Roundup: A better than anticipated fiscal picture

The Department of Finance’s fiscal monitor was released yesterday, showing that for the first quarter of the 2022-23 fiscal year, the government ran a $10.2 billion surplus, which is not a big surprise considering that the economy is overheated, and that’s generating a lot of revenues, particularly with high oil prices. Of course, this comes with the caveat that Q4 tends to book a lot of the expenses and liabilities that drag the figure down at the end of the fiscal year, but it’s a promising sign, and it’s certainly showing that all of the wailing and gnashing of teeth about the government’s spending and deficit has been largely for naught, and that maybe Chrystia Freeland is a better fiscal steward than they think she is.

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Ukraine Dispatch, Day 184:

As overnight shelling continued near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, people in the vicinity have been issued iodine tablets in the event that there is a catastrophic failure and containment is breached, releasing radiation. So that’s cheery.

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Roundup: Premiers pleading poverty while demonstrating largesse

Ontario premier Doug Ford met with Maritime premiers in New Brunswick yesterday, and wouldn’t you just know it, they demanded more federal healthcare dollars while simultaneously saying that throwing money at the problem wouldn’t fix things, so they want to go to more private delivery. The problem, of course, is that Ford didn’t even bother to spend his full healthcare budget last year as he continues to underpay nurses and doctors, and both he and Blaine Higgs in particular put pandemic healthcare dollars onto their bottom lines, and Higgs boasted a healthy surplus last year thanks to federal transfers. It’s hard to take premiers’ demands for cash seriously if they don’t actually spend the dollars they’re given, and that they keep boasting about their balance sheets while still steadfastly refusing to increase pay, or to reform billing systems. While François Legault wasn’t at the table today, he’s also promising a tax cut if he gets elected again, while crying poor and insisting the federal government needs to spend more. Erm, you know that the federal government can see you, right?

On that note, Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe announced that his province is so flush with money thanks to high oil and gas revenues that they’re going to give out vote-buying cheques to the whole province. But he too is going cap-in-hand to Ottawa for more health transfers, and he’s sending patients in his province to private clinics in Alberta and won’t pay for their transportation to get there either. (Oh, and giving cheques to everyone is going fuel inflation, but you knew that, right?

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 180:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is banning public celebrations in advance of Ukraine’s independence day, citing fears that Russia will likely plan more severe attacks in line with the occasion, particularly around civilian infrastructure. Russians struck near Kharkiv and areas near Bakhmut in the Donbas, while the Ukrainan counter-attack continued to advance on Kherson in the south. There were also new claims of Russian shelling near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, as international pleas to ensure a ceasefire around the area continue to go unheeded. Russians are also, not surprisingly, blaming the car bomb that killed the daughter of one of Putin’s advisors, on Ukraine.

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Roundup: Hussen nets yet another self-inflicted wound

This government continues its habit of own-goals and an inability to communicate their way out of a wet paper bag, and in this week’s episode, we find Ahmed Hussen not properly addressing the fact that the government apparently didn’t properly vet a supposed “anti-racism training” contractor, and lo, he turned out to have a history of making antisemitic comments over social media. But in his statement, Hussen a) doesn’t name the individual, and b) doesn’t say what “working to rectify the matter” means. Have they terminated the contract? Are they going to report on why due diligence was not done? Is there going to be some kind of accountability to be had for this colossal cock-up? Because from this kind of bland statement, I’m not seeing responsibility, accountability, or a recognition that this wasn’t being taken seriously enough in the first place.

To pour gasoline on this self-inflicted fire is the fact that this just gives ammunition to Pierre Poilievre and other Conservatives, who while consorting with far-right extremists, insist that it’s the Liberals who are the real racists because Justin Trudeau did Blackface. In fact, Poilievre did just that over the weekend. And the Liberals keep giving him the ammunition to do so, because they don’t seem to have enough adult supervision in what they’re doing. This is a problem that they can’t seem to get a handle on, seven years later. I’m not saying any of the other parties will be any better, but wow. It’s not really an encouraging sign about government capacity in this country.

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Ukraine Dispatch, Day 179:

More Ukrainian drones have been in the airspace over Russian-occupied Crimea, which some analysts stay is showing the weakness of Russia’s position there. Ukraine also made airstrikes over the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Russia forces have been shelling the southern city of Voznesensk, while intensifying combat around Bakhmut in the country’s east. In related news, a suspected car bomb killed the daughter of one of Putin’s closest advisors, but nobody has claimed responsibility, though this will likely ratchet up tensions in the conflict.

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Roundup: CSE posts a threat bulletin about Russia

We’re on day one-hundred-and-forty-two of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russians fired missiles at the central city of Vinnytsia, hitting civilian locations including a medical clinic. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated his statement that the Russian regime is a terrorist threat. Meanwhile, the leadership at the International Criminal Court in the Hauge is calling for an “overarching strategy” to bring perpetrators of war crimes in Ukraine to justice, so that other countries contributing to the investigations can cooperate with their efforts.

