Roundup: Freeland’s non-contradictory position on energy

On Tuesday, Chrystia Freeland gave a speech at the Brookings Institute in Washington, DC, and she outlined some fairly ambitious economic policy that involves a retrenching of keeping our supply chains within fellow democracies, because relying on regimes like Russia and China can prove costly in the end—particularly if you look at what’s happening in Europe with their energy crisis. It also means accelerating the green energy transition, which is also happening at a faster pace. But what got a bunch of people in Canada curious was Freeland talking about fast-tracking energy and mining projects to help Europe with that transition. But there is nuance there, however.

The CBC in particular got excited because they claimed to see some kind of contradiction with what Freeland was saying with the fact that the government won’t do anything to fast-track LNG projects, and that we somehow sent German Chancellor Olaf Scholz packing when he came looking for LNG. Erm, except he didn’t, because he knows as well as anyone that we don’t have the infrastructure for LNG, and so he came looking for hydrogen, which he got. But the CBC’s Vassy Kapelos did an interview with Scholz, where she spent half of it badgering and hectoring him about LNG until he said that he would like Canadian LNG if we had it, and they kept bringing that clip up in isolation. But again, Scholz knows we don’t, that it would take too long to build, and frankly that the market case isn’t there. As I wrote in this column, the timelines for these projects don’t make sense, and frankly, the LNG projects that have been on the drawing table for decades never took off because they couldn’t get commitments from buyers for the project. And while Kapelos was hectoring and badgering natural resources minister Jonathan Wilkinson yesterday about LNG, and insisting that the Americans can get theirs to export and why not us, the difference is that they have been converting LNG import terminals for export, which we can’t do. We have one import terminal in New Brunswick, and it would take two years to retrofit, assuming they could get a steady supply of gas, which they don’t have without importing. That’s why it’s an import terminal. But apparently there are no producers at Power & Politics who can pick up the phone and call a gods damned energy economist who can explain these things before they talk to the minister and not waste everyone’s time.

So no, Freeland didn’t contradict anyone. They are putting a focus on mining critical minerals in Canada—Trudeau made such an announcement earlier in the week. They are focusing on hydrogen, some of which may come from natural gas, which again, is not LNG, but is an energy project. “Energy project” is not simply code for LNG, guys. It’s only slightly alarming that the gods damned public broadcaster can’t be bothered to do their homework to put things in context before they start hyperventilating, but this is apparently the era we’re living in.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 231:

Ukrainian forces say that they have recaptured five settlements in the southern Kherson region, while the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant has lost external power for the second time in five days, which puts stress on the cooling systems.

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Roundup: Backing away from the crazy now that the leadership is secured

Now that she has won the UCP leadership and is about to be sworn-in as premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith is suddenly backing down from some of the things she’s been saying about her “Sovereignty Act,” and is telling media outlets that she’ll respect the rule of law when courts inevitably rule against it because it’s going to be blatantly unconstitutional. Which isn’t what was promised, and the whole point of the Act, based on the brain trust that invented the idea, was to force a constitutional crisis by disobeying the Supreme Court. Now Smith is saying otherwise, which is starting to look mighty cynical—that she sold her base on a false promise in order to get them to buy memberships and vote for her, and now she’s going to tone it down. It’s just so cynical and crass that you have to wonder what she won’t say or do in order to get her way now that she’ll have access to real levers of power.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 229:

The weekend began with an explosion on the bridge between Crimea and Russia, attributed to Ukraine, and on the day after Putin’s birthday, given how much of a vanity project this bridge was for Putin. By Monday morning, Russians shelled the city centres in Kyiv and nine other cities in Ukraine, all targeting civilian infrastructure, calling it retaliation for the Crimean bridge explosion, and trying to call it terrorism (while attacking civilian centres, which is actual terrorism). One of the cities hit was Zaporizhzhia, where apartment buildings were struck. As well, here are stories of survivors of Russians in liberated villages in the Kherson region, and a look at the looting Russians have undertaken of places like museums in captured regions.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1579530489802944512

