Roundup: National Remembrance ceremonies in Canada as Kherson is liberated in Ukraine

National Remembrance Day ceremonies were held in Ottawa, with some particular attention paid to it being the 80thanniversary of the raid on Dieppe, as well as some particular attention to the memory of the Queen, who was herself a veteran of the Second World War.

Of course, someone had to be churlish and parochial today, so the Conservatives put out a press release denouncing the fact that Justin Trudeau was absent, because he’s on his way to an important summit in Asia. And he met with troops in New Brunswick yesterday, and during his refuelling stop in Alaska. And yes, Stephen Harper also missed several Remembrance Day events because of foreign travel, so the complaints about Trudeau are not only weird and hypocritical, but they’re indicative of the fact that the Pierre Poilievre has just hired an avowed shitposter as his director of communications, and this level of juvenile partisan sniping is what we can expect more of in the coming days because this is exactly what he thinks is going to speak to Canadians.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 262:

Ukrainian special forces arrived in Kherson to a hero’s welcome, but the real work begins now of trying to deal with the landmines the Russians left behind in the city. There are also concerns about “sabotage operations” by Russian troops in civilian clothes. Kherson is strategic because it allows Ukraine to control fresh water flowing to occupied Crimea, and keeps Russian control out of the southern part of the country in an attempt to keep the land bridge to Crimea.

https://twitter.com/maksymeristavi/status/1591099528736051205

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Roundup: The federal walkout in the face of the premiers’ games

The federal-provincial health ministers’ meeting broke down with federal ministers Jean-Yves Duclos and Carolyn Bennett walking out after a communiqué from the premiers was leaked, decrying a failure of the talks, drafted five days ago, indicating that there was no intent to listen to the federal government’s position on tying increased funding to accountability measures like outcomes and pan-Canadian data. Duclos said in his press scrum after walking out that just increasing the transfer to provinces is not a plan, which is one hundred percent correct, because we know that provinces have a demonstrated history of spending additional federal dollars on other things that are not healthcare. (Duclos’ statement here). The provincial spokes-minister, Adrian Dix, carried on with his disingenuous talking points about not being able to fix the system without more money, or demanding a first ministers’ meeting about this, the only purpose of which would be for the premiers to gang up on the prime minister for the cameras. Dix also painted this false picture of lamenting that the federal government couldn’t come together with them like they did over COVID, completely ignoring that the federal government sent billions of additional dollars to provinces for COVID and most of those provinces simply put that money directly onto their bottom lines to end their fiscal year with a surplus, which is not the point of sending money to them for healthcare.

Justin Trudeau, earlier in the day, was already calling the premiers out on this bullshit by pointing out that they are crying poor while they are offering tax breaks for their wealthier citizens, which is not a sign that their budgets are hurting for federal dollars. And this is exactly the point—premiers have largely decided to make this the federal government’s problem, because they can get away with this particular lie. Legacy media will continue to take the line that so long as a single federal dollar is involved, this becomes a federal responsibility, which is not how this works. The crumbling healthcare system is not the federal government’s problem. They have done nothing but increase funding year over year. The provinces have created this mess, and in all likelihood exacerbated it deliberately in order to force the federal government’s hand in giving them a lot more money with no strings attached, but the federal government isn’t blinking, and is finally starting to call bullshit. Let’s see if legacy media actually catches on (but I have serious doubts they will).

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 259:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he’s willing to negotiate peace—on his terms, and not Russia’s, but forestalled criticism Russia was levelling against him. Otherwise, there was more shelling in Bakhmut, and two civilians were seriously wounded by unexploded mines around Kharkiv.

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Roundup: Pretending the promise of money was new

Provincial health ministers met in Vancouver yesterday in advance of their federal counterpart joining them, and boy did the bullshit ever flow, particularly in their characterisation of what has transpired. The federal minister, Jean-Yves Duclos, put out a statement before the provincial minsters had a press conference that basically reiterated what the federal government has been saying for months now—that yes, they are willing to spend more money, but they want outcomes attached. What was different was specific language about common metrics for health data, cooperation on health workforces, and that the federal government was willing to also engaged in specially tailored one-off agreements with provinces on specific investments.

