Tag Archives: Prorogation

Roundup: Unrealistic Ring of Fire promises

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Pierre Poilievre was in Sudbury to pronounce that if he forms government, he’ll set a deadline of six months to approve any federal permits for mining in the “Ring of Fire” region in Northern Ontario, and put $1 billion toward connecting roads in the region to the highway network (to be paid for by cuts elsewhere). Absent from his pronouncement? Any representatives of the First Nations in the region, for whom consultation and cooperation is necessary (and yes, most of the First Nations in the region were not thrilled when they heard this). Poilievre says that there aren’t shovels in the ground because the Liberals have a “keep it in the ground” mentality, which is hard to square with the fact that they have been moving ahead on plenty of other critical mineral projects that are better connected to existing infrastructure, the pipeline they bought to get oil to tidewater, and the fact that oil and gas production are at record highs. So much keeping it in the ground! He also didn’t learn a single gods damned lesson from the Harper years, where trying to slash the review process for big projects only meant that they wound up in litigation.

Meanwhile, a group of energy sector CEOs are demanding that, because of the trade war, the federal government use “emergency powers” to approve more resource (mostly oil and gas) projects, which seems hard to square with the fact that a) there isn’t much in the way of emergency powers that could be deployed, let alone that could affect provincially-regulated projects; b) that they are vague on the market for these products if they’re not going the US, particularly as there is little in the way of cross-country pipeline infrastructure or the fact that the East Coast isn’t going to want to pay a premium for western Canadian oil; or c) the changing energy market means that they seem to be advocating to build a bunch of assets that would be stranded before too long. As this is going on, Danielle Smith is trying to pass yet more unconstitutional/useless legislation to prevent the federal government from acquiring oil companies’ data for their planned emissions cap, because yes, everything is that stupid.

On a related note, you have farmers and Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe urging capitulation to China in order for them to lift their canola tariffs, which were placed in retaliation for the EV tariffs (which in turn were done at the Americans’ behest under Biden in order to protect the EV industry they were trying to build from Chinese dumping). Well, China just executed four Canadian dual-nationals on drug-related charges, in spite of pleas by the Canadian government for clemency. It’s a message that they’re not looking to seek our favour in spite of the fact that Trump has turned against us (and his other allies). Caving to China on this canola issue is not going to work out well in the long term, because they know this is a pressure point that they can exploit. They have exploited it in the past, and it’s why they’re doing so again, and if we cave again, they’ll just move the goal posts and make more demands of Canada that will be harder and harder to resist.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia claims that Ukraine is trying to sabotage the moratorium on striking each other’s’ energy facilities after a drone strike on an oil depot. Ukraine also attacked an airfield near a Russian strategic bomber base in southern Russia. Russia and Ukraine each swapped 175 prisoners, one of the largest exchanges to date.

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Roundup: Carney’s transition races out of the gate

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The day after the leadership race concluded, the transition began. Mark Carney had meetings with Justin Trudeau, and met with the caucus, albeit fairly briefly, as things got underway. We learned that he’s chosen MP Marco Mendicino as his chief of staff, which sounds like it’s on an interim basis (because Mendicino apparently has designs on running for mayor of Toronto), but so long as it means Katie Telford is out of the job, that’s what matters. Carney promised the transition would be swift, and it sounds like he wants a pared-down PMO. We also learned that Carney has already put his assets, minus personal real estate, into a blind trust and submitted all of his disclosures to the Ethics Commissioner, well ahead of schedule, which blunts the Conservatives’ attacks on his wealth. (To be clear, the rules state he has four months to disclose after being sworn-in, and he’s now disclosed even before being sworn-in). The one thing I found surprising was that Carney has reached out to Jean Charest to offer him some kind of senior role, including possibly a ministerial portfolio, and that Charest declined, with talk from the reporters saying that he may also be reaching out to Christy Clark.

As for Trudeau, he held his final Cabinet meeting, and was photographed carrying his chair out of the House of Commons (as the rules allow MPs to buy their chair when they leave politics).

On the trade war front, Doug Ford went ahead with the 25 percent “surcharge” on electricity exports (but it’s not a tariff, because that would be a federal trade power), and insists he’s looking into turning off the electricity if things get worse (which may actually be impossible given the interconnection of the grids). In response, Trump’s commerce secretary continued to threaten further tariffs on steel and aluminium, dairy, lumber, and “reciprocal” tariffs where they misunderstand that the GST is on all goods and not just imported ones. BC premier David Eby wants the federal government to drop their tariff fight with China, citing farmers and BC industry being hit on both sides (but seriously, do you think China is a good-faith actor here?).

