Tag Archives: RCMP

Roundup: No, that’s not how inflation works

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Because some of you at the back still don’t get it, no, carbon pricing does not contribute 16 percent of inflation. It contributes 0.15 percent, because inflation is a year-over-year measure, and when the increase is steady and holding, the actual impact on inflation is negligible, because that’s how inflation works. But several of you you keep insisting that your math is correct when it’s not, and so here’s economist Trevor Tombe to try and get it through to you:

https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1720919364172697678

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian missiles struck a shipyard in occupied Crimea, damaging a Russian warship there. There are conflicting reports about the state of the counter-offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region, where Russia claims they have halted any advance, while Ukrainians say that they continue to advance, albeit slowly. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pushes back against the notion that they have entered into a stalemate, and says they need more air defences so that Russia can no longer dominate the skies. Here’s a look at Ukrainian soldiers who have turned to jiu-jitsu after losing limbs in the war.

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Roundup: A primer on inflation calculation

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Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem testified at the Commons finance committee earlier in the week, and a whole lot of people, including a certain “Food Professor” charlatan and numerous Conservative MPs, demonstrated that they don’t understand math or inflation as they all misconstrued the numbers that Macklem gave. And they’re the same number he has given before—that the carbon price has had a 0.15% effect on inflation, and if you removed it, going from $65/tonne to 0, it would have a temporary effect of reducing inflation by 0.6%.

A whole bunch of people–said charlatan, those MPs—insisted that because 0.6% is 16 percent of the 3.8% of headline inflation, that it means that the carbon price is responsible for 16% of inflation, which is wrong and not how inflation is calculated. Removing it wouldn’t actually mean inflation would go from 3.8% to 3.2% because the carbon price is not driving it. Energy and food prices are doing a lot of the driving there (and food prices are being hugely affected by climate change), and even if it did move to 3.2%, the Bank isn’t going to start lowering interest rates until it reaches the two percent target. Essentially, you’d be killing the carbon price and undoing the work it’s doing to lower emissions on the basis of a bad lie that it has made life unaffordable.

Meanwhile, here’s economist Stephen Gordon breaking down how inflation is calculated, with the inevitable conclusion that the carbon price is just noise—it’s not driving inflation, and it’s better to focus on the things that are.

A threat to democracy

A bunch of people got the vapours yesterday when Mark Miller called Pierre Poilievre a threat to democracy. Apparently these same people have convenient amnesia, or wishful thinking that he’s only kidding in what he’s doing and saying, because nobody learned a gods damned lesson from the Trump years.

Ukraine Dispatch:

While rallying Ukrainian troops, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy counselled patience and not to expect instant success (the latter comment directed primarily toward Western allies). A UN report says that 40 percent of Ukrainians need humanitarian support as a result of the conditions brought about by Russia’s invasion.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1719348496640200777

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Roundup: Conservative MP is trying to get journalists killed

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Conservative MP Rachael Thomas is doubling down on her accusation that CBC is somehow “complicit in the blood bath of Hamas” because they don’t use the word “terrorist,” and I just can’t. It’s a not that this is just deeply unethical, and grossly immoral, and it’s unconscionable that she has been making a career out of not just outright lying to the public, but engaging in this weird and dystopian world-building where she talks straight-faced about the prime minister being a “dictator,” and that the kinds of garden-variety CanCon regulations that have dominated the Canadian media space since the 1960s at least is some kind of evil censorship regime. This particular sociopathic accusation goes beyond all of that, and has entered into the ghoulish territory of looking to get someone killed, while she does her damnedest to undermine their independence and the freedom of the press in this country.

The Conservatives have been expending a great deal of energy in recent years into de-legitimising legacy media, primarily the CBC, but really anyone else who might challenge them on any of the mendacity that pervades everything they do now. Part of this is because they are trying to replicate the kinds of divergent media ecosystems that now pervade the US, where you have wholly separate realities between what’s on Fox News, and what’s on CNN or MSNBC. This is what they’re after. It’s dangerous, it’s anti-democratic, and it’s already causing serious damage to our country.

