Tag Archives: Myanmar

Roundup: A (likely) electoral false alarm

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There were a few eyebrows raised in the Parliamentary Precinct yesterday when news came from the Procedure and House Affairs committee that the Chief Electoral Officer said that they intend to be ready for an election by the end of April, never mind that the fixed election date is October, and suddenly there was a renewed (but brief) round of election speculation fever (which was then suffocated by the Kavanagh hearings south of the border). Stéphane Perrault noted that they can basically run an election anytime under the previous contest’s rules, but they need lead time for future changes, which puts a clock on the current bill at committee if they want to have a chance for any of the changes to be implemented by next year’s election – and that assumes fairly swift passage in the Senate, which they may not get (particularly if the Conservatives are determined to slow passage of the bill down in committee as it stands).

Of course, I’m pretty sure that a spring election is not going to happen, simply because Trudeau’s agenda still has too many boxes without checkmarks – which is also why I suspect that we haven’t had a prorogation. And looking at how Trudeau has organised his agenda, so much of it has been backloaded to the final year, with plenty of spillover for him to ask for re-election in order to keep it going. (Things are also delayed, one suspects, because NAFTA talks have derailed things in the PMO, and sucked up much of the talent and brainpower. Suffice to say, I’m not taking any talk about an early election with any seriousness.

Meanwhile, more eyebrows were raised when Conservative MP Michelle Rempel claimed that she was being told to prepare for a fall election, which we’re 99 percent sure is just a new fundraising ploy, for what that’s worth.

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Roundup: Harder’s charm offensive

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There’s a charm offensive in the works, led by the Government Leader in the Senate – err, “government representative,” Senator Peter Harder, and his staff, to try and showcase how they’re transforming the Senate. In a profile piece of the “Government Representative Office” for the Hill Times, the three members of the office gave lovely little explanations of their duties, and how they’re doing things differently, like Senator Mitchell talking about how he doesn’t have a caucus to whip, so he’s focused on counting votes for upcoming bills, and arranging briefings and such. Bless.

What didn’t get answered in the piece is just why Harder needs his $1.5 million budget, since he isn’t managing a caucus, he isn’t doing his job of negotiating with other caucus groups for the passage of bills, he isn’t doing any heavy lifting in terms of sponsoring bills on behalf of the government, and as we saw during one of his melodramatic moments in the spring, doesn’t appear to be counting votes either. So why he needs that big of a budget, and that many staff, remains a mystery that has gone unsolved. Harder also remained evasive as to just how often he meets with Cabinet, which continues to be problematic because he’s supposed to be the link between the Chamber and the Cabinet, where Senators can find accountability for the actions of the government (which is why he’s supposed to be a full-blown Cabinet minister and not just a member of Privy Council). They did say that he wasn’t at the recent Cabinet retreat, which raises yet more questions, especially when it comes to how he plans to get their priorities through the Chamber as the Order Paper in the Senate is full, and he’s been in no mood to negotiate timelines (which I know for a fact that other caucus groups are willing to do).

Part of the problem with this charm offensive is that it’s preying on the lack of knowledge that members of the media have with how the Senate works, so they don’t know how things have and have not changed – and for the most part, the only thing that has changed are the fact that Harder and company insist on renaming everything and not doing the jobs they’re supposed to be doing, shifting that burden to the other players in Senate leadership. My other worry is that this is the first stage in the push to start making changes like the demand for a business committee, which would have a hugely detrimental effect on the Chamber and its operations. And I would caution any journalists reading to beware of what Harder plans to propose, and how he plans to charm other journalists into writing feel-good stories about his planned rule changes without understanding how they will damage the Senate.

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Roundup: Carbon backstop bolstered

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News of the forthcoming report on the benefits of carbon taxes (and the associated rebates) to individual Canadians has been ricocheting through the Hill, from Liberals cheering on its results – found to be bulletproofed by the fact that they come from Stephen Harper’s former policy director – to Conservatives who are trying to insist that it’s really all a scam, and that these rebate cheques will never actually appear because they want to preserve the narrative that it’s all one big tax grab to pay for Trudeau’s “out of control” spending, and so on. But as economist Kevin Milligan points out, it’s going to be pretty tough for them to ignore

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It’s almost like the federal government had this in mind when they gave provinces the directive to design carbon pricing programmes that fit their local economies, with the federal backstop being in place if they chose not to. And has been pointed out, it’s going to be hard to run against the programme if people are getting cheques in the mail from the federal government.

