Tag Archives: Iran

Roundup: A cover-up leads to an admission

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The day was largely spent fretting over the state of the investigation into downed flight PS752 – particularly given the news that Iranian officials had already bulldozed the site before international investigators could arrive, ensuring a cover-up was underway. The Ukrainian government was insisting to the Iranians that Canadians be involved, and we got word that a mere two visas had been issued for Canadian consular officials so far (though François-Philippe Champagne did say that he was expecting more to be approved soon). Champagne later announced the creation of an international working group, comprised of the countries whose citizens were all killed aboard the flight, to press Iran for answers, while in the back channels, there is talk that Canadian officials are telling the Americans that they should have been informed of their plans to kill the Iranian general, given that we’re coalition partners. Amidst all of this, mourning continued across the country. (The National Post compiles profiles of the victims here).

And then, something surprising happened – Iranian officials, including their president, admitted publicly that it was indeed one of their missiles that shot down the aircraft accidentally, and that it was human error that they plan to prosecute those responsible, as well as profound apologies and expressions of regret (while taking a swipe at American “adventurism” in the process). It was a marked change of tone after days of denial, insisting that it was “impossible” that they could have shot it down, and what looked to be a cover-up in the making. One suspects that this will have a profound shift in the narrative in the days ahead, and that Iran will be prepared to pay some kind of compensation, just as what happened in 1988 when the Americans admitted they accidentally shot down an Iranian airliner.

Meanwhile, Adnan R. Khan walks through how the accidental missile strike could have happened, while Colby Cosh offers more parallels and reminders to the 1988 incident of the Americans shooting down the Iranian plane then, how it is remembered differently in the West than it is in Iran, and how our amnesia to is affects the reactions – particularly from those who are howling about “murder” and demanding the prime minister be angry about it. As if to prove the point, Heather Scoffield demands some righteous indignation from Trudeau, and for some of that to be directed to Trump for what his recklessness has cost us – as though that would help the situation or not cause even more problems for Canada down the road.

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Roundup: A likely missile strike

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It was another day of shocking revelations as Justin Trudeau held another press conference yesterday to confirm that intelligence from many sources – including Canada’s own – gave a strong indication that it was indeed a missile that brought down flight 752 outside of Tehran, though it may not have been intentional. He struck a very somber tone, and continued to call for Canada’s participation in the investigation – while Iran’s spokespeople are denying that it was a missile, and so far only limited access is being offered to Canadians (though they are apparently approving the necessary visas for consular access). It’s also important to note that Trudeau specifically referenced Canadian intelligence sources, because it’s less likely (historically speaking) that it would be manipulated for political purposes, than if we simply relied on American intelligence.

Another term cropped up several times yesterday, which was the call for a “credible” investigation – another important consideration as it is likely that Iran may be trying to obfuscate and obscure part of the investigation in order to ensure that they can avoid the culpability for the incident, though we are hearing that lessons learned from crashes like MH17 over Ukraine has helped investigators learn more when one side (Russia, in that case) is not cooperative – and Trudeau did note that he reached out to the prime minister of the Netherlands to learn more about how they dealt with the crash of MH17, as they were the lead investigators there. Maclean’s has a bit more here about investigations and what it may look like.

Meanwhile, Andrew Coyne glumly notes that there is little that Canada can actually do it if is proved that Iran shot down the plane (presumably deliberately as opposed to accidentally), in particular because we have outsourced our defence to the Americans for so long. Likewise, Matt Gurney goes into more detail about just how limited Canada’s options are when it comes to responding to the worst-case situation.