And the worst part? That legacy media doesn’t know how to deal with this threat, so they just both-sides harder. We’re already so far down this path and we keep ignoring the exit signs because we think that it be as bad as it is in the US. We need to wake up. This isn’t going away, and the Conservatives aren’t going to suddenly get reasonable during or after the election.

Ukraine Dispatch:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that the Russians have lost at least a brigade’s worth of troops trying to advance on Avdiivka (which could be anywhere between 1500 to 8000 troops, depending), and it’s believed that losses of this magnitude could undermine Russian offensive capabilities elsewhere. Meanwhile, US defence contractors are starting to ramp up production—and revenues—as a result of Ukraine, and now Israel.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1717894154233974970

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QP: Trying to make “quadruple” happen

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While the prime minister was in town and due to make an announcement shortly after QP, neither he nor any other leader were present today. Melissa Lantsman led off, and laid out a network of supposedly shady dealings around the ArriveCan app development. Arif Virani said that they were aware of the allegations and there was an RCMP investigation underway, so they would not comment. Lantsman tried to equate this scandal with people using food banks, and Virani repeated his same response. Lantsman repeated the same assertion, and this time Sean Fraser stood up and pointed out that the Conservatives’ record doesn’t stand up to their rhetoric. Pierre Paul-Hus took over in French, and he gave Quebec-specific food bank figures to tie it to the ArriveCan app development. Virani got up to give the French version of his statement. Paul-Hus cited a survey about Quebeckers being worried about their mortgage renewals, which they blamed on government spending. Rodriguez stood up to say that Quebeckers are afraid of Conservatives because all they care about is cuts.

Alain Therrien led off for the Bloc, and wanted the government to cut immigration numbers because of housing supply issues. Fraser said that it is possible to welcome arrivals and build new housing at the same time, and that they signed a housing agreement with Quebec. Therrien repeated the same demand, and this time Marc Miller said that as a Quebecker, he recognises the need for higher immigration.

Heather McPherson rose for the NDP, and she demanded immediate action for homelessness in Edmonton. Fraser for back up to say that they have been working to build more homes and doubled support for homelessness. Bonita Zarrillo said that those solutions would not help this winter, and demanded immediate action (because they have a magic wand?) Fraser repeated his same points about the support they have been provided.

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Roundup: Bad behaviour on committees for clips

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The Commons Access to Information, Ethics and Privacy committee released their report on foreign interference yesterday, and much of it was marked by recommendations to do things like finally implement a foreign agent registry (which the government is working on and has been undertaking consultations), and to fix issues that were the subject of leaks from national security agencies. The Conservatives, however, were not on board with the recommendation for web giants like Google and Meta to be held accountable for the spread of disinformation on their platforms, much in the way that the European Union has been doing. The Conservatives claim they are concerned about free speech and journalistic independence, but I have my doubts about that, because cynically, I suspect it’s in their self-interest to be able to continue spreading their own disinformation over these platforms and they don’t want to be accountable for that. Predictably, the Conservatives also used their dissenting report to demand forensic audits of the Pierre Elliott Trudeau Foundation, even though there is no avenue for the government do really do this as it’s an independent non-profit corporation, and the initial endowment from the government is not at issue in all of the various conspiracy theories that the Conservative shave been pursing.

As for their concern about journalistic independence, they told on themselves some more as their fight to try and haul CBC management to answer questions on their coverage of Hamas and the use of the word “terrorist” took over the Heritage committee with a heated exchange, and Conservative MP Rachael Thomas vowing to make it “hell” for the chair if she didn’t get her own way. Peter Julian kept trying to tell her that the president of CBC, Catherine Tait, is already scheduled to appear next week on other matters, but Thomas kept up this dog and pony show so that she could get clips of her being “shut down” by the committee. But seriously, it is not up to Parliament to make demands of CBC’s coverage, and for the party to claim they respect journalistic independence while pursuing this vendetta just shows how much they are invested in their bullshit, and how willing they are to erode democratic norms (like the independence of the public broadcaster) in order to score a few points.

