Roundup: Positive feelings about a useless meeting

We seem to be caught in a pattern where Donald Trump will invite a world leader to the White House—yesterday it was NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte—and he goes on an unhinged rant while they’re sitting there, trying to avoid saying anything that will set him off. And yesterday’s rant included a full-on threat to annex Greenland (while Rutte tried to downplay NATO’s involvement in any way, which is true to the extent that it only operates by consensus), and went on an extended rant about Canada not working as a real country, and made up the lie that America pays for our military (not true in the slightest), before repeating the falsehood that the US subsidizes us.

Meanwhile, Dominic LeBlanc and François-Philippe Champagne had their meeting with Howard Lutnick, with Doug Ford along for the ride as he continued to try and make himself the main character (and I watched Conservative talking head pundits also putting forward this distorted view of reality). Ford came out of the meeting, effusive about how “positive” it was and how they were going to have more meetings next week (and was later corrected that officials were going to meet, not him), while the two ministers basically talked a lot and said nothing, because nothing could be accomplished here. But they had to pretend that something came from this meeting when obviously nothing did, as there were no changes to any tariffs, and Ford’s pressure tactic around the electricity “surcharge” remains off the table again.

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lkc6vantcc2f

Elsewhere, Trump’s pick for US ambassador to Canada had his Senate confirmation hearing, and when asked, he said that Canada is a sovereign country, and tried to claim that Trump’s expansionist rhetoric is about “negotiation tactics,” but it certainly doesn’t seem to be. And yeah, he said the bare minimum to ensure that he wasn’t PNGed before he could even arrive in the country. Closer to home, Scott Moe continues to call for capitulation to China regarding their tariff fight, because of course he did, and claimed it was about protecting Quebec’s industries over Saskatchewan’s, except Quebec doesn’t really have much of an auto sector, but Moe’s brain is pretty smooth, after all.

Ukraine Dispatch

An overnight attack on Dnipro injured three women and damaged apartment buildings. Ukrainian forces are in retreat in parts of Kursk region, which means losing a bargaining chip in possible peace negotiations. And Putin has all kinds of conditions on a possible ceasefire, because he’s not serious, and Ukraine only went along with the plan to call his bluff.

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Roundup: Offering a limited reprieve

Because the trade war is many ways a weird power dynamic, yesterday was all about offers of reprieves. After a lengthy phone call between Justin Trudeau and Trump, there came word of a “reprieve” on tariffs for the auto sector—for a month—but at the behest of the Big Three auto companies rather than any of Trudeau’s efforts, and while there hasn’t been official word, Senior Government Sources™ are saying that Trudeau is not budging on the retaliatory measures. And why would he? The one-month reprieve came with the message from both JD Vance and Trump’s press secretary that they want those manufacturers to locate all of their factories in the US to avoid tariffs, but the “official” reason for the tariffs remains fentanyl, because Trump needs the legal fiction of a “national emergency” to use executive powers to levy tariffs rather than Congress (but he controls that, so the logic only extends so far). Oh, and now Trump is talking about agricultural carveouts, because they’re stupid and don’t realise the consequences of their actions until it’s too late.

In provincial reactions, both Danielle Smith and Scott Moe said they were pulling American liquor from their provincial liquor control boards, a day after everyone else. Smith had to put on a big show that included one of her Alberta Sheriffs holding a big rifle to show that she was super serious about them patrolling the border (not that they can legally do much more than taxi that person to an authorised federal border agent or RCMP officer). Both Smith and Moe also insisted that they didn’t want export taxes on either oil or potash, which again, is a boneheaded move of signalling to Trump that they don’t want to play their strongest cards ever (because they’re both super geniuses). Of course, it’s not their call because those powers are federal, but it’s still a sign of how unserious either of them is in the face of an existential threat. Meanwhile, Yukon premier Raj Pillai is “considering” limiting ties with Elon Musk’s businesses, like Starlink (which seems like something they should be doing more than just considering).

There was also word that there was more progress on interprovincial trade barriers and incremental progress toward credentials recognition—with some exceptions for Quebec because of linguistic requirements (but I still have questions about how they plan to get self-regulating bodies like the colleges of physicians and surgeons to play ball).

