Tag Archives: Iran

Roundup: The fiscal stance is tight

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The Parliamentary Budget Officer was doing his actual job of providing alternative fiscal forecasts for Parliamentarians, and his projection of the economic situation is that growth will slow over the second half of this year, which isn’t a bad thing because it will help to tackle inflation, particularly as the Bank of Canada continues to raise rates. The deficit continues to shrink, as does the federal debt-to-GDP ratio, which shows our fiscal stance is not too loose.

Here’s economist Kevin Milligan putting things into more context, but the bottom line is that the Conservatives’ assertion that government spending is fuelling inflation is not true, and they need to come up with some more credible talking points. (Yeah, yeah, good luck with that one, I know).

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1580598737906597894

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1580602979140632576

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1580605473476476929

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 232:

It was another day of Russian strikes against civilian targets, including by Iranian-built kamikaze drones, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues to request more air defence systems to protect the country. Ukrainian forces boasted that they took down four Russian helicopters in the space of eighteen minutes.

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Roundup: New sanctions on Iran, new enforcement resources

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Mid-afternoon, on the Friday before a long weekend, the prime minister and deputy prime minister hastily called a press conference and announced new sanctions against the Iranian regime—the top 50 percent of the IRGC will be permanently barred from Canada under powers in the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, which have thus-far only been applied to genocidaires from Bosnia and Rwanda. As well, more sanctions to other individuals have been announced, but even more importantly was the announcement of $76 million to establish a new sanctions bureau at Global Affairs so that we have the capacity to actually monitor and enforce these sanctions we’ve been applying.

Is this a declaration that the IRGC is a terrorist entity? No, because it would still be impossible to monitor and enforce, and would capture too many low-level conscripts. Will the Conservatives continue to yell and moan about it? Of course they will. There is some commentary that if applied properly, these measures could be more effective than listing them under the Criminal Code, but again, this depends on it being properly applied, and it will take time to build the capacity in the aforementioned sanctions bureau. It also bears noting that this all seems last-minute, reactive, and like this government doesn’t know how to get ahead of issues, so even if they do the right thing, it comes off as being pushed or shamed into it, which doesn’t help the narrative that this government is getting tired.

Danielle Smith

In the wake of her leadership victory, Alberta’s incoming premier Danielle Smith has agreed to run in a by-election for a seat of her own, and one of her MLAs is resigning to accommodate her (and had not planned to run again in the next election), and for Smith, it’s a mostly rural seat, because that’s her base. There is also a vacant seat in Calgary, but Smith would have a harder time there, and also plans not to hold that by-election in advance of next spring’s general election, which is indefensible under political norms. But hey, she’s willing to pretend the whole constitution is free to be ignored, so why should political norms matter? Yeah, this is a problem.

Meanwhile, here’s Jason Markusoff’s lengthy profile of Smith and her reinvention. Ken Boessenkool considers Smith to be a kamikaze mission into modern conservatism itself (and yet it’s almost like the bastardised way in which we now run leadership contests basically makes this an inevitability). Colby Cosh tries to put some context into Smith’s comeback and her outlasting all of her political rivals. Andrew Coyne sees storm clouds on the horizon with both François Legault and Danielle Smith looking to be constitutional vandals. My weekend column previews some of the absolute constitutional chaos, right up to the suspension of the rule of law, if Danielle Smith tries to get her own way.

https://twitter.com/cmathen/status/1578497923016699904

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 226:

There have been explosions in the Kharkiv region, as Russia concentrates attacks on the city while they are being driven back elsewhere in the country. More mass graves have been found in the Kharkiv region, on top of those already found at Izium and in Lyman.

https://twitter.com/TetySt/status/1578462615994368000

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QP: Trudeau attacks Poilievre’s incel connection

