In the wake of the statements in the Commons earlier this morning on the ongoing protests and blockades across the country, the benches were full and all of the leaders were present for QP. Andrew Scheer led off, mini-lectern on desk, and he read some of his same condemnation for the government not dealing with the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs in favour of those who support Coastal GasLink. Justin Trudeau noted that they are concerned with dialogue, and that he invited other parliamentary leaders to discuss the matter but not Scheer because he disqualified himself after this morning’s statement. Scheer insisted that Trudeau was elevating “professional protesters” with those Indigenous communities that wanted these projects, and demanded a date for the blockades to come down, and Trudeau reminded him that they need solutions for the long term. Scheer decried the lack of action, and Trudeau said that they needed to ensure there was long-term partnership so that Canadians could rely on their transportation network rather than short-term violent action. Scheer again tried to insist that Trudeau was pandering to activists, and Trudeau reminded him that the Conservatives couldn’t get projects built because they would pick and choose who they would engage with. Scheer got increasingly breathy and high-pitched as he demanded action, and Trudeau reminded him that five years ago, Canadians chose parties who were committed to reconciliation. Yves-François Blanchet was up next for the Bloc, and he expressed his concern that Québec and Canada’s image was one where Indigenous communities were opposed to development, and wanted some clarity on the timeline for when blockades would be lifted. Trudeau stated that they were still committed to dialogue, and that was the first step to lifting the barricades. Blanchet asked for future meetings on the issue, and Trudeau said that he was open to that — for parties that wanted to engage constructively. Jagmeet Singh was up next, and demanded to know when the federal government would meet with the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs, but they were waiting on them. Singh wanted concrete action now, but pivoted to record-keeping on Indigenous kids in care, go which Trudeau reminded him that child and family services were provincial jurisdiction and they were working to devolve that to First Nations themselves.
Tag Archives: Rail Safety
Roundup: The meaningless debate over Teck Frontier
The debate over approval of the Teck Frontier oilsands mine is reaching completely absurd levels, right up to warning that this will be an existential crisis for Confederation if the federal government rejects it. There is a fight brewing within the Liberal caucus, and Jason Kenney’s bombast is back to its dangerous stoking of anger for promises that nobody can deliver on. Conservative talking points, as with Kenney’s, are full of complete mistruths about the proposed emissions targets of the mine if it goes ahead, and they exaggerate the initial environmental assessment, which was skeptical about many of the claims the company made about their emissions. That Teck has promised to try and be carbon neutral by 2050 is also something that should be taken with a massive grain of salt because they haven’t outlined how they’ll get there, and it sounds an awful lot like technosalvation – that they hope to develop some miracle technology between now and then.
And it’s just so stupid because it’s unlikely that the project would even go ahead even if it were granted approval, and yet this is somehow supposed to be the great saviour of the Alberta economy. It won’t be. Teck has stated that even if they get approval, they would need another partner, more pipeline capacity, and the price of oil to be at least $75/barrel, and it’s currently sitting around $50, and unlikely to start climbing anytime soon as the global supply glut continues, and the shale boom in the US continues to drive down prices.
Nevertheless, a number of outlets are reporting that the federal government is preparing a fiscal rescue package in the event that it doesn’t get approval, which people are already panning as tone deaf, and the death knell of investment in Canada, but not one of them is looking at the current economics – that even if approved, it’s not financially viable, and as Andrew Leach points out, there are plenty of other approved projects that are not moving ahead because it’s not economically viable. Should the government prepare fiscal rescue packages for that eventuality too? The problems in the province and in the sector are not the fault of the current federal government, as much as people like to blame them. It’s a bigger, structural problem that has been decades in the making, and the ship isn’t going to be turned on a dime. Blaming Trudeau won’t solve anything.
Here's what Suncor did today, at the project that is closest in every respect to Frontier. A $2.8 billion write-down on its share of the project. Pro-rated, that's a $5.25 billion dollar decrease in the value of the project. That's ~ $1.25b decrease in Teck's share of it.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) February 7, 2020
Suncor's realized value for Fort Hills bitumen (a good proxy for Frontier) was $48.96. Their cash operating costs were $28.90 $28.65. That doesn't include maintenance capital or any return on capital in place.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) February 7, 2020
Pro-rate that up to Fort Hills size, and it's not getting any return on $20b initial capex in 40 years.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) February 7, 2020
Meanwhile, if you think this is somehow related to the former Bill C-69 and its environmental assessment process, it’s worth a reminder that this assessment process is under the process that the Harper government put into place, and even then, it’s not like this project is getting anywhere. That should be another signal.
The regulatory framework around Frontier, CEAA 2012, explicitly continued political decision making rather than technocratic ones. If you don't like that, I can think of a few people with whom you can discuss those choices.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) February 7, 2020
QP: Melting down over court challenges
While the prime minister was off meeting with big city mayors before heading off to Ethiopia, Andrew Scheer was indeed present, and he led off and he read a bunch of complete lies about the supposed plan to “license” media, to which Steven Guilbeault, who reminded him that the panel recommendations specifically excluded news media and the government would not regulate news media. Scheer insisted that wasn’t good enough and the report somehow would impact free speech, and Guilbeault repeated his answer in English. Scheer tried again, and Guilbeault said that he would be happy to sit down with the opposition when they tabled a bill. Scheer then moved onto UNDRIP, and claimed it was an effective veto on energy projects, to which David Lametti said that they were moving ahead with legislation that would be co-developed with Indigenous people. Scheer tried to use the scare tactics of veto powers, and Lametti suggested that Scheer look at BC’s UNDRIP legislation and see that it is not a veto. Alain Therrien led off for the Bloc, and he railed about the Court Challenges Programme funding a challenge against Quebec’s “secularism” bill, for which Guilbeault said that the government doesn’t have any control over that funding, and that they Bloc should understand the notion of independence. Therrien asked if the government supported the challenge, to which Pablo Rodriguez said that the legislation is being challenged by Quebeckers and that the government was following with interest. Jagmeet Singh was up next for the NDP, and demanded changes to the federal bankruptcy laws to prioritise workers, to which Navdeep Bains said that they had made some commitments in the last budget. Singh then demanded to know how much had been spent on legal fees for the challenge around the First Nations compensation, to which David Lametti said that reports of legal fees are calculated according to a set formula.
Roundup: Trying to play the tough guy
Now that the Ethics Commissioner’s report is out in the open, the Conservatives are doing their best to try and capitalise on it – both with the coming Ethics Committee meeting (that is going to be shut down), and in Scheer trying to look tough on the issue. After calling on Liberals to essentially turn on Trudeau – something that would be far more effective if this were the era of caucus selection of leadership so that they could hold him to account – he also decided to take matters into his own hands at the National Acadian Day festivities in Dieppe, New Brunswick, earlier this week. When Trudeau spotted Scheer in the crowd, he came over to shake his hand, and, camera rolling, Scheer told him “You have to stop lying to Canadians. You need to come clean.” Trudeau, true to form, responded with a nonchalant “Oh, this is a good day today,” and went back to glad-handing with the crowd. Scheer has been trying to make the video go viral, but…he looks kind of awkward in it, like his attempt at being tough and in Trudeau’s face were essentially laughed off. I’m not sure how this bolsters Scheer’s case, but, well, he’s trying to convince his online audience of it.
There were also tongues waving and actual salivation over the revelation that the RCMP had been in touch with Jody Wilson-Raybould after the allegations first surfaced in the Globe and Mail back in February, but nothing has come of it since, and PMO assured the CBC that they had not been contacted by the RCMP. (I find it hard to believe anything will come of that either, given that there’s nothing they could charge them with – and no, this can’t possibly be obstruction of justice because a DPA is not getting off scot-free).
Meanwhile, a bunch of people are trying to be clever about Trudeau’s refusal to apologise for this situation by contrasting it with all of the various official apologies he’s made for historical injustices, as though there can be a actual equation of the two. Worth reading, however, is this thread from a legal analysis of the Ethics Commissioner’s report, and it pokes a number of holes in it, rendering it all the more problematic (which isn’t to say to say that there wasn’t any wrongdoing).