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile hit a hotel in Kryvyi Rih, killing three and injuring at least twenty-nine others. The Americans are cutting off the flow of intelligence to Ukraine, because they’re now on Putin’s side. A Ukrainian commander says that NATO forces are not ready for modern drone warfare. Here is an examination of the state of the war, and that it would take Russia 118 years to fully conquer Ukraine at their present rate of advancement.

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Roundup: Clutched pearls over a paper move

Because everything is stupid, the Conservatives spent the whole day screaming, both at a media availability and over social media, that Mark Carney “lied” about his involvement with Brookfield Asset Management relocating their headquarters to New York, and tried to tie this to Trump inviting companies to relocate to the US. This is something that the Conservatives have been howling about for months, but they claim that there is “proof” now that Carney “lied” because his timeline of events doesn’t match up. And maybe he was wrong, but this has pretty much been a non-story from the start, because this was largely a paper move to their pre-existing New York office in order to get access to the New York Stock Exchange, while their parent company remains headquartered in Toronto. It’s not an actual scandal, but the Conservatives have been ginning up faux-outrage over Carney for two years now, and this is just the latest example.

But I can’t get over the fact that every single Conservative has been lining up to declare that Carney “lied,” when pretty much every single member of that party has been lying about everything under the sun for years now, because they know they can get away with it. The fact that someone like Andrew Scheer isn’t bursting into flames over the abused irony of him of all people trying to call Carney a liar is just too much. It’s not just projection—it’s a complete lack of self-awareness that they lie so much about everything (especially things they don’t actually need to lie about!) that they don’t even realise that they’re doing it anymore, and then they start running for their fainting couches over this absolute non-issue. Unbelievable.

The Conservatives have also taken to calling Carney “sneaky,” and claiming that he’s hiding the truth about his assets, and whether this business activities were benefitting from his advising the government. But as this fact-check explains, he is under no obligation to comply with conflict-of-interest laws because he is not yet a public office holder, but if he does win the contest and becomes prime minister, lo, he will be subject to the disclosures. Again, this is just more faux outraged being ginned up, and making the Conservatives look like they are desperate.

Ukraine Dispatch

The overnight attack on the Kyiv region overnight Tuesday killed two and damaged energy facilities. Russia claims that it retook two settlements in the Kursk region, as more North Korean troops arrive. Ukraine’s drones have hit Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery. Ukraine’s prime minister says a preliminary agreement has been reached with the Americans on an economic deal that includes access to rare earth minerals.

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Roundup: Caretaker doesn’t apply

Sometimes, the pundit class in this country boggles me. Case in point—the National Post’s John Ivison wrote yesterday that the announcement about moving ahead with high-speed rail was “ignoring the caretaker convention,” (and because this is Ivison, the words “in this country” are used loosely as he is currently filing from Costa Rica). I get that Ivison wants to dump on Trudeau for making a big, flashy announcement as he’s on his way out the door, but the thing is, the caretaker convention doesn’t apply. The only time that the convention does apply is when Parliament is dissolved for an election (and Philippe Lagassé can explain this all to you here).

Part of the problem is that legacy media in this country does not know how to deal with the current political situation, where Trudeau has signalled his intention to resign, but remains in power until his successor is chosen. This is perfectly legitimate in a Westminster system like ours, especially as Trudeau won a series of confidence votes before Parliament rose for the winter break, and before his advice to the Governor General to prorogue. Since then, virtually every single pundit and editorial writer has been wringing their hands, writing things like “lame-duck,” or “leaderless,” or “vacuum,” when none of this is actually true, and it breaks their brains that the government is capable of operating and responding to Trump and his predations without Parliament currently sitting, as though Parliament would have anything in particular to do in this current situation other than take-note debates or unanimous consent motions. Trudeau is personally able to exercise the full suite of his powers as prime minister right up until the moment he does officially resign and turn the keys over to his successor. This is neither illegitimate nor illegal, and the long-time observers of our political scene should know that.

What is particularly galling is that long-time Ottawa columnists don’t understand these very basics. Ivison used to be the Post’s Ottawa bureau chief, for fuck’s sake. He should have a basic understanding of the difference between prorogation and dissolution, and when the caretaker convention should apply. He’s been writing about Canadian politics since the birth of the Post, and was writing about UK politics before that. This is basic civics. And it’s not just him, even though he is today’s object lesson. We have a real problem when the people we are supposed to turn to for help in putting the news into context can’t be arsed to get the basic facts right, so long as they get to grind their ideological axes.

