Tag Archives: Maple Crown

Roundup: Poilievre on the first ballot

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Not unexpectedly, Pierre Poilievre won the Conservative leadership race quite handily on the first ballot, with some sixty-eight percent of the vote, and winning the point share in about 300 of the 338 ridings around the country. This is going to be declared “decisive,” and that it will force the caucus to rally around him, but I have some doubts, particularly as you had MPs who were openly questioning their future in the party under a Poilievre win. We’ll see where they go in the coming weeks, but Poilievre is already making some backroom changes, including replacing the board of the party’s fundraising arm—because replacing the entire party machinery with loyalists is one way to ensure that the membership is stymied from holding you to account in the future (and yes, the Liberals are most especially guilty of this after Trudeau oversaw the party’s constitution be replaced with one dedicated to total control by the leader’s office). We’ll also see who he picks for his front-bench.

As for what this means moving to the next election, there is a lot of doubt that Poilievre is going to “pivot to the centre,” because he doesn’t think he can win there. He is likely to try and get more votes from the far-right, and access votes from there by appealing to them in various ways, as he has explicitly done so far, whether it was supporting the occupation in Ottawa, or playing along with conspiracy theories like those around the World Economic Forum. You’re going to have a lot of talking heads bring up that “300 ridings!” figure to show that he somehow has support across the country, when that is a massive sample selection bias, which shows that he knows how to organize small numbers nationally, but says nothing about the broader public. And while this thread from Justin Ling is good to read, I will echo his caution that calling Poilievre a “white supremacist” plays into his hands—his wife is from Venezuela, his children are mixed-race, and if the media tries the narrative on him, he will eviscerate them for it, while reminding everyone yet again about Trudeau’s history of Blackface. His opponents can’t play the game he wants them to play, but we’ll see if they have the capacity or ability. As for media, well, I suspect they will continue to keep both-sidesing his lies, and he’ll keep beating up on them, and on and on it goes.

For pundit reaction, Aaron Wherry remarks on Poilievre’s vow to remain as loud and antagonistic a populist as possible, and how he has been willing to undermine the institutions of democracy his whole careers. Jen Gerson considers Poilievre’s win the death knell of moderate conservatism in Canada, but it’s less a question of policy than of temperament. Althia Raj buys into the notion that Poilievre’s caucus will be more united, which frees up energy to fight the Liberals. Chantal Hébert believes that Poilievre’s victory will convince Trudeau to stay on for the next election, believing that he can’t let Poilievre win.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 200:

The counter-offensive, particularly in the north-eastern part of Ukraine, has been advancing at a rapid pace, and Russians are fleeing with minimal resistance, leaving a lot of weapons and ammunition behind. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy put out a video mocking the Russian retreat, saying that it’s showing their best side. Further south, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant has now been completely shut down in order to prevent a nuclear catastrophe as shelling continues in the region. Meanwhile, in Sloviansk, in Donetsk province, continues to see artillery attacks as Russian forces try to take the entire Donbas region. While the counter-attack is a positive sign, it is likely that the conflict will continue for some time, with the added complication that Western allies are starting to run out of inventory to donate to the effort, and everyone needs to beware of what Putin may do when he feels like he’s been backed into a corner.

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Roundup: Charles III’s first address

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King Charles III made his first public address in his new role, and like his mother before him, pledged to serve for as long as he lives (sorry fantasists who think he’ll abdicate in favour of William). And this was addressed not only to the UK, but also to all of the realms where he is also King, and to the rest of the Commonwealth as well, even if he is not their head of state.

More of the ceremonial aspects of the transition takes place today, from the Accession Council in the UK, to the meeting of the Privy Council at Rideau Hall, where the Canadian Cabinet will make the accession declaration for the King of Canada.

https://twitter.com/Gray_Mackenzie/status/1568435618304098305

Meanwhile, I cannot get over the fact that Canadian media outlets cannot get the basic civics straight in the fact that Elizabeth II was the Queen of Canada, and Charles III is the King of Canada. The CBC in particular continues to treat the monarchy as a foreign curiosity rather than the very centre of our constitutional order. Occasionally they will cite that the Queen was Canada’s head of state, which is only true on a technicality, and outlets like The Canadian Press are making similar declarations. We’re a constitutional monarchy. I don’t know why this seems to be so difficult for mainstream media outlets to process and relay correctly. There should be no excuse for it, and yet when it matters, they are simply unable—or unwilling—to present the facts as they exist. It’s no wonder we’re in such trouble.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 198:

The Ukrainian counter-offensive continues to make slow and steady progress on various fronts, but that hasn’t stopped Russians from shelling cities like Bakhmut in the east, or Kharkiv in the north. Shelling also continues around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which continues to be on emergency power to run its cooling systems because repairs cannot be made to the power lines connecting it to the grid so long as the shelling continues. The International Atomic Energy Agency continues to call for a “safety zone” around the plant, but we know how well Russia abides by agreements.

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Roundup: The Queen is dead. Long live the King.

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The Queen is dead. Long live the King.

With the passing of the Queen, Charles immediately has ascended to the throne as Charles III, as you do in a monarchy. Because of the continuity of the Crown as a corporation sole, everything carries on as it was, with a few cosmetic changes as all of the references to the Queen in legislation and in offices and institutions transition to references to King, all done automatically thanks to legislative instruments like the Interpretation Act.

  • Here is a BBC royal correspondent’s look back at the Queen’s life.
  • Philippe Lagassé lays out the legal matters of succession in Canada.
  • Anne Twomey explains the Queen’s use of soft power in the Australian context, where she had more power than she let on.
  • From the archives, Susan Delacourt spoke with former prime ministers and Governors General about their time spent with the Queen.
  • The Queen’s image will remain on coins and banknotes for years to come, and would be phased out gradually as new coins and bills enter circulation.

 

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 198:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukrainian forces have liberated over 1000 square kilometres of territory since the counter-attacks began on September 1st, but information is still hard to come by.

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Roundup: Jubilee Weekend (not that you’d know it in Canada)

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It’s day one hundred-and-three of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Kyiv has once again come under attack from Russian missiles, who claimed this was about hitting tanks donated by Western countries. Ukrainians, meanwhile, say they have reclaimed Sievierokonetsk in a counter-offensive, but this has not yet been verified. Ukrainians are taking losses, between 60 to 100 per day which is more than the Americans took daily than in the worst of the Vietnam War, but this may also galvanize to them fight even harder as more advanced weapons from allies arrive. Here are stories from the southern city of Mykolaiv, where the shelling is constant.

Meanwhile, NATO is kicking off two weeks of naval exercise in the Baltic Sea which will include Sweden and Finland, while NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has been meeting with Turkey’s president to try and solve the impasse of Turkey blocking Sweden and Finland’s entry into the alliance.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085

Closer to home, it was the celebrations of the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee over the weekend, even though the Canadian government kept things as low-key as they possibly could. I have real trepidation about the way in which this government seems to think of Canadian monarchy as an afterthought, because it inevitably leads to politicisation when Conservatives put in more effort, and that is the absolute last thing we want or need. It’s an institution for everyone, and needs to be treated as such. There were, nevertheless, a few CanCon elements in the celebrations in London, as well as some royal Kremlinology about what it all signalled. Tangentially related to the celebration was the 150th anniversary of the Governor General’s Foot Guards in Ottawa, who got their own parade.

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Roundup: Brown’s poor choice of words

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It is approximately day ninety-six of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia has stormed the city of Sievierodonetsk after trying unsuccessfully to encircle it. Some 90 percent of the cities buildings are damaged, and Russian forces have not cared about civilian casualties. At the same time, president Volodymyr Zelensky ventured out of Kyiv and visited the city of Kharkiv, and thanked the Ukrainian defenders in that city who pushed the Russian invasion back on that front.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is getting new shore-to-ship missiles from Denmark while howitzers from the US are arriving, and it is hoped that these missiles can help better defend their coast line (and possibly sink the Russian Black Sea fleet in the process). Also, here is a look at those evacuating from cities like Lysychansk in eastern Ukraine.

Closer to home, Patrick Brown is trying to walk back on his calling social conservatives “dinosaurs” in his book, saying it was a “poor choice of words.” But he was trying to make a point in the statement that those dinosaurs are becoming less relevant to the party, which in Ontario especially, tends to mean that you need to go on bended knee to Charles McVety and his particular ilk so that you can get their endorsement, which Doug Ford was certainly willing to do, and Brown was not, instead trying to expand the party membership through other ethno-cultural communities that could go around that traditional social conservative membership bloc. And I’ve heard certain Conservative organisers say that they want “open memberships” like the Liberals have in order to grow the party away from being beholden to the social conservatives—erm, but maybe you should just adopt more centrist or mainstream policies that will attract more people to the party if you want to move away from that particular base. Mind you, there is a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation in that those members will keep fighting to keep the policy book in their favour, but there is also no guarantee that “open memberships” will help you organise around these social conservatives any differently either. Suffice to say, if the party wants to grow away from this base, it requires a lot more organisational ability than they seem to be demonstrating to date.

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Roundup: Enjoy your Victoria Day

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It’s now approximately day eighty-seven of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia says that they now have full control of the steel plant in Mariupol, and by extension the whole city. That means Russians are starting to pull back forces from the area to redeploy elsewhere in the Donbas region, and it looks like fighting is intensifying in the Luhansk region.

Closer to home, it is Victoria Day this weekend, which is the official birthday of the Queen of Canada. So be sure to raise a toast to the current Queen, and Canada’s first Queen (and maybe while you’re at it, the Queen of the North).

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Roundup: Exit Kenney

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It is now around day eighty-five of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and more than 260 fighters have left the Mariupol steel plant, into Russian custody, where their release will be negotiated. But there will be demands for them to stand trial, just as Russian soldiers are currently—one of them pleading guilty to killing civilians yesterday.

Closer to home, Alberta premier Jason Kenney announced that he will step down after receiving only 51.4% support in the UCP’s leadership review. It’s quite something, and he’s also the sixth premier in the last decade because it has become such a poisoned chalice, so good luck to his potential successors. I’ll write more about this in the next day or two, but it’s certainly a sign of how things are going in the province.

https://twitter.com/robert_hiltz/status/1527088935725412354

As for the royal tour, day two was spent in Ottawa, starting with a ceremony to lay a wreath at the National War Memorial, a service at a Ukrainian church, a visit to the Byward Market, the RCMP Musical Ride, a round table discussion on climate finance, and finally a reception at Rideau Hall. There were good crowds for all of them, and it’s a very different reception than the attention of certain other tours this year. At the reception, AFN national chief RoseAnne Archibald raised the notion of an apology from the Queen (which is a bad idea), for what it’s worth. Meanwhile, here is an in-depth look at the first day of the royal tour and its broader context after William and Catherine’s Caribbean royal tour.

https://twitter.com/ClarenceHouse/status/1527013393542131712

https://twitter.com/ClarenceHouse/status/1527053388428484608

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Roundup: Royal tour, day one

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It is now approximately day eighty-four of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and we have some confirmation now that the fighting in Mariupol is at an end. Both sides are claiming victory—Russia claiming it is a mass surrender, Ukraine stating that the garrison achieved their objectives, and in particular, they tied up Russian forces that couldn’t be deployed elsewhere, as those forces have been pushed back, as far as the border in some cases. There is now a negotiated withdrawal taking place, and prisoner swaps may be in the works, so we’ll see how this plays out.

Elsewhere, it sounds like today is the day that Sweden and Finland both make their applications to NATO, and while Turkey is still being sour about it, but we’ll see what particular concessions they try to extract before their membership is accepted.