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia has launched airstrikes overnight in Kyiv, while their troops are attempting to break through in the northeastern Sumy region, across the border from Kursk. In Kursk, Russian forces continue to advance, but Ukraine’s top general insists they are not at risk of being encircled. Ukraine claims that they have hit oil refineries in two Russian regions.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1899104651527524818

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Roundup: Moving onto the dairy front

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The trade war seemed slightly more stable yesterday as the reprieve on most goods seemed to be holding, but it took no time at all for Trump to start musing about new, invented grievances and irritants. The latest is the dairy sector, for which there are limits as to how much the US can export to Canada tariff-free, but again, Trump has blown this out of proportion in his own mind. And as a result, he threatened 250 percent tariffs on Canadian dairy…but we don’t really export to them, certainly not liquid milk in large part because of the Supply Management system, so that would have very little impact on our industry.

The thing that did have people worried was fresh news out of the New York Times that Trump’s annexation talk has moved into threats about tearing up boundary treaties, particularly around things like the Great Lakes and cross-border river systems, and moving into things like shared military operations and NORAD, and after the floated threats about the Five Eyes a couple of weeks ago, it’s hard to ignore any of these threats, and why there needs to be a very concerted effort by the government to make plans for how we’re going to deal with this once it happens, because we know that nothing is off the table with Trump any longer.

I’m generally not into White House drama, but following it becomes more necessary than I’d like to admit these days. To that end, here is a look at an explosive meeting in the Cabinet room where several cabinet secretaries unloaded on Elon Musk, which wound up reining him in (somewhat, for now). But oh, man, the absolute stupidity of what is happening in that administration is boggling. As well, here’s a look at how framing the Trump presidency through the lens of reality television helps to make some of the chaos make a little more sense.

https://twitter.com/josheakle/status/1898212255604568305

Ukraine Dispatch

After the US cut off military aid, including access to satellite imagery for Ukraine, Russia launched a major missile attack, which targeted energy infrastructure, killed four in the eastern town of Dobropillia, while another five died in attacks in the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian forces within Kursk region appear to be nearly surrounded by Russians, though there have been counteroffensives in the past few days. Ukrainian drones did attack the Kirishi refinery.

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Roundup: Another month of reprieve—maybe

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Less than a week into the trade war, and the Americans have somewhat recanted? But only somewhat. Yesterday they decided to suspend the tariffs on New NAFTA “compliant” exports from Canada until April 2nd, but no one is quite sure what that means. Nevertheless, the Canadian government is still maintaining its first tranche of retaliatory tariffs, and will not remove them until the threat is gone, but they are holding back the second tranche of retaliatory actions until April 2nd, or until Trump abandons his tariff nonsense (which could be never).

We also got word about the call that Trudeau had will Trump earlier in the week, and how heated it got, particularly on the question of dairy imports to Canada, where Trump got profane. More telling was the fentanyl question, where Trudeau pointed out the low seizures (and remember that 43 pounds seized last year was not actually all coming across the border, but apprehended within a certain radius of said border), to which Trump is apparently using a secret metric regarding progress on stopping it—proving yet again that this isn’t actually about fentanyl, and that it remains a legal fiction for Trump to abuse his authority. Also, when asked about Mélanie Joly terming the current state of affairs a “psychodrama,” Trudeau responded that he calls it “Thursday.” So, there’s that. And Trump is now posting on his socials that Trudeau is trying to use the tariffs to stay in power, which is again just him pulling it out of his ass, and MAGA-types in this country are already saying “See! That’s what I’m afraid of!” *sighs, pinches bridge of nose*

Meanwhile, Doug Ford declared that he’s going to impose a 25 percent tariff on electricity exports to three American states as of Monday—but I’m not sure that he can actually do that, because trade and commerce powers are federal jurisdiction. Imposing tariffs is federal. Electricity exports are federally regulated by the Canadian Energy Regulator. But people are also insisting that Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator, which is a government-created entity, can apply a surcharge, which again raises questions about how this doesn’t run afoul of federal trade and commerce powers. And this is Ford we’re talking about, who always talks a big game and very rarely does he actually back it up with anything. I would remain incredibly skeptical of the whole thing.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched another mass drone attack on Odesa, damaging energy infrastructure. Russia claims to have captured another village in eastern Ukraine, Andriivka, but there is no confirmation. While Trump’s lackies are holding meetings with opposition politicians in Ukraine, opposition leader Petro Poroshenko says he’s opposed to a wartime election. Trump is also talking about revoking the temporary protected status for some 240,000 Ukrainians in the US, and could start deporting them.