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Roundup: NAFTA theatrics

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Yesterday was big for NAFTA news, as the Americans and Mexicans resolved their bilateral differences, particularly around autos, and made progress on getting concessions on the American demands for a sunset clause. But, true to form, US President Donald Trump started spouting a bunch of nonsense about how Canada was on the sidelines, and if we didn’t accept a deal by Friday, he’d slap tariffs on our autos, and so on. The problem there – that he has no congressional authority to conclude a bilateral agreement without us (and indeed, outgoing Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto kept saying that they were waiting for Canada to rejoin negotiations), so it’s a lot of bluster. Nevertheless, Chrystia Freeland cut short her diplomatic trip to Europe and is headed for Washington today, and trilateral talks will resume, and there’s likely to be a heavy focus on dairy as Trump has become fixated on it. This all having been said, have the Conservatives been pleased by the progress made? Funny you should ask.

First of all, the language in both is that it includes Trudeau’s name and the word “failure,” which is their narrative-building exercise (and Hamish Marshall can give them a cookie for sticking to it). But more importantly, as Kevin Carmichael notes, the Conservatives have been backing the government’s strategy to date on this. Of course, Andrew Scheer made a big deal during his big speech on Friday to insist that the Conservatives were going to be the adults in the room on foreign policy (which is risible considering the bulk of their record), but it also defies the reality of the situation. Even John Baird called bullshit on this line of reasoning – there was no reason for Canada to be part of those particular discussions, and this hasn’t really put us in a weakened position, and for all of the Conservatives’ sniggering about the labour chapter that Freeland has been advocating, wages were a big part of this deal that was struck with Mexico. (It’s also adorable that Erin O’Toole tries to make out that the Liberal strategy is all about domestic political posturing, which is exactly what he’s engaging in with his press release).

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In the meantime, industry players in Canada are looking for more details, while Philippe Couillard is vowing not to accept any compromises that will affect Supply Management, so that could be fun while the Quebec election rolls along.

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Roundup: The walkback that wasn’t

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It started, as it so often does, with a Globe and Mail headline that was misleading and which managed to get the story wrong. The headline “Ottawa to dramatically scale back carbon tax on competitiveness concerns,” had the sub-head that “the decision follows months of lobbying by industries and comes just as Ontario is backing out of cap-and-trade,” but it completely misconstrued what the announcement was about. And every other news outlet was quick to follow with a matching story, because it was just too juicy to ignore, not that they got it right either. Not that it mattered – opponents of the federal carbon price backstop were all quick to cheer, declare victory, deploy their memes, and start hoisting Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe around as a hero, without at all understanding what happened, so good job there, Globe.

As energy economists started bemoaning over Twitter, this wasn’t a policy change or a walking back on the carbon tax, because the price hadn’t changed. All that was announced was the subsidies available to certain large emitters who were particularly trade-exposed – in other words, this offsets any disadvantage they’d have by competing with non-carbon-taxed jurisdictions. They still pay the price, and it still is the incentive for them to drive innovation. But to add fuel to the fire, environment minister Catherine McKenna was particularly useless in communicating what this was about because she once again stuck to her go-to line that “the environment and the economy go together.” Her singular tweet during the day was unhelpful in unpacking the what was being announced. And it wasn’t until the end of the day that the National Post had a story written that spoke to those economists and unpacked the issue properly – you know, which should have been done at the start of the news cycle, and not the end of it.

Which leads to the bigger problem here, in that this has become a classic example of how media organisations have the power to frame slightly more complex issues in the dumbest possible terms in order to set it up in partisan terms. Well, the Globehas been racking up a record of outright misleading stories as well, but they weren’t the only culprits. CBC’s Power & Politics, for example, gave a not correct rendition of what happened, got Scott Moe’s boneheaded take, and only then talked to an economist about the issue, by which point it had been framed as a government climbdown, which it wasn’t. But we keep seeing this kind of pattern of dumbing down stories that aren’t even complex. Recall Stéphane Dion’s “green shift” plan – the only thing that reporters would say was “it’s complicated!” when it wasn’t, and hence, that’s how it got branded throughout the campaign. It does a disservice to Canadians to not explain policy issues properly and to frame things with facts on the table rather than in partisan boxes, but that takes time, which is what nobody seems to have, and that is a major problem for our democracy.

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Roundup: Performative anxiety over the pipeline bill

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There’s a bit of performative wailing and gnashing of teeth emanating from the Senate, as the nonsense bill from Conservative-turned-Independent Senator Doug Black about declaring the Trans Mountain pipeline in the national interest passed earlier this week, and they have no indication whether it will be passed by the Commons in short order. After all, there are only some eight days until Kinder Morgan’s “deadline” comes to pass, and under the politician’s syllogism, something must be done and this is something, therefore we must do this. Never mind that as a bill, it’s constitutional nonsense because the preamble invokes Section 92(10)(c) of the Constitution Act 1867, and the project is already federal jurisdiction because it crosses a provincial boundary; invoking the section would imply that it is provincial jurisdiction (it’s not), or that it would perversely declare a federal issue to be provincial for the sake of declaring it federal again (which sets up a really terrible precedent for the future). The bigger problem is that it’s a Senate public bill, which means that when it gets to the Commons, it needs a sponsor (not a difficult get for Black in this case), and then it goes into the queue of private members’ business. It could be weeks before that refreshes and it earns a slot for debate, which will be well past the artificial deadline from Kinder Morgan. This despite the fact that the bill should be defeated because it’s constitutional nonsense. And the Conservative senators who are currently complaining that they have no indication if the government will pass the bill immediately know better – there isn’t a mechanism for them to do so, barring a motion to pass it at all stages once it’s on the Order Paper. Which it’s not. But hey, facts have never stopped anyone from making a big show of something like this before, so why start now?