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QP: For love of filibusters

While the prime minister remains in COVID isolation, he didn’t join QP virtually today, and his deputy was in Toronto to give a big speech on the government’s affordability measures when it comes to dealing with inflation. Most of the other leaders didn’t bother to show up today either, though Candice Bergen did show up for votes after QP, for what it’s worth. Luc Berthold led off, and he declared that everything the Liberals touch “goes south,” and he complained about passports, line-ups at borders, and delays for EI cheques. Karina Gould got up and empathized with the frustration people face, and noted that in the face of high demand, the government was responding by changing processes and hiring more staff. Berthold insisted that the government’s management was “chaotic,” listing a number of alleged ministerial sins, accusing the prime minister of abandoning Canadians. Gould again recited her empathetic talking points, and repeated the answer. Berthold then called Marco Mendicino’s struggles the “Pinocchio Affair,” before demanding his resignation (and the Speaker did not cut him off for doing so, but after he finished warned against name-calling). Pablo Rodriguez took this one, stating the opposition is divided and they can’t agree on anything, and called out the Conservatives for their love of filibusters. Dan Albas took over in English to first raise the cheap outrage story about the GG’s flight, then panned Chrystia Freeland’s speech before demanding that the government adopt their plans to fight inflation. Randy Boissonnault insisted that the Conservatives only had bluster, while the government had a list of affordability measures. Albas raised the escalators in user fees tied to inflation and demanded they be halted, but Boissonnault reiterated his same response. 

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and raised the problems at passport offices before redeploying the talking point that the federal government should mind its own business rather than “meddling” in Quebec’s affairs. Karina Gould assured him that they had hired new staff and were hiring more. Therrien then pivoted to the Information Commissioner’s report on the record number of Access to Information complaints, and Mona Fortier assured him that they were working to increase transparency and proactive disclosures (which is pretty much famous last words from this government).

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he worried that the increase in the GST credit would be $7, which was insufficient. Boissonnault listed the measures in the budget to help people. Singh repeated his question in French, and Boissonnault repeated his same response en français.

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QP: Still on repeat, again and again

While Justin Trudeau was isolating, he had once again pledged to appear by Zoom, and lo, he did, and all of the other leaders were present as well. Candice Bergen led off, her script in front of her, and she raised Bill Blair’s testimony at committee yesterday, insisting that this was a contradiction to what Marco Mendicino had previously said. (Not really, because apparently there is no room for nuance in politics). She insisted that Mendicino was “misleading” Canadians and demanded his removal from the portfolio. Justin Trudeau reminded her that police do not give themselves emergency powers, that the government does, and that these measures were debated and voted upon in the House of Commons after police and municipalities said they needed more tools to end the occupation and blockades. Bergen listed the supposed misinformation that led to the invocation, torquing what was actually stated at the time and in the confusion of the events. Trudeau noted that the Bergen and the Conservatives were scrambling to make people forget their support for the occupation. Bergen insisted that Mendicino must be covering for the prime minister’s problems, which makes no sense, but nevertheless Trudeau noted the job losses and factories being closed as a result of the occupation and the other blockades at borders. Bergen went off on a tangent about Trudeau supposedly firing strong women who stand up to him but keeping weak ministers (and had Chrystia Freeland been in attendance, I would have been curious to see her gestures in response), and Trudeau reiterated that the Conservatives were trying to cover that they were in the wrong. Bergen tried to extend that tangent, bringing up other weak ministers like Harjit Sajjan, and Trudeau repeated his asserting that this was about the Conservatives deflection from being on the wrong side.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he too insisted that Mendicino had misled Parliament because police did not request the Emergencies Act, and Trudeau reminded him that police don’t request powers and that it is up to governments to make those decisions, which they did after police said they needed new tools. Blanchet reiterated that someone wasn’t telling the truth, and Trudeau repeated his response.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the Bloc, reciting dubious statistics about how inflation is hurting Canadians, and insisted that the government was refusing to give direct support to families who need it. Trudeau suggested he talk to families who had their childcare costs cut in half thanks to federal intervention, and that the indexed benefits would be rolling out in weeks. Singh repeated his question in French, demanding support for their proposal to increase the GST credit and Canada Child Benefit, and Trudeau said that he CCB was already going up in weeks because of indexing. 