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Roundup: Leadership hopefuls straying into provincial territory

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It’s practically an iron law of Canadian politics that the longer a federal leadership contest runs, the more likely they are to start dipping into areas of provincial jurisdiction. With the NDP, well, that’s a given because they refuse to understand the very notion that federalism exists and you can’t just wave away jurisdictional boundaries with “political willpower” (aka Green Lantern Theory), but the Liberals are all pretty much at it right now with their various campaigns.

Chrystia Freeland proposed a plan to give incentives for Canadian-trained doctors and nurses to come home, with a big bonus and a promise to get credential recognition “within 30 days.” I’m not quite sure how this is supposed to work because the federal government doesn’t pay doctors and nurses (except in cases where they are working with Indigenous Services for First Nations and Inuit facilities), and credentials recognition is run by provincial professional colleges, where the federal government has no particular sway, so I’m not sure how she plans to make that happen. As well, most provinces have not done the necessary things to attract and retain doctors and nurses, such as properly increasing their compensation, or reforming how they bill the system, so it’s hard to see how the incentives are in place for them to be tempted by her one-time bonus.

Mark Carney wants to incentivise prefabricated and modular homes…but won’t give any details on how, that would happen. And yes, housing is primarily a provincial responsibility, so again, I’m not sure just what mechanism he wants to use for said promotion.

Karina Gould proposed both reforms to EI, which her government has been sitting on for years (and yes, I know people who were working on said project years ago), and also promised to a “path” toward basic income, which is hugely problematic at the federal level because most social services are delivered by the provinces, and it’s incredibly complex to try and figure out the various supports at different levels. The BC government had an expert panel report on how to make it happen, and their ultimate recommendation was not to proceed with a basic income, but to enhance existing supports because often they are better targeted for people with complex needs. Gould seems to have ignored this research, and even more disappointing was that the CP story about Gould’s proposal talked about the NDP private members’ bill and the Senate public bill which called for a “framework” for basic income, but those bills couldn’t actually make it happen. They were empty because those kinds of bills can’t spend money, and would simply have been moral suasion. Unfortunately, progressives have consistently ignored the research on basic incomes, because it’s a solution in search of problems that they are desperate to try, and if Gould wants “evidence-based” policy, this is not it.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians launched 140 drones against Ukraine overnight Wednesday, and strikes damaged port facilities in Izmail, while two of the drones landed in neighbouring Moldova. Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s Andreapol oil pumping station, starting a fire. President Zelenskyy appeared to have visited near the front lines at Pokrovsk, praising the good work of the soldiers there. Zelenskyy also said that he would not accept any bilateral “peace deal” that the US reaches with Russia in which Ukraine is not a participant.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1890070620504985845

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Roundup: Sad skits to demand Parliament’s summoning

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With the “reprieve” now granted, the Conservatives are back to demanding that Parliament be summoned, for…reasons. They have not actually spelled out what they need to legislate, because there are no actual proposals on the table, and you don’t need legislation for retaliatory tariffs (which are currently on hold). There may be a need to give new powers to CBSA around export controls, but we’re not there yet. Nevertheless, pretty much every Conservative MP put out some kind of tweet demanding Parliament be summoned, because it’s all about social media. MP Michael Barrett went up to the West Block to shoot a shitpost video where he tried to open the main doors to the House of Commons, but they were locked, so that he could perform for the camera, but the pièce de résistance here is that those doors are normally open when the House isn’t sitting, and closed when they are, which means that he had to get security to close the doors for him so that he could perform his little skit for the cameras. Just ridiculous.

The thing that nobody is really denying is that their only plan is to have Parliament summoned so that they can immediately call for a non-confidence vote, and the poll numbers are moving away from their previous landslide position because Trudeau is on his way out, and most of his likely successors are also moving away from the carbon levy (which is stupid and self-defeating, but I’m not a strategic genius). Poilievre is hoping to still capitalise on the anger against Trudeau while he can, because the longer it goes, the less the election is going to be about Trudeau or the carbon levy, and it will be more about who can deal with Trump, and Poilievre is far less favourable in many eyes on that front, hence his desperation to go now.

