Tag Archives: Procurement

Roundup: The PBO immolates his credibility

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In their need to constantly frame issues as both-sides, The Canadian Press inadvertently downplayed the severity of what happened with the notice that the Parliamentary Budget Officer quietly put on his website to say that they got some of their analysis on the federal carbon levy wrong. The CP story focused it on a Liberal MP writing the PBO to get him to broadcast the correction, rather than framing the story as the PBO made an error, and giving the briefest of mentions to the MP and his open letter, because that letter shouldn’t have been the story.

The story, as it turns out, is not only that the PBO made the mistake in his analysis, it’s that he is steadfastly refusing to take any responsibility for it, never mind that this particular report has been politically charged and is at the centre of much of the debate over the carbon levy. Putting aside that the report itself was not very well done (the distributional analysis was undermined by his insistence on including average figures and that the calculation on the impact of the price were done in the absence of any kind of counterfactual, and in a binary price/no price way that is in itself inherently misleading, the fact that the PBO didn’t advertise that there was a problem with the report, didn’t include any kind of correction (he’s planning a fully re-done report in the fall), and he’s saying thing that don’t logically follow, such as it’s too complex to recalculate like this…but the outcome from the error is unlikely to change the outcome of that portion of the report (this being the impact on the broader economy, which the Conservatives misleadingly cherry-pick to “prove” households are worse off). So, in addition to refusing to take responsibility, he won’t pick a lane.

But it gets worse. Yves Giroux went on Power & Politics to discuss this incident, and immolated his credibility as he not only continued to refuse to take any responsibility, but tried to prevaricate, and make excuses with a wall of bafflegab, but he also started arguing that his “small office” shouldn’t be responsible for the climate-related economic modelling that MPs are demanding, that the government should be doing it, but his one job is literally doing this kind of analysis to provide an independent analysis from the government’s. Of course, Giroux has always had a problem sticking within the bounds of his legislated mandate, and has preferred to act like a talking head pundit and opining on all kinds of things the government is doing, while still insisting that he’s independent and hence more credible than the government as a result. And I’m not too surprised that Giroux is trying to avoid taking any responsibility, being that he is a career civil servant for whom responsibility is something to be avoided, but in refusing to do so, he has tainted his office. There can’t be trust about his numbers going forward, and as was pointed out, especially if he’s going to be costing election platform promises (which he’s done a pretty shite job of so far, such as sticking his letterhead on Andrew Scheer’s handwaving), but that was something the PBO never should have done in the first place. This should be a resignation-worthy offence, but so should it have been when he decided he wanted to be a television pundit. But we’ll see if he can finally accept responsibility and do the right thing here and step down.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Four people were injured in a Russian missile attack on Kharkiv early Thursday morning. NATO’s secretary general is proposing a way to help Trump-proof military aid for Ukraine, but there will be obstacles that include Hungary’s objections. Reuters has a lengthy look at the front lines in Donetsk.

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Roundup: Recruitment rage-farming

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It’s getting exhausting to think of the number of things that Justin Trudeau is supposedly personally responsible, whether it’s global inflation or the rise in interest rates. Today, it’s apparently the military recruitment crisis that the country faces.

First of all, in his tweet, Conservative MP James Bezan mischaracterized what the exchange between the committee chair and the Canadian Forces officer was, and the Chair said nothing about Trudeau or the government at all. But that’s what Conservatives to when they clip these committee exchanges and try to gin them up to make them look like it’s something scandalous happening, because that’s how they get their clips for their socials. To reiterate—nobody said anything at all about the government in the clip. The Chair was frustrated that the military can’t process potential recruits faster, not the government, because the government doesn’t play a role in this at all.

And even more to the point, Bezan knows this. He was a long-standing parliamentary secretary to successive ministers of defence in the Harper government, and he knows gods damned well that nobody in government approves or disapproves of recruits. But like everything these days, facts or truth doesn’t matter—it’s nothing but constant rage-farming to keep people angry, over the dumbest, most illogical things, because rage-farming doesn’t need to make sense. It’s all about feelings and vibes, and they’re willing to undermine democracy for clicks.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Three people were killed and six wounded in a Russian missile attack on the southern Mykolaiv region, while the Russians claim to have captured two more settlements—one in Kharkiv region, the other in Donetsk. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in Spain, and secured a promise for more air defence systems to help deal with the onslaught of Russian glide bombs.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1795083380192604436