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Roundup: Downed planes and disembarking royals

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The big news yesterday was obviously the crash of Flight PS752 outside of Tehran, with some 63 Canadians aboard (about half of those from Edmonton) – a large number owing to the limited travel options to go to Iran because of the loss of diplomatic relations with Canada, as well as US sanctions. Canada is hoping for a role in the investigation, but without any diplomatic relations or consular access, it limits our ability to do so (thanks to the belief of the Harper Conservatives that diplomacy is a cookie for good behaviour and not how countries communicate even when relations are strained). That lack of access will also make repatriating bodies more difficult, especially as Iran doesn’t recognize dual-citizens. In a press conference yesterday, Justin Trudeau would not categorically state that it was or was not a stray missile that brought the aircraft down – it’s still too early and the investigation has only just begun – but there is already talk that it may have been some kind of engine fire. Trudeau also mentioned his call with Donald Trump, but would not offer much in the way of specifics as to whether or not he agreed with the American plan to kill the Iranian general that touched off the attacks on Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, Justin Ling suggests that NATO take Trump’s suggestion and do more heavy-lifting in Iraq. Colby Cosh is reminded of when the Americans accidentally shot down an Iranian plane in 1988. Paul Wells notes how minimally this government seems to have acted in this crisis – and the weeks post-election – and suggests it’s time they get back to work.

Prince Harry and Megan

The other big news, in a day full of news, was the announcement that Prince Harry and Megan, Duchess of Sussex, plan to step down as “senior royals” and split their time with “North America” (which most are reading as Canada) and the UK, and focus more on certain patronages and charitable endeavours while looking to be more financially independent from the royal family (even though that could mean independent from the Sovereign Grant while still getting funded by the Duchy of Cornwall). And then Buckingham Palace said that this was “early days” and they were still discussing things – because it’s going to be a lot of details to work out.

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It has been noted that if Harry in particular wants to go through the Canadian citizenship process, he may have some difficulty given that he doesn’t have a university degree, so that could limit his points – even if they do have connections to Canada. My own half-joking suggestion is that we could set them up in Rideau Hall, because it’s not like anyone is living there currently.

https://twitter.com/PhilippeLagasse/status/1214998671420469249

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Roundup: SNC-Lavalin gets a plea bargain

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In an unexpected development yesterday, we learned that SNC-Lavalin took a plea deal from the courts – that one of their divisions would plead guilty for fraud over $5000 in connection to their dubious activities in Libya, pay a fairly hefty $280 million fine over five years, and all of the rest of the charges they were facing were withdrawn, and they wouldn’t face debarment from future contract work for governments. In other words, they largely got what they wanted with the Deferred Prosecution Agreement/Remediation Agreement that they had been agitating and lobbying for, and which spun off the whole Double-Hyphen Affair in the first place.

Could of things – first of all, DPAs are not “get out of jail free” cards like they have often been described as. Had SNC-Lavalin been granted the DPA, they would have had to agreed that they committed wrongdoing, paid a fine which would have included remediation for the wronged parties, and would have a structured monitoring regime put into place to ensure better governance going forward, and it wouldn’t have protected any of their executives from future prosecution. One particular law professor, Jennifer Quaid, noted that even though they weren’t a good candidate for a DPA, it would have actually been more transparent than the plea bargain that they wound up with, there is no guarantee of remediation to wronged parties, and it’s unlikely there will be the same structure imposed, so maybe, just maybe, the DPA was the better plan in the first place.

Jody Wilson-Raybould tweeted out in response that the system worked, while Justin Trudeau said in an interview that he may have acted differently had he known this would have been the outcome, but he was trying to do the best he could at the time. And there are certain people screaming about prosecutorial independence, but I keep going back to the conversation that Wilson-Raybould taped with Michael Wernick, and so much of it was them talking past one another – him looking for an explanation and her not providing one until the end of the conversation when she said that she gave a report to PMO months prior, to which Wernick said “That’s news to me.” This key exchange was completely glossed over in most of the reporting because they fell instead for the juicy quotes that Wilson-Raybould had set up in conducting the conversation the way she did. So much of the communications and relationship breakdown is on full display in that call. (That being said, I remain deeply troubled with how much SNC-Lavalin was stage-managing the legislative process around the DPAs, even if lawyers in the field had been demanding that legislation for a decade because we were behind our comparable Western allies in making these kinds of arrangements available).

Meanwhile, certain journalists want to insist that this doesn’t mean that the story is over because parliamentary committees. Erm, except they would need the support of the Bloc to push forward with them, and they have explicitly stated that they have no interest in doing so. (Also, I am a bit concerned that Elizabeth May was conspiracy theorizing over Twitter regarding who this plea deal is “protecting.”)

