Amidst party leaders making boneheaded tax promises in the three provincial elections going on right now (no, BC, you can’t forgo taxes on tips without trying to change federal tax authorities), economist Stephen Gordon has decided to revisit Pierre Poilievre’s promise to fire the governor of the Bank of Canada—something he doesn’t have the power to do—and looks at the supposed reasons why. Unsurprisingly, they don’t add up.
Employment fell by just over 15% in the space of two months of covid (Feb-Apr). For context, employment losses during the Great Depression were just under 10%, spread over 5 years (1928-33).
We were facing *deflation*
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) October 7, 2024
No, I'm not saying the Bank got everything right in the past few years: they were slow to recognise that risks of inflation and reacted 6 months too late. I was critical of their decision at the time.
But that mistake wasn't a firing offense.
4/
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) October 7, 2024
That chart is from a speech given by Larry Schembri, a Deputy Governor at the time, and it lays out the thinking behind why the Bank waited so long to move.https://t.co/lfXCOKJJLd
6/
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) October 7, 2024
This turned out to be the wrong call: people were in a mood to spend one the lockdowns were lifted, and they did.
But even if it turned out to be wrong, thinking that the windfall would not be spentwas an entirely justifiable decision, based on available theory and evidence.
8/
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) October 7, 2024
So to sum up, Poilievre wants to fire Tiff Macklem because Steve Poloz prevented the Canadian economy from imploding during covid.
If you think that makes sense, then you are not a serious person.
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) October 7, 2024
In other words, Poilievre is performatively trying to once again blame inflation on someone other than the global supply chain crunch, or the climate-related droughts that impacted food prices (to say nothing of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), and has been pursuing bullshit attacks as a distraction. Those attacks included trying to bring the Bank under the purview of the Auditor General so that they could order her to do “performance audits” on their decisions during COVID (something she has no expertise in doing), because they are not serious people, and get all of their ideas about macroeconomics from crypto bros on YouTube. It’s really, really depressing that anyone thinks they are remotely qualified to govern.
Ukraine Dispatch
Russian shelling killed one person and injured six in the eastern city of Sloviansk. A Russian missile also struck near a major Ukrainian airbase, while Russians fired missiles at two grain vessels on the Black Sea. Russian forces have also entered the outskirts of Toretsk, which is another frontline settlement. Ukrainian forces took credit for the strike on an oil depot in occupied Crimea, which has been fuelling Russia’s war effort, as well as sabotaging a Russian minesweeper in its Black Sea fleet.
https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1843234630754836742
The attack marks the second time a foreign vessel was struck in Odesa Oblast in the past two days. An overnight attack on Oct. 6 struck the Paresa, a civilian cargo ship flying the flag of Saint Kitts and Nevis, causing damage to the boat at the Pivdennyi Port.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 7, 2024