I hope that everyone has enjoyed their Dominion Day celebrations. The Liberals and Conservatives certainly have, after their by-election wins, the Liberals not only holding Scarborough–Agincourt and winning Trinity–Spadina, but they made impressive gains in Fort McMurray–Athabasca. Their voter share went up in pretty much every one of the ridings, which probably says something. In fact, the Conservatives took less than 50 percent of the vote in Fort McMurray, which is actually a fairly significant thing, and perhaps not all that surprising given how upset they are with the changes made to the Temporary Foreign Workers Programme, which has a significant impact on their local economies, not to mention the myriad of ways in which the Harper government has ballsed up the Keystone XL file, and made it harder for the Americans to come to an agreement on it. As well, the Green Party scored more votes in Macleod than the NDP, which must also give them some pause as they keep insisting that they are making headway into Alberta. Kady O’Malley notes the increase in Liberal voter share, and the stumbling NDP momentum leading into 2015. Aaron Wherry muses about the meaning of the victories for Trudeau, and whether it really is disaster for Mulcair and that it probably wasn’t the NDP’s Outremont, as many Liberals were trying to suggest. Of course, with the really low voter turnouts (getting the turnout nerd crowd to declare that we need mandatory voting now), Pundit’s Guide looks at that factor, and how these contests may play out in 2015 after redistribution, which could be important once Fort McMurray–Athabasca gets broken up.
Tag Archives: Scarborough Agincourt
Roundup: Four by-elections today
It’s by-election day in four ridings across the country – two in Alberta and two in Toronto. Despite the usual lazy story ledes about how this is somehow yet another “test” for Trudeau, it would seem to me that this is more of a test for Mulcair with the two Toronto ridings, as to whether or not he can hold the one seat he had there or make gains with the other, while in Alberta, it’ll be a test as to how much Harper can retain his own base – something he has had trouble with in the past few by-elections, whether in Calgary Centre or Brandon–Souris, where significant leads were lost and their wins were narrow and marginal compared to resurgent Liberals who had not had traction in those regions in decades. And Fort McMurray will be a very interesting race to watch, not only because of the amount of attention that Trudeau in particular paid to the region, but because of the deep unhappiness with the industry there to the changes to the Temporary Foreign Workers programme, which they rely on heavily because of an overheated market with no labour available. That may be the biggest upset if they decide to punish Harper at the ballot box. All of which is a far more interesting lede than whether the Liberals are being “tested” once more.
Roundup: Different lessons before the by-election
Not that Parliament has risen for the summer, the leaders can begin their summer tours in earnest, without having to take those inconvenient breaks to show up for the odd Question Period or a vote here or there. Because you know, they’re meeting with “real Canadians” as opposed to doing their actual jobs. And with by-elections happening a week away, both Trudeau and Mulcair are in Toronto today to campaign there, both of them drawing different lessons from the Ontario election, while the people who study these sorts of things aren’t necessarily sure that voters are committed to the same parties provincially and federally, and that they may be making a different calculation electorally.
Roundup: A summit with underlying concerns
Stephen Harper’s Maternal and Child Health summit begins today in Toronto, with some luminaries in attendance like Ban Ki-Moon, the Aga Khan, and Melinda Gates. Critics are quick to say that our foreign aid dollars have not only been decreasing, but are being funnelled into this kind of cynical initiative that does more to fuel domestic concerns – after all, who doesn’t love an mom and apple pie issue like ensuring that infant mortality is reduced – not to mention those who criticise that these same programmes are not doing anything about reproductive health and access to safe abortions for women in developing countries. But on the other hand, we do seem to be making a difference and are visibly standing up for the issue, for what it’s worth. There are also concerns that the government is not being accountable for its Maternal and Child Health spending, that despite all of the data it’s putting out, it’s scattered and the dots don’t connect, making it hard to track or put together an overall picture.
Roundup: New allegations around satellite offices
Documents suggest that the NDP may have mislead the House of Commons administration with respect to their “satellite offices,” saying that those staffers would be working in Ottawa when they weren’t. This will make for a lot more awkward and/or acrimonious questions when Thomas Mulcair appears before committee to answer questions about this particular setup.
Roundup: Calling four out of five by-elections
Stephen Harper has made the call – four by-elections will be held on June 30th, two in Alberta and two in Ontario. The fifth vacant riding, Whitby–Oshawa, former riding of Jim Flaherty, will remain open for the time being. That means that Fort McMurray–Athabasca and Macleod in Alberta, and Trinity–Spadina and Scarborough–Agincourt in the Greater Toronto Area are now officially in play. It also means that the two GTA ridings will be contesting the by-election in the middle of both a provincial and municipal election. It has also been suggested by the cynical among us that Harper intended to drive down voter participation by holding the by-elections the day before Canada Day. It remains to be seen in some of the more hotly contested ridings, and Justin Trudeau has spent the weekend in both Northern Alberta and Okotoks because of the two by-elections, hoping for a Liberal breakthrough in that province.