Ukraine Dispatch

Tens of thousands of people in Odesa remain without power after successive Russian attacks, while Russia claims to have taken back a “huge” chunk of Kursk region in Russia. The EU has been coming up with a plan to manufacture and send more arms to Ukraine.

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Roundup: The threat of annexation is serious

Well, things got real again today, as Justin Trudeau told the audience at his Canada-US Economic Summit that Trump isn’t joking around with his talk of annexation, and that part of the reason why is access to our critical minerals. Trudeau apparently also talked about the need to mend fences with Mexico as well, which was apparently an oblique shot at Doug Ford, who has been trying to throw them under the bus rather than working with them to counter Trump. (Ford, meanwhile, disparaged the whole summit while on the campaign trail, because apparently, it’s stealing his thunder). There was also talk at the summit about pipelines, nuclear energy (and conservative shills who claim Trudeau is anti-nuclear are straight-up lying), and removing some of the federal-situated trade barriers around financial services regulations and procurement.

As the day went on, more details came out about those two calls that Trudeau had with Trump on Monday about the tariffs and the “reprieve” that was granted. Comments included that Trump was musing about breaking a 1908 boundary treaty, was dismissive of our contributions to NORAD, and listed off a litany of complaints. (Because “it’s all about fentanyl,” right?) It was also on this call that Trudeau apparently deduced that Trump hadn’t been briefed on the $1.3 billion border plan, but maybe that’s what you get when Trump refuses your calls for weeks while he plays gangster. (And he was also refusing the Mexican president’s calls as well, so this was not a Trudeau-specific snub).

So this is where things are at—the stakes are higher than we may want to admit (and certainly the head of the Canadian American Business Council doesn’t want to admit it and still believes this is just an offensive joke), but maybe this existential threat will help shake off the normalcy bias that has perpetuated a certain status quo. Nevertheless, the political landscape is shifting drastically right now, and it’s going to make for a very different election campaign than what everyone was counting on.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian guided bomb attack on Sumy region in the northeast killed three. Russians claim to have taken the settlement of Toretsk, but the Ukrainian brigade in the outskirts says they haven’t moved. International nuclear monitors are concerned that the number of attacks on the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant have increased.

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Roundup: Enduring mythologies around cancelled energy projects

The continued predations by Trump are giving people amnesia about energy projects in this country, and mythologies about what actually happened with projects are taking hold. Energy East is a good example, and people continue to believe fact-free versions of history, or that these projects are somehow still just waiting for approval and that enough political willpower is all that’s needed to get them signed off. But they don’t exist any longer, and the reasons they didn’t move ahead are more complex than the comforting lies they like to tell themselves. As usual, Andrew Leach brought the receipts.

Pierre Poilievre then decided to weigh in, because he’s a trustworthy authority on the history of energy investments in this country, particularly in the Harper era. Oh, wait—this is Poilievre, and everything he says is a lie.

There are so many projects that got approved under the Harper years that never went ahead even during Harper’s majority parliament, but they are happy to blame Trudeau, because it’s a pathology. The 2014 oil crash did permanent damage to the industry, and the recognition of a carbon-constrained future has not helped either. And as much as they like to bemoan “government regulation” on these projects, their attempt at massive de-regulation in the Harper era merely led to a succession of lawsuits and uncertainty, which is what proper regulations seek to avoid. It’s too bad that they refuse to understand that particular lesson.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched a drone and missile strike against Zaporizhzhia overnight Wednesday, killing one and wounding at least 31, leaving tens of thousands without heat or power. Ukraine is drafting new recruitment reforms to attract 18- to -25-year-olds currently exempt from mobilisation orders. NATO’s Secretary General says that he wants the US to keep sending arms to Ukraine, and that he’s sure that Europe will pay for them if necessary.