This use of committees as clip-gathering for social media was also on full display at Status of Women, as MP Michelle Ferreri staged another such stunt, by demanding a study on violence against women on transit as an “emergency,” while Liberal MP Anita Vandenbeld objected because the study she had been trying to launch for months now on the mental health of women refugees who faced sexual violence would be pushed back yet again. Ferreri claimed that she wasn’t doing this for clips—and then put out a shitpost attacking Vandenbeld. It’s shameful that committees are being used like this.

 

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian forces continue to pound Avdiivka in the east, while Ukrainians say their defensive line is holding. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that they will continue to put their own pressure on Russian-occupied Crimea, and that increasing strikes have force the Russians to pull out their fleet as they are no longer to safely operate it from there. Elsewhere, Ukraine’s justice minister says he’s willing to go after the country’s oligarchs for embezzlement, fraud, and money laundering.

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QP: A committee chair tells on himself

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The prime minster and all other leaders were present today, which is nice to see. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he raised that the Parti Québécois “independent budget” and that they claim that Trudeau is leading Canada to financial ruin. Justin Trudeau said that he would get to the questions in a moment but took the opportunity to pay respects to the shooting in Sault Ste Marie. Poilievre insisted that separatism was off the table under the Harper years because of low taxes, which is risible, to which Trudeau shrugged it off and praised his government’s actions to help people. Poilievre switched to English repeated his same claim about separatists before pivoting to the carbon price and blaming it on inflation, shrinks-flatiron, and “skimp-flatiron.” Trudeau suggested that Poilievre was guilty of conflation, and noted the Conservatives only want to cut. Poilievre went on a tear about the RCMP Commissioner being shut down at committee and the ArriveCan investigation, and cried corruption. Trudeau said that if the Conservatives were digging up matters that were settled years ago, they were desperate. Poilievre then pivoted again and demanded to know if the PM believed Israel fired on the Al-Ahli hospital in Gaza. Trudeau said that they needed to ensure they had the facts, and the best evidence was that Israel did not do it.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, praised Poilievre for bringing separatism back to the floor of the Commons, before turning to discussing with the US about a truce in Gaza. Trudeau said that he did speak to Biden over the weekend and they were working to a humanitarian solution. Blanchet wanted to know what happened to the idea of party leaders getting together to speak on this with a single voice, and Trudeau said that time will be set aside for such a meeting.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, raised the dubious story about the Calgary senior whose mortgage went from $1000 to $2600 per month (which is impossible), and demanded help for Canadians. Trudeau said that he was just in Singh’s hometown of Brampton to announce more housing plans. Singh switched to French to raise the tent encampment in Gatineau while the prime minister was hosting a fundraiser there, to which Trudeau praised the signature of a housing agreement with Quebec, details to be forthcoming.

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Roundup: Abusing authority to summon the RCMP Commissioner

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The abuse and beclowning of House of Commons committees continues apace, as the Conservatives tried to use the Access to Information, Ethics, and Privacy Committee to re-litigate the SNC-Lavalin scandal after Astroturf group Democracy Watch floated some bullshit last week about how the RCMP said they couldn’t investigate if a crime occurred because they were denied access to Cabinet-confidential documents. Never mind that no crime was ever alleged, but this was more than enough for the Conservatives to try to resurrect this dead horse, and they did so by the committee chair abusing his position to bring the head of the RCMP to testify at committee. The other parties at committee, however, were having none of this because of the abuse of procedure, and shut down the meeting, to howls of outrage by Conservatives who wanted their dog and pony show for the cameras.