To hear BC’s health minister, Adrian Dix, tell the tale, the federal government has been “radio silent” for over a year, which is not true, or that this is the first time they’ve raised money issues, which is again, not true, and the message has been consistent. But some of his counterparts are already rejecting the federal strings, and insisting that this is some kind of centralization or micromanaging (it’s not). Dix also pretended that the progress he has made around some reforms in BC are being done elsewhere around the country (they’re not) as “proof” that the provinces are getting their acts together on healthcare, which is, again, not true, and nobody wants to call out the provinces for letting things get to a crisis through chronic underfunding, in large part because they spent federal dollars on other things, and because certain premiers appear to be wilfully breaking their systems in order to try and privatise as much as they can without penalty under the Canada Health Act. If the starting point for these negotiations is the truth, well, that appears to be in short supply, which could be a big problem for everyone going forward.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 258:

Ukrainian officials are accusing Russian forces of looting empty homes in Kherson after they ordered civilians out of the city (likely a forced deportation, which is a war crime) in advance of the Ukrainian advance on the city, and then the Russians cut the power to the city and blamed Ukrainian “sabotage.” The epicentre of the fighting remains Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the Donetsk region, where Ukrainians say that hundreds of Russians are being killed every day.

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Roundup: Don’t just rely on the federal government

While at a feel-good announcement yesterday about the enhanced GST rebates going out to Canadians, Justin Trudeau told reporters that he was weighing “all options” on what to do about Doug Ford’s pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding Clause, though federal options are extremely limited because it is a legitimate constitutional power under certain circumstances, and doing anything about that would require a constitutional amendment, which if Quebec or Ontario are not on board with, would be dead in the water. And disallowance is likely a Pandora’s box of federal-provincial warfare, which limits options.

Trudeau also said that Canadians themselves need to stand up to provinces using this power rather than waiting for the federal government to intervene (as the pre-emptive use pretty much rules out the courts becoming involved), because we shouldn’t underestimate the power of popular discontent—particularly for someone like Doug Ford, who doesn’t like it when people are mad at him. The powers are being invoked by populists who think they can get away with it by pandering to baser instincts, and of people put sustained pressure on those governments to let them know that no, using these powers are not okay, that could force them to back off, but that means actual sustained pressure, and not just the kinds of slactivism that we have become accustomed to. That is the kind of democratic power that still exists and holds sway, and we shouldn’t discount it.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 255:

Russian authorities in occupied Kherson continue to attempt to evacuate civilians from the city, moving them deeper into Russian-occupied territory, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warns that Russia could be laying a trap to ensnare Ukrainian forces into intense urban warfare. Zelenskyy also said that Ukrainian forces have been holding their positions around Bakhmut and Soledar in the Donetsk region, while Russians send more troops into the “meat grinder.”

https://twitter.com/AnitaAnandMP/status/1588684951381508097

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Roundup: The possible constitutional crisis Ford wrought

The fallout of Doug Ford’s pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding Clause to bigfoot labour rights carried on yesterday on a few different fronts. In Queen’s Park, the NDP’s interim leader and half of their caucus were ejected by the Speaker for calling Doug Ford a liar over his comments about the CUPE strike, and not retracting. And when one was ejected, another one did on their turn, and so on. This is becoming a problem in legislatures and the House of Commons federally, where it becomes difficult to call out blatant falsehoods because of the prohibitions from calling someone a liar, which has absolutely emboldened parties and elected officials in their respective legislatures at different times, but it’s really bad right now.

Federally, NDP MP Matthew Green tried to call for an emergency debate on this abuse of the power, but it was not deemed worthy, and I’m at a loss as to how it could be because this isn’t a federal matter, and there is nothing the federal government can legitimately do (and don’t say Disallowance, because that is a constitutional dead letter). Later in the day, Justin Trudeau had a call with Doug Ford to tell him that his pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding Clause was “wrong and inappropriate,” but I’m not sure what more he can do about that, other than try and encourage enough public sentiment against Ford. After all, he likes to be the fun uncle, and if enough people are mad at him, he will back down. The question is sustaining enough anger and ensuring it is widespread enough for Ford to blink.

https://twitter.com/AaronWherry/status/1587989392383148032

Meanwhile, Andrew Coyne argues that federal disallowance powers should be revived to stop provinces’ abusive pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding clause, and it’s a position I’m going to have to give more thought to, because in a limited way there could be an argument, but it would have to be very particular. I will also note that over Twitter, there has been some chatter that there wasn’t this disallowance talk with Quebec using the Notwithstanding Clause, which is wrong—it has been there, but it is usually met with the same reply, that it’s a constitutional dead letter, and you’re provoking a constitutional crisis. But the constant abuse may have provoked that very crisis, so it’s going to need some very careful consideration as to what next steps are, and what the unintended consequences may be.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 253:

Russia is re-joining the deal to export Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea days after it pulled out of the agreement, saying that their security concerns have been met. Ukraine has officially denied being involved in the attack on Russian ships over the weekend, but president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Russia seeking security guarantees from Ukraine is a sign of how badly its invasion has gone for them.

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Roundup: Internet troll and wide-eyed naïf

The occupation leaders started their turn to testify at the Emergencies Act committee yesterday, and it’s quite an interesting picture that they are painting of themselves. Chris Barber, for example, admits to being a racist internet troll who “saw the light” thanks to all of the love and hugs during the occupation (sure, Jan), but also tried to present himself as this wide-eyed naïf who couldn’t possibly understand the MOU about overthrowing the government, or who believed all the honking was just these truckers being excited. Yeah, so believable. There were, apparently, power struggles between the different groups and organisers, and things started to spiral out of their control. Gosh, you think? And when Barber was presented with an email with an assassination threat targeting Chrystia Freeland, he insisted he had no knowledge of this—because, you know, it was all peace and love. (Credit to Shannon Proudfoot for the troll/naïf descriptor).

Elsewhere, Doug Ford’s lawyers were at Federal Court to argue that the rule of law would be “irreparably harmed” if Ford and Sylvia Jones were forced to testify at the public inquiry or deal with any subsequent contempt proceedings, which…is a bit much. The judge in the case noted that the parliamentary privilege relates to criminal and civil courts, but does not specify public inquiries (because the basis of the privilege stems from a time when the Crown controlled the courts). Said judge also said he expects to have a decision by November 8th, which is two days before Ford and Jones are supposed to testify at the inquiry.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 252:

Russian authorities in occupied territories have ordered the evacuation of civilians in an area near Kherson, which the Ukrainian government considers a forced depopulation, which is a war crime. Russians also fired missiles into an apartment building in the port city of Mykolaiv, and have destroyed about 40 percent of the country’s energy infrastructure as winter approaches.

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Roundup: The drivers of food price inflation

The September inflation numbers were released yesterday morning, and they are still cooling, but not quite by as much as anticipated, in part because food price inflation continues to stay high. While the temptation to conclude that this is entirely the fault of the grocery oligopoly engaged in price gouging, and boy howdy are the NDP trying to make this a Thing, we know from the economic data that it’s not actually the case. And it doesn’t take too much digging to know what some of the drivers of this food price inflation really are:

  • For cereal and bakery products, that’s because the drought on the Prairies destroyed 40 percent of crop yields last year
  • The blight known as “coffee rust” is affecting those crops, and is in large part because of monoculture
  • Drought has also taken out things like the chilis necessary for things like sriracha sauce, or the mustard crops used in condiments
  • Fresh fruit and vegetables are, again, susceptible to droughts in places like California, or the hurricanes that struck Florida
  • Fish and seafood are facing collapsing stocks, which again, drives up prices, and some harvesting seasons have been impacted by hurricanes
  • Dairy and meat has seen higher input costs (again, drought taking out feed crops) and avian flu ravaging poultry flocks is also driving up prices

As you can see, climate change is a big driver for most of these. Our food production is very vulnerable to it, and that is causing a lot of these price increases, and we need to be aware of that and stop couching it euphemisms about “inclement weather” or the like.

Meanwhile, Chrystia Freeland has told her Cabinet colleagues that they need to keep their spending priorities in check, and if they want higher spending, they need to be prepared to find savings in their departments to pay for them. While we have seen that the government’s fiscal stance is already pretty tight, Freeland needs to manage expectations right now—if we do go into a recession, the government can’t keep up the same supports they did during the pandemic, and broad spending programmes could wind up fuelling inflation and undoing the work the Bank of Canada is doing to tame it. It’s unlikely to really blunt any of the attacks from the opposition, and Poilievre in particular because he’ll just make up more nonsense that sounds like economics but is just bullshit, and certain people will spoon it up and legacy media will both-sides it, but regardless, Freeland looks to be steering the Liberals back on a course toward the brand of fiscal prudence and away from trying to capture more of the left, but perhaps that’s because they have put a mark in that territory with things like childcare and know that there are voters at the centre that the Conservatives are abandoning that they would rather pick up instead. Either way, it’s an interesting move.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 238:

As Russians continue to bomb power stations around the country, Ukrainians are facing rolling blackouts. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called out the Iranians for accepting “blood money” for these drone.  Meanwhile, Putin has declared martial law in the four occupied territories in Ukraine, giving his Russian regional governors emergency powers to enact new restrictions.

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Roundup: Charles III’s first address

King Charles III made his first public address in his new role, and like his mother before him, pledged to serve for as long as he lives (sorry fantasists who think he’ll abdicate in favour of William). And this was addressed not only to the UK, but also to all of the realms where he is also King, and to the rest of the Commonwealth as well, even if he is not their head of state.

