Tag Archives: Russia

Roundup: The gloves are off in the leadership

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It is now day twenty of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Kyiv remains largely intact, while Russian bombardment continues of other cities, particularly Mariupol. Peace talks continue, but there is some speculation that because Russia cannot capture Kyiv that the shelling of other cities is an attempt to force some kinds of concessions from the Ukrainians to end the conflict. There is also news that Russians bombed a military base near the border of Poland, which some are interpreting as an act to warn NATO about providing aid to Ukraine. At the same time, we are hearing that China turned down Russia’s request for military aid as well as financial aid to weather the economic sanctions, though both countries deny this (not that they should be believed), so that is a very interesting development indeed. Elsewhere, the World Bank has approved another $200 million in financial aid for Ukraine to help it weather the invasion.

Later today, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy will address the Canadian parliament, and here is a list of previous leaders who have done so. Meanwhile, two Canadian MPs—one Liberal, one Conservative—are in Poland to offer assistance where they can to Ukrainian refugees, and showing that this is a non-partisan effort to help where Canada is able to. Both expect Zelenskyy to demand more from Canada, and they have been hearing about needs in Poland to assist with the influx of refugees.

Conservative leadership

The gloves are off, and Pierre Poilievre and Patrick Brown are at each other’s throats over the 2015 “niqab ban” policy of the former Harper-led government. Brown is trying to paint Poilievre as complicit in it, as he was in Cabinet at the time, while Poilievre is calling Brown a liar (which is rich considering that Poilievre is an avowed lying liar who lies all the gods damned time), and says there was never a niqab ban—erm, except there was, Harper doubled down on it, members of Poilievre’s own campaign team have said there was and apologised for not standing against it. But again, Poilievre is a lying liar who lies what are you going to do? Oh, and Poilievre is also making a bogus promise about coercing provinces to accept foreign credentials for doctors and engineers. Good luck with that, Pierre, because if that’s all it would take, it would have been done by now (particularly when Poilievre was the federal minister of employment and social development). Cripes.

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Roundup: The last-minute scramble to add to Trudeau’s Euro trip

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We are now on day nineteen of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and it remains in something of a holding pattern. Russian airstrikes are ramping up, and no, NATO will still not implement a no-fly zone because it will mean shooting down Russian targets, blowing up air defences on Russian soil, and dragging us into a shooting war with a nuclear power while at the same time not doing anything about ground-based shelling or missile-strikes. While sanctions continue to ramp up, the IMF is warning of a massive recession in Russia, which could have bigger international ramifications. (Because sanctions need to hurt us if they’re going to hurt Russia. That’s how it goes).

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Meanwhile, the Star got a behind-the-scenes peek at some of the diplomatic scrambling that happened with Trudeau’s trip to Europe last week, which was supposed to be a short trip to meet the new German chancellor, but quickly ballooned into a number of other meetings and events to show solidarity among NATO allies and with Ukraine (and of course, an audience with the Queen).

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Roundup: A strategic turning point?

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We are in day seventeen of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the bombardment and shelling has intensified not only in Mariupol, but some other cities that have thus far been unaffected. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that they have achieved a strategic turning point, that they have lasted four times longer than Russia planned for them to, and asked his people for strength and patience. There are also concerns that Russians are targeting ports and grain silos, which could have a major impact on food supplies in the region as the crisis grows. In the meantime, the BBC has a chilling report out of Kharkiv, and it’s a bit grisly because of the number of Russian corpses just lying there.

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Justin Trudeau concluded his European trip, and announced yet more sanctions against Russian oligarchs including Roman Abramovich, who has interests in a steel company that has operations in Canada, so these sanctions could affect its operations.

Closer to home, Anita Anand addressed the Ottawa Conference on Security and Defence yesterday, and spoke about a “robust package” to modernise NORAD, and said that they have not forgotten about the threats posed by China while the world is focused on Ukraine. At the same conference, a senior CSIS official spoke about the vulnerability posed by cyberspace, which is why they are focusing on protecting critical infrastructure from cyber-attacks.

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Roundup: Calls to further isolate Belarus

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The continued shelling of Mariupol marked day sixteen of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while the Russians were aggressively pushing disinformation and propaganda about what happened there. It also looks like that long convoy on the way to Kyiv has broken up, and redeployed elsewhere. The US, European Union and G7 are all moving to follow Canada’s lead in revoking Russia’s “most favoured nation” trade status, while Belarus’ exiled opposition leader called for tighter sanction on that country, including having it removed from the SWIFT system as well, as she seeks diplomatic isolation of the Lukashenko regime, as well as Canadian recognition of her “government in exile.”

