Roundup: The inflation and population figures

There were a couple of important figures released from StatsCan yesterday, and the first was the November inflation numbers. While some analysts were predicting it to fall, it held at 3.1% for a second month, showing that this is the part where it’s starting to get sticky, and why the Bank can’t let up measures and start reducing interest rates just yet. One of the upsides is that food price inflation continues to come down, which means that prices are stabilising, so that’s very good news (and it has nothing to do with carbon prices). And don’t forget to check out this thread from Trevor Tombe, as he digs into the numbers.

https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1737111583002923039

The other figures released were the population figures, and it was the fastest growth of any quarter since 1957. The thing to keep an eye on here is that a lot of this seems to be driven by non-permanent residents, whether international students (and the big problem there are a couple of colleges in Ontario turning themselves into abusive degree mills), and other temporary foreign workers, some of whom may have been hired in an abusive way. Some of this are also asylum seekers who have not yet received status (because “closing” Roxham Road didn’t really do much for this situation other than push it underground).

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1737106801617703236

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1737109349477310976

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1737112568286855177

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1737136794938884329

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russia launched an air attack on Kyiv for the fifth time this month, but this attack was intercepted and no damage was reported. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukraine is boosting its domestic production capacity and will produce one million drones next year. Zelenskyy is also dismissing talk that there is a rift between him and the head of the army. Here’s a look at the work judges are doing to keep the justice system going in a country under fire.

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Roundup: Opening the Canadian Drug Agency

There was an announcement yesterday that went under the radar of what appears to be every major news organization, which is that the Canadian Drug Agency is now fully operational. This has been in the works for a couple of years now, first as in a transitional form while the government consulted with the provinces and territories on what shape this would take, and it has now emerged from transition status into a full office.

Why is this important? Because this is the kind of actual policy work that is going to contribute to future national pharmacare in this country, not the ridiculous legislation that the NDP are insisting upon, under the mistaken belief that this is something that provinces can join one-by-one like with healthcare. It’s not—if national pharmacare is to work, it needs to be all or nothing, because it won’t be economically feasible otherwise. That means you need the premiers at the table from the start, and they all need to negotiate the national formulary together, not just let Ottawa decide and join up if they feel like it.

So, while Jagmeet Singh and Don Davies put on this dog and pony show about the pharmaracare legislation that hasn’t happened yet, and say boneheaded things like “The Liberals are on the side of Big Pharma,” the government has been putting in the actual work, and not the performative part, for what it’s worth.

Ukraine Dispatch:

A shortage of artillery shells is forcing Ukraine to scale back some operations, while the Russians are changing their tactics in their bid to overtake Avdiivka. Ukraine’s military chief is now saying that the war isn’t at a stalemate as he previously asserted (to which president Volodymyr Zelenskyy contradicted him). Said military chief found bugs in one of his offices, and hints that more devices have been found. He has also been critical of Zelenskyy’s decision to fire all regional military draft officers in a corruption crackdown.

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Roundup: Exploring a national emergency response agency

Something that caught my eye over the weekend was an interview that Harjit Sajjan had with The Canadian Press over the weekend about building up some kind of national emergency response agency, so that we don’t have to constantly rely on the military for each event as we have been. It would likely be a network of local and regional agencies, but have some kind of federal coordinating role, but we do have some models domestically to draw on, such as the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. The issue there is that it’s only geared toward one kind of event, whereas floods and hurricanes or tornadoes require different responses.

To that end, Sajjan is looking at different models and how different countries manage their agencies, so he’s not immediately jumping on an American FEMA model, but if there is one particular note of caution to sound it’s that we can’t rely on the premiers not ballsing this up or making ridiculous demands because none of them want to spend money on this kind of thing if they think they can get away with forcing the federal government to spend instead, while at the same time not willing to cede any jurisdictional sovereignty so that the federal government can actually do anything other than just give them money that they totally promise will be spent on this and not on tax cuts (really, we promise this time, for reals!)