https://twitter.com/MonaFortier/status/1716549067180736827

We’ll likely see said RCMP Commissioner invited back in a proper fashion in the next week or two, because the Bloc have stated that they want to hear from him, but with proper notice and preparation, so they’ll get their dog and pony show eventually. It won’t do them much good—the Commissioner told CBC on his way out of the building that there was nothing to tell, that the RCMP was satisfied that there wasn’t anything illegal once they did their due diligence, even if they couldn’t get those documents. It won’t satisfy the Conservatives or Democracy Watch, who will continue to allege conspiracies and dark deeds, and howl at the moon about cover-ups, because that’s how they get attention. (But seriously, media outlets—stop quoting Democracy Watch. They actually have no credibility and it’s a sign of lazy reporting if you rely on their quotes as a crutch).

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces say they shot down 14 drones and a cruise missile attacking the country’s south and east, but falling debris damaged a warehouse in Odesa. Russian forces pressed their attack on Avdiivka in the east, and Kupiansk, further north.

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Roundup: Another diminished Auditor General Day

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It was Auditor General Day yesterday, and she had five reports that weren’t terribly complimentary of the government and its efforts, especially as some have been in the works for years and are making progress that is far too slow for the task at hand.

  1. In spite of working to make changes to the processing, there is still a massive backlog of permanent resident applications at Citizenship and Immigration, as well as a major problem with asylum claims that are taking years to be processed.
  2. The efforts to combat racism in government departments and the RCMP are falling short (which is not a huge surprise because this government has a particular problem of saying “intersectional” and “GBA+” and assuming that it will magically fix things rather than doing the actual hard work).
  3. The work to modernise the critical IT infrastructure of the government, particularly when it comes to delivering services Canadians rely on, is getting worse and Treasury Board doesn’t have plans yet on how to replace some of it (which should be alarming).
  4. Modernising the delivery of benefits like CPP, EI, and OAS is behind schedule and facing cost overruns, because of course it is.
  5. Canadians can’t get access to critical antimicrobial drugs as drug resistant strains get worse, and while data collection is improving, there remain gaps in access, which the Pandemic made worse.

You might also note that only three of those five items had news stories attached to them, and not all five. Even more to the point, two were Canadian Press wire stories, one came from the Globe and Mail, and that was it. The National Post had their own version of the immigration story, but of the major outlets, that was all that got covered. It used to be that on Auditor General days, the lock-up room at the OAG was packed, and each outlet sent several reporters to ensure that most of the reports got adequate coverage (some of the special audits of Crown corporations excepted). What we see now is a sad indictment of just how diminished our media capacity is, and how little value we are placing on these reports, which is a problem.

Ukraine Dispatch:

New overnight attacks focused on both the north and south of Ukraine, but no casualties have been reported yet. Russian forces resumed their onslaught of the eastern city of Avdiivka, which Ukrainian forces continued to hold at bay. Russians have also stepped up their bid to re-take the city of Kupiansk, which was liberated late last year. Meanwhile, Ukraine is looking to fill 2000 judicial vacancies (and we thought it was bad in Canada), while also looking to vet the current roster of judges for malfeasance as they work toward cleaning up corruption in order to meet the conditions for acceptance into the EU.

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Roundup: Scoring cheap points in a tragedy

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The past few days have been preoccupied by the Hamas attack on Israel, which has killed as many as a thousand, including attacking villages and killing the elderly and infants. We know that so far, two Canadians have been confirmed killed, while others have been kidnapped and taken hostage. After refuting claims that the embassy in Tel Aviv was closed for Thanksgiving, the federal government is preparing airlifts for Canadian citizens and permanent residents out of Tel Aviv, likely using military aircraft. Ahmed Hussen has also stated that humanitarian aid will continue to flow to the Palestinian people, particularly in light of the humanitarian crisis that is to come as the Gaza strip is under siege, with assurances that there are robust controls to ensure that Hamas doesn’t see any of this funding (as they are listed as a terrorist organisation under Canadian law).