In other pipeline news, no other company has publicly declared that they are willing to take over the Trans Mountain pipeline if Kinder Morgan backs out (but I’m not sure why they would say so at this point, because I’m sure it would drive up the price if they sounded eager). Jagmeet Singh has firmly put himself in BC’s camp on the issue, earning the rebuke of Rachel Notley – and the fact that he hasn’t bothered to even call her has Notley questioning his maturity. That western premiers meeting that Notley sent her deputy premier to instead happened, and said deputy didn’t sign onto the final communiqué because it wouldn’t show support for Trans Mountain, while BC premier John Horgan talks out of both sides of his mouth, demanding that the expansion be halted while demanding the existing pipeline continue to carry fuel for BC, and insisting that the two are very separate issues.

Meanwhile, as Alberta turns into a single-issue province, I continue to be amazed at the hyperbole being expressed on this issue. One pipeline advocate yesterday referred to BC as a “rogue state.” Guys. Seriously? The most BC has done is hold a press conference and file a court reference that they are likely to lose. This drama queen routine is getting a little embarrassing.

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Roundup: Kenney gets some policy resolutions

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Alberta’s United Conservative Party held their foundational policy convention in Red Deer this last weekend, featuring plenty of cameo appearance by federal Conservatives including Andrew Scheer, and you can bet that Justin Trudeau was a favoured target (along with the premier, Rachel Notley, of course). Jason Kenney vowed to make an enemy of the “green left,” to the point where he was vowing to fight things that are areas of federal jurisdiction, which is funny considering that he’s been baying at the moon about the federal government apparently not asserting their jurisdiction vigorously enough when it comes to pipelines getting built. Funny how that happens.

There was an interesting digression into conservative feminism as part of the weekend’s narratives, with an airing of grievances against the particular brand of feminism that Justin Trudeau preaches, and the allegations that it means that Trudeau is dictating their values to them (particularly when it comes to issues like abortion, where Trudeau follows the logic that women should have agency over their own bodies – shockingly). Rona Ambrose announced that she is leading a new non-profit group to help women get involved in the UCP, through fundraising, mentorship, logistics, and networking – things that are not seen as tokenism or quotas. Heather Forsyth, former minister under Ralph Klein and interim leader of the Wildrose Party, was less than impressed, referring to talk of barriers facing women in politics as “socialist crap.” Of course, Dr. Cristina Stasia reminded her that socialism has long been sexist and hostile to women in politics as it’s seen as a “man’s role.” So there’s that.

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A number of social conservative issues came up at the convention, and despite sitting MLAs encouraging the grassroots members to vote against them – things like requiring parents be told if their children attend a Gay-Straight Alliance meeting at school, or having parents sign-off on “medically invasive procedures” for minors (read: abortions), which the grassroots crackpots insist were about “parental rights.” Sure, Jan. And Kenney outright said afterward that he’ll take these under advisement but won’t be held to them, saying that they’re “poorly worded” and the like. Because he wants to win and not be another “Lake of fire” party like Wildrose was, which cost them at least one election. However, Kenney has courted enough social conservatives and empowered them enough that they decisively won several policy votes meaning that they’ll be difficult to ignore, no matter how hard he tries to play down those resolutions when it comes time to draft his election platform, given that he conspicuously stayed out of the policy development process in order to give members a freer hand. It’ll be an even bigger problem for him to ignore them now.

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Roundup: Questions about Scheer’s assertions

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Andrew Scheer went to Calgary yesterday to talk to that city’s Chamber of Commerce and said a few things that I feel should probably stand a bit of questioning. Like the fact that he thinks it’s a “red flag” to use taxpayer funds to backstop the Trans Mountain expansion pipeline. And it’s fair that there’s scepticism about governments essentially subsidizing private business, but it’s his assertion that “governments investing tax dollars in energy projects is not the optimal solution.” Sure, it’s not optimal, but it’s complete and total historical revisionism to suggestion that this is somehow new or novel. Given the ways that governments, both federal and provincial, have de facto subsidized the development of the oilsands with generous royalty breaks and other tax incentives has been sinking a hell of a lot of taxpayer dollars into energy projects. And yes, there was a whole national crisis that had a hand in bringing down a federal government around the government sinking money into a cross-country pipeline.