Closer to home, CSE released a threat bulletin on Russia’s cyber-activities in Ukraine, and it was a doozy, saying that the scope and severity has almost certainly been more sophisticated and widespread than has been previously reported, and yes, that has repercussions for Canada as well. Stephanie Carvin has more in this thread:

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Roundup: Brown’s whistleblower goes public

We’re now in day one-hundred-and-thirty-five of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it sounds like Russia might be taking an “operational pause” to regroup before they return to hammering Donetsk province…though there was still some shelling in the region. The Ukrainian flag is once again flying on Snake Island, which is a strategic access point to ports like Odessa. For his part, Putin says that he’s just getting started, and is daring the West to meet him on the battlefield, so that’s going well.

Closer to home, the Patrick Brown saga continues, as the woman who was in his camp and reported the alleged financial misdeeds to the party came forward and said she blew the whistle, and detailed the allegation that a company was paying for her work on the campaign and that Brown knew about it (which he and his camp have denied). As this goes to the Commissioner of Elections, the Liberals, keen to make some mischief, sent in their own complaint to the Commissioner, asking him to investigate the Conservative Party as a whole in the event that they benefitted financially from any memberships the Brown camp sold that may have been done improperly. So that’s going well.

The party is also contending with how they will count votes for Brown that are received, given that they’re not reprinting ballots, and don’t want to just not count his votes in any way in case that alters the maths of the preferential ballot in some way, so…they’re consulting. And we’ll see what that says. Meanwhile, members of the Conservative committee vetting leadership candidates apparently warned the organizing committee not to approve Patrick Brown’s bid, but were overruled, so that’s also interesting.

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Roundup: Hoping for a Canada Day with little disruption

We’re on day one-hundred-and-twenty-eight of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it looks like shelling by Ukrainian forces have driven Russian troops from Snake Island, a strategic location in the south near Odesa (and where those border agents famously told the Russian warship to fuck itself). This could mean that the threats against Odesa are receding. Meanwhile, the fighting continues around Lysychansk, where the Russians are facing a tough road to try and encircle the city as they can’t cross the river without being exposed to the Ukrainian forces on the high ground.

Closer to home, it’s Canada Day, but the festivities are taking place off the Hill in Lebreton Flats, because a third of the lawn in front of the Centre Block is now a giant pit while they dig new underground infrastructure for the renovated building. As well, the Snowbirds have been forced to cancel their performance because of a serious maintenance issue with their fleet. The far-right extremists, grifters, conspiracy theorists and grievance tourists have already started to descent on downtown Ottawa and Parliament Hill, so we’ll see if things are as disruptive as they were during the occupation, but thus far, police are taking no chances and we’ve already seen arrests and vehicles being towed, so we’re off to a better start than we were in January. Regardless, I hope you enjoy your Canada Day as much as possible.

Programming Note: I’m taking the long weekend off to recuperate, so I’ll see you Monday or Tuesday, depending on how I feel (and how much news there is over the weekend).

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QP: Missing the point on inflation

While the prime minister was off to NORAD headquarters and then the Summit of the Americas, we had most of the other leaders in the Commons today. Candice Bergen led off, script in front of her, complaining that the prime minister wouldn’t deal with airport line-ups and be photographed with his mask off in other countries, and railed somewhat incoherently about pandemic theatre. Adam van Koeverden first noted the importance of the prime minister’s international travel, before saying that people are confused by the mixed messages from the Conservatives on public health measures and vaccinations. Bergen then pivoted to rising cost of living, and demanded support for their Supply Day motion on cutting GST and carbon prices. Chrystia Freeland listed off affordability measures and that benefits are indexed to inflation. Bergen got indignant and railed that these cheques weren’t worth anything, and that the prime minster was out of touch. Freeland slowly repeated back Bergen’s assertion, noting that she lives in a government accommodation, and how much these cheques were worth to people. Luc Berthold took over in French to demand support their motion, and Freeland decided to quote the Parliamentary Budget Officer back to Conservatives, and what he said about the drivers of inflation. Berthold also gave his own performance of indignation, and Freeland calmly read her script about affordability measures.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he decried the delays at passport offices, to which Karina Gould deployed her usual lines about adding resources and some offices being open on Saturdays to meet delays. Therrien repeated his demands for faster processing on weekends without additional charges, and Gould repeated her assurances.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he stated that one out of every for Canadians are going hungry (erm, not sure about that claim), while grocery giants are raking in profits, insisting they are responsible for one fourth of food inflation (again, not sure about the veracity of that claim) so they should be taxed to help Canadians. Freeland stated that they are insuring that the wealthy pay their fair share, and listed the budget measures on banks, insurance companies and the luxury tax. Singh repeated his dubious claims in French, and made the same demand, and Freeland repeated her same points.

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Roundup: The Ontario horror show

It is now day one hundred of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suspects that Russian forces now hold some twenty percent of the country’s territory, and asks for more Western weapons. Russians hold most of Severodonetsk, and they are moving onto its twin of Lysychansk, which will help them secure control over the Luhansk province. Meanwhile, Ukrainians who return to their homes often find them to be destroyed, with all of their possessions.

