Roundup: First day retaliation

[Clone Wars newsreel voice] Trade war! The American president has unleashed 25 percent tariffs across the board against allies Canada and Mexico, in violation of existing trade agreements. Retaliatory tariffs have been levied in response, and Canadian leaders are expressing their shock and dismay at what is clearly a plan to weaken our economy for annexation. But the retaliation is also coming with threats of further escalation…

It was indeed unprecedented in our lifetimes for a Canadian prime minister to stand up and blatantly call out an American president for the outright threat of annexation, and for his cozying up to Putin. Trudeau busted the notion that this was ever about the border or fentanyl, and promised further non-tariff measures to come.

https://bsky.app/profile/jrobson.bsky.social/post/3ljkwaokc3c2w

Provincial premiers each lined up to offer their own retaliation, much of which came in the form of removing American booze from liquor store shelves, but Doug Ford threatened export taxes on energy, and Danielle Smith (who is in a state of shock for being “betrayed” by Trump) said she wouldn’t do that…but they don’t have the power to levy them or not, because that power is federal. I’m sure they think that these performances make them look serious and tough, but would it kill a single premier to learn what their actual constitutional powers actually are before they start talking in front of the cameras? (And for everyone who is once again a newfound fan of Ford because of said performance, give your heads a shake).

Federally, Jagmeet Singh called for Parliament to be summoned for an emergency session, but offered no guarantees about how long he would let it last before he decided to vote non-confidence, and the real kicker there is that implementation for any measures they want voted on takes time, which is a concept the NDP have never been able to actually grasp. As for Pierre Poilievre, his own speech largely consisted of him insisting that he’s not MAGA, blaming the Liberals for getting us to this point, and repeating his same slogans and policy demands that he’s always made, and insisted that any funds from counter-tariffs go to tax cuts, which is Trump’s whole plan for tariffs. It’s the exact same plan, but he’s totally “not MAGA,” and is proving it in a very weird way. Oh, and no, building more pipelines and refineries isn’t going to solve any problems, guys.

And then, toward the end of the day, Trump’s commerce secretary says that they might come to some kind of compromiseon the tariffs later today. Maybe, and it “won’t be a pause.” Because they all think they’re playing 3D chess here.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukrainian drones hit an industrial target in the Russian city of Syrzan. Reuters has a look at the effect of the halt on US’ military aid for Ukraine, and the aid that other allies have provided (to date).

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Roundup: Implicating the King, and trying to cause a crisis

Following the sickening ambush at the White House on Friday, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy flew to London for a conference on security in Europe now that it’s clear that the United States is no longer an ally, and prime minister Justin Trudeau also flew to London to attend. In advance of the conference, Zelenskyy met with King Charles at his Sandringham residence (which touched off some grousing online in Canada—more on that in a minute). At the conference,  UK prime minister Keir Starmer seemed to try to play up that the US was still a “reliable ally,” but I’m not sure anyone else in Europe (except maybe Hungary) actually believes that, nor should they. Following the conference, Trudeau was adamant about supporting Zelenskyy, and also had a one-on-one with Starmer, where no doubt the topic of Starmer throwing Canada under the bus came up for discussion, even though the readout of the conversation was very, very diplomatic in the choice of words.

Meanwhile, back in Canada, CTV seemed to be doing their absolute utmost to create a constitutional crisis because they contacted Buckingham Palace to see if the King would say something about the “51st State” threats, and surprising nobody who has a clue about constitutional monarchy, they would not comment. BECAUSE OF COURSE THEY CAN’T WITHOUT THE ADVICE OF THE GOVERNMENT. But that didn’t stop absolutely everyone from deciding that they were suddenly an expert on constitutional monarchy and what is and is not permissible for a monarch to say without the advice of the government, and the absolute worst part was that CTV took the opportunity to start both-sidesing those reactions, because who needs fact-based journalism when you’re trying to stir up controversy in order to get clicks for the attention economy?

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3ljekymxfv22f

This should be basic civics—something people learn about in grade five, and then again in grade seven or eight, and again in high school. But nobody has a clue how this is supposed to work, most especially the people who should know, including former ministers of the Crown. This in turns leads to a whole lot of people insisting that an apolitical monarchy isn’t good for anything, and people who were already small-r republicans are using this as an excuse to agitate for an end to the monarchy, and good fucking luck to them, considering it would require a) a coherent plan to replace it, and b) the unanimous consent of the Commons, the Senate, and all ten provinces in order to rewrite the entire constitution, because that’s not something you can just search-and-replace.