QP: Praise for our own leader’s plan
With Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh at the D-Day anniversary ceremonies, and Andrew Scheer elsewhere, it was up to Candice Bergen to lament the increased inspections of pork going into China, to which Marie-Claude Bibeau stated that they were encouraging all industry members to be extremely vigilant in their exports. Bergen demanded to know why a new ambassador had been appointed, to which Mélanie Joly noted that Canada is working with allies to call for the release of the detained Canadians. Bergen decried the deteriorating relationship, and Joly assured her this was a priority file. Luc Berthold took over in French to rail about the pork industry being impacted, and Bibeau repeated her earlier answer. Berthold demanded an ambassador and a WTO complaint, and Bibeau said that she agreed there was no issue with quality of Canadian exports, and that our representative at the WTO did raise the issue. Peter Julian was up next for the NDP, and he read some outrage about the KPMG client tax settlement, and Marc Garneau read that settlements are entered into in an independent process but the government was asking for more transparency going forward. Ruth Ellen Brosseau read her own repeat of the question in French, got Garneau to read the French version of his answer. Brosseau then read TVA was announcing layoffs and blaming competition from web giants, to which Pablo Rodriguez stood up to say that the Conservatives didn’t address the issue for ten years but they were working on legislation. Julian got up to read in English that web giants be made to pay their fair share, and Rodriguez again blamed the Conservatives for inaction.
QP: Scheer on repeat
Wednesday, caucus day, and still no real answers as to what actually happened in the SNC-Lavalin/Wilson-Raybould Affair. Andrew Scheer led off in French, asking about today’s Globe and Mail report that Trudeau had a meeting with Jody Wilson-Raybould about the SNC-Lavalin file after the Public Prosecution Service opted not to go for a remediation. Trudeau stood up to talk about standing up for jobs and all good things, but didn’t really answer. In English, Scheer wanted to know who asked for the meeting, but Trudeau deflected, saying there are processes underway, but they stood up for good jobs while respecting judicial independence. Scheer asked again, and this time Trudeau invoked Cabinet confidentiality, but Canadians could rest assured they were acting in the best interests of Canada. Scheer wanted to know if he was aware of the Public Prosecution Service’s decision when he had the meeting, but this time Trudeau reminded him that there are ongoing court cases that he couldn’t answer about. Scheer tried again, and Trudeau noted the thousands of jobs at stake while they were standing up for the independence of the judicial system and the processes that keep the county safe. Guy Caron got up next for the NDP, and in French, he too tried to put SNC-Lavalin lobbying on a timeline regarding that meeting, and Trudeau repeated that they defend jobs while respecting the system, and he read a quote from the Director of Public Prosecutions in order to back up his case. Caron demanded to hear from Wilson-Raybould, and Trudeau re-read the quote that the Attorney General exercises their powers apart from partisan considerations. Charlie Angus reiterated the question, with added melodrama and sanctimony, and Trudeau repeated the same answer and the English version of the quote. Angus wondered if Trudeau would testify before the justice committee, and Trudeau noted their independence, before praising Gerald Butts’ contributions.
QP: Didn’t request any redactions
Both Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer were present for a change, and Scheer led off by concern trolling Trudeau’s comments about the negative impacts on rural and remote communities when large numbers of construction workers come in, and demanded gender-based analyses of the cancellation of Northern Gateway and importing oil from Saudi Arabia. Trudeau responded with a list of projects the government approved before adding that some projects can have different impacts. Scheer railed about the jobs lost when Northern Gateway didn’t go ahead, to which Trudeau reminded him of the record unemployment but stated that they were looking to help Alberta to do well. Scheer demanded Northern Gateway be reinstated, to which Trudeau read quotes from the Federal Court of Appeal decision on why it wasn’t approved. Scheer demanded again that Northern Gateway be reinstated, and Trudeau called them out for bluster that wouldn’t help Alberta, reminding them that even if the project was acceptable, it would be years before it would get resources to markets. Scheer then changed gears and put on his tinfoil hat about the UN global compact on migration, to which Trudeau accused him of quoting Rebel Media, and praised Canada’s diversity. Guy Caron was up next, and railed about the redactions in the NSICOP report, to which Trudeau told him that neither he nor his office was involved in the redaction, but they took the advice of security officials. Caron then tried to wedge in the Raj Grewal investigation as an excuse for redaction, and Trudeau repeated his answer. Charlie Angus tried again in English and Trudeau called out his sanctimony before repeating the answer. Nathan Cullen then gave a torqued concern that Raj Grewal’s parliamentary privilege protected him from investigation — which isn’t true — and Trudeau raised Dean Del Mastro as an example of an MP under investigation whose privilege didn’t shield him.
Roundup: Notley mandates a cut
Alberta premier Rachel Notley decided that she will mandate an 8.7 percent production cut, starting on January 1st, in the hopes that it will help to finally drive the price of oil back up, seeing as this is a supply and demand problem and there is too much supply in the system. But as far as “immediate action” goes, waiting another three weeks doesn’t seem very immediate (though I’m not sure what is involved in scaling back production), and it’s not a solution that makes everyone in the market happy given that some players weren’t taking as big of a hit by the large price differential.