Justin Trudeau’s final stop on his European tour was in Poland, where he met with Ukrainian refugees who had fled across the border. Trudeau later said that Putin would lose the war, and that he would face consequences for his illegal war and the war crimes that come along with it. It has also been announced that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will likely address Canada’s Parliament on Tuesday, which is during the March Break, meaning that MPs and senators will fly into Ottawa for a day, then fly back out again.

Closer to home, the Chief of Defence Staff says that Russia’s re-occupation of its Cold War bases in its far north are of concern to Canada, and that we shouldn’t be complacent. General Eyre’s big challenge remains recruitment, however, which is not going to be an easy nut to crack, particularly as culture change is still underway within our military ranks. Of course, we should also remember that it’s extremely unlikely to face any kind of northern invasion because it’s simply not feasible. Seriously.

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Roundup: Asking the parochial questions

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On day fifteen of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they bombed a children’s hospital in Mariupol, at a time that it was supposed to be under a ceasefire. And it’s not surprising that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is still insisting on “closing the skies,” but that wouldn’t stop the shelling from artillery and missile batteries on the ground, and yes, it would draw the rest of NATO into a shooting war with a nuclear power. So while he’s justified in asking for the assistance, it would not actually improve the situation and would most likely wind up making things a whole lot worse. To make matters worse, a power outage at Chernobyl means that it could start leaking radiation unless power lines are repaired, which requires a cease-fire in the area, so that’s alarming. And all of the chaos is making it hard for aid efforts, including those by Canadian non-profits to reach those in the country who need it.

Justin Trudeau, Chrystia Freeland, Mélanie Joly and Anita Anand were in Berlin yesterday for more meetings on the situation in Ukraine, and Trudeau vowed that Putin would face justice for his war crimes under the International Criminal Court. He also announced another $50 million worth of military aid being sent to Ukraine, and that he had invited Zelenskyy to address Canada’s Parliament, much as he did the UK’s earlier this week. On a related note, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg addressed the Ottawa Defence Conference yesterday and said that while Canada is playing a “leading role” in NATO’s response to the invasion, he is still calling for more military spending (which may not do any good given that our military doesn’t currently have the capacity or personnel to spend its current allotment).

And then, during a media availability with Freeland and Joly, a CBC reporter demanded to know why they were in Europe for “photo ops” rather than doing important work back home. And I can’t even—especially when he went on about the “taxpayer’s dime” when he tweeted about the exchange, trying to make himself sound put out by being smacked down about it. Aside from the “people are saying” framing, which is both ridiculous and telling, I’m not sure what pressing matters they should be attending to back home. The Commons is on March break this week and next. It’s just such parochial bullshit and the kind of cheap outrage/hairshirt parsimony that the CBC loves to engage in, and we wind up with poorer journalism as a result.

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Roundup: A growing humanitarian crisis

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We are now on day fourteen of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and some of the big concerns are the growing humanitarian ones—not only the inability to safely get civilians out of cities under bombardment, but the fact that in some of those cities, particularly Mariupol, people are trapped with no electricity, little food, running water, or medical supplies. Meanwhile, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the British Parliament via video, and called on them for even tougher sanctions against the “terrorist state” Russia. The US has decided to ban all Russian oil and gas, while corporations like McDonald’s and Starbucks have decided to suspend operations in Russia (though more likely because the ruble is nearly worthless and not something they want to be doing business in).

Justin Trudeau was in Latvia for NATO meetings, where he announced that Canada’s mission there would be extended for several more years. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also made the point of warning Russia against attacking any supply lines supporting Ukraine within NATO territory, citing that it would trigger Article 5. Poland also floated the idea of sending fighter planes to a US/NATO base in Germany to then somehow send to Ukraine, but the Pentagon nixed the idea as unworkable.

All of this talk, of course, leads to yet more questions about military spending in Canada, and that “two percent of GDP” target, which is a very poor metric.

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Roundup: More nuclear concerns with more shelling

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We are now into day thirteen of Russia’s (stalled) invasion into Ukraine, and things don’t seem to be advancing much more at the moment. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted a video showing that he was still in his office working, citing that he was unafraid, while photos circulated of Ukrainian forces taking out the supply convoy for the stalled convoy that has been stuck on the approach to Kyiv for days now. Meanwhile, Russian forces destroyed another nuclear facility—this time an atomic physics lab, which also provided medical isotopes to the country, so that’s a very bad thing.

Justin Trudeau was in London yesterday, where he met with Boris Johnson and Mark Rutte of the Netherlands to discuss more coordinated actions and further sanctions against high-ranking Russian officials, in advance of further meetings later in the week. Trudeau did make mention of possible higher military spending, but as we discussed yesterday, it’s hard to see how that will help if we already can’t spend what we’re allocating currently because of capacity constraints. Trudeau also pledged support for Europeans in getting off of their dependence on Russian hydrocarbons, but in spite of what Jason Kenney seems to think, we have no current LNG export capacity nor can we build any anytime soon, so this support will appear to be more geared toward their own green transition rather than to Canadian-sourced product.

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Trudeau also met with the Queen yesterday, and they apparently chatted for some 45 minutes, when a usual audience lasts 20, so that’s a promising sign. It was her first event post-COVID, and it was nice to see her back on her feet again.

https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1500825664634687488

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Roundup: Questions about Putin’s motives

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It’s now day twelve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it appears to remain fairly stalled, but shelling continues. There had apparently been an agreement with Russia for a ceasefire to allow the evacuation of Mariupol, which they did not then live up to, making civilian evacuations all the more difficult in the area. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy worries that Odessa will be the next city to be targeted. And because Ukraine is considered Europe’s breadbasket, this is going to drive up the price of grain, further fuelling inflation, and there seems to be little idea of how this conflict could end considering where we are at currently.

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Something else we’ve seen over the weekend are a number of analyses of what Putin might have been thinking when he made the decision to invade. While I would recommend you read this post from Dan Gardner, there is also this thread by a former Russian foreign minister which also sheds a bit of insight (not fully replicated below, but just some key highlights).

On a related note to this conflict is the hope or at least speculation that this will mean that we’ll finally be serious about our defence spending in this country, but that relies on some poor assumptions, one of which is that the current government hasn’t been spending. They have, and they can’t actually spend any more because of capacity constraints within the Forces, not only in terms of our fairly broken procurement process, but mostly because they simply don’t have enough personnel. We have a major recruitment shortfall, and that severely limits their ability to actually spend their budgets. But let’s hope this doesn’t derail the efforts to fix the culture within the Forces that is proving a detriment to recruitment and retention, because you know there will be voices calling for it.

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Roundup: Prepping for a Euro trip to coordinate more sanctions

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As day ten of the Russian invasion of Ukraine picks up, there wasn’t the same drama around any nuclear facilities, though it now seems that Russia is in control of the Zaporizhzhia facility that they had been shelling the other night, so that’s not great. Ukraine’s requests for a no-fly zone continue, even though it’s not going to happen because that would drag NATO into a shooting war with Russia, which is a nuclear power, and that is a Very Bad Thing. Justin Trudeau made the point yesterday that we need to keep ourselves out of a situation in aiding Ukraine where NATO forces are put in direct confrontation with a Russian soldier, while the hope remains that the ongoing sanctions create the conditions for those around Putin to force him to stand down, because they have been so effectively crippled. But we’ll see. In the meantime, a warning about cyber warfare escalation in this conflict—they have not deployed their full arsenal, and that’s probably for the best.

Trudeau, meanwhile, will be heading to Europe for a series of meetings starting on Sunday, along with Anita Anand, and starts off in London (where he will have an audience with the Queen), then Latvia, Germany, and Poland. It sounds like part of what is being discussed are the next steps in tightening the screws on Putin and his regime, so coordination with allies could be a good and necessary next step.

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Roundup: Fears over a fire at a nuclear plant

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At the start of day nine of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there was a lot of tension and drama as Russian forces shelled the nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia, leading to concerns that a fire could lead to some kind of Fukushima-style meltdown, particularly after firefighters were also fired upon. In the end, it turns out that the fire was a separate building and that the reactor was fine, with no changes to radiation levels, but it was nevertheless a huge concern for a few hours, and which president Volodymyr Zelenskyy to proclaim that Russia has targeted their nuclear reactors as a form of blackmail. It’s really, really a bad situation.

In terms of Canadian contributions, new shipments of lethal aid were announced yesterday morning, along with new punitive measures against Russia and Belarus, removing their “most favoured nation” status (they now join North Korea as the only countries without it), and slapped tariffs of 35 percent on all of their products (though as was pointed out, this is still less than tariffs that our dairy cartel forces upon imports from out allies and trading partners). Canada is leading calls to have Russia’s membership in INTERPOL suspended. On top of this, new streamlined immigration and refugee processes were announced that will take two weeks to fully implement, during which time those wishing to come to Canada can get their biometric data sorted at consulates in countries surrounding Ukraine, as they had beefed up their capabilities ahead of time. Of course, this also raises questions as to why this kind of expedited process hasn’t been made for other refugee groups (though the obvious reply is that Ukrainian refugees are making it to European countries with more resources).

The Toronto Star’s editorial board caught up with Mélanie Joly between her visit to Poland and meetings in Brussels, where she reiterates once again that no, a no-fly zone is not going to happen, particularly because Putin is an irrational actor. Elsewhere, Chrystia Freeland warned that there could be severe consequences if any Canadian heads over to Ukraine to join the fight as it may not be legal to do so (and this is a fight over the international rules-based order), and Anita Anand added that if they want to sign up, they should enlist with the Canadian Forces (which has a 10,000 person shortfall at present).

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