite rightly repeated that Canadians stood together in the pandemic and that vaccination remains the way out, not these protests.

Meanwhile, I am growing very disturbed by the fact that my media colleagues are agitating for the prime minister to call in the military to resolve the situation, never mind that a) the power to call on the military to aid in civil powers is up to the provinces to use, not the federal government; b) the Canadian Forces are not a police force and should not be used as such, because we are not a police state, and I swear to gods I will keep posting this Battlestar Galactica clip until people get it through their heads that calling in the military is not a solution to anything. It will only feed the narrative that Trudeau is a mad dictator, which accomplishes these extremists’ goals for them. I also cannot believe that the media keeps normalizing this line of thinking, like their continued insistence that the federal government invoke the Emergencies Act, and the repeated refrain that “people don’t care about jurisdiction in a pandemic.” Jurisdiction is literally part of the rule of law. It matters. People should care. We need to stop treating this like it’s some stupid game, or that Trudeau is the premiers’ father who can just take over at any point. That’s not how laws work, and agitating otherwise because you think it’ll make a better story is really, really dangerous.

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QP: Deception about deflation

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For the final Question Period of 2021—which was still undetermined as things got underway, as the House Leaders were engaged in a game of chicken—neither the prime minister nor his deputy were present, but the latter would appear virtually. Erin O’Toole led off, script in front of him, and he immediately started off with a lie about deflation, which did happen, and he was presuming it to be a good thing because it would lower prices, when in fact it would have led to a spiral that turned into a depression as businesses couldn’t service their debts. Chrystia Freeland, by video, called this out as misinformation, and noted that Stephen Poloz cited that the government’s actions averted a second Great Depression. O’Toole railed about Freeland’s alleged misinformation during the election campaign and compared her to Donald Trump, and Freeland called O’Toole the leader of flip-flops, and noted that in the election the Conservatives promised even more spending while they were currently railing against it, and that a consistent position might be nice. O’Toole repeated his first question in French, and Freeland repeated the Poloz comments in French. John Barlow got up and railed about the export ban on PEI potatoes and wondered why the agriculture minister was not currently in Washington resolving the situation. Freeland assured him the federal government was working to resolve if and noted she was next to the prime minister when he raised it with Biden, while Conservatives advocate capitulation. Barlow insisted that this has basically destroyed PEI, and Freeland dismissed this as scaremongering, and reassured farmers they were working on it like they did with previous disputes they won on.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and blamed the Quebec teacher who was reassigned for wearing a hijab, railing that she knowingly broke the law and saying otherwise was Quebec bashing. Freeland calmly recited that they stand with Quebeckers who stand up for individual rights and freedoms. Therrien railed that mayors are funding court challenges, accusing them of not understanding secularism or democracy, and Freeland gave some fairly disarming reassurances that the federal government works well with Quebec and the Bloc shouldn’t pick fights.

Peter Julian rose for the Bloc, and in French, he worried that omicron could lead to lockdowns with no supports, to which Freeland made a pitch for MPs to pass Bill C-2 to provide necessary supports. Julian shouted the same question again in English, and Freeland repeated her response in the other official language. 

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QP: Trying to make “Justinflation” happen

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The Liberal benches were again about two-thirds full, and the prime minister was in attendance, so that was something? While Erin O’Toole gave a lengthy speech in the Chamber earlier, he was nowhere to be seen. That left it up to Gérard Deltell to lead off, and he moaned about inflation and worries in the US about persistent inflation—which is not Canada’s situation. Justin Trudeau said the biggest thing that they could do was end the pandemic, which would end the supply chain disruptions that were increasing costs. Deltell cited the “not thinking about monetary policy” quip and demanded limited spending—erm, which is fiscal policy—and Trudeau repeated that they needed to end the pandemic. Deltell selectively quoted a  countries with lower inflation than us, and Trudeau noted that this was a global issue because of supply chains. Michael Barrett got up after and took a page from Pierre Poilievre’s playbook in confusing land and housing stock to rail about inflation, and Trudeau noted that the question ignored the pandemic, and the way to end it was by vaccination, which Conservatives didn’t seem to get. Barrett countered that his riding has one the highest vaccination rates in the country and gave more wrong talking points about inflation, and Trudeau suggested that Barrett’s constituents help convince his Conservative colleagues to get vaccinated).

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and worried that they softwood lumber tariffs were doubled after the Three Amigos summit and wondered what they talked about. Trudeau listed off items discussed including softwood and PEI potatoes. Blanchet made a jab at the potatoes, and mused that Quebec would be better able to negotiate on their own, but Trudeau insisted that they were defending the sector like they did aluminium (another Quebec export).

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and demanded immediate action on the housing crisis, but Trudeau disputed his characterisation and listed measures in the Speech from the Throne. Singh switched to French to repeat the question, and got the same answer.

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