Tag Archives: Russia

Roundup: Doug Ford broke the fact-checker

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It’s now approximately day ninety-eight of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian forces have captured half of the city of Severodonetsk in a “hail of grenades,” while fierce street fighting continues. A rocket strike also hit Sloviansk, also in the Donbas region, which killed three and wounded six. As previously mentioned, the Russian strategy seems to be to try and take the Donbas region as fast as possible, before more heavy western weapons arrive, and lo, it looks like the US will be sending medium-range rockets to Ukraine after a promise that they wouldn’t fire them over the Russian border. Meanwhile, here is a look at Médecins Sans Frontières treating civilians wounded in the fighting near Ukraine’s front lines, and how it’s at a scale they have never faced before.

Closer to home, the Toronto Star’s attempt to fact-check Doug Ford for a week wound up being an exercise in misery, as he “broke” said fact-check system. Now, to be clear, the Star’s whole fact-check exercise between the federal and provincial elections has been fairly risible. It’s not a good system where you take everything the leaders say for a week each, and then evaluate them based on number of falsehoods per time spoken. And because it’s done by someone for whom politics is not their regular beat, they don’t have enough context to know whether what is being said is true or not, and a lot of stuff is being given a pass that shouldn’t be precisely because they don’t know enough of what is going on to have a reasonable bullshit detector throughout. This having been established, Ford still broke their system by barely speaking at all, and when he does, it’s largely in generalities that can’t be easily checked, and it makes it easy for him to get caught up in exaggerations that also wind up getting a pass. Still, he did still lie a lot, particularly about the situation he inherited, but the fact-check system is pretty useless, so why bother?

Nevertheless, this is now the second election where Ford has largely been a blank slate, with little in the way of policy other than his previous move of rebating licence plate stickers, and his promise to expand a highway as though it will do anything about congestion (which it won’t because induced demand). There is no contest of ideas because it’s content-free, and nobody wants to call this fact out even though it is utterly corroding our democracy. But it seems to be a strategy that works for him, and which the media in this province seems to be fine with, because they have given him the easiest ride humanly possible, and it’s just so dispiriting. How are we a serious province?

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Roundup: Cynicism around new gun laws

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We’re now on or about day ninety-seven of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the fighting has intensified in Sievierodonetsk, which Russia is trying to take before more Western arms arrive in Ukraine’s hands. Meanwhile, here is a slideshow of life in Mariupol now that the Russians have seized the city after laying waste to it.

Elsewhere, Europe has been trying to institute a ban on Russian oil in order to cut off Russia’s finances, but this has only been partially successful. To that end, all imports coming by sea have been banned, but crude by pipeline is still being allowed, which is only about a third of the total volume. Hungary has been a holdout in this, because they want guarantees that their oil supply security will be maintained (and Orban has been something of an ally of Putin, so that doesn’t help matters any).

Closer to home, the government used the opportunity of the most recent school shooting in the US to table their latest gun control legislation, which includes a freeze on handgun sales or transfers in this country rather than an outright ban, as well as a mandatory buy-back programme for assault-style rifles, and a new “red flag” system for licenses. While there isn’t a lot of daylight between the parties on these issues, there is nevertheless some very crass cynicism deep within the Liberal proposal. Matt Gurney lays a lot of it out in this thread (which I won’t reproduce entirely here because it’s long), which is worthwhile considering.

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Roundup: Brown’s poor choice of words

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It is approximately day ninety-six of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia has stormed the city of Sievierodonetsk after trying unsuccessfully to encircle it. Some 90 percent of the cities buildings are damaged, and Russian forces have not cared about civilian casualties. At the same time, president Volodymyr Zelensky ventured out of Kyiv and visited the city of Kharkiv, and thanked the Ukrainian defenders in that city who pushed the Russian invasion back on that front.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is getting new shore-to-ship missiles from Denmark while howitzers from the US are arriving, and it is hoped that these missiles can help better defend their coast line (and possibly sink the Russian Black Sea fleet in the process). Also, here is a look at those evacuating from cities like Lysychansk in eastern Ukraine.