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Roundup: Moe looks to capitulate as well

There was another virtual first ministers’ meeting yesterday to discuss ongoing preparations for dealing with threats from Trump, and yes, Danielle Smith was in attendance (virtually, from Washington), and most of the premiers are on board with the need for dollar-for-dollar retaliation. Most. Smith herself was trying to sound conciliatory and saying that things were “better” from her perspective this time, but now Scott Moe is starting to say that he’s not in favour of dollar-for-dollar retaliation, because he too is more interested in capitulation to Trump. Then again, Moe is one who has a history of capitulation, like the time he caved to the demands of the so-called “Freedom convoy” and then begged them not to blockade the border crossings in his province. That’s who Scott Moe is.

Meanwhile, Danielle Smith says that the premiers agreed that they need to build more east-west pipelines, and good luck with that, mostly because people in Eastern Canada aren’t really keen on paying the premium that shipping Alberta oil and gas would cost (particularly on the east coast), particularly if we are moving to a carbon-constrained future where it would probably be cheaper and better in the longer-term to simply invest in building up capacity for a faster adoption of EVs rather than spend billions on infrastructure for stranded assets. Oh, and don’t think that more pipelines to the west coast are going to mean a boon for LNG either, considering that there are numerous LNG proposals on the books that have all of their approvals, but haven’t been built because the market hasn’t found a case for them, either in terms of investments or a willingness to sign long-term contracts for these projects.

There is some hope that the current situation may finally let provinces see the wisdom of eliminating internal trade barriers, largely around regulation and credentials recognition, but then again, this has been an irritant since Confederation, and that kind of inertia is really hard to overcome.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian-installed officials claim that Ukraine launched a drone attack near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear facility.

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Roundup: “Identity politics” on both sides

As the facile analysis of the Trump victory continues across the political talk shows, there was one particular exchange on Power & Politics last night that I felt deserves a bit more attention, because I think it’s important to call bullshit on, which is the discourse around “identity politics.” There has been a lot written about, particularly over the past two days, about how the left has been too scoldy about said “identity politics” and pronouns, and it caused the public to turn against it, which is both ridiculous given the broad-based rage-and-resentment campaign underway, but it also excuses the very identity politics that the Trump campaign (and the current far-right) play into themselves, particularly with race.

Nevertheless, after this diatribe about identity politics, columnist Emilie Nicolas, who was on that panel, objected and pointed in particular to what is happening right now with young men, who are being raised on a diet of Andrew Tate podcasts and their similar ilk, along with some allusions to the gamer-to-fascism pipeline, who are being taught an absolute load of horseshit about alpha men, male dominance, and rank misogyny. And Nicolas pointed out that this is identity politics, and to insist that it’s only coming from the “left” makes this particular kind of identity politics invisible when that’s exactly what it is.

Trying to dismiss anti-racism, anti-misogyny and anti-homophobia/transphobia as “identity politics” that the general population doesn’t care about (as though the general population consists entirely of white men), while racism, misogyny, and white supremacy are given a free pass and not being called “identity politics” when in fact that is at the core of what they are, is actually kind of damning to those who think the “left” needs to cool it. I do get that the whole “scolding” aspect is something that does need to be re-thought as a tactic, but to pretend that “identity politics” is the domain of the left alone is both wrong, and intellectually dishonest in the extreme.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian guided bomb attack hit Zaporizhzhia, killing four, wounding at least 33, destroyed houses and damaged an oncology centre. Energy facilities in the northern Zhytomyr region also suffered damage in a drone attack. President Zelenskyy told a European summit that “peace through strength” is what is needed (which is in part what he is hoping to flatter Trump with), and also said that North Korean forces have suffered casualties when fighting Ukrainian forces in Kursk.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1854554730325787106

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Roundup: Toxifying a committee

The ongoing denigration of this Parliament continues, as the toxic swamp that committees have devolved into has claimed another victim. Liberal MP Anita Vandenbeld, who has a resumé full of doing work with women and civil society engagement in other countries, removed herself from the Status of Women committee after relentless harassment from Conservative members of the committee, in particular Michelle Ferreri, plus the actions of the Chair, Shelby Kramp-Neuman, in facilitating it, all of it stemming from the set-up that the Conservatives engineered over that so-called “emergency meeting” in the summer where the Chair abused her authority to summon witnesses with no agreement for a study that had not been agreed to, which was being used to try and embarrass the government.