Trudeau is having a meeting with the King this morning before he leaves London, and it’s possible that he will advise the King to make some kind of statement, particularly now that sentiment has been stirred up because people who should now better have implicated the King when it was Starmer who threw us under the bus in his own moral cowardice, but it never should have come to this.

Ukraine Dispatch

Late Sunday, a Russian drone hit an apartment building in Kharkiv, injuring at least eight. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy says he can salvage his relationship with Trump, though I’m not sure Trump actually wants that because he’s not a good-faith actor in this, and he is looking for any excuse to abandon Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1896321455606173969

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Roundup: An ambush in the White House

It was an ambush. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to the White House, ostensibly to sign some kind of agreement around access to critical minerals in exchange for some kind of military support or security guarantees was a set-up for Trump and JD Vance to try and humiliate Zelenskyy in front of the cameras, with one of the reporters from Russian state outlet TASS in the room (who was removed at one point by the Secret Service, but it was obvious that someone in the White House arranged for him to be there). The whole video is sickening to watch.

While Trump and Vance started broadcasting this for their followers as a supposed sign of strength, and their lackeys and apologists broadcast Russian propaganda to justify it, word also started leaking out that Trump is planning on cutting off military aid to Ukraine for Zelenskyy’s supposed intransigence and lack of desire for peace, which is of course mendacious and part of the set-up.

In the wake of this, world leaders started tweeting their support for Zelenskyy and Ukraine, and this was probably the death knell of NATO as we know it. The one leader who has been silent is Keir Starmer, but he is also hosting a summit in London today about Ukraine and European security, which Justin Trudeau will also be attending.

Here are some hot takes from Tom Nichols and David Frum, while Philippe Lagassé has some additional thoughts on the situation.

Closer to home, in an interview with the Spectator, Trump took credit for Chrystia Freeland’s supposed “firing” (she was not fired), and said that Poilievre’s problem is that “he’s not a MAGA guy.” Which is true—Poilievre doesn’t have much of a coherent ideology, but he’s not MAGA. What he is, however, is someone who will say anything that he feels he needs to in order to attract the MAGA crowd to his banner, no matter how ridiculous it is, and he has no morals, ethics, or scruples about it. Poilievre jumped on this to declare that he’s “Canada First,” and later did tweet support for Zelenskyy and Ukraine, and immediately got roasted in the comments by his MAGA supporters for it. Funny what happens when you play with fire.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1895631503469449464

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones struck a medical facility, among other targets, in Kharkiv. The framework for a mineral agreement that Ukraine was supposed to sign with the Americans, before the ambush, contained a number of gaps around security or dispute resolution, before it turned out to be a sham.

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Roundup: Sympathy work for the far-right

There are times when it becomes glaringly obvious that legacy media still has no idea how to cover the far-right, whether in the US or here in Canada, and once again, we have been let down precipitously. Yesterday, the CBC published a long sympathy piece about the two main ringleaders of the so-called “Freedom Convoy,” full of lots of photos, and it just once again goes back to how this continues to normalize these narratives. (And no, I’m not going to link to the piece for the sake of giving it hate clicks).

A lot of this falls back to the constant need by legacy media to both-sides everything, providing equal time and weight to narratives and concepts that don’t deserve or require equal weight, because it’s false or misleading, and doesn’t call anything out that can’t be couched in “opponents say” rather than just declaring that something is false, misleading, or batshit crazy. And this kind of sympathy work of showing that people who do very bad things are just misunderstood or are suffering because of the consequences of their actions just goes to make what they did more acceptable. It was the same with reporter who tracked down people who attacked them on January 6th and spent time with them, and did similar sympathy work, which just muddies the waters of the unacceptability of their actions, particularly if they feel a level of justification for their actions—in the case of these convoy organizers, they’re showing the boxes of thank-you cards they got from their adherents. Again, this is not only normalizing the far-right, but it is showing it in a sympathetic light. This is dangerous for legacy media to be doing, and there seems to be absolutely no critical thinking (or ethical considering) in what they think they’re doing, and what they inevitably end up doing is contributing to the erosion of democracy.