Closer to home, Patrick Brown is trying to walk back on his calling social conservatives “dinosaurs” in his book, saying it was a “poor choice of words.” But he was trying to make a point in the statement that those dinosaurs are becoming less relevant to the party, which in Ontario especially, tends to mean that you need to go on bended knee to Charles McVety and his particular ilk so that you can get their endorsement, which Doug Ford was certainly willing to do, and Brown was not, instead trying to expand the party membership through other ethno-cultural communities that could go around that traditional social conservative membership bloc. And I’ve heard certain Conservative organisers say that they want “open memberships” like the Liberals have in order to grow the party away from being beholden to the social conservatives—erm, but maybe you should just adopt more centrist or mainstream policies that will attract more people to the party if you want to move away from that particular base. Mind you, there is a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation in that those members will keep fighting to keep the policy book in their favour, but there is also no guarantee that “open memberships” will help you organise around these social conservatives any differently either. Suffice to say, if the party wants to grow away from this base, it requires a lot more organisational ability than they seem to be demonstrating to date.

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Roundup: Deficit is coming in lower than expected

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It is on or about day ninety-four of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian forces are claiming that they have captured a rail hub in Donestk, while they continue to pound Severodonetsk, with some 90 percent of the city’s buildings damaged. Ukrainians are calling for Western allies to deliver weapons faster, though there is talk that it looks like this aggressive push by Russia has depleted their arsenal.

The invasion is also not accidental in terms of location or timing—the eastern part of the country are a trove of natural gas and critical minerals, and when Russia invaded, it cut off Ukraine’s exploration of natural gas reserves in the Black Sea, which could have been used to help wean Europe off of Russian oil and gas. Because aren’t all wars really about resources?

Closer to home, the Fiscal Monitor was released, and the deficit figure is coming in much lower than anticipated, because in large part the economy is overheated which is generating a lot of revenue (and inflation does help in terms of collecting higher taxes on higher prices). But as Kevin Milligan points out, this means that the obsession by the Conservatives with the deficit is becoming really misplaced—the massive spending in 2020 to get us through the pandemic is behind us, and we’re not in that situation anymore. Not that facts matter—this is really an exercise in people’s feelings about the deficit, and the perceptions that are not grounded in facts.

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Roundup: Cancelled committees because of the human toll of hybrid sittings

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It is now approximately day ninety-three of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian forces have shelled more than 40 towns and villages in the Donbas region, while they try to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. It also sounds like Russia has lifted the age restriction for voluntary military service, which gives you a hint that they need more troops because the invasion has not gone well for them. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is asking Western allies for rocket systems to repel Russian forces from the Donbas, before the cities and towns in the area become “uninhabited.”

Closer to home, it looks like the realities of the finite resource of Parliament are finally starting to hit for MPs and senators, and more and more committee meetings are being cancelled as there simply aren’t enough interpreters to go around, exacerbated by late-night sittings, and more than anything, the fact that they keep finding excuses to extend hybrid sittings no matter that they know full well that the use of Zoom is causing injuries to the interpreters, and most of them know that they can’t simply hire more as there are no more to hire. They literally cannot graduate enough to replace the ones who are retiring or whose injuries are forcing them from the workplace (especially as they risk permanent hearing loss). And MPs simply don’t care. Worse, they passed a motion last week to create yet another special committee, as if they had the resources to do so. Because they don’t care. It’s all about show, whether that’s the Liberals and NDP patting themselves on the back for being “good examples” of working from home, or the Conservatives’ constant filibustering and wasting of time that drags out proceedings, which taxes the interpreters even further (and isn’t helped by the fact that they refuse to wear masks in the Chamber).