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The prime minister was present on a Thursday, which is rare, but I’ll take what I can get. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and worried about families who can’t afford Thanksgiving dinner this year, blaming carbon prices even though that’s not the driver of food price inflation. Justin Trudeau responded that they knew Canadians were struggling with the global inflation crisis, which is why the proposed measures like the GST rebate, and demanded support for rental supports and dental care for kids. They went another round of the same in English, and Poilievre listed increasing food prices, and insisted this was about the carbon price, and Trudeau tried to shame him about not supporting “kids’ smiles” before he launched into an attack on the news report that Poilievre had been tagging his YouTube videos to appeal to incels. Poilievre stated that he “condemns this organisation” (they’re not an organisation) and insisted that he condemns all misogyny and hit back about Jody Wilson-Raybould and Blackface, because of course he did. Trudeau pressed on about Poilievre appealing to incels, to which Poilievre again insisted that he corrected the problem and repeated the accusations about the prime minister. Trudeau noted that a lot of admiration was given for Poilievre’s videos during the leadership campaign, and he once again pushed on Poilievre playing too closely to extremists.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he demanded to know the prime minister’s intentions at Roxham Road, accusing him of increasing migrants in Quebec against their consent and of endangering French. Trudeau picked up a script to deliver some talking points about working with the French government around immigration and the protection of French. Blanchet denounced the policies that favour cheap labour (erm, you know the reliance of your province on temporary foreign workers), and demanded the unredacted contracts for Roxham Road facilities. Trudeau, extemporaneously, reminded him that Quebec already has all of the immigration powers they need and can increase francophone immigration if they want to.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and he listed grocery oligopoly CEO salaries before demanding the government stop the “greed-flation” of grocery chains. Trudeau listed the actions they have taken to help low-income people, and stated that they are strengthening the Competition Act. Peter Julian took over in English to repeat the question, and Trudeau repeated his same points.

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Roundup: Taking the blame, children’s cold medicine edition

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There has been a concerted effort to try and make the shortage of over-the-counter children’s cold and fever medication the federal government’s problem, even though they have precious few levers at their disposal. The Conservatives are trying to demand that Health Canada lift restrictions on imports that aren’t labelled in English and French, though I’m not sure that would really help if these shortages (which are due to high demand because COVID isn’t over!) are more widespread, and even there, that would require a lot of provincial coordination because pharmacies are also under provincial jurisdiction. But apparently the minister can’t just say that people need to talk to the provinces—that simply won’t do.

I had a bit of a debate over Twitter about this last night, and I will concede that part of this is a problem with the government’s inability to message and get ahead of these kinds of issues, or leverage some righteous anger and direct it to the provinces to do their gods damned jobs for once—but this government doesn’t like to do anger, and it really doesn’t like to blame the provinces for the things that the provinces aren’t doing when they should be, because they want to be “nice,” and “cooperative,” and “not divisive.” But that’s not helping anybody, and so we get more platitudes and feel-good pabulum that doesn’t actually make anyone feel good. I do have real problems with everyone—particularly media—trying to make every problem the federal government’s, but the government need to get better at messaging around this tendency, which they steadfastly refuse to do.

 

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 224:

As Russia’s president signed papers that purport to annex territory in Ukraine, Ukrainian forces continue to press ahead in their counter-offensive in both the east and the south, collapsing Russian lines even further. And those new troops Russia has been conscripting to send to Ukraine? Much of them come from the country’s ethnic minorities, which is a calculated move. Ukraine, meanwhile, is making a bid for the 2030 FIFA World Cup as a way of survivors of the invasion healing from the war.

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QP: Triple, triple, triple the bluster and the bromides

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The prime minister was present for the first time in a week, and it was nearly a full Chamber for a change. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he worried about stories of students accessing food banks, and blamed food price inflation on carbon prices, which is largely false, and demanded the “triple, triple, triple” carbon price be cancelled. Justin Trudeau responded with a warning about how serious climate change is, as we have seen up close. Poilievre switched to English to cite a farm family who was allegedly being crushed by carbon prices, and recited his “triple, triple, triple” line. Trudeau stated that clever slogans won’t help people, but his government had a plan to, and demanded support for the rental and dental supports. Poilievre reiterated his question, and Trudeau reminded him that he just returned from Atlantic Canada, and that these kinds of storms are going to become more frequent, before reciting the lines about not being free to pollute, and that most families get more back in rebates than they spend. Poilievre tried to turn this onto the prime minister using his “private jet” (it’s not a private jet) and that he was a “high-carbon hypocrite,” to which Trudeau lambasted Poilievre’s lack of a climate plan. Poilievre spun a ridiculous tale about the government driving food production out of the country, and Trudeau hit back that if Poilievre put as much energy into flighting climate change as he did spinning conspiracy theories, we would all be better off.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he demanded that all immigration powers be turned over to Quebec because French is under threat. Trudeau reminded him that Quebec has all the immigration tools they need, and if they want to increase Francophone immigration, they were welcome to. Blanchet repeated his demand, reminding Trudeau of the size of François Legault’s majority, and Trudeau repeated his answer.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and in French, he accused the government of protecting oil and gas profits, and Trudeau recited some pabulum about asking the rich to pay more to reduce taxes for the Middle Class™, which is why it was the very first thing they did. Singh repeated the question in English, and Trudeau stated that oil companies have been warned that they need to start paying for the green transition.