Meanwhile, the Star has a very good look at how far-right influencers have weaponized Canada as their cautionary tale, and how that has also in turn been changing perceptions in this country about ourselves, and most especially about the current government and the state of things. (I have a column on this later today). This was far better coverage of the far-right, but is still a bit tepid in the dangers of what these narratives can represent, particularly when it starts to normalize and excuse racism, misogyny, xenophobia, homophobia and transphobia, and how that is very much playing out in several provinces right now. This stuff needs to be explicitly called out, and nobody can do it effectively.

Ukraine Dispatch

President Zelenskyy says that he has approved increased funding for drone production for the war effort. Zelenskyy also says that Ukraine is open to having Western troops provide security once the fighting has stopped, provided that Ukraine is accepted into the European Union and NATO.

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Roundup: Parsing the dinner at Mar-a-Lago

So much of the weekend was spent parsing what happened at Mar-a-Lago on Friday, particularly given that Justin Trudeau didn’t put out an official readout of the meeting (probably because Trump is not officially in government yet), while Trump posted about it on his social media where he called it “productive.” The takeaways appear to be that the tariffs threats cannot be avoided immediately, because Trump believes in them and wants to use them to balance the budget (good luck with that), but that we may be able to carve out exceptions. There was also talk about the border and fentanyl, according to Dominic LeBlanc, and talk about more drones and helicopters to patrol the border (but who knows where the helicopters and personnel will come from—we are not flush with excess capacity).

None of this was good enough for Pierre Poilievre, who took to the microphones on Sunday to claim that Trudeau went in a “position of weakness” (because that’s Poilievre’s go-to line these days), and lamented that Trudeau came home “empty-handed,” as though these things are done in a day, particularly with a mercurial chaos agent like Trump. Poilievre also says he wants a cap on asylum seekers, because he claims there are too many bad actors, and said he would allow a reprieve in the ongoing filibuster if there is a border plan that meets his approval on the table. But when asked what he would do different, Poilievre says he’s not the prime minister, and walked away. So…that happened.

Meanwhile, Doug Ford insists that the premiers are “unanimous” that they want us to accelerate defence spending to reach our NATO target sooner than later. No word yet on what fiscal demands they will give up from the federal government to reach that spending target faster (because the money has to come from somewhere).

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone hit a residential building in Ternopil overnight, killing one and injuring several others. Drones also targeted Kyiv the night previous, and killed three in a strike on Kherson. Russians claim to have overtaken the settlements of Illinka and Petrivka in Donetsk region. Ukraine says it will increase the use of unmanned ground vehicles over the coming year.

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Roundup: The GDP data and the “collapsing” economy

Yesterday was the day that Statistics Canada released the quarterly GDP figures, and they were middling. The economy is sluggish, but 1.0% annualized growth in the quarter is growth, and it bears repeating that we have avoided a recession after the inflationary spike, so this is the “soft landing” that the Bank of Canada was aiming for. And because growth is sluggish, there is plenty of talk that the Bank will likely make another 50 basis point cut in December rather than 25.

The Conservatives rushed to make hay of these numbers, particularly the fact that per capita GDP fell by 0.4% over the quarter, which was the sixth quarterly decline. (Yes, there was revised data that pushed up growth and made the quarterly decline less pronounced for the past two years). And why has there been a decline in per capita GDP? Because at the end of the lockdowns, we ramped up immigration to combat labour shortages, and all of those new workers pushed up our growth enough to avoid a recession, and because the denominator has been increased faster than the numerator, it’s a pretty solid indication that the growth could very well be much stronger once we get it back on track. To that end, the Conservatives’ press release compared our non-annualised figures to the American annualised numbers to make ours look worse (they later issued a correction), and put out misleading tweets that blame Trudeau and not the 2014 collapse in oil prices for the so-called “economic vandalism” that they believe that simple line graphs show.