I’ve stated this before, and I’ll keep saying this—it is morally reprehensible for MPs and senators to keep demanding hybrid sittings when they know the human cost it takes on the interpreters. They could easily organize themselves in safer ways to have in-person meetings, which won’t strain the interpreters, and that they could have something that resembles normal operations as a result, but they refuse, because too many of them have grown to like the hybrid sittings, so that they don’t have to travel. Who cares if a human being is suffering injuries and facing the possibility of permanent hearing loss? That MP doesn’t have to travel, so that’s what counts. It’s absolutely unconscionable, and they should be shamed for it.

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Roundup: The painful French debate

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It is now on or about day ninety-two of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk are becoming pivotal battlefields that Russian forces are trying to encircle. Russian missiles also struck the city of Pokrovsk, as part of the offensive in the Donbas region. Russia, meanwhile, is trying to accelerate their granting citizenship to people in captured areas, in order to somehow legitimise their occupation of the territories. Russia also has allegedly offered to open up Black Sea access so that Ukrainian grain can flow to the world market and avoid a food crisis—but only if the West lifts sanctions on Russia. So weaponizing food security is not above Putin’s regime.

Meanwhile, Swedish and Finnish diplomats are in Ankara, Turkey, to discuss NATO membership, and to assuage Turkey’s concerns about their perceived support for Kurdish groups that Turkey considers to be terrorists. Sweden has denied providing financial or military support for these groups.

Closer to home, it was the French debate in the Conservative leadership race last night, and it was…challenging to watch. Most of the French was not good, and they largely read prepared statements with halting and rehearsed attack lines against one another, which was not cute. Most of the night was spent with Pierre Poilievre, Patrick Brown, and Jean Charest going at one another, while Scott Aitchison, whose French was better than he let on, stayed out of the fray, and Roman Baber and Leslyn Lewis struggled to be even coherent (not that Baber is coherent at the best of times in English, considering that he’s an utter moron). The topic of inflation was painful because they kept insisting on policies that would fuel inflation and denouncing policies that would tame it, because of course they would, and there was an attempt to corner Poilievre on Law 21 and religious symbols, as he has been saying different things in English and French. As expected, Charest mopped the floor with his competitor on French ability alone, but his closing remarks, exhorting party members to reject Americanised politics, may simply go over like a lead balloon in a party base who thinks that Poilievre is their guy because he’s pugilistic and wants to fight like this was American talk radio. None of it leaves much room for optimism as to the direction of the party.

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Roundup: Competing nonsense lawsuits

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It’s now approximately day ninety-one of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian governor of Luhansk says that Russian forces are advancing from all sides. Another 200 bodies have been found in Mariupol, where Russian forces have been pounding the city to rubble.

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There is also talk about Vladimir Putin having survived an assassination attempt after the invasion began, and Kremlin insiders are discussing a possible successor to Putin as discontent grows with the course of the war. So that’s going well.

Closer to home, I think the situation in New Brunswick is about to do my head in, as two competing lawsuits are colliding—the challenge to the appointment of a unilingual lieutenant governor, and a frivolous lawsuit challenging the fact that the premier violated the “fixed election date” in calling an election. The lieutenant governor suit is going down on appeal because the reasoning in the original decision is a constitutional impossibility (one part of the constitution cannot override another, which the ruling does). And the challenge to the election call is a dead letter because simple statute cannot bind the Crown prerogatives in this way, and Democracy Watch keeps losing this suit every time they attempt it, not to mention that you cannot undo an election. When a legislature is dissolved, it’s dissolved (and no, the UK ruling on prorogation is not the same thing). This is all nonsense and eating up court time unnecessarily, but this is where we’re at.

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Roundup: Pandering to a false narrative, Quebec edition

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It is now on or about day ninety of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and we have the first war crimes conviction, as the tank commander who pleaded guilty last week to killing civilians has been handed a life sentence. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Russia is waging “total war” intended to inflict as many casualties as possible, and destroy as much infrastructure as they can. Zelenskyy also addressed a gathering of the World Economic Forum in Davos, and he told assembled global and economic leaders there to apply “maximum sanctions” to Russia.

Meanwhile, Belarusians are joining the fight on Ukraine’s side, hoping that it will eventually help topple the regime in their own country. As well, the dreaded Russian hackers have not proven effective in the Ukraine invasion, and have themselves been the successful target of government cyber-operations and hactivists, so perhaps their reputation is not as deserved as it has been.

Closer to home, Quebec is close to passing Bill 96, which expands its language laws to almost absurd levels, including forbidding the use of English in nearly all circumstances, and there are concerns that the bill allows for warrantless searches in order to enforce it. (There CBC had an explainer here,  but beware the both-sidesing).This is all predicated on the notion that French is “declining” in Quebec—erm, except it’s not. Census data shows that, and the only decline was where French was the “mother tongue,” meaning that its decline may be because of immigration, most of whom learn French is fairly short order (though this is one area where Bill 96 is again overreaching—and they wonder why they have a labour shortage). Unfortunately, every federal party including the Liberals have bought into this narrative, and are not challenging it very hard. Some Liberal MPs have been to protests in opposition to the bill, which the Bloc freaked out about in Question Period last week, to some minor pushback from the Liberal Quebec lieutenant, but it’s not a good sign when any party refuses to call out a blatantly false narrative because they are afraid it will lose them needed votes. Such courage!

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Roundup: Enjoy your Victoria Day

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It’s now approximately day eighty-seven of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia says that they now have full control of the steel plant in Mariupol, and by extension the whole city. That means Russians are starting to pull back forces from the area to redeploy elsewhere in the Donbas region, and it looks like fighting is intensifying in the Luhansk region.

Closer to home, it is Victoria Day this weekend, which is the official birthday of the Queen of Canada. So be sure to raise a toast to the current Queen, and Canada’s first Queen (and maybe while you’re at it, the Queen of the North).

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Roundup: Theorizing about Kenney’s slow-motion demise

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It is now on or about day eighty-six of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia claims that some 1700 Ukrainian troops have surrendered from the steel plant in Mariupol, which Kyiv won’t confirm. Kyiv is also hoping to negotiate prisoner exchanges, but Russia sounds like they want to prosecute this troops as part of their “de-nazification,” which is complicated by the fact that this particular battalion does contain some of the far-right troops fighters that have blackened the reputation of Ukrainian forces. It also remains to be seen if Russia will respect their obligations around prisoners of war, and given how much they have broken international law so far in this invasion, that is a very fraught question indeed. Speaking of trials, the Russian soldier who pleaded guilty to killing a civilian is asking the widow for forgiveness. (She said she wants a life sentence, unless he’s part of a prisoner swap for the Ukrainians captured from Mariupol).

Closer to home, it has been decided that Jason Kenney will stay on as premier and party leader on a caretaker-ish basis, until the party choses a new leader (which, apparently, he has not ruled out running in again, either out of arrogance or self-delusion). Either way, he’s not going away anytime soon, and despite his insistence that this is about “uniting” the party, I am left with the recollection of what a bitter Thomas Mulcair did to the NDP once he was pushed out, but stayed on as a caretaker leader while their leadership process took an interminable length of time.

This has nevertheless had some conservatives, federally and provincially, doing a bit of soul-searching as to what it means that Kenney got things wrong. While my own thoughts about this will be in my weekend column, Ontario conservatives are insisting that it’s because Kenney embraced his right flank while Doug Ford kicked his out and is still surviving. (Ford also didn’t need his to the same extent Kenney does). Some federal Conservatives are warning against panicking, while others are warning against polarised politics, and still others see a movement afoot in the party that caters to siege mentality, fuelled by American right-wing media, that causes them to see everything in oppositional terms.

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