Reaction has been swift, and while Jason Kenney says he supports it, he and Andrew Scheer are quick to blame the federal government for the situation. Natural resources minister Amarjeet Sohi responded with a thread that basically said that they inherited most of these problems – and he’s right about that – but he laid out the supports they’ve given the industry. I’m not sure that in the race to pin blame that anyone is looking at the history of the industry – there was no push to sell oil to overseas markets before recently because America was always seen as an easy import market with an insatiable appetite, because nobody saw the shale revolution coming. That’s no one government’s fault, and it’s difficult to turn an industry around in a mere couple of years. And Kenney and Scheer keep insisting that if Trudeau hadn’t killed Northern Gateway or Energy East, things would be just fine – except of course that it’s just as likely that Gateway would still be tied up in interminable court injunctions because it was the more fraught project to begin with, and Energy East wasn’t economically viable once Keystone XL was back in the picture, but why spoil a narrative with facts?
Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s new premier is hoping to revive Energy East, under the belief that it was just regulatory problems that killed it rather than the economics, particularly because the proponent didn’t have enough supply contracts to fill both it and Keystone XL. Also, the proponents who think this will displace foreign oil know that unless they shell out to retool the existing refineries, it won’t actually serve their markets, and that they would also be demanding that Alberta swallow a $10/barrel discount, right?
QP: Turning Canada to a vassal state
It being the Thursday before a constituency week, the benches were getting a bit thinner, and none of the leaders (save Elizabeth May) were present. That left Alain Rayes to lead off, reading concerns about the Americans being able to weigh in on a potential trade deal with China, and wondered what Canada got in response. Marc Garneau got up to read that the ability to withdraw from an agreement was normal. Rayes railed about all of the various concessions made, and Garneau was “mystified” that the Conservatives didn’t applaud them for getting a deal. Michael Chong was up next, and raised our sacrifices in World War I before complaining that the Article 32 in the new NAFTA makes Canada a vassal state. Garneau insisted there was no loss of sovereignty, and that any party could leave the agreement with six months’ notice. Candice Bergen was up next, and she whinged that Trudeau acted like a bully and called them names on the issue of Tori Stafford’s killer. Jean-Yves Duclos got up to read that politicians can’t make determinations about the sentencing of individual prisoners. Bergen proposed a broad policy of preventing child killers from going to healing lodges, but Duclos repeated his script. Karine Trudel led off for the NDP, worrying about the steel and aluminium tariffs still being in place. Garneau got up to read that the tariffs weren’t justified, which was Canada was retaliating. On a second go-around, Garneau gave the same response, this time without script, before Tracey Ramsey repeated the question in English, with a bit of added condemnation. Garneau reiterated the response in English, and for her final question, Ramsey demanded a task force to help small businesses affected by the tariffs, and this time, Garneau took a few shots a the NDP’s dislike of trade agreements.
QP: Playing politics with a child murderer
While the PM was fresh off the plane from New York to attend QP, just in time for his photo-PMQ exercise. Andrew Scheer led off, reading some condemnation about a child murderer being transferred from a federal prison to an Aboriginal healing lodge. Trudeau said that they have asked officials to review the decision. Scheer repeated the question in English, demanding action and not a review, and Trudeau read the same response in English. Scheer demanded that the PM reverse the decision, and this time, Trudeau read a response from Steven Blaney when he was minister in 2013 about the government not controlling the security classification. Scheer insisted that the government had tools to use to reverse the decision, to which Trudeau said that she was always classified as medium security, and they were ensuring that people do their jobs. Scheer laid on the fears that parents have about this kind of killer, and Trudeau said he would let Canadians make the determination as to who is politicising the situation, and that the prisoner in question remained in a medium security facility. Ruth Ellen Brosseau led off for the NDP, pointing to outstanding gender inequities in the Indian Act. Trudeau responded that they had taken great steps, but still had work to do. Rachel Blaney repeated the question in English, and this time Trudeau read a statement saying that the numbers in the media were inflated and incorrect, but they were still working to reform the Indian Act. Niki Ashton demanded housing for First Nations, and Trudeau said that they were moving forward to correct the situation with $8.6 billion in investments, and that their forthcoming National Housing Strategy has an Indigenous component. Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet repeated the question in French, and Trudeau reiterated the same response.