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1862538994221031782

And then there was the absolute mendacity in Question Period. Michael Chong said that the estimated effect of Trump tariffs was less than what Trudeau has done (which is both false and stupid), and Corey Torchor, unbelievably, claimed that the StatsCan data showed that the economy was “collapsing,” and I wish I was making that up. In no way did any of that data indicate that there was anything resembling “collapse.” Sluggish, yes. Collapsing? How? Either the Conservatives are just outright lying with statistics, or they have no clue how to read GDP data (or maybe both). And the funny thing is that all of this concern about declining per capita GDP is a pretty de facto way of saying that they are cheering for an actual recession, which we would have had if we hadn’t juiced immigration the way we did. I wish this wasn’t so stupid, and I wish we had more journalists calling this out, but we don’t because “I was told there would be no math.”

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drone attacks hit residential buildings in Kyiv and Odesa, injuring eight. Ukrainian forces are facing a desertion crisis because of overstretched forces, psychological scarring, and the management of the war. Ukraine’s army chief is pledging more troops on the eastern front after visiting there. Here is a look at Ukrainians dismantling a thermal power plant before the Russians can advance on it.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1862448598702596345

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Roundup: Ford’s inaction on housing

While so much of the focus in Ontario over the past few days has (deservedly) been about Doug Ford’s plan to send $200 cheques to everyone ahead of an early election call in order to buy votes (rather than doing anything about healthcare, education, universities, crumbling infrastructure, you name it), it has obscured from the reports that Ontario is not only badly missing its housing targets—it’s getting worse.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1851725607408742526

Housing is very much a provincial responsibility. That is the level of government that has the tools and the levers to affect housing, whether it’s legislating the zoning changes that cities are reluctant to engage in, or using their spending powers to build or repair social housing (like they’ve been promising to since the late eighties), or any number of things. Is Ford doing any of it? Nope. Are they banning municipalities from forcing excessive development charges that are raising the cost of housing? Nope. Are they doing absolutely anything other than trying to pad their housing numbers with long-term care beds? Nope. But instead, all of the blame continues to be put on Justin Trudeau for the housing situation, never mind that he has vanishingly few levers at his disposal (and when he points that out, every media outlet in the country freaks out and insists that he must somehow create some, because reasons).

Meanwhile, as Pierre Poilievre promises to cut two of the existing federal housing programmes to fund his GST cut on new houses under $1 million, here’s Mike Moffatt explaining why those programmes are necessary and why they should be adjusted and not cut, not that Poilievre is going to listen.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1851933649723105344

Ukraine Dispatch

The death toll from the Russian strike on a high-rise in Kharkiv have risen, and children are among the dead. Russians also attacked a strategic bridge in the Odesa region overnight. American intelligence indicates that there are now 8,000 North Korean troops in Russia’s Kursk region, and that they are expected to enter the fight against Ukraine in the coming days. President Zelenskyy has blasted allies’ “zero” response to the arrival of these North Korean troops.

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Roundup: Speaker Fergus on the spot in new privilege battle

The brewing privilege battle over the Sustainable Development Technologies Canada documents is largely going under-reported, save for the National Post, but it’s going to be an interesting showdown with the Speaker about the refusal to turn over these documents. The government’s argument is that the stated purpose for demanding these documents is not for Parliamentary business, such as committee study, but because they intend to be turned over to the RCMP, which is in and of itself a problem because it does violate the separation of powers and really, really looks like politicians trying to direct the police (who have said that they don’t want the documents, because it would violate the Charter rights of any accused). I think this is a sound argument, and one that is necessary because of the ongoing abuses of privilege that the past couple of parliaments have engaged in.

Yes, Parliament has unfettered authority to send for the production of papers, but there have to be limits on this privilege, or it can be abused, and I think that this case demonstrates the limits. The complicating factor is that limits are especially difficult to maintain in a minority parliament situation because all of the opposition parties tend to be all be interested in embarrassing the government at any turn (and this is not unique to this government, but any government). It’s partly why NSICOP was fine during a majority Parliament but became the subject of political manoeuvring during the minority years—because opposition parties will try to use their leverage to embarrass a government or score points when they think they can.

I don’t envy Speaker Fergus in having to make this decision, but this kind of exercise is clearly beyond the pale. It’s not up to MPs to get information on behalf of the RCMP, and that crosses so many red lines that it should be blinding. He’s going to be criticized whatever he makes, but hopefully for the sake of precedent, he makes the right choice and rein in some of this foolishness, because once MPs feel empowered enough to do this to one organisation—SDTC in this case—they’re going to start going after anyone they disagree with ideologically on an increasing base going forward.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians targeted a geriatric centre in Sumy, as well as the power grid, which a UN body believes is probably against international humanitarian law. Russia says they are ramping up their drone production tenfold (but that may just be all talk, given the sanctions and the availability of components).

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1836807096391676132

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Roundup: A question with the intention to intimidate

Conservative MP Chris Warkentin has put a question on the Order Paper asking whether a number of economists have received any government contracts, and for any information about those contracts if they have been the recipient. While Stephen Gordon responds for himself below, it was also noted that all of the economists listed (who include names like Kevin Milligan, Andrew Leach, and Mike Moffatt) are all male, which I’m sure is just a coincidence and not indicative of a mentality that they think there’s no such thing as a “lady economist.”

This having been said, I think it’s important to point out that what Warkentin is doing here, on behalf of the party, is directly out of the authoritarian playbook. Number one of the seven key tactics in that playbook are to politicise independent institutions (and university academics would qualify), while number four on that list is about quashing dissent, and many of these names are economists who signed onto that open letter about the value of carbon pricing (which, to reiterate, was not defending the Liberal policy because it’s not actually carbon pricing, but a carbon levy plus regulation and subsidies). The Order Paper question is a shot across the bow that they are looking for anything to discredit these economists as partisan hacks whose expertise can be discounted for that reason. It’s about as subtle as a ham-fist, but they don’t care because they’re riding high in the polls. That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t be alive to what they’re doing, because it absolutely matters.

Ukraine Dispatch:

A missile strike in Kharkiv has killed at least seven civilians, as the Russian assault continues. Russians have also taken control of the village of Andriivka, southwest of Bakhmut. Russian jamming has also prevented many of Ukraine’s newer glide bombs from hitting their intended targets.

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Roundup: Aborted merger talks?

I will be the first to admit that I don’t follow BC politics too closely, but I cannot help by roll my eyes at some of the narratives starting to leak out across the border around a supposed attempt to “unite the right” in that province. It sounds like it’s all talk, as the rumours that a particular mayor is being touted as a possible candidate lead a merged party, but the leader of the BC Conservative Party is throwing cold water over the whole thing, not unexpectedly.

As a quick refresher, the province used to have a single centre-right party, the BC Liberals, which was not the same as the federal Liberals, but a merger between the “free enterprise” Liberal and Conservative parties in the province to counter the NDP, and that was successful for a number of years, but they were insufficiently conservative for some, especially because they were relatively socially progressive and were environmentally conscious—they were the first jurisdiction in the country to bring in a carbon tax (and it’s an actual tax that largely offsets income taxes). And so the BC Conservatives were born, and the BC Liberals changed their name to BC United (sounding like a European football team), and they have largely tanked since.

This talk of mergers is usually what starts to happen when people start huffing poll numbers (hello the recurring “Why don’t the federal Liberals and NDP merge?” bullshit), but who don’t think about anything underlying, such as policies, beliefs, or underlying culture, because that stuff does matter. A lot. Case in point was Alberta, where Jason Kenney decided to ride in with his blue pick-up truck to “unite the right” in that province without doing any of the soul-searching about what any of it actually means, and what they would have to offer. No, it was just important to them to have a banner with “conservative” in it that could oppose the NDP, and sure, the “united” party did beat the NDP, but it has been nothing but internal chaos, who turned on Kenney at the first opportunity because he brought in the ungovernable, swivel-eyed loons into the fold to give him the numbers he felt he needed. As I’ve said before, he invited the face-eating leopards into the house and made them a nice warm bed, with the intention of turning them on his enemies, but they quickly realised that his face was right there and so they ate it instead. I can pretty much promise you that the exact same thing would happen in BC if they attempted such a merger, which would end up serving nobody.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian forces have taken control of two more villages in the Kharkiv region, and possibly another one in the Zaporizhzhia region in the south, as their offensive pushes forward. There have also been injuries from Russian air strikes on the southern cities of Mykolaiv and Kherson. In light of the deteriorating situation, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is postponing all foreign travel, starting with his planned trips to Spain and Portugal, because of the situation on the front lines.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1790735262978326589

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