Closer to home, it was the first day of Charles and Camilla’s royal tour, starting in Newfoundland and Labrador. They visited the provincial legislature, the lieutenant governor’s residence, and the village of Quidi Vidi, as well as met with residential school survivors. Prince Charles did talk about the need for reconciliation in his speech, and that is going to be one of the themes of the tour.

https://twitter.com/ClarenceHouse/status/1526656706914271233

https://twitter.com/ClarenceHouse/status/1526657592495423490

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Roundup: The usual rote nonsense ahead of a royal tour

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It is now approximately day eighty-two of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and British intelligence is suggesting that Russia has lost up to a third of its forces in the Donbas region, and is significantly behind its schedule for the invasion of the region. There was also chatter over social media over the weekend that Ukrainian forces have pushed Russians far enough away from Kharkiv that the city is largely out of danger, so we’ll see if that holds. As well, Ukraine won Eurovision over the weekend, so that is also a bit of a nice morale boost for the country.

Meanwhile, Finland and Sweden are moving ever closer to officially applying for NATO membership, and Finland’s president has gone so far as to tell Vladimir Putin directly that they are apply, but that they would continue to engage on issues in a bilateral manner. There remains the complication of Turkey, who has become more clear in the demands they have before they would be willing to admit these new members, particularly around groups that these governments have supported which the Turkish government opposes.

Closer to home, it’s royal tour week, as Charles and Camilla arrive tomorrow, and once again, we get the usual rote nonsense from news outlets courting republicans to give the tired lines about “scepticism” of the monarchy, without noting that it’s going to be nigh impossible to remove them because a) it requires unanimous consent on the constitution from provinces, and b) there is zero consensus on what would replace them, and even if they did, that would be the conclusion of the colonial project around Indigenous peoples in this country, given that their treaties are with the Crown. And yes, that very much means something. There are of course a few special cases who think we should replace the current royal family with someone Canadian, but I am a bit dubious on that for the same reason as there being no consensus on who that might be, because for better or worse, the status quo has a thousand years of history behind them, which is pretty important in the grand scheme of things. Love or loathe the family themselves, the system works better than any of the alternatives, and we shouldn’t dismiss that out of hand.

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Roundup: The showboat special committee

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It’s now around day sixty-three of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia is waving around the threat of nuclear action if NATO members don’t stop arming Ukraine, which some are taking as mere talk. But still. There have also been more attacks over the border in Moldova, which Russia is trying to blame on Ukraine. Allied defence ministers met in Germany, and more weapons are on the way to Ukraine, so that warning by Russia isn’t dissuading them too much.

https://twitter.com/rafaelmgrossi/status/1519031867642728450

Closer to home, the special joint committee on the Emergencies Act (which is not the inquiry) held their first major meetings last night, hearing from two ministers, and ostensibly the commissioner of the RCMP and the head of CSIS, but those latter two barely got any questions, because like I predicted seven weeks ago, this was really just about showboating as opposed to substance. And yeah—showboating and demands to release documents that we have no idea if they’d actually be relevant (but still operating under the assumption that the government is engaged in some sort of cover-up), while Conservatives still went to bat for the far-right extremists, grifters and conspiracy theorists who made up the occupation.

https://twitter.com/AaronWherry/status/1519079631042789378

https://twitter.com/AaronWherry/status/1519081717126074369

What we did hear from Marco Mendicino included the fact that the Ottawa Police being the police of jurisdiction created challenges, and that that they had no choice but to invoke the Act in as limited way as possible. The head of CSIS did manage to get a question, in which he said that the agency is spending about fifty percent of their time currently on ideologically-motivated violent extremism, and that extremist content in the occupation didn’t surprise him. You can read Rachel Aiello’s livetweeting thread here for more, but it was pretty ridiculous overall. It’s a sad indictment of the fact that we are no longer a serious parliament made up of serious people, taking the business of the nation seriously.

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