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QP: Gas tax holidays and make-up jabs

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For Monday-on-a-Tuesday QP, the prime minister was off in Philadelphia, but his deputy was present, as were most of the other leaders. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, rattled off some slogans, and accused the Bloc and government of scheming to raise gas taxes when other countries have cut their taxes, and mentioned his demand to cut fuel taxes over the summer. Chrystia Freeland said that she was glad he raised inflation because it allows her to mention this morning’s inflation figures, which showed another decrease thanks to their responsible management. Poilievre switched to English to insist that the government shouldn’t pat themselves on the back because inflation is still 35 percent above target, and repeats the demand to cut gas taxes. Freeland noted that he doesn’t even know that the target is between one and three percent. Poilievre returned to French to insist the target was two percent, and then lambasted the government for not locking in longer-term treasury bonds, meaning higher government interest payments. Freeland insisted he was incompetent, and Poilievre returned to English to call her incompetent, and repeat his lines about treasury bonds. Freeland suggested he was grouchy because he doesn’t like that inflation is at a three-year low. Poilievre switched to a demand to support their motion on banning all hard drugs for all times. Freeland pointed out that Poilievre was wearing more make-up than she was—got a warning from the Speaker—and after withdrawing the remark pointed out that Poilievre was phoney to the core, and that he didn’t really care about the economy or people dying from opioids, but only wants to score partisan points.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and lamented a lack of government interest in the Francophonie. Freeland says that the situation of French in Quebec is not a joke, and they are taking it seriously. Normandin took a swipe at Francis Drouin and the Liberals sticking by him, and Freeland repeated her statement of support for the French language. 

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, raised the pending arrest International a criminal Court warrants for senior Hamas and Israeli officials and demanded to know if the government would support it. Freeland said that they respect the independence of the ICC, condemn Hamas, and doesn’t believe you can draw an equivalence of Hamas’ actions with Israel’s. Singh insisted that it wasn’t the question, and repeated it in French, but got the same answer.

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Roundup: Saskatchewan Speaker’s bombshells

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Things took a dramatic turn in the Saskatchewan legislature as the Speaker, Randy Weekes, has had enough of his own party and government. On Wednesday night, he tweeted a photo of his party membership card being cut up, with the phrase “enough is enough.” And then on the last sitting day of the session, in advance of an election this autumn (so likely his last day on the job), he stood up and read out the harassing texts messages he received, instances where government staffers accosted him outside of the Chamber, and his concerns about the Government House Leader of bringing guns into the legislature, and how he wanted to carry a hand gun.

Some of this speaks to a pattern—Weekes pointed to his predecessors who were also subject to harassing text messages or directions from the Government House Leader, and some left the job as a result. Part of this pattern is also because, frankly, the government is long in the tooth, and has become arrogant and complacent, believing themselves to be on the cusp of becoming an Alberta-esque one-party state. A lot of Scott Moe’s actions belie such a belief, particularly as they have started targeting minorities (like trans youth) for political gain with no actual policy reason for doing so. It’s just in-group identification with the increasingly far-right voices in the so-called “conservative movement” (which is frankly, no longer really conservative), especially as it bubbles up from the US, but also takes inspiration from places like Eastern Europe (and there has been a lot of cross-pollination between the American right and places like Hungary in recent years). And that the Saskatchewan Party is willing to violate parliamentary norms like this is part of that same playbook.

Naturally, Scott Moe scoffed at Weekes’ speech, calling it sour grapes because Weekes lost his nomination battle a few months ago, but it also means that Weekes had nothing to lose, which in a way makes him dangerous to someone like Moe, because he can start dropping truth-bombs with no fear of reprisal (like not having his nomination papers signed). One hopes that this will wake a few people up as to the rot within the government, but we’ll see how it plays out over the coming months in advance of the election.

Programming Note: I am going to take the full long weekend off, because we’re heading into the final stretch in the House of Commons, and I need the break. See you Tuesday.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian artillery crews near the front lines say they are facing more Russian drone attacks than ever before. Ukrainian forces say that they have halted Russia’s advance in the town of Vovchansk, but Russia says they intend to keep pushing forward to Kharkiv. NATO’s top commander says he doesn’t believe Russia has enough troops to make a strategic breakthrough. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Kharkiv, to boost morale in the region.