The Status of Women committee used to be one of the most functional and non-partisan committees in the House of Commons, but Poilievre and the Conservatives couldn’t have that. They insisted on replacing the previous committee chair for Kramp-Neuman, who has been doing their bidding, and have made it toxic and dysfunctional, like everything else in this current parliament, because that is part of their overall plan. They need to break everything in order to blame the government, justify an election and to tell people who don’t follow politics and don’t understand what’s going on here that they need to come to power so that they can fix things, when really, the plan is that once they are in power, they will start dismantling the guardrails of the state. None of this is subtle, or novel, and it’s been done in plenty of other countries where their democracies have been dismantled by far-right parties, and it’s happening here while our media stands idly by because both-sides and “We don’t care about process stories,” while the Elder Pundits keep tut-tutting and insisting that it won’t be that bad. We’re getting into some seriously dangerous territory, and nobody wants to sound the alarm.

Speaking of committees, the public safety committee heard from top national security officials, who were there to talk about the foreign interference including violence and homicide commissioned by the Indian government, and they made some pretty important revelations, but MPs didn’t really want to hear it, because once again, they were too busy grinding partisan axes. The Conservatives only asked about the embargoed briefing to the Washington Post, which has been falsely termed a “leak,” when it was confirmed that they were contacted by writers from the Post to confirm certain details from their reporting, which they agreed to under the embargo, in part because it was seen as a credible newspaper that could counter the coming disinformation from Indian sources (and we know that certain newspapers in Canada had swallowed Indian disinformation whole on previous occasions). And the Liberals? They were too busy gathering clips of these officials explaining why Pierre Poilievre should get his security clearance. Honest to Zeus, this shouldn’t be this difficult, especially for such a sensitive topic, but nope. MPs have once again beclowned themselves.

Ukraine Dispatch

At least nine people were injured and several apartments set on fire by a drone attack on Kyiv. Russians claim they have seized control of Selydove and are moving to encircle the town of Kurakhove in the east. Also facing imminent Russian threat is Pokrovsk, where the coal mines that fuel the steel mills are still operating as Russians close in.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1851276298242466109

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Roundup: Scott Moe’s genital inspectors

While I haven’t been following the Saskatchewan election too closely, but while on the campaign trial, incumbent Scott Moe promised anti-trans change room policies if re-elected. And I just can’t even.

Set aside for the moment the fact that this is a) the kind of anti-LGBTQ+ scapegoating that comes out of the authoritarian playbook; and b) that Moe has already told on himself with his previous anti-trans legislation whereby he not only pre-emptively invoked the Notwithstanding Clause, but also inoculated himself and his government from being sued for any harm that comes to trans people as a result of these policies, this policy is unenforceable, just like Danielle Smith’s similar pledge to ban trans women from playing sports in women’s and girls’ leagues. Is the plan from either premier that they plan to hire government genital inspectors before someone can enter a change room or play on a sports team? Or do they plan to let vigilantes do it for them and expose already vulnerable trans people to more violence?

And this is the real kicker—this very quickly spirals out from anti-trans panic to all-out assault on women who don’t conform to a preconceived notion of femininity at the hands of these vigilantes. There was a case last summer in BC where someone demanded that a nine-year-old girl who had a short haircut prove that she was actually a girl at a school track meet. This is the kind of harassment that Moe and Smith are promoting—now every girl with short hair, or small breasts, or who is a called a “tomboy” will need to subject herself to ongoing genital inspections to ensure that she’s not trans. And heaven forfend if a child was born intersex and is not easily sorted into this particular system. Is this the world that they actually want? It’s insidious and it solves not a single problem other than the ones in their fevered imaginations. And the fact that Moe thinks this is his Hail Mary pass in an election where he can’t defend his own record speaks volumes about where this kind of anti-trans panic has taken hold among voters on the political right.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched 56 drones and a missile overnight against Mykolaiv in the south, attacking their energy infrastructure. Russia claims that they took the village of Maksymilianivka, but this has not been confirmed. President Zelenskyy told NATO members that their intelligence indicates that as many as 10,000 North Korean troops could be deployed on Russia’s side in the conflict, but no one else could corroborate this.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1846855444934852759

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