On a related note, Wilson-Raybould was chosen by The Canadian Press as their Newsmaker of the Year, and make news she certainly did (and still does).

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QP: All about aluminium

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On the first Wednesday of the new parliament, the prime minister was present and we were due to be treated to the first proto-“Prime Ministers Questions” of the 43rd Parliament. Andrew Scheer led off, and he demanded to know what new concessions the government agreed to with the New NAFTA, to which Justin Trudeau assured him that they got a good deal, particularly around aluminium and automotive rules of origin. Scheer rhymed off that “senior Democrats” said that the Canadians gave up everything asked of them, and Trudeau simply responded with some congratulations to the negotiators on getting a good deal. Scheer then demanded a new fiscal update this week which includes a path to balance, citing a fictional “high-tax, high-regulation” agenda, to which Trudeau recited his worn points about making the choice to invest in Canadians. Scheer then railed that Trudeau was creating a “made in Canada recession” — which was 100 percent pure and unadulterated bullshit — and Trudeau reiterated their choices to invest. Scheer then demanded the government pull out of the Asian Infrastructure Bank as a way to send a message to China, to which Trudeau warned that he hoped the new special committee on China wouldn’t be a vehicle for the opposition to play politics and endanger Canadians. Yves-François Blanchet decried the lack of aluminium protections in the New NAFTA, to which Trudeau started frankly that Blanchet was wrong, and they got guarantees around the use of aluminium in the automotive industry. Blanchet disputed this, and Trudeau repeated his assurances. Jagmeet Singh then took his turn to lament the New NAFTA, to which Trudeau picked up a list to read off improvements. Singh then demanded an immediate universal pharmacare programme, to which Trudeau insisted that they did more than any government in a generation to lower drug prices, and the next step was to sit down with the provinces.

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Roundup: Misleading his recruits

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After some confusion in the Conservative ranks, Andrew Scheer’s Quebec lieutenant, Alain Rayes, is apologising for misleading candidates in the province when he insisted to them that the party considered abortion a settled matter and that they wouldn’t allow any attempt to change the laws. Not so – Scheer’s actual pledge is that the government – meaning Cabinet – would not bring forward any bills, but the backbenches are free to do so, which is why anti-abortion groups have been busy trying to get their supporters nominated as candidates. And now the party and Rayes are saying that he just misheard Scheer’s pledge, which could put some of those Quebec candidates that Rayes recruited in a sticky position because some of them are saying that they decided to run for the Conservatives because they were assured that they weren’t going to touch abortion. Oops.

And this dichotomy of a hypothetical Conservative Cabinet pledges versus its backbenchers is one of those cute ways that Scheer can try to mollify the Canadian public while at the same time assuring his social conservative base that yes, he’s still the party for them, and he’s going to ensure that they have space to put forward legislation. From there, depending on whether or not they have a majority government and if so, how large it is, it comes down to counting votes to see if these kinds of bills have a chance of making it – and the current move in anti-abortion circles is to use backdoor attempts at criminalization through means like trying to create jurisprudence by means of laws that give a foetus personhood status through bills that treat them as such when a pregnant woman is murdered, for example, which they then plan to slowly extend to abortion services. It’s a long-term plan, but one that begins with getting enough anti-abortion candidates nominated and elected, so even though Scheer says his Cabinet won’t introduce these bills, as private members’ bills, they are unlikely to be whipped, and that leaves him to free his caucus to “vote their conscience.”

Of course, if he’s planning to be like Stephen Harper and assert pressure to ensure that these kinds of bills don’t make it through, then his courting of the anti-abortion community is hollow, and he’s lying to them, which will also be something that his base will have to contend with. But the clarification that only a hypothetical Cabinet wouldn’t introduce any anti-abortion measures is too cute by half, and relies on the fact that not enough people appreciate the difference between Cabinet and the backbenches, and why that distinction matters.