There’s a reason we’ve come to rely on the military for this kind of work, which is that provinces don’t want to spend the money, and the federal government has so far refused to make provinces reimburse the Forces for doing the work (because they would be massacred in the headlines if they did), and provinces know that. It doesn’t help that the NDP think that this is really the only kind of thing that the military should be doing either. But something has to give, and let’s hope the federal government, of whichever stripe is in power if this gets off the ground, doesn’t simply roll over for the premiers’ usual nonsense on this.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russians launched a massive drone attack on early Sunday aimed at the southern and western Ukraine, while Ukraine launched a drone attack against a Russian airbase in Russia’s Rostov province. As Russia presses to try and capture Avdiivka, Associated Press has seen drone footage in the area that shows at least 150 bodies in Russian uniforms littering the treeline.

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Roundup: End of the parliamentary year 2023

With a flurry of more nonsense motions, another apology from Speaker Greg Fergus, and a few more hours of sterile speechifying, followed by a royal assent ceremony, Parliament—both chambers—has gone home for the holidays.

This has been one of the most toxic, rancorous sittings I’ve lived through in my fifteen years on the Hill full-time, and I’ve watched it devolve in realtime to something where the clip-gathering was more selective to it being every single interaction on camera, and because they want to boost the engagement on those clips, they torque things and are now outright lying about absolutely everything, and now the place is a toxic swamp. The incident with Anthony Rota’s ouster just made everything worse, because the partisan rancour around that dialled up to eleven, and there was an actual attempt by the Conservatives to let Rota to escape responsibility by trying to falsely pin the blame on Trudeau and making false insinuations about the PMO essentially running the Speaker’s office, which is both wrong and dangerous. And it just gets progressively worse, the more that Greg Fergus keeps doing things that get pounced upon (no matter that provincial parties are not federal ones, particularly in Quebec).

And because the Andrew Scheer vs Greg Fergus fight keeps getting dumber, the NDP want to summon Scheer to the ethics committee over the use of his office for a partisan video. Meanwhile, people keep digging up more instances of Scheer going to fundraisers when he was Speaker, and lo, they were fundraisers for his own party, not events for provincial parties, which are the accusations being levelled against Fergus. Which do we think is the actual partisan activity here?

Ukraine Dispatch:

There is a strange story out of Keretsky in western Ukraine, where a village council member showed up at a meeting and detonated three grenades, injuring 26 including the person responsible, whose motive is unclear. Ukraine has signed “dozens” of contracts for joint production or technology exchanges with Western defence firms. As the EU struggles to get aid to Ukraine in spite of Hungary blocking it, here’s a look at what Ukraine needs to do in order to continue on its course for membership.

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Roundup: Making excuses for the Ukraine votes

You will have seen in Question Period yesterday, and over social media last night, the Conservatives are starting to backtrack juts at tiny bit on Ukraine, but it all rings pretty hollow. In QP, the only tangible thing that Pierre Poilievre could point to their supporting Ukraine was that they called for lethal aid to be sent over before the invasion began (whereas the federal government held off until the invasion happened, and then suddenly started sending it). The rest were all non sequiturs that dated to the Harper era.

Later in the evening, Michael Chong listed a bunch of historical things Conservatives have done to support Ukraine, but concluded that they couldn’t support the free trade agreement because of carbon pricing. Yes, the same Michael Chong for whom carbon pricing was the centrepiece of his leadership campaign. It’s horseshit and Chong knows it, but he sold out his morals, ethics, and credibility long ago to curry favour with the party, and here we are.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The Wednesday missile attack on Kyiv has upped its casualty total to 53 injuries, including several children, but fortunately no deaths. Ukraine’s largest mobile carrier says they are restoring voice services after the Russian-linked cyberattack that crippled their operations.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1734886178149503279

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QP: Fighting over a mushroom farm