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Roundup: The “bigger picture” of continued hybrid sittings

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The Procedure and House Affairs committee is looking in to the future of hybrid sittings, and the Speaker wants them to consider the “bigger picture” of all of this. Of course, the bigger picture is that a) by trying to tie future use of hybrid to sickness or work-life balance, MPs will be creating an impossible attendance standard and create a monstrous culture of presenteeism; b) ministers will not only evade accountability not being in the House, and will be unavailable for MPs to see them during votes—which is the one time they are most available—and this is already happening as ministers are getting used to taking off when votes start and doing them from their phones in their cars, which is very bad; it also means that minister and MPs in general are less available to be found by the media; and c) the big one is of course the human toll that these sessions take on the interpretation staff. The NDP, as usual thinks you can just hire more interpreters, except there are no more interpreters to be hired. They literally cannot graduate enough of them to cover the existing attrition even before the injury and burnout rate from Zoom is factored in.

But MPs have consistently ignored the human toll, preferring their convenience, and whinging about long travel distances and having families, as though there aren’t options available to them that aren’t to most other Canadians. I will keep beating on this drum, because we won’t be able to maintain a fully bilingual parliament for much longer if this keeps up (we’re barely doing so as it is), and it’s probably going to take things absolutely falling apart for them to care, and that’s a problem.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 223:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukrainian forces have made rapid and powerful advances in both the east and south, and in places where Russian forces are retreating, they are abandoning posts so rapidly that they are leaving dead comrades behind.

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1577324136220839937

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QP: Triple, triple, triple the clip-gathering

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The prime minister was in Halifax to announce new support programmes for those who were affected by Hurricane Fiona, but his deputy was present. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he cited a faux report that half of Canadians are $200 away from insolvency, which is not actually true, and accused the government of raising taxes, returning his false “triple, triple, triple” the carbon price line. Chrystia Freeland praised their solution of the doubled GST rebate, and called on the opposition to support their other measures. There was another round of the exact same in English, and then Poilievre lamented high gas prices. Freeland again called on the rest of the House to support the rental support and dental care provisions. Poilievre pivoted to the downing of Flight PS752 1000 days ago, and insisted that it was legal for them to plan a similar plot, which is absurd and wrong. Marco Mendicino gave a pro forma condemnation of the downing before insisting that Canada is not a safe haven for terrorism. Poilievre disputed this, and demanded that the IRGC be listed a a terrorist group, to which Mendicino called on all members to stand with the families, and listed actions they have taken for those families.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he accused the government of changing EI rules for seasonal workers, to which Carla Qualtrough said that benefits continue to remain available as the pilot project has been extended to 2023, and broader reforms are coming. Therrien insisted that seasonal workers didn’t qualify, and Qualtrough reiterated her answer.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and in French, demanded that tax loopholes be closed for the “ultra rich” (because it’s just that simple, you see). Freeland reminded him that they have taken measures to ensure that the rich pay their fair share, particularly banks and insurance companies, and note their luxury tax. Singh repeated the question in English, and Peter Fragiskatos reminded him that $1 billion has been invested in combatting tax evasion, including audits related to the Panama Papers.