Closer to home, the Ontario election was, well, a disaster for everyone involved. Ford gets a larger seat count on a hollow platform he won’t know what to do with, while most of his experienced performers have left politics. The NDP lost nine seats and still think they’re the “strongest” they’ve ever been, but Andrea Horwath did say it was time to step down, as well she should have. Steven Del Duca also stepped down after he lost his own seat, as well he should have. Voter turnout was extremely low, which tells you that people had nothing to vote for, but this breakdown of how each party lost votes is pretty instructive about the level of disillusionment with each, for what that’s worth as the opposition parties start to rebuild. (My full column on the election will be out later today).

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QP: Exasperation with housing talking points

A bright and sunny Tuesday in the Nation’s Capital, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was present for QP, and for the first time in weeks, so was every other leader, all together. Candice Bergen led off, script in front of her, and she complained that the Liberals had moved away from “moderates” like John Manley and Anne McLellan—because it’s 1995 and will always be 1995—and she worried the budget would be an NDP document. Trudeau recited that they made the choice two year ago to support Canadians through the pandemic, and that led to the economic growth that we are seeing now. Bergen complained that out-of-control spending led to out-of-control prices and insisted that Canadians were worse off than six years ago—which I’m pretty sure doesn’t actually track. Trudeau insisted that they made the choice to prop up Canadians in the pandemic, and were working to make their lives better. Bergen again insisted that every budget made Canadians worse off, and demanded that Trudeau listen to “moderate” Liberals and produce a “responsible” budget, to which Trudeau produced a list of supports that they introduced or enriched, which the Conservatives opposed entirely. Luc Berthold took over in French, and he too insisted that these big-spending budgets led to inflation (never mind that we know the cause of the current bout of inflation and it’s not government spending), and Trudeau recited that they would be there for Canadians, which is why the economy has boomed. Berthold quoted Paul Martin to demand that they cut spending now that the economy is growing, to which Trudeau countered that they enhanced supports for Canadians to help them with rising costs, where the Conservatives wanted austerity.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he insisted that nobody believes in the emissions reduction plan, and wanted the prime minster to admit that his plan failed. Trudeau took a script and read off that the Montreal and Quebec City mayors supported their plan. Blanchet insisted the plan was “scientifically unacceptable” and listed fossil fuel subsidies as proof, and demanded the Bay du Nord project be cancelled. Trudeau instead lamented that Blanchet badmouthed the mayors.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and after reciting a lamentation about rising prices, he wanted assurances that their shared priorities were in the budget. Trudeau responded with a rehearsed paean about how their investments in Canadians have grown the economy. Singh switched to French to demand that the ultra-rich pay their fair share starting with big banks—which was a Liberal platform promise—but Trudeau merely repeated his same paean in French.

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QP: The pre-budget questions have started in earnest

It was a very unusual Wednesday in that most leaders were once again absent—the prime minister was off at the Williams Lake First Nation, missing his self-imposed Wednesday PMQs for the second week in a row, and missing from QP for over a week now; his deputy was also absent. Candice Bergen has been absent for days (and there has been some chatter that her husband tested positive for COVID), as has Yves-François Blanchet. As well, somewhat unusually for a Wednesday, the benches were emptier than they typically are. And possibly worth noting, Speaker Rota remains away, and his deputy, Chris d’Entremont remains in the big chair. Luc Berthold led off, and lamented that they have a date for the first “NDP budget,” which merited him applause from the NDP benches, and he decried what it would represent. Randy Boissonnault stood up to insist that the Conservatives were talking down the economy, and he recited StatsCan data on GDP growth. Berthold quoted Jean Chrétien about deficits, as though it were still 1995, and Boissonnault made a plea to pass Bill C-8 to buy more rapid tests. Berthold accused Chrystia Freeland of selling her soul for a majority, and Boissonnault listed measures they have taken for Canadians. Dan Albas took over in English to decry inflation and a measure around housing, for which Ahmed Hussen dismissed the concerns as the Conservatives did nothing for affordable housing. Albas spouted a few misleading things about what the Bank of Canada Governor and the Parliamentary Budget Officer said about carbon prices, demanding they not increase, and Randy Boissonnault recited that the carbon rebates were progressive and most will get back more than they pay.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he decried the policy that seniors aged 75 and older age getting a top-up rather than all seniors, wondering if this was a Conservative or NDP decision, and Darren Fisher responded with a few points about how affordability gets tougher for older seniors. Therrien insisted that inflation meant they were abandoning seniors, and Fisher read some talking points about measures they have taken for seniors to date.

Jagmeet Singh rose in person for the NDP, and accused the government of siding with banks over people. Boissonnault said that while they understand the sentiment of the NDP’s failed supply day notion, they have taken action on taxing the wealthiest. Singh repeated the question in French, and got the same answer.

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