The prime minister was present today, while his deputy was off to the Senate to testify there on her bill. Most of the other leaders were present, but Jagmeet Singh was once again absent, as he has been for a couple of weeks now. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, worrying about household debt, and complained about supposedly inflationary deficits. Justin Trudeau produced a list of Quebec-related items that the Conservatives voted against last week. Poilievre complained that government spending hasn’t achieved results, and Trudeau continued listing things the Conservatives voted against. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question, and Trudeau took a swipe about Poilievre having a lack of vision and needing his glasses while pointing out they just cut. Poilievre gave an exaggerated complaint about the school food programme framework they voted against, and made a pitch for passing Bill C-234. Trudeau said that Poilievre wanted to let the world burn, which also meant that food sources would go with it. Poilievre raised the mushroom farm in his riding, and whether the prime minister reached out to the about their rising carbon prices, and Trudeau said that officials did reach out to that “very successful” farm and offered then advice on lowering their emissions.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and commended him for changing this vote at the UN, and wanted legislative changes to eliminate loopholes around hate speech laws. Trudeau gave some reassurances about fighting antisemitism and Islamophobia. Blanchet repeated his call for these changes, and Trudeau noted that this was a delicate situation because balancing freedom of speech and and religion.

Peter Julian rose for the NDP in French, and wondered where the “wartime effort” on housing was over the past eight years. Trudeau read a script about the pre-approved housing designs as a policy they are working on. Jenny Kwan demanded national rent control, which is provincial jurisdiction. Trudeau noted that this was something they were working on with provinces, but that they had a multi-faceted approach to tackle housing.

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Roundup: Fergus at the NDP’s mercy

It looks like Speaker Greg Fergus may last another day, as the word from the NDP is that they’re going to demand a fine and another apology to the House of Commons for his lapse in judgment over that video he recorded, though I have to wonder what they think a fine is going to accomplish. That report from the Procedure and House Affairs Committee will be tabled in the Commons by Thursday, so we’ll see if there’s any kind of vote or concurrence debate at that point. And there may yet be, as Andrew Scheer is promising that he’s going to move a vote of non-confidence in the Speaker, possibly in the hopes that he can shake enough NDP MPs loose to oust Fergus. As for the Bloc, Yves-François Blanchet said that perhaps it’s time for a woman in the position, as though Alexandra Mendès hasn’t been there as Assistant Deputy Speaker the whole time, and has twice now run for the position and not gotten enough votes for it.

On the subject of the Speaker, Carleton University’s Philippe Lagassé made some comments to the Hill Times about the fact that we do treat the neutrality of the Speaker in Canada as much more of an illusion than Westminster does. He also suggests we start adopting more Westminster practices like the Speaker running for re-election as an independent, and that past Speakers be appointed to the Lords/Senate where they can continue to serve in less partisan roles, rather than having them rejoin the party ranks (and absolutely not have them run for party leader, Andrew Scheer).

Ukraine Dispatch:

An overnight missile attack on Kyiv has resulted in 45 injuries, while nearly 600 shells and rockets rained down on the southern part of the country amidst a major cyberattack on the country’s largest telecom provider. A US intelligence report estimates that Russia has suffered 315,000 casualties, which is about 90 percent of the forces it began the conflict with. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington DC doesn’t appear to have swayed too many Republicans, while he continued to insist that asking to give Russia land concessions was insane because it meant abandoning families and children to terrorists.

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QP: Quoting Trump or Chamberlain?

The prime minister was present today, as was his deputy and most other leaders, save Jagmeet Singh. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and raised the “whistleblower” testimony around the STDC and his accusation that the minister lied about it. Justin Trudeau rose and spoke instead about the supposed $2 million price tag of the vote-a-thon about the things the Conservatives voted against. Poilievre switched to English to repeat the same question, and Trudeau repeated his same response, adding in a “Republican-style” epithet in there. Poilievre responded to the “stone age” quip with saying people were being forced to eat “stone soup,” before demanding the prime minister tell “his Senators” to vote for Bill C-234 (there are no Liberal senators). Trudeau kept reading a list of things the Conservatives voted against. Poilievre insisted that the government’s spending was all useless and didn’t do anything they promised but cause inflation, and Trudeau read some talking points about Putin’s war in Ukraine that was raising food prices, and said the Conservatives were plying into the Kremlin’s hands by voting against Ukraine. Poilievre insisted this was just a distraction and “spreading falsehoods about faraway lands” and demanded the government cut the carbon price. Trudeau listed yet more things the Conservatives voted against.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he raised jurisdictional questions around dental care, and said that this was just about throwing “sweets and candy” to the NDP. Trudeau said it was funny that he was talking about sweets and candy while he was trying to fix the teeth of people who can’t afford it. Blanchet insisted that the programme “harms Quebec,” and Trudeau reiterated his feel-good talking points about people getting the care they need.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP to demand the government demand a ceasefire in Gaza, and Trudeau insisted that their positions has been “responsible” about protecting civilians and establishing a two-state solution, and that they would continue to help Canadians see eye-to-eye.  Heather McPherson called the Canadian position “appalling,” and repeated the demand for a ceasefire in English. Trudeau reiterate his same points in English, and mentioned the statement he just put out with Australia and New Zealand, but didn’t mention the language of a “sustainable ceasefire” in the statement.