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Roundup: Intelligence and context

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There was a lot of flurry yesterday about supposed revelations made in Federal Court that CSIS has been spying on peaceful environmental groups. Except, people who used to be at CSIS, will tell you that’s exactly not the case. And the reporting on this hasn’t exactly helped either because it’s in a very defined frame with tropes that somewhat credulously take what these groups are saying and putting it with the redacted documents and drawing conclusions, that again, people who used to work there, will dispute, and those voices aren’t in the reporting. So here’s Stephanie Carvin and Jessica Davis, both of who used to work at CSIS, offering some proper context for what those documents say.

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QP: Impugning the RCMP and public prosecutor

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On a gloomy Thursday, neither Justin Trudeau nor Andrew Scheer were present for the proceedings. Mark Strahl led off, raising the end of the Mark Norman trial, alleging interference by the government, to which Bill Blair assured him that the RCMP and the Public Prosecution Service are independent of government. Strahl railed about the documents that were allegedly withheld in the process, and Blair took umbrage with his characterisation of the RCMP. Strahl amped his rhetoric and his volume, to which Blair asserted that none of that was true, and he reiterated the independence of the process. Alain Rayes picked up on that in French, with some added allegations that the government was apparently trying to “destroy” Davie shipyard (no, seriously), and Blair asserted that people deserved better than slander and innuendo. Rayes trie again, and got Blair reading that all obligations were followed for document disclosure. Jagmeet Singh was up next for the NDP, and he demanded the government adopt his plan to build half a million new homes, to which Jean-Yves Duclos thanked him for the opportunity to talk about the government’s national housing strategy. Singh asked again in French, and Duclos repeated his response. Singh then pivoted to the Norman trial, and demanded an independent investigation into what happened, and Blair repeated that he found it offensive that someone would rise and impugn the conduct of the RCMP of the Public Prosecution Service. Singh repeated the question in English, and got the same answer.

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Senate QP: Some of Goodale’s Regina Monologues

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While his planned appearance had been postponed a few weeks earlier due to “unforeseen circumstances,” Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale was in the Senate for Question Period, which curiously interrupted a vote bell, as the rules of the Senate allow. Senator Plett led off, asking about the gun control bill and the amendments that the committee is debating, asking if he would “instruct” the Independent senators to kill the amendments of not, to which Goodale quipped that he would never presume to tell senators what to do. When Plett tried to press as to whether the government would entertain amendments, Goodale gave a paean about the need for debate and votes.

Linda Frum raised the House of Commons voting to list the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization, and eleven months later, they had not been. Goodale reminded her that there is a detailed process under law that was being followed, and noted that some of their subsidies had already been listed.

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QP: The Auditor General’s report on the IRB gets play

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While Andrew Scheer was off in Montreal to give a foreign policy speech, Justin Trudeau was present — as was a beaming Elizabeth May. Lisa Raitt led off, asking about the planned loss of jobs for people with developmental disabilities at Library and Archives, and Trudeau read a script about the Accessibility Act, and at the end, Trudeau noted that the contract was extended. Raitt then moved onto the Auditor General’s report on the backlog in the immigration system, and Trudeau responded that the system had been broken the previous government and that his government had invested in it, cleared the legacy backlog, and were transforming the system. Raitt called the Roxham Road irregular border crossing an “express entry” system, and Trudeau called out her fear-mongering before noting that migration was up across the world and Canada is committed to a fair process. Pierre Paul-Hus repeated Raitt’s question in French, and Trudeau read the French version of his first response. Paul-Hus went with the angry follow-up, calling the system “broken,” and Trudeau repeated that in the face of fear and division, Canada was doing what it could. Jagmeet Singh was up next for the NDP, and in raising the recent report on the loss of biodiversity, he demanded the NDP’s environmental bill of rights be adopted. Trudeau stated that while the NDP were all talk, his government was taking action. Singh repeated the question in French, and Trudeau repeated his response. Singh then read about a catastrophic drug case in Ontario, demanding immediate action on pharmacare, and Trudeau read about the planned Canada Drug Agency in the budget. Singh repeated the question in English, and got a same response from Trudeau in English.

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