But the other statement that Scheer makes that I find a bit puzzling is this continued insistence that somehow provinces were forced to “take matters into their own hands” over the Trans Mountain issue because the federal government showed a lack of leadership. And I’m still trying to figure out how this works. For starters, which provinces is he referring to? BC, which took it upon themselves to challenge federal jurisdiction in a naked attempt to appease a coalition partner? Or Alberta, who escalated tactics on the basis of a press release? “They should use all of the tools at their disposal,” Scheer insists of the federal government, and yet I’m not sure what exactly they were supposed to do. They already have jurisdiction – trying to re-assert it would imply that there was a question when there isn’t one, and creating doubt would embolden opponents. There wasn’t anything to challenge in the courts because BC had only put out a press release, and nobody even had a clue about what specific questions BC was raising until they filed their court reference this past week. How would going half-cocked have helped matters? But demanding they “use all the tools” sounds an awful lot like hand-wavey nonsense that serves to only invoke the politician’s syllogism than it does to suggest meaningful action. Kinder Morgan, meanwhile, has used this exercise in threatening to pull out in order to exact political leverage (and the fact that a private company is attempting to blackmail governments is not a good look), but there remain questions outside of all of this as to their own obligations to fulfil the conditions imposed on them by the National Energy Board for continued approval of the project. That can’t be glossed over.

I’m also curious what else he thinks the federal government should have done to silence BC’s objections, considering that he’s also supporting the Saskatchewan government’s attempt to push back against the imposition of the federal carbon backstop price. Is his position that federal governments should bigfoot provinces to get pipelines, but that they don’t dare interfere in areas of shared jurisdiction like the environment? That’s an interesting needle to thread, and somehow, I doubt we’ll see him attempting to do so anytime soon.

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Roundup: Unconstitutional threats

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Alberta’s Bill 12, that would give its energy minister the power to declare what can go in the pipelines that leaves the province, is almost certainly unconstitutional (and I think they’re being too cute by half in saying that it’s not because it doesn’t target BC specifically). It’s way overbroad in terms of the powers it gives the minister, and even if it somehow manages to pass constitutional muster, you can imagine that it would certainly be struck down by the courts for the sheer scope of how arbitrary it is. And in case you think that the pressure tactics of raising gas prices in BC are sound, it’ll likely do more damage to their own producers and refineries, whose supplies and production they are curtailing. So bravo for thinking that cutting off your nose to spite your face is good public policy, guys.

The premier of Saskatchewan, Scott Moe, says that he’s going to pass his own version to back up Alberta in their fight. Because that’s helpful. BC, meanwhile, says that because the bill is blatantly unconstitutional, it’s likely just a political bluff – but if it’s not, they’ll sue Alberta for it, as well they should. Alberta’s minister insists that it’s no bluff. So here we are, with few grown-ups in the room apparently, because they’re lighting their hair on fire to do something, anything, now, now, nowrather than coming up with a measured and reasoned response to the situation. And then there’s Michelle Rempel’s take. Oi.

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QP: Digging up a dead horse

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As spring snow fell over Ottawa, Justin Trudeau was in Paris on an official visit, while Andrew Scheer was in Calgary rather than be in Question Period. That left Lisa Raitt to lead off, dredging up the long dead and buried horse of Justin Trudeau once saying that the oilsands needed to be phased out (never mind that he clarified it was a long-term goal in moving toward a decarbonized future). Jim Carr responded that they approved Trans Mountain and have reiterated their support for it continually. Raitt worried about industry uncertainty and the “flight” of capital from the country, to which Carr reiterate that the uncertainty wasn’t coming from them but one province, and that they are having discussions with Kinder Morgan to ensure there was investor certainty. Raitt worried that this lack of confidence was coming from the federal government’s inaction, but Carr reminded her that her government didn’t get a single kilometre of pipeline built to tidewater. Gérard Deltell took over to re-ask the “phased out” question in French, and Marc Garneau reiterated Carr’s points in French, and then they went for a second round of the same. Guy Caron was up next for the NDP, railing that the federal government was imposing its will on BC, and Garneau reminded him that the pipeline was federal jurisdiction per the Supreme Court and the constitution, and they were talking with the two provinces involved. Caron switched to English to rail that BC’s government was elected on a promise to stop it and governments are supposed to keep their promises. Carr reminded him that Alberta’s government was elected on a promise to build it, but it was federal jurisdiction. Romeo Saganash got up next to decry that the government wasn’t respecting their obligations to Indigenous communities around the pipeline, and Carr reminded him that they did more consultations than the previous government did, who got smacked down by the Supreme Court of Canada over their lack of proper consultations. Saganash insisted that there were no actual agreements with Indigenous communities, but Carr said that there was no agreement between Indigenous communities, and indeed between NDP premiers, but a decision needed to be taken.

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