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Roundup: Wildfire evacuations have begun

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It’s absolutely insane to think that it’s not even Victoria Day, and we are in the middle of evacuations in northern communities because of wildfires. Several neighbourhoods in Fort McMurray, Alberta, have been evacuated—all neighbourhoods that were decimated by the fires in 2016. Fort Nelson, BC, has been evacuated, as has Cranberry Portage, Manitoba, while the premier toured the area.

Meanwhile in BC, a former forestry minister has co-authored a report calling for better integrated government management of these fires in the province, but also points to things like the plans for Indigenous communities to do controlled burns as they used to have not reached levels that would be meaningful, nor have “broadcast burns” from forestry companies, and recommendations for how forestry can better leave sites less susceptible to fire are not being implemented. One has to wonder what the delay is considering how much worse wildfire season gets every year.

Amidst all of this, we still see certain political parties steadfastly refuse to believe this is the result of climate change, and will instead say things like “the carbon price didn’t prevent a single fire” as though that’s how the price is designed to operate, or you have them spreading the conspiracy theories that agents of the prime minister have been setting these fires, because reasons. It’s not good.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine’s forces have pulled back in two new positions near Kharkiv as the Russians advance. Russians conducted air strikes on residential areas of Kharkiv. There is speculation that the move on Kharkiv is merely a ploy to pull forces from elsewhere on the front lines, as they have more of an interest in solidifying their gains in Donetsk. AP spent some time with a drone unit in the region, working to slow the Russian advance.

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Roundup: Fix nominations how?

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Over in the Globe and Mail, Andrew Coyne points to Hogue Report’s comments on party nomination races as a possible vector for foreign interference, and declares that they need to be cleaned up, but declines to say how. He disputes that parties are entirely private clubs, because “Their sole purpose is to seek and wield coercive power over the rest of us. How they go about it is therefore a matter of vital public concern, and regulation in the public interest – at the least, transparency – is entirely justified.”

But how exactly does one propose to do that? Involve Elections Canada with all internal deliberations of these parties, whether it’s a nomination contest, leadership race, or policy convention? While I get the temptation, we have to ask ourselves if any of this is practical, not only because when an election happens, there are a tonne of last-minute nomination meetings, but there are hundreds of registered political parties. Should they only concern themselves with parties that have seats in the Commons? Would they create disparate sets of rules for the big four parties than any others? Could they get away with that in the courts? I’m not sold that this is a solution because it would involve a massive expansion of their powers and bureaucracy, and because they are ultimately reporting to an Independent Officer of Parliament who has no real accountability, the potential for abuse if enormous.

This isn’t to say that things don’t need to change, because they do, but it’s not exactly something that external monitors can fix. In fact, the solution on its face is much less mysterious than it might sound, but it goes back to the original sin of Canadian politics—the decision to remove leadership selection from the caucus to the party membership. Restore this to caucus selection, and you can start separating the parliamentary and constituency party powers again, so that the parliamentary party leader can’t exert outsized influence on the nomination races, and the constituency party is motivated to keep a closer eye on the nomination races, particularly because that’s their job rather than the parliamentary leader trying to stuff the races with its parachute or hand-picked candidates. I would also note that the number of races that would be vulnerable to foreign interference is actually very small, given that you’re not going be able to find diasporic communities in most rural ridings, so again, we should beware what we’re talking about here. I think we need to better appreciate the scope of the problem, and ensure that the right incentives are there for the parties to clean up their own messes rather than involving Elections Canada.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian infantry has been trying to breach local defences in the Kharkiv region, but so far, Ukraine has been holding them off. Ukraine is due to start receiving their first F-16s by summer.

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Roundup: Trying to set up a dog and pony show for Carney

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Because everything is stupid, the Conservatives have announced that they will move a motion at finance committee to call on Mark Carney to appear in order to…talk about his plans as future Liberal leader? Oh, man. It’s so stupid that it hurts. “Since he’s attempting to get as much media attention as possible, he should welcome the Conservative invitation to appear at Committee,” the press release read, which is an indication of how unserious and stupid this is. When asked by media about the invitation that hasn’t come, Carney said that since this was made in the media before the motion was even moved shows that this is just theatre, which of course it is. This is about gathering clips of him criticising the current government wherever possible, or of the Conservative MPs badgering and hectoring him, because they think that’s going to be gold for them online. And there is nothing for Carney to be gained here either—there is no winning against this kind of “debate me, bro!” mentality because it’s not a debate, but an exercise in being caught out, and the only way to get out ahead is to not play.

I’m really not sold on the notion that Carney is positioning himself for a leadership run, particularly at this point in time, and frankly he would be a very, very bad choice. Setting aside the fact that as a former central bank governor, he should stay the hell away from electoral politics for the sake of his successors, there are certain organizational things you need to have to have any kind of chance in politics and I’ve seen no evidence he has this or has been building this. Other Cabinet ministers have been (and have allegedly been warned to tone it down). That, and I’ve talked to people who worked with him before and they’re not of the opinion he’d have the temperament for the job, while the Liberals should see this as Ignatieff 2.0 and run far away from it.

This aside, this is just such a waste of finite time and resources for the committee. Committees are supposed to be doing the serious work of Parliament (as opposed to the theatrical parts in Question Period), and this is a signal that there is no interest in committee work being serious, but only being more theatre and content generation for social media, and that is an appalling state of affairs for our democracy.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian missiles have struck Ukrainian power facilities in three regions, while air attacks on the Sumy region killed two. Russians have also been targeting rail lines in order to disrupt incoming US aid shipments. Meanwhile, two hospitals in Kyiv have been evacuated after comments made by Belarusian KGB officials who claim that those hospitals house soldiers, which could make them targets in coming air strikes.

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QP: Gold heist concerns

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Neither the prime minister nor his deputy were present today, as they started their cross-country sales budget, and I will say it was quite a neat trick where the one day Chrystia Freeland showed up was the day Trudeau gave all the answers, so that nobody can ask her about the budget. As for the other leaders, none of them were present. Melissa Lantsman led off, and raised the biggest gold heist in history and that the suspects are already out on bail (because they’re not violent criminals?) Arif Virani noted that they passed significant bail reform legislation already, and that the budget has measures to combat money laundering and organised crime, and he hoped for their support. Lantsman claimed that the Liberals passed the bill that made this kind of bail possible (not really true—much of the law on bail has been set by the Supreme Court of Canada), and seemed to imply these criminals paid off the government. Virani noted that they have been dealing with the causes of crime, and that bail reform is there for violent, serious offenders with the support of law enforcement, before repeating his exhortation to support the measures in the budget. Lantsman switched to gas prices in Ontario, and falsely blamed the carbon levy, before demanding an election. Jean-Yves Duclos cited that eight out of ten families get back more in the carbon rebate than they pay. Dominique Vien took over in French, and she blamed the carbon levy on the cost of living crisis, particularly in Quebec (where it doesn’t apply). Duclos quoted that Poilievre only created six affordable housing units when he was “minister, and that they just created 173 units in her riding. Vien blamed the government on inflation (again, not actually the cause), and Duclos got back up to repeat the six housing units stat.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and accused the prime minister of threatening provincial transfers if they don’t agree to federal dictates, just like the Conservatives. Pablo Rodriguez noted all the things the Bloc are for that are in the budget, and yet they are threatening to vote against it like the Conservatives. Therrien said the budget was only about pandering, and about securing the election given how much money flows afterward. Duclos noted that it’s not happening in the future, but the 8000 housing units happening now in Quebec.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and complained about the planned elimination of 5000 public service positions rather than subcontracting. Anita Anand noted that these positions were likely to be eliminated through natural attrition. Don Davies raised a report that says the government doesn’t track job creation from subsidies, and demanded corporate accountability. François-Philippe Champagne took the opportunity to praise the investments in the budget.

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Roundup: A dog and pony show at the bar of the House

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There was the extremely rare instance of a private citizen being summoned to the bar of the House of Commons yesterday to be admonished and to be ordered to answer questions—something that hasn’t happened since 1913. The person in question was Kristian Firth, one of the partners of GC Strategies, who was part of the ArriveCan imbroglio, and he was summoned for refusing to answer questions at committee and prevaricating in cases, and was accused of lying to the committee in other circumstances.