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QP: Stuck on Repeat

While in isolation for his COVID diagnosis, the prime minister pledged to appear virtually, and all of the other leaders were present for a change. Candice Bergen led off, script in front of her, and she went on a paean about telling the truth—which is rich coming from her—and demanded that the prime minister have Marco Mendicino step away from his job. Justin Trudeau, by video, read a list of people who stated at the time of the occupation who stated that their powers had been exhausted, which is why they invoked the Emergencies Act. Bergen outright demanded Mendicino’s resignation, and Trudeau reminded her police should not be able to grant themselves emergency powers, which is why government invoked the Act to give them powers that he listed. Bergen again demanded Mendicino resign, and Trudeau said that this was about the Conservatives trying to hope people forgot their support for the occupation. Bergen then pivoted to the bureaucrat who attended the Russian Embassy party, and Trudeau responded by saying he just got off the phone with Voldoymyr Zelenskyy, but did state that the attendance was unacceptable. Bergen said that the minister must be either dishonest or incompetent, and Trudeau repeated that he just spoke with Zelenskyy and that this did not come up because it wasn’t important in the grand scheme of what is Canada is doing for Ukraine.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he cited the Globe and Mail in saying that the government knew their GHG reductions targets were not credible. Trudeau disputed this, citing those who support the plan which he termed “realistic and ambitious.” Blanchet disputed their support and raised the “fantasy” of carbon sequestration, and Trudeau repeated the list of those who supported the feasibility of their plan.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he cited a survey response that one quarter of Canadians would not be able to afford their homes if interest rates go up—a figure I have serious doubts about—and demanded direct action to help people to keep their homes. Trudeau recited his talking points about the measures the government is taking to increase housing affordability. Singh repeated the demand in French, and Trudeau recited the French version of the same talking points.

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Roundup: Just who is lacking in self-awareness?

It’s day one-hundred-and-ten of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian forces have destroyed a bridge liking Severodonetsk with its twin city of Lysychansk, which cuts off a possible escape route for civilians fleeting Severodonetsk. Street-by-street fighting continues in that city. Meanwhile, here’s a look at the uneasy state that inhabitants of Kyiv find themselves in at this juncture of the war. Elsewhere, two UK citizens and one Moroccan fighting on Ukraine’s behalf has been captured and given an illegal show trial by the so-called separatist government in Donetsk, and has been sentenced to death, creating an international outcry.

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1535918133801889799

Closer to home, I’ve seen a few conservatives sharing a two-minutes video of Justin Trudeau talking with what I presume to be a radio or podcast that he appeared on while in California last week, talking about how there has been a backsliding of democracy around the world because it’s hard and takes work, and you have people who are offering simple solutions and stirring up hate against other groups to achieve their ends. While these conservatives seem to think that Trudeau lacks self-awareness here, I suspect that they are the ones who need to look in the mirror. Trudeau is not saying that the solution to the problems are to “fire the gatekeepers,” or the governor of the Bank of Canada, while making contradictory statements about the housing market. Are the current Liberal policies getting it done? Some of them, but I struggle to think of some simple solutions he’s offering for complex problems. I’m also not sure who they think he’s stirring up divisions against, unless they think that the unvaccinated are an identifiable minority whose rights need to be protected (they made a choice and get to live with the consequences of that choice), or that because he said mean things about the coalition of far-right extremists, grifters, conspiracy theorists and grievances tourists who occupied downtown Ottawa for three weeks that somehow he’s the monster (and if these conservatives want to go to bat for that crowd, then they should do so honestly and not whitewash just who those occupiers were, pretending that this was some kind of class warfare). And while I don’t have a great deal of affection for Trudeau, and think that he’s really his own worst enemy, he’s not wrong in what he says in that clip, and if conservatives think that he’s somehow talking about himself, they should give their heads a shake.

