Roundup: Positive feelings about a useless meeting

We seem to be caught in a pattern where Donald Trump will invite a world leader to the White House—yesterday it was NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte—and he goes on an unhinged rant while they’re sitting there, trying to avoid saying anything that will set him off. And yesterday’s rant included a full-on threat to annex Greenland (while Rutte tried to downplay NATO’s involvement in any way, which is true to the extent that it only operates by consensus), and went on an extended rant about Canada not working as a real country, and made up the lie that America pays for our military (not true in the slightest), before repeating the falsehood that the US subsidizes us.

Meanwhile, Dominic LeBlanc and François-Philippe Champagne had their meeting with Howard Lutnick, with Doug Ford along for the ride as he continued to try and make himself the main character (and I watched Conservative talking head pundits also putting forward this distorted view of reality). Ford came out of the meeting, effusive about how “positive” it was and how they were going to have more meetings next week (and was later corrected that officials were going to meet, not him), while the two ministers basically talked a lot and said nothing, because nothing could be accomplished here. But they had to pretend that something came from this meeting when obviously nothing did, as there were no changes to any tariffs, and Ford’s pressure tactic around the electricity “surcharge” remains off the table again.

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lkc6vantcc2f

Elsewhere, Trump’s pick for US ambassador to Canada had his Senate confirmation hearing, and when asked, he said that Canada is a sovereign country, and tried to claim that Trump’s expansionist rhetoric is about “negotiation tactics,” but it certainly doesn’t seem to be. And yeah, he said the bare minimum to ensure that he wasn’t PNGed before he could even arrive in the country. Closer to home, Scott Moe continues to call for capitulation to China regarding their tariff fight, because of course he did, and claimed it was about protecting Quebec’s industries over Saskatchewan’s, except Quebec doesn’t really have much of an auto sector, but Moe’s brain is pretty smooth, after all.

Ukraine Dispatch

An overnight attack on Dnipro injured three women and damaged apartment buildings. Ukrainian forces are in retreat in parts of Kursk region, which means losing a bargaining chip in possible peace negotiations. And Putin has all kinds of conditions on a possible ceasefire, because he’s not serious, and Ukraine only went along with the plan to call his bluff.

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Roundup: “Identity politics” on both sides

As the facile analysis of the Trump victory continues across the political talk shows, there was one particular exchange on Power & Politics last night that I felt deserves a bit more attention, because I think it’s important to call bullshit on, which is the discourse around “identity politics.” There has been a lot written about, particularly over the past two days, about how the left has been too scoldy about said “identity politics” and pronouns, and it caused the public to turn against it, which is both ridiculous given the broad-based rage-and-resentment campaign underway, but it also excuses the very identity politics that the Trump campaign (and the current far-right) play into themselves, particularly with race.

Nevertheless, after this diatribe about identity politics, columnist Emilie Nicolas, who was on that panel, objected and pointed in particular to what is happening right now with young men, who are being raised on a diet of Andrew Tate podcasts and their similar ilk, along with some allusions to the gamer-to-fascism pipeline, who are being taught an absolute load of horseshit about alpha men, male dominance, and rank misogyny. And Nicolas pointed out that this is identity politics, and to insist that it’s only coming from the “left” makes this particular kind of identity politics invisible when that’s exactly what it is.

Trying to dismiss anti-racism, anti-misogyny and anti-homophobia/transphobia as “identity politics” that the general population doesn’t care about (as though the general population consists entirely of white men), while racism, misogyny, and white supremacy are given a free pass and not being called “identity politics” when in fact that is at the core of what they are, is actually kind of damning to those who think the “left” needs to cool it. I do get that the whole “scolding” aspect is something that does need to be re-thought as a tactic, but to pretend that “identity politics” is the domain of the left alone is both wrong, and intellectually dishonest in the extreme.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian guided bomb attack hit Zaporizhzhia, killing four, wounding at least 33, destroyed houses and damaged an oncology centre. Energy facilities in the northern Zhytomyr region also suffered damage in a drone attack. President Zelenskyy told a European summit that “peace through strength” is what is needed (which is in part what he is hoping to flatter Trump with), and also said that North Korean forces have suffered casualties when fighting Ukrainian forces in Kursk.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1854554730325787106

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Roundup: Preparing for the backbench rebellion

In advance of Liberal caucus tomorrow, media is rife with attempts to figure out just how many MPs will be pushing for Trudeau to go, and it sounds like between twenty to forty, but nobody knows anything for sure, and much like the past two caucus retreats where the backbenchers were restive, it could all fizzle out by the end, because Trudeau apparently has some kind of magic he can weave when he’s in the room. This could also just be a means of applying pressure to force the PMO to start showing that they are committed to a change of direction or just showing that they are capable of change, but so far Trudeau’s response has been to double-down and stare down his naysayers, but you have to admit, that even twenty backbenchers being ready to push you out is a bad sign, and forty is an indication that you’re not able to read the room.

This of course has led to future leadership speculation, and jumping right into things was former BC Liberal premier Christy Clark, who says she’s taking French classes, but I find this whole thing a bit of a laughable charade. While I know of several federal Liberals who will vouch for her Liberal-status, she also previously mused about running for the leadership of the Conservatives save for her lack of French skills, and was also organizing with the “Centre Ice conservatives,” now the upstart wannabe party that Dominic Cardy is leading. On top of that, