Tag Archives: Maple Crown

Roundup: Axing the other tax, just because

Posted on by

Because he is unable to pivot, or have any kind of plan B, Pierre Poilievre went to a steel plant yesterday to announce that he will not only repeal the full legislation that implemented the carbon levy, but he’ll also repeal the industrial carbon price under the bullshit magical thinking of “technology, not taxes.” The problem? Most provinces have their own industrial pricing schemes, and the federal backstop only applies to a couple of provinces, and mostly it set a price floor so that provinces can’t undercut one another. None of this is actually news, thought, as he’s been saying it for months, but most legacy media treated this as new and novel. Industry doesn’t like his plan—they prefer the industrial pricing system because it provides stability. But Poilievre needs a tax to axe, so he’s going all-in on making this a carbon price election after all, because he’s that incapable.

 

The problem with “technology not taxes” is that the price signals sent by carbon pricing are what incentivise companies to invest in the technology to reduce emissions. They won’t do it out of the goodness of their hearts. They need to feel the squeeze before they’ll invest to make the changes, and that won’t happen if they are given free licence to just pollute without consequence. You would think that a conservative party would understand market dynamics, but no. They don’t have an intellectual grounding any longer, they’re just rage-baiters looking to “own the Libs” by any means necessary. Oh, and the EU is going to start putting in carbon border adjustments, so if we’re pivoting our trade to those markets, well, our not having a price will find us being punished by their markets, so maybe this is a really dumb idea after all.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine’s military shot down 90 out of 170 drones overnight Monday, with damage and injuries reported in Odesa. Russians also claim that they are moving ahead in Zaporizhzhia region, saying they are pushing through Ukrainian lines. Ukraine has attacked energy facilities in Russia’s Astrakhan region, sparking a fire.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Delusions about Canadian defence industry capabilities

Posted on by

On Sunday, following NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s trip to Nunavut, he released an Arctic sovereignty and defence policyin a bit of pre-election posturing. The actual Arctic sovereignty stuff was reasonably fine, which mostly involves better investments in Northern and Inuit communities, but the defence part? Hoo boy. To start off, it was poorly worded in talking about “repatriating” the F-35 contract to “build the jets” in Canada, but it wasn’t immediately clear if he thought they could build the F-35s in Canada (nope), or if it meant restarting the entire process for selecting a new fighter, which again, isn’t really possible at this stage as the CF-18s are at the absolute end of their lifespan, and we can’t just turn procurements off on a dime.

As Philippe Lagassé explains, yes, we need to pivot away from American platforms, but that needs to be done in a managed and methodical way that is going to take years, and the NDP need to realise this (and so, frankly, to the Liberals given the kinds of crazy things all of the leadership contenders were saying during their debates). But seriously, guys, you can’t just claim we’ll meet all of our military obligations with Canadian industries alone. That’s not even wishful thinking—it’s full-on delusion. You may think that Bombardier’s vapourware promises sound great, because Canadian jobs, but when they can’t deliver? Those are some pretty hefty consequences to face.

https://bsky.app/profile/plagasse.bsky.social/post/3lkjgfvradc2r

https://bsky.app/profile/plagasse.bsky.social/post/3lkji3fx3ps2r

https://bsky.app/profile/plagasse.bsky.social/post/3lkjijakxuc2r

https://bsky.app/profile/plagasse.bsky.social/post/3lkjivko5i22r

Carbon levy gaslighting

In amidst a bunch of “trutherism” about the document that Mark Carney signed on Friday to zero out the consumer carbon levy (for which they published an extra edition of the Canada Gazette to enact), the Conservative continue to insist that Carney is just going to raise it back up after an election, which seems to be admitting that he’s going to win, which is kind of funny.

Meanwhile, the Liberals are doing themselves no favours by spending the weekend praising Carney for “getting it done” in ending their own signature environmental policy. And Liberal MPs were all over social media patting themselves on the back for “listening to Canadians,” and making up outright Orwellian excuses for defeating their own gods damned policy. And then their supporters were in my replies offering up straight-up revisionist history about the carbon price and trying to blame it on Stephen Harper, I shit you not. I really, really not appreciate being gaslit about your stupid political moves, especially when they refuse to own why it became so divisive, particularly when they refused to properly explain or defend their own policies.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones hit a high-rise building in Chernihiv. Contrary to the Russian propaganda that Trump has been reading, Ukrainian troops in Kursk region are not encircled, even though the Russians are pushing forward to move Ukrainian troops from the region.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Positive feelings about a useless meeting

Posted on by

We seem to be caught in a pattern where Donald Trump will invite a world leader to the White House—yesterday it was NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte—and he goes on an unhinged rant while they’re sitting there, trying to avoid saying anything that will set him off. And yesterday’s rant included a full-on threat to annex Greenland (while Rutte tried to downplay NATO’s involvement in any way, which is true to the extent that it only operates by consensus), and went on an extended rant about Canada not working as a real country, and made up the lie that America pays for our military (not true in the slightest), before repeating the falsehood that the US subsidizes us.

Meanwhile, Dominic LeBlanc and François-Philippe Champagne had their meeting with Howard Lutnick, with Doug Ford along for the ride as he continued to try and make himself the main character (and I watched Conservative talking head pundits also putting forward this distorted view of reality). Ford came out of the meeting, effusive about how “positive” it was and how they were going to have more meetings next week (and was later corrected that officials were going to meet, not him), while the two ministers basically talked a lot and said nothing, because nothing could be accomplished here. But they had to pretend that something came from this meeting when obviously nothing did, as there were no changes to any tariffs, and Ford’s pressure tactic around the electricity “surcharge” remains off the table again.

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lkc6vantcc2f

Elsewhere, Trump’s pick for US ambassador to Canada had his Senate confirmation hearing, and when asked, he said that Canada is a sovereign country, and tried to claim that Trump’s expansionist rhetoric is about “negotiation tactics,” but it certainly doesn’t seem to be. And yeah, he said the bare minimum to ensure that he wasn’t PNGed before he could even arrive in the country. Closer to home, Scott Moe continues to call for capitulation to China regarding their tariff fight, because of course he did, and claimed it was about protecting Quebec’s industries over Saskatchewan’s, except Quebec doesn’t really have much of an auto sector, but Moe’s brain is pretty smooth, after all.

Ukraine Dispatch

An overnight attack on Dnipro injured three women and damaged apartment buildings. Ukrainian forces are in retreat in parts of Kursk region, which means losing a bargaining chip in possible peace negotiations. And Putin has all kinds of conditions on a possible ceasefire, because he’s not serious, and Ukraine only went along with the plan to call his bluff.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Offering a limited reprieve

Posted on by

Because the trade war is many ways a weird power dynamic, yesterday was all about offers of reprieves. After a lengthy phone call between Justin Trudeau and Trump, there came word of a “reprieve” on tariffs for the auto sector—for a month—but at the behest of the Big Three auto companies rather than any of Trudeau’s efforts, and while there hasn’t been official word, Senior Government Sources™ are saying that Trudeau is not budging on the retaliatory measures. And why would he? The one-month reprieve came with the message from both JD Vance and Trump’s press secretary that they want those manufacturers to locate all of their factories in the US to avoid tariffs, but the “official” reason for the tariffs remains fentanyl, because Trump needs the legal fiction of a “national emergency” to use executive powers to levy tariffs rather than Congress (but he controls that, so the logic only extends so far). Oh, and now Trump is talking about agricultural carveouts, because they’re stupid and don’t realise the consequences of their actions until it’s too late.

In provincial reactions, both Danielle Smith and Scott Moe said they were pulling American liquor from their provincial liquor control boards, a day after everyone else. Smith had to put on a big show that included one of her Alberta Sheriffs holding a big rifle to show that she was super serious about them patrolling the border (not that they can legally do much more than taxi that person to an authorised federal border agent or RCMP officer). Both Smith and Moe also insisted that they didn’t want export taxes on either oil or potash, which again, is a boneheaded move of signalling to Trump that they don’t want to play their strongest cards ever (because they’re both super geniuses). Of course, it’s not their call because those powers are federal, but it’s still a sign of how unserious either of them is in the face of an existential threat. Meanwhile, Yukon premier Raj Pillai is “considering” limiting ties with Elon Musk’s businesses, like Starlink (which seems like something they should be doing more than just considering).

There was also word that there was more progress on interprovincial trade barriers and incremental progress toward credentials recognition—with some exceptions for Quebec because of linguistic requirements (but I still have questions about how they plan to get self-regulating bodies like the colleges of physicians and surgeons to play ball).

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile hit a hotel in Kryvyi Rih, killing three and injuring at least twenty-nine others. The Americans are cutting off the flow of intelligence to Ukraine, because they’re now on Putin’s side. A Ukrainian commander says that NATO forces are not ready for modern drone warfare. Here is an examination of the state of the war, and that it would take Russia 118 years to fully conquer Ukraine at their present rate of advancement.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Begun, the trade war has

Posted on by

The inevitable has happened—Trump’s tariffs are now in effect, after Trump told reporters in his daily ramblings that there was nothing Canada or Mexico could do to forestall them. It was obvious they were going to happen—Trump and his economic advisors have decided that they love tariffs, and that it’s going to solve their revenue problems for the big tax cuts they plan to give billionaires. It won’t—tariffs are paid by the importers, who pass it along to consumers, but Trump refuses to believe that, so it’s the American people who are coming in for a world of hurt, especially as the stock market started to plunge once the markets started to realise that Trump was being serious.

Here at home, Justin Trudeau announced that the first tranche of retaliatory measures would start immediately, with more to come after consultation. Of course, the last line in his statement should have been the first—that it’s the Americans who have broken the agreement that Trump himself signed, which speaks volumes about the Americans can no longer be trusted to uphold their own agreements. Oh, and Trump is still planning on increasing duties on lumber coming from Canada, so keep an eye out for that as well. As the trade war ramps up, here is a look at what to expect, and how provinces are also expected to respond with their own measures.

True to form, Pierre Poilievre decided that blaming the government for the imposition of tariffs was the way to go, with a bunch of mendacious fabrications about what they have and have not been doing, with the have-not mostly being to implement his plans with alacrity, as though he’s a super genius who has it all figured out, when, well, we know that’s not exactly true.

Of course, we were also treated to a Doug Ford performance, as he got all theatrically angry on American television and threatened to cut off electricity across the border, and that he would do it with a smile. Of course, Ford (who is claiming he got a “stronger mandate” in last week’s election in spite of losing seats) is all talk. His bluff is going to be called, and no electricity will actually be cut off, because it’s not going to be that easy to do in spite of what he thinks, and you can bet he’ll come up with some kind of excuse about why he was all bluster.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone attack injured four and damaged energy infrastructure in Odesa. Ukraine is also investigating negligence surrounding a Russian missile strike on a military graining ground over the weekend. As expected, the Americans have “paused” their aid to Ukraine, as last week’s ambush was a set-up in order to give a justification for their plans to do so.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Implicating the King, and trying to cause a crisis

Posted on by

Following the sickening ambush at the White House on Friday, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy flew to London for a conference on security in Europe now that it’s clear that the United States is no longer an ally, and prime minister Justin Trudeau also flew to London to attend. In advance of the conference, Zelenskyy met with King Charles at his Sandringham residence (which touched off some grousing online in Canada—more on that in a minute). At the conference,  UK prime minister Keir Starmer seemed to try to play up that the US was still a “reliable ally,” but I’m not sure anyone else in Europe (except maybe Hungary) actually believes that, nor should they. Following the conference, Trudeau was adamant about supporting Zelenskyy, and also had a one-on-one with Starmer, where no doubt the topic of Starmer throwing Canada under the bus came up for discussion, even though the readout of the conversation was very, very diplomatic in the choice of words.

Meanwhile, back in Canada, CTV seemed to be doing their absolute utmost to create a constitutional crisis because they contacted Buckingham Palace to see if the King would say something about the “51st State” threats, and surprising nobody who has a clue about constitutional monarchy, they would not comment. BECAUSE OF COURSE THEY CAN’T WITHOUT THE ADVICE OF THE GOVERNMENT. But that didn’t stop absolutely everyone from deciding that they were suddenly an expert on constitutional monarchy and what is and is not permissible for a monarch to say without the advice of the government, and the absolute worst part was that CTV took the opportunity to start both-sidesing those reactions, because who needs fact-based journalism when you’re trying to stir up controversy in order to get clicks for the attention economy?

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3ljekymxfv22f

This should be basic civics—something people learn about in grade five, and then again in grade seven or eight, and again in high school. But nobody has a clue how this is supposed to work, most especially the people who should know, including former ministers of the Crown. This in turns leads to a whole lot of people insisting that an apolitical monarchy isn’t good for anything, and people who were already small-r republicans are using this as an excuse to agitate for an end to the monarchy, and good fucking luck to them, considering it would require a) a coherent plan to replace it, and b) the unanimous consent of the Commons, the Senate, and all ten provinces in order to rewrite the entire constitution, because that’s not something you can just search-and-replace.

Trudeau is having a meeting with the King this morning before he leaves London, and it’s possible that he will advise the King to make some kind of statement, particularly now that sentiment has been stirred up because people who should now better have implicated the King when it was Starmer who threw us under the bus in his own moral cowardice, but it never should have come to this.

Ukraine Dispatch

Late Sunday, a Russian drone hit an apartment building in Kharkiv, injuring at least eight. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy says he can salvage his relationship with Trump, though I’m not sure Trump actually wants that because he’s not a good-faith actor in this, and he is looking for any excuse to abandon Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1896321455606173969

Continue reading →

Roundup: An ambush in the White House

Posted on by

It was an ambush. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to the White House, ostensibly to sign some kind of agreement around access to critical minerals in exchange for some kind of military support or security guarantees was a set-up for Trump and JD Vance to try and humiliate Zelenskyy in front of the cameras, with one of the reporters from Russian state outlet TASS in the room (who was removed at one point by the Secret Service, but it was obvious that someone in the White House arranged for him to be there). The whole video is sickening to watch.

While Trump and Vance started broadcasting this for their followers as a supposed sign of strength, and their lackeys and apologists broadcast Russian propaganda to justify it, word also started leaking out that Trump is planning on cutting off military aid to Ukraine for Zelenskyy’s supposed intransigence and lack of desire for peace, which is of course mendacious and part of the set-up.

In the wake of this, world leaders started tweeting their support for Zelenskyy and Ukraine, and this was probably the death knell of NATO as we know it. The one leader who has been silent is Keir Starmer, but he is also hosting a summit in London today about Ukraine and European security, which Justin Trudeau will also be attending.

Here are some hot takes from Tom Nichols and David Frum, while Philippe Lagassé has some additional thoughts on the situation.

Closer to home, in an interview with the Spectator, Trump took credit for Chrystia Freeland’s supposed “firing” (she was not fired), and said that Poilievre’s problem is that “he’s not a MAGA guy.” Which is true—Poilievre doesn’t have much of a coherent ideology, but he’s not MAGA. What he is, however, is someone who will say anything that he feels he needs to in order to attract the MAGA crowd to his banner, no matter how ridiculous it is, and he has no morals, ethics, or scruples about it. Poilievre jumped on this to declare that he’s “Canada First,” and later did tweet support for Zelenskyy and Ukraine, and immediately got roasted in the comments by his MAGA supporters for it. Funny what happens when you play with fire.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1895631503469449464

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones struck a medical facility, among other targets, in Kharkiv. The framework for a mineral agreement that Ukraine was supposed to sign with the Americans, before the ambush, contained a number of gaps around security or dispute resolution, before it turned out to be a sham.

Continue reading →

Roundup: NDP remain clueless about inflation

Posted on by

Yesterday, Statistics Canada released the December inflation numbers, and they ticked up to 1.9 percent as higher energy prices offset the downward effect that the stupid GST/HST “holiday” was having on some of the indexes. That “holiday” ended last week, so that effect will end shortly, but there were also notes to watch in that some of the core measures that the Bank of Canada tracks closely started to tick back up again after months of steady declines.

In response to these results, the NDP put out a statement that crowed that the GST “holiday” had driven down food price inflation, and therefore must be made permanent. *sighs* My dudes. No. You didn’t actually read the fucking report, did you? If you had, you would have seen that the decline in food price inflation was from restaurant meals, not grocery stores, along with alcohol purchases because beer and wine was also affected by the GST/HST holiday. Also, you don’t know how inflation works, because it’s a year-over-year measure. That means that if you make it permanent, within a year, the one-time tax cut will disappear as the year-over-year figures no longer count it. It also ignores that the real driver of food price inflation is climate change (and the yes, the war in Ukraine). This is not only illiterate, but it’s sheer incompetence.

There was something else in the report that bears mentioning, that was included in the rising energy prices, which was the provincial gas tax in Manitoba. A year ago, when Wab Kinew suspended the tax, he boasted that it meant Manitoba had the lowest inflation in the country. Well, it’s a year later, and inflation is a year-over-year measure, and said gas tax has been reinstated (albeit at a lower level than it was previously). And what are Manitoba’s numbers like? Well, their energy prices increased by 25.9%. Because inflation is a year-over-year measure, and this is the price you pay for a gimmick like suspending your gas tax for populist reasons.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia has launched an overnight drone attack on Odessa, which has injured at least four. Ukraine launched their own overnight drone attack on Russia, hitting an oil refinery in the Samara region, after they previously hit a pumping station for the Caspian pipeline that supplies Kazakhstan. Russian forces claim to have control of the settlement of Yampolivka in the east, while Ukrainian forces destroyed a North Korean self-propelled howitzer in Luhansk region.

Meanwhile, president Zelenskyy is not visiting Saudi Arabia so as not to legitimise the “peace talks” that the US is holding with Russia without Ukraine or Europe present, where the US is throwing a lifeline to Putin rather than using the opportunity to maximize the pressure on him, while Trump himself was reciting Russian propaganda from the White House.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Paying $85,000 for the privilege of being humiliated

Posted on by

As if that “big” meeting the premiers had with those mid-level White House officials who ended up trolling and humiliating them couldn’t get any worse, well, it did. It turns out, they paid a lobbyist connected with Don Jr. $85,000 to arrange said meeting, where they didn’t get properly briefed, and froze out the Canadian ambassador (who had a meeting in the White House with actual senior officials earlier that day) in the process.

Because I can’t do it justice, here’s more (full thread starts here):

I’m not sure that I can stress this enough—premiers have absolutely no business trying to conduct foreign negotiations. The federal government not only has been handling the situation, but they have told the premiers not to constantly react to everything coming from the Trump administration because it’s chaotic and incoherent, and then they went and tried to get their own meetings? Them meeting with senators and governors sure, I can understand, because they are more on their level as counterparts, but it’s also pretty useless in the current environment because Trump has absolutely everyone cowed.

I’m also going to point a finger at the media for emboldening these premiers because they keep saying things like “there’s a vacuum of leadership” at the federal level and so on, which is not the case. Trudeau is still on the job, even if he’s on his way out. Ministers are still doing their jobs. We have an ambassador in Washington doing her job. They have explicitly told the media that they are not going to react to everything for very good reason. There is no actual need for the premiers to step in and start freelancing. Doug Ford’s “Captain Canada” shtick was him positioning himself before an election, and thanks to uncritical media coverage, waaaaaaaay too many people fell for it. But the media needs people to light their hair on fire at every utterance, and the premiers have been only too happy to step in and fill that role, or to give the bootlicker position (because both sides!), and the federal government just winds up sidelining itself in the process. We’re handing Trump so many little wins because nobody can keep their powder dry.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone attack damaged port infrastructure in Odesa for a second day in a row. Another Russian drone pierced the outer shell of the Chernobyl nuclear plant, and while radiation levels are normal, there is a danger if power goes offline at the site for too long. Russians also claim to have taken control of two more settlements in Donetsk region.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Touching off a trade war

Posted on by

On Saturday afternoon, it happened—under false pretenses, Donald Trump signed the executive order to put tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China (25 percent on all imports except oil and gas, which is at ten percent) coming into effect on Tuesday, with the likelihood it will rise later, and threatening that it will go up further if we retaliate. Because how dare we exercise our sovereignty.

By late evening, prime minister Justin Trudeau gave a speech, spent part of it “speaking directly to Americans” (which was not covered live on any US news stations, but did get play on Sunday), and outlined the first tranche of retaliatory tariffs, with further non-tariff measures to come into place in about twenty-one days. (The Logic has a roundup of Canadian reaction here).

Some Americans seemed confused by the response, including the New York Times, which pretty much brings us back to that Onion headline.

More troubling were the Vichy Canadians, who continue to blame Justin Trudeau for this state of affairs, including tech bros in this country, such as Canada’s Specialest Tech Bro, Tobi Lütke, who not only blamed Canada for fighting back, but bought all of Trump’s bullshit excuses. It was never about the border, or fentanyl, or NATO spending, or even trade deficits. This is about Trump wanting to use tariffs to give more billionaire tax cuts (which the tech bros in the US are all salivating over), and to assert his dominance, no matter how much it costs him internationally.

And then there was Pierre Poilievre, and while he was not explicitly being a Vichy Canadian, it didn’t help that he was still incapable of articulating an actual response other than yet another slogan (“Canada First!”), demanding things that won’t actually help (a tax cut will only help the rich, and the killing the carbon levy early will do absolutely nothing about the shocks from the tariffs, and the capital gains stopping changes only allow the wealthy to continue to engage in tax arbitrage), that require magic (internal trade barriers cannot be brought down with the snap of a finger—they’re differing regulatory standards that can’t be harmonized with the stroke of a pen), and he’s continuing to give credence to Trump’s lie that the border is a problem, because he’s been trying to claim that Trudeau “weakened” them, which has always been a lie. And while he and Conservatives cry that Parliament needs to be summoned immediately, the only reason to do so is for performance art (gotta get those clips for their socials), and for him to bring down the government at his first opportunity, because he refuses to say he will actually let any package the government brings forward, whenever that happens, pass.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1886158003272925684

https://twitter.com/mikepmoffatt/status/1886172330394636539

And then, of course, a gods damned CBC journalist made it all the worse in Poilievre’s press conference by phrasing “supporting government measures” as “stepping aside,” and Poilievre and company used that to play victim, and demand the CBC be defunded, yet again. What an absolutely stupid own-goal, and so many journalists keep making them with Poilievre.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drone and missile attacks on Saturday killed fifteen, mostly in Poltava. Ukrainian drone attacks targeted more Russian energy facilities, and sparked fires at an oil refinery in Volgograd. And Ukrainian officials are unimpressed with the American “negotiation” position of ensuring that elections are held in Ukraine after a ceasefire, given that it does nothing to deter Putin.

Continue reading →