More of the ceremonial aspects of the transition takes place today, from the Accession Council in the UK, to the meeting of the Privy Council at Rideau Hall, where the Canadian Cabinet will make the accession declaration for the King of Canada.

https://twitter.com/Gray_Mackenzie/status/1568435618304098305

Meanwhile, I cannot get over the fact that Canadian media outlets cannot get the basic civics straight in the fact that Elizabeth II was the Queen of Canada, and Charles III is the King of Canada. The CBC in particular continues to treat the monarchy as a foreign curiosity rather than the very centre of our constitutional order. Occasionally they will cite that the Queen was Canada’s head of state, which is only true on a technicality, and outlets like The Canadian Press are making similar declarations. We’re a constitutional monarchy. I don’t know why this seems to be so difficult for mainstream media outlets to process and relay correctly. There should be no excuse for it, and yet when it matters, they are simply unable—or unwilling—to present the facts as they exist. It’s no wonder we’re in such trouble.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 198:

The Ukrainian counter-offensive continues to make slow and steady progress on various fronts, but that hasn’t stopped Russians from shelling cities like Bakhmut in the east, or Kharkiv in the north. Shelling also continues around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which continues to be on emergency power to run its cooling systems because repairs cannot be made to the power lines connecting it to the grid so long as the shelling continues. The International Atomic Energy Agency continues to call for a “safety zone” around the plant, but we know how well Russia abides by agreements.

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Roundup: Jockeying for first-place ballot support

We’re in day one-hundred-and-forty-eight of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces damaged a bridge that is critical to supplying Russian troops in southern Ukraine, where Russia is trying to consolidates its territorial gains, making it clear that their supposed aim of “liberating” the predominantly-speaking Donbas region was always a lie. Russians, meanwhile, bombarded the north-eastern city of Kharkiv, and killed more civilians there. On that note, here is a look at Ukrainian refugees being forcibly relocated into Russia.

Meanwhile, Russia has started up a sham tribunal to document “war crimes” from Ukrainians to justify the invasion, and they are using Westerners living in Russia, who are often promoters of conspiracy theories or who are known for being purveyors of disinformation, as their star witnesses. The whole thing is a thinly-veiled propaganda exercise to bolster support for the invasion in Russia, and to provide a counter narrative to the International Criminal Court proceedings against Russians who are involved in actual war crimes in Ukraine, but

Closer to home, the Conservative leadership race is reaching a critical juncture as ballots are being mailed out and candidates are asking for top billing on their ranked ballot. Jean Charest wants another debate, particularly now that Patrick Brown is out of the race, while Roman Baber is trying to make a plea for people to give him a second look and not simply rank him further down-ballot (though the policies he outlined simply remind everyone that yes, this guy is a moron). Speaking of, the National Post has compiled the various policy positions of the leaders, at which point I am force do once again remind everyone that this remains an abomination in our system—leaders are not supposed to be deciding policy and putting it forward in a leadership contest. That is supposed to be the job of the grassroots membership, who have biennial conventions to do just that, but we have so bastardised our system in order to create a faux-presidential primary that we’ve reached this debased state.

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Roundup: An “adult conversation” consisting solely of a demand for cash

It’s now day one-hundred-and-thirty-nine of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Russians have resumed pounding the city of Kharkiv, destroying civilian buildings. The Russian government is trying to fast-track giving Russian citizenship to all Ukrainians, an attempt to exert more influence over the country. Meanwhile, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is calling out Canada’s decision to return those gas turbines to Russia by way of Germany, saying that Russia will interpret this as a sign of weakness that Russia will try to exploit, and he’s not wrong, but one wonders if there may not be a greater danger in alienating Germany as they are already facing rationing. For what it’s worth, the US State Department is backing Canada’s decision, but this situation was very much a Kobayashi Maru.

Closer to home, the Council of the Federation got underway yesterday, and of course the opening salvos were about healthcare funding, without strings attached. BC Premier John Horgan, who is currently the chair of the Council, was dismissive about the federal government’s concerns, calling them “accounting differences,” when Dominic LeBlanc called them out for their misleading figures about the current transfers, and the fact that several provinces are crying poor while simultaneously bragging about surpluses that they paid for with federal pandemic dollars, of the fact that Quebec is sending vote-buying cheques out to people ahead of their election. And LeBlanc is absolutely right—there need to be strings to ensure that provinces won’t use that money to pad their bottom line, reduce their own spending, or lower taxes, because they’ve all done it in the past. The best part is that Horgan keeps saying he wants an “adult conversation,” but the only thing the premiers are bringing to the table is a demand for more money, and that’s it. That’s not an adult conversation. (For more, the National Post took a dive into the issue, and came out with a fairly decent piece that includes the actual history of transfers, tax points, and provinces who spent those health care transfers on other things).

There will be a few other things discussed, and there’s a primer here about them. Jason Kenney wants to spend the premiers meeting pushing back at the federal emissions reduction targets, because of course he does.

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