That leaves it up to Jagmeet Singh to determine if any proposals to counter Trump threats would pass, or if the country goes straight to an election and be even less ability to respond to any of Trump’s threats, and he continues to play performatively tough, insisting he’ll pass any measures introduced before the beginning of March, but he’s still voting non-confidence at the end, which…makes no sense, other than he’s still playacting like a tough guy. I would ask why everything needs to be so stupid, but we’re in a cursèd timeline.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile strike killed five and wounded over 55 in the town of Izium in the Kharkiv region. As well, drone strikes hit a railway depot in Dnipropetrovsk region. Ukrainian drones sparked another fire at an oil refinery, this time in The Krasnodar region. Frozen US aid means that funds to support people evacuated from front-line settlements may be in serious jeopardy.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1886757333042098399

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Roundup post: Expediting a dubious legal challenge

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On Saturday, the Federal Court ruled that they would hear an expedited case on the legal challenge of the granting of prorogation, citing the “critical” nature of the Trump tariff threats, and that this somehow requires the legislative branch of Parliament to be operating when in fact it does not.

Part of the problem is that the UK Supreme Court did overturn a prorogation when Boris Johnson requested it in the lead-up to Brexit, which led a bunch of bad actors in this country to decide they could use that precedent to challenge its use here, never mind that prorogations function slightly different in the UK (there, it tends to be an annual affair, separating shorter legislative sessions, which is not how it has operated here in many decades). There should be no reason why that precedent should apply in Canada at all, let alone in this particular circumstance, but we are dealing with people grasping at legal straws because they want to be able to run to the courts when they lose at politics, which is a Very Bad Thing for democracy and our entire constitutional order.

More to the point, nothing was happening in Parliament before the prorogation because of the filibuster, and everyone was threatening non-confidence when it did resume in January, so an election wouldn’t provide Parliament any ability to “meaningfully debate” the Trump tariffs then either. These arguments are specious, and I trust the judge will throw them out of court once the hearings happen, but unfortunately, these are not normal times, and we could be in for a very bad result if government lawyers can’t argue their case well enough.

Ukraine Dispatch

An overnight missile and drone strike killed six, including three in Kyiv. Russia claims to have captured two more settlements between Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. Ukrainian forces claim a pair of attacks on oil depots in Russia’s Kaluga and Tula regions.

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Roundup: First ministers meet about the Trump threats

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Justin Trudeau will be meeting with (most of) the premiers today, to talk about the border plans in advance of Trump’s inauguration. Some premiers will be virtual, however, such as PEI premier Dennis King, who is currently on a bus trip to the northeastern states with a number of officials from the province. And it has already been noted that there are separate media availabilities after the meeting is over—the federal government in one location, the premiers moving to a hotel to have theirs.

In advance of the meeting, we’re hearing more pledges for “border officers” from Alberta, Saskatchewan and Quebec, and Doug Ford was once again chirping about the supposed absence of federal leadership until he had a meeting with Dominic LeBlanc yesterday at Queen’s Park, after which he suddenly changed his tune. At that point, he praised the federal plan as “phenomenal,” which pretty much goes to show that the federal government has been working on it, and that in not responding and lighting their hair on fire with every Trump utterance that they are keeping their powder dry.

I get why Trudeau and the government have been keeping their heads down, but they have also created a problem for themselves. They should probably have been sending stronger signals to the provinces that they are working on said plan and to shut up in public rather than undermine the country’s position, but it’s not like they’ll all listen—particularly those premiers who are keen to suck up to Trump. Nevertheless, if this PMO’s persistent problem is their inability to communicate, they appear to be making no effort to change that on their way out the door. Cripes.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukrainian air defences shot down 58 out of 80 drones in an overnight attack on Tuesday, while Russian forces claim to have taken control of two more settlements in the Donetsk region. Ukraine launched a major missile and drone attack into Russian territory, destroying a storage facility holding guided bombs and struck a chemical plant making ammunition. Ukrainian soldiers are also being forced to deal with suicide attacks by North Korean troops.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1879180179613872494

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Roundup: Trudeau’s slow exit

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And Monday morning, the inevitable happened. Prime minister Justin Trudeau summoned the media outside of Rideau Cottage, and first announced that he had been granted a prorogation until March 24th, and then stated that he had told his children and the president of the Liberal Party that he intends to resign as leader and prime minister once a successor has been chosen in a robust national competition. While he was tinged with sadness, there were still some elements that rankled—he blamed the decision on “internal divisions” in the party rather than a self-aware recognition that he was dragging them down, and that his time had come (or had come months ago and he refused to listen). When asked about Chrystia Freeland, he implied that her version of events was not what happened and that he offered her a chance to work on the most important file but she turned him down (and no, a portfolio with no department, staff, or levers of power, is not a promotion). When asked about his biggest regret, he said that it was that he couldn’t implement ranked ballots (which he never actually tried to do during the whole bloody Electoral Reform Committee process).