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Roundup: Lessons to be learned, and hopefully soon

It’s day one-hundred-and-eight of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the fighting continues around Severodonetsk. For the people of the city, they can see what happens when they fall under Russian control—in Mariupol, which has fallen, the remaining residents are dealing with the fact that sanitation has broken down, and corpses are being left to rot, which means there has been an outbreak of dysentery and cholera. Meanwhile, it looks like Russia’s move is to attempt to keep the fighting going on for long enough for the West to lose interest, at which point they can push for Ukraine to make territorial concessions, which Ukraine has no interest in doing.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1535149890950643712

Closer to home, some of the official counts from the Ontario election have been released, and it’s disrupted a whole lot of narratives, particularly around the notion that it was vote-splitting that sunk the NDP’s chances. Nope—in the vast majority of ridings, the Conservatives won by a margin larger than both the Liberals and NDP votes combined. And yes, I know it’s easier to blame the other guy than looking at your own abysmal performance, but come on. Full thread from Mike Moffatt here, and some additional commentary from Hunter Knifton on the Liberal loss here.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1535296477202993154

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1535307246028087297

https://twitter.com/hunterknifton/status/1535323152963837953

Meanwhile, Scott Reid (not the MP, the other one) calls out the Toronto Star editorial board’s assumptions that Pierre Poilievre is just putting on a show that he’ll moderate once he wins the leadership. Reid doesn’t believe he will, and I suspect he’s right. Full thread here, but some highlights. As to whether the Liberals can let go of their happy-clappy pabulum and take this threat seriously, I have some serious doubts, which should worry everyone.

https://twitter.com/_scottreid/status/1535267527139418113

https://twitter.com/_scottreid/status/1535267532449501184

https://twitter.com/_scottreid/status/1535267544935845889

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Roundup: Advice versus requests

It’s day one-hundred-and-six of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Ukraine has filed eight more alleged war crime cases to court, while Ukrainian troops are holding out in the ruins of Severodonetsk as Russian forces advance in the region. Further south, Russians have been targeting agricultural sites including warehouses, because it seems they are deliberately provoking an international food crisis in order to gain some kind of leverage. Here is a look at the situation in the eastern city of Bakhmut, who feel abandoned by Kyiv. The Speaker of the Ukrainian parliament has made a plea to the European Parliament to speed the process to name Ukraine a candidate for European membership, as that declaration could send a strong signal to Russia.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1534633310651047936

Closer to home, there is a great deal of discussion as to whether or not Marco Mendicino lied when he said that he acted on the advice of law enforcement in invoking the Emergencies Act, in light of the clarification of his deputy minister. I’m probably going to write something longer on this, but I will make the point that police chiefs saying they didn’t request it is fully appropriate because they should not request it—that would be outside of their bounds as it is a highly political act to invoke it, and the minister needs to wear it. But Mendicino has been hidebound to pabulum talking points and bland reassurances, which is where the confusion is creeping in, and is compounding to weaselly behaviour. In any case, this thread by Matt Gurney lays out a lot of what we know, with some interventions along the way which add further shades of grey to this whole affair.

https://twitter.com/mattgurney/status/1534528096828809217

https://twitter.com/thomasjuneau/status/1534617515158122498

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1534539298363654144

https://twitter.com/davidreevely/status/1534541264791773188

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Roundup: No, an electoral agreement won’t work

Because Doug Ford and his merry band of incompetent murderclowns have decided to make Ontario miserable again with eleventh-hour changes and nonsensical measures (sorry, guys, but I am going to be insufferably bitter about the gyms being closed down again), there is once again talk about how the provincial Liberals and the NDP need to come to some kind of agreement in order to get Ford out. Which is insane.

https://twitter.com/AaronWherry/status/1478063212281085953

https://twitter.com/AaronWherry/status/1478064242985246720

The Liberals and NDP, provincially and federally, are not the same party, don’t have the same positions, and even if they both err on the side of progressivity, and frankly, it’s a major betrayal of local democracy if you’re telling your riding associations not to run candidates because of some cockamamie plan that involves dubious polls or results from an election three-and-a-half years ago with other factors in play which are irrelevant to the current context. Sorry, but no. The opposition parties need to come up with a coherent message and plan to sell to the people of Ontario, and to be steadfast in holding Ford to account rather than letting him get away with his folksy aw-shucks routine. It means the parties need to organise their ground game. It means a proper electoral contest, not a theoretical exercise based on bullshit reasoning.

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