Back home, there has been pretty universal condemnation of Hamas from political leaders, but that doesn’t mean that politics haven’t been played. After Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre were at the same event over the weekend to show solidarity with the Jewish community, Poilievre decided to immediately return to his dickish self and try and score points on the non-scandal that Canada was not included in a communiqué between the Americans, the UK, France, Germany and Italy. A number of pundits and talking heads clutched their pearls and cried that we were excluded, some news reporters incorrectly framing this as the G7 (which was also minus Japan), when it turned out that this was a meeting of the Quint, which is a separate, nuclear-armed organisation that Canada is not a part of. While most reporters and outlets quickly clarified this, Poilievre decided to use it to rage-farm and claim that Trudeau has “side-lined Canada,” which is bullshit, but you’ve got a bunch of pundits on their fainting couches over this when they should know better, and Poilievre couldn’t resist the urge to score points over this, which should be unconscionable, but he likes to keep proving that there is no bottom with him.

Matt Gurney points out that this conflict has given us a pogrom in realtime over social media, but that most people aren’t seeing it because of how news outlets sanitize the graphic elements that would inevitably galvanize them.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russia’s latest drone attack targeted the Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions, with Ukraine’s air defences downing 27 drones. The counter-offensive continues to make gains in the east and the south. Ukrainian officials are investigating 260 instances of abuses at military recruitment offices, much of it related to bribery. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy replaced the country’s territorial defence forces commander, before he left to visit neighbouring Romania to strengthen ties and talk regional security.

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Roundup: A backbencher breaks ranks

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There are tongues wagging because backbench Liberal MP Ken McDonald has twice now voted with the Conservatives on their performative motions to cut the carbon price. McDonald, who represents a rural riding in Newfoundland and Labrador, complains that the carbon price is making life too unaffordable for people in regions like his that have no choice but to heat their homes with heating oil and to drive trucks, but along the way he seems to have missed the rebate payments, which are enriched for rural Canadians in the provinces where the federal price is the system in place. (He also thinks that Steven Guilbeault is the wrong person to sell this policy because he’s too entrenched as an environmentalist).

I have some particular difficulty with this notion that there is a particular helplessness around rural Canadians when it comes to their fossil fuel use, because there are usually options that they simply ignore—at least there are in places like rural Alberta, where I’m from, but maybe it’s different in rural Newfoundland. In any case, the government has any number of programs to retrofit homes with better insulation, to exchange oil heaters for heat pumps, and too often, the notion that “I need a truck because I live in the country” tends to mean that people buy fuel-inefficient F-150s that are actually less useful for their needs than they like to pretend. In addition, the carbon price has a negligible effect on inflation, and McDonald was repeating some of the Conservatives’ talking points that don’t necessarily reflect reality so much as they “feel” like they could or should be true even though they’re not, and that’s a problem. Simply cutting the carbon price won’t have a real impact on prices, would mean not getting the rebates, and more to the point, would not push people to make changes to reduce their exposure to those prices where they can, and we need an all-hands-on-deck approach to emissions reduction.

As for McDonald, he doesn’t seem to have suffered any particular consequences for these votes, which is fine, and he shouldn’t because we should allow MPs to break ranks on some issues. That’s how things should work. But I do worry that the bigger issue here is an inability to communicate the programme and the solutions available to help his constituents instead of just buying into the Conservative lines.

Programming note: I will be taking the full long weekend off because oh boy do I ever need it after the past three weeks. See you Wednesday!

Ukraine Dispatch:

A Russian rocket struck a café and grocery store in Hroza, in the Kharkiv region, killing 51 people including a six-year-old, which is one of the deadliest single strikes. In addition, other strikes his grain silos in Izmail. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in Granada, Spain, to meet with EU leaders and plead for more aid, now that the budget showdown in the US is endangering their contributions.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1709968477107138925

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