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Roundup: Independent thought alarm, Iran edition

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I hear the independent thought alarm sounding as Liberal MP Ali Ehsassi, who is Iranian-Canadian, is being critical of the government’s response when it comes to sanctions on the Iranian regime, and he wants them to do more. This being said, he has stressed that the minister, Mélanie Joly, has been very receptive to talking to him about the situation, and hearing his ideas, but that wasn’t of any interest to the CBC. No, they were interested in the narrative that even Liberal MPs aren’t happy with the government’s moves to date on sanctioning the Iranian regime, and lo, they put on an “expert” who says the government should do more, in spite of the fact that the don’t have the actual capacity to enforce more sanctions, let alone monitor the entire Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

I don’t expect the party to come down on Ehsassi for this, and the Liberals have demonstrated that they are willing to put up with a certain degree of independence from their MPs (more so than pretty much any other party right now), but I always find the reaction of the media interesting in situations like this, because as much as they claim they want more independence for MPs, when it gets demonstrated, they immediately start acting like this is either an attack on the government/prime minister, and they try to wedge it as much as possible to make it sound exciting. But all this really does is crack the whip without the party Whip ever needing to do a thing, because the media is enforcing discipline more than he ever could. Some members of the media should probably reflect on that fact

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 222:

Ukrainian forces have made a major breakthrough in the south, advancing along the Dnipro River and threatening Russian supply lines in the region. In the northeast, the liberation of Lyman is providing a staging ground to press into the Donbas region.

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QP: Triple, triple, triple the bad math

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Even though the prime minister was in town, he was not in Question Period today, though his deputy was. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, worrying that housing prices have doubled, and that bills take up 60 percent of an average paycheque, while the government’s solution is to “triple, triple, triple” the carbon price. Steven Guilbeault reminded him that the carbon price is the most effective in the world, and that emissions have been reduced by nine percent and the revenues go back to households. Poilievre switched to English to decry the carbon prices, misleadingly talking about missed targets and insinuating that it was tripling overnight when it’s over a decade, and misquoted the PBO about the cost to households, before repeating his “triple, triple, triple” line, to which Guilbeault reminded him that O’Toole stated that pricing mechanisms were the best way to go. Poilievre repeated his assertions, and Guilbeault needled the Conservatives for constantly flip-flopping on their position on carbon pricing. Poilievre insisted that the Liberals “attacked” a woman in rural Newfoundland and called her a “polluter” for heating her home, and Guilbeault pointed out their programme to help people transition off of home heating oil. Poilievre mocked the government programme to help people afford a “tax,” accused the government of putting people into energy poverty, and demanded the carbon price increase be cancelled. Chrystia Freeland responded this time, saying Canadians understand that climate change is real, and that the global economy is in the midst of a transition to a green economy, which is why the government is helping Canadians and industry make that transition.

René Villemure led for the Bloc, and he accused the government of secretly giving contracts to Liberal donors around Roxham Road, to which Helena Jaczek read in French that they negotiated fair market value and publicly releasing the details would release commercially sensitive information. Villemure insisted this was just the government sowing doubt other contracts, which were not proven to be in any wrongdoing. Jaczek repeated a version of her statement in English. 

Peter Julian rose for the NDP, and he demanded immediate EI for the Atlantic provinces in the wake of Hurricane Fiona, to which Carla Qualtrough says that Service Canada has waived the requirement for a record of employment. Alexandre Boulerice denounced Poilievre before repeating the same question on EI, and Qualtrough assured him that EI modernisation is on the way. 

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Roundup: Demanding LNG with someone else’s money

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While the federal Conservatives continue to promote the fantasy notion that Canada can somehow supply Europe and Japan with LNG to displace Russian supply—something that was never going to happen because of the timelines for projects to be built and that they need to be in operation to make their money back—under the notion that Ottawa needs to “get out of the way,” again ignoring that there has been no market case for it, Jason Kenney is going one step further and demanding that the federal government to build LNG export infrastructure. Which is odd because the Conservatives howled with outrage when the federal government nationalized the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline in order to sufficiently de-risk it for it to complete construction. If there’s no market case, why not get the federal government to do it?

But let’s also remember that the proposed Kitimat LNG facility on the West Coast, fully permitted and approved, is not being built, because there is no market case. Hence why Andrew Leach is calling out Kenney’s nonsense below, particularly the fact that Kenney is calling on the federal government to spend their money rather than Kenney spending his province’s own money. You know, like he did with Keystone XL, and whoops, lost billions because he made a bad bet and the American administration didn’t restore its permits. Funny that.

 

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 217:

UN human rights investigators have found that Russia has been violating international law when it comes to the treatment of prisoners of war during the invasion of Ukraine, which shouldn’t surprise anyone at this point. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also asked for Canadian help in ridding his country of mines left behind by Russian forces. Meanwhile, there are reports that Russian conscription officers are at borders trying to intercept would-be conscripts from fleeing the country.

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