Response from other parties was quick. Jagmeet Singh was first out the door with a statement devoid of class or graciousness, and Pierre Poilievre soon followed on with the same. In a video message shortly thereafter, Singh said that he plans to vote non-confidence no matter who the leader is, but well, his mind changes with the cycles of the moon and the phases of the tide. Poilievre also delivered an absolutely psychotic video message about how the “dark days” are nearly over, and near sweet Rhea, mother of Zeus, that is absolutely divorced from reality.

The party now has to come to decisions about the length of the contest, the rules, and how they plan to deal with the potential for any foreign interference that comes with such an open system that doesn’t even have paid memberships (which, I will reiterate, was always a stupid move, and the Alberta Liberal Party, which instigated this kind of scheme, is now pretty much extinct). Those rules will help determine the shape of the race, and who may throw their hat into the ring, to take what could very well be a poisoned chalice.

Here is a high-level look over Trudeau’s political career. The Star has assembled a list of possible candidates for the job, but that’s going to start changing rapidly. There are concerns about what this will do with the response to Trump tariffs.

In reaction, Emmett Macfarlane sees no issues with the prorogation call (which is not unexpected). Susan Delacourt looks back over Trudeau’s political career and the air of inscrutability he has cultivated around himself. Althia Raj wonders about where the party goes next after Trudeau, and if they have enough runway to make a difference. Paul Wells lays out the four main challenges that Trudeau’s announcement has unleashed.

In case you missed it:

My weekend column on Poilievre and the lessons he seems to be eager to take from the “tech broligarchy” that is flexing its muscles around Trump.

My column on how Poilievre’s plan for a “massive crackdown on crime” is predicated on repealing laws that don’t do what he claims.

My weekend column on why there’s no such thing as an “interim” prime minister, and how the Liberals need to consider their next steps in replacing Trudeau.

My Loonie Politics Quick Take points out that the Conservatives’ plan to use the Public Accounts committee to call for non-confidence is a non-starter.

My year-end column on the four main political lessons that we’ve learned (or in some cases, refused to learn) over 2024.

My weekend column on the considerations around prorogation, now vs 2008, and what’s changed and what hasn’t since them.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian forces claim to have taken the stronghold of Kurakhove, but Ukraine says they are still fighting. The fighting appears to have intensified in the Kursk region of Russia with a possible new Ukrainian offensive, and they are saying that Russia and North Korea has suffered 38,000 casualties, with nearly 15,000 of those dead.

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Roundup: Cabinet Shuttle Day today

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Prime minister Justin Trudeau will be shuffling his Cabinet today, and you can bet that there are a whole lot of competing narratives about it. On the one hand, many of these appointments are necessary, because you currently have a few ministers who are doing double or triple duty with complex files, and they need to have some of the load taken off so that government can still operate smoothly, despite the political crisis around Trudeau’s political future. On the other hand, there is a sense that this is Trudeau buying time, that he’s trying to secure dissenting voices’ support, and that these carrots he’s been dangling can bear some fruit among a caucus who is turning against him. Then again, making the shuffle means he loses that last bit of leverage with backbenchers who are calling for his ouster, so we’ll see which narrative winds up winning.

The buzz is that David McGuinty will be getting public safety, which may be a good fit because he may be in a position to implement the recommendations made from the NSICOP reports that he helped author as chair of the committee (but it is also a loss for the said committee with his departure, and the loss of Senator Francis Lankin as the other longest-serving member). It also sounds like Nathaniel Erskine-Smith will get housing, on the proviso that he will run again in the next election after previously saying he was going to bow out, but I also suspect that this will be tough because he can no longer be the maverick truth-teller he was in the backbenches, and will have to follow the PMO line (though he may also prove an effective communicator on the file to counter Poilievre’s bullshit). There is also talk that Rachel Bendayan, Terry Duguid and Darren Fisher will also be getting positions.

Amidst this, the Globe and Mail is reporting on contradictory rumours about Trudeau’s thoughts on his political future—one source saying he’s ready to go and is figuring out his exit plan, another source saying that he’s determined to stay put, with a third source saying he was ready to go but that Dominic LeBlanc and Marc Miller talked him out of it, and that Katie Telford is ensuring that he hears from supporters and not dissenters. It remains a chaotic mess, but one can only hope that the first source is correct, and that he is trying to figure out an exit strategy, because his remaining in office is untenable.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile killed three and wounded three more in Kharkiv, while another missile hit a residence in Kryvyi Rih, injuring five. Russia also carried out a massive cyberattack on Ukrainian government registries.

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