As expected, this became a dog-and-pony show from the very get-go, because that’s about the level at which most parliamentarians operate these days. The government didn’t want to ask him questions because he had a doctor’s note explaining he’s being treated for “mental health episodes” and is supposed to avoid extreme stress. Too bad, the Conservatives said, and refused to delay this to another day, and began their own questions, which were theatrical in nature, intended for clip-gathering, and for constructing an alternate reality where the Cabinet was somehow implicated in this whole affair and that Firth was somehow covering for them—something for which there has been absolutely zero evidence, but the Conservatives have absolutely no qualms about lying in order to tarnish reputations and try and paint the government as corrupt, in spite of the fact that there are no links between the political players and what happened on this file. The Conservatives made additional hay when they learned that the RCMP had executed a search warrant at Firth’s home for electronic records in an unrelated case, and they were quick to spread that all over social media along with the clips they had choreographed of this whole exercise. To be clear, nothing new was really learned, most of the Bloc and NDP MPs spent their time soliloquising on the record rather than asking real questions, and nothing has really changed other than the new social content gathered. What a way to run a parliament.

More budget coverage:

Because there weren’t enough stories on Budget Day itself, here are more of the follow-up stories:

  • Here is an explanation of the capital gains changes, and Chrystia Freeland pointing out that this was carefully researched and that the measures help restore fairness.
  • Here are more details on the plans to turn government buildings into housing.
  • The budget promises to redefine what counts as “rural” to qualify for the carbon rebate top-up, but offers no details as to how they’ll do that.
  • There is a measure in the budget about exploring how to make “halal mortgages” more available for Muslim Canadians.
  • The CRA is getting more tools to combat tax avoidance and evasion, including a requirement for more transparency around crypto transactions.
  • Here is a recounting of some of the angry pushback to what’s in the budget (and some of it is complete bunk, others are letting the premiers skate once again).
  • AFN national chief Cindy Woodhouse Neepinak says the budget isn’t sufficient for Indigenous people and wants a first ministers’ meeting on the subject.
  • Disability groups are deeply disappointed with how little the Canada Disability Benefit provides, but government indicates it will go up over time.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1780726502008512549

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian missiles hit Chernihiv in northern Ukraine, killing at least 17 people, while Ukraine attacked an airfield in occupied Crimea. There was also a Russian drone attack against the Ivano-Frankivsk reg9ion in the country’s west, the debris causing fires. Ukrainian soldiers are also accusing Russia of illegally using tear gas on their trenches.

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Roundup: Budget Day, 2024

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It was Budget Day, and as per usual with this government, any fiscal room that opened up, they spent and kept their deficit figures about the same. (Full document here). There were some minor tax increases on the top 0.1 percent and corporations, but apparently not as bad as some of the business lobby feared, though the way some of them went to bat for trickle-down economics this week was…something.

The overall theme has been about “generational fairness,” which they want to push as the Liberals desperately need to reclaim Millennial and Gen Z voters who are currently flocking to Poilievre, not because he has any policy solutions, but because they like his angry vibe (because that’s helpful, guys). And while that may be the theme, nothing I’ve heard suggests meaningful changes to address that generational fairness other than tinkering around the margins, but that seems to be par for the course, especially for this government.

Measures in the budget include:

  • The proposals to “unlock” public lands for housing development
  • The Canada Disability Benefit is in there, but it’s a very low level and there aren’t agreements with the provinces about not clawing it back
  • The commitment to investing in AI and data capacity.
  • More money for Indigenous housing and infrastructure, but never enough for the size and scope of what is needed.
  • Long-awaited details on carbon rebates for small business, but not Indigenous groups who were also promised them.
  • A $5 billion Indigenous loan guarantee programme.
  • Former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is being named to a task force on determining how pension funds can be used to invest more in Canada.
  • Directions for the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada to oversee open banking.
  • There is money for athletes, but not enough for what is needed by Olympians.
  • Higher taxes on tobacco and vaping products to help offset pharmacare costs.
  • Here are ten quick highlights, some of the “winners and losers,” some key numbers and even more highlights.

Meanwhile, some helpful threads about different aspects of the budget:

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1780326465420038220

And here are a few examples of Lindsay Tedds throwing some serious shade at people who don’t understand the capital gains changes. Ouch!

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1780435405021835447

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1780435859806069167

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1780436934340575689

Ukraine Dispatch:

We learned that the destruction of the Trypilska thermal power plant last week was because of a lack of air defence missiles—they intercepted seven missiles, but there weren’t enough for the remaining four inbound missiles, and the plant was destroyed. (Thanks, America!) President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signed the mobilisation bill into law, and it should take effect within a month. Here’s a look at the coming battle around Chasiv Yar.

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