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Roundup: Pre-approved housing plans?

The federal government is planning to revive an old post-war CMHC programme to create a list of pre-approved housing designs as a way of speeding up the construction of new housing. The aim is to have these available for builders by the end of 2024, with various sizes and options available, in the hopes that it makes zoning and permitting decisions run smoother and faster.

One of the things this shows is that the government is listening to experts, who have been calling for this as a way for the federal government to use what levers they have to demonstrate leadership, and that’s a pretty good start. One would also have to wonder if this couldn’t also spur a movement to pre-manufacture components of these designs in order to make construction go even faster, particularly if there is an element of modularity to these designs. There does also need to be a recognition that these shouldn’t be limited to single-family dwellings, but to multi-family units including four-plexes, now that the rules around those are being relaxed in many municipalities as part of the Housing Accelerator Fund conditions, and rules around use of these designs could be conditions for future funds.

Meanwhile, check out this thread from Mike Moffatt on this particular policy move (which he was an early champion of), and we’ll see what elements the government announces as part of it later today.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1734354682837918043

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russia attacked Kyiv with eight ballistic missiles before dawn on Monday, which were all shot down but debris did injury people. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be in Washington today to try and convince Republicans to vote for the aid package as time runs out for Ukraine.

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QP: Crowing about dental care

While the prime minister was in town, he was not in QP today, though his deputy was present. None of the other leaders, aside from Pierre Poilievre, were either. Poilievre led off in French, and he spoke about the doubled cost of housing, and that rent has gone up in Montreal by 14 percent—which is strictly a provincial issue—and demanded the government follow his “common sense” plan. Karina Gould responded in English, quipping that it was nice to see Poilievre show up for work today rather than going to another fundraiser, and called last week’s vote-a-thon a right-wing Republican tactic. Poilievre then raised the report that food prices could increase by $700 next year for an average family, and blamed it on the Bloc for supporting the carbon price (because that makes sense). Diane Lebouthillier listed things that the Conservatives voted against last week, and asked if hurting vulnerable Canadians makes him feel stronger. Poilievre switched to English to declare that they were proud to vote against more “wasteful, inflationary spending,” and then repeated his worry about food bank use and said report on food price increases next year. Chrystia Freeland got up to decry that the Conservatives voted against Operation Unifier on Friday, which was unbelievable. Poilievre insisted this was “spreading fear and falsehoods about matters in other countries” to distract from their record, and this time, Sean Fraser listed more measures that they voted against on Friday. Poilievre doubled down on his insistence this was a distraction from the government doubling housing prices. Karina Gould pointed out that they voted against the new suicide prevention hotline, to much shouting on both sides.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he accused the government of incompetence and accused them of picking fights with Quebec around dental care. Mark Holland says this isn’t a matter of jurisdiction but a matter of healthcare (erm…), and said that this as a matter of health and prevention. Therrien said that Quebec already has a system that could have been improved with more money, and wondered why they created a system that was incompatible with Quebec’s. (Blame the NDP, guys!) Holland said this was about filling in the cracks and expects his same points.

Don Davies got up for the NDP to thunder about taking praise for the dental care programme, and Mark Holland gave some enthusiastic praise for it. Alexandre Boulerice read the French version of taking praised and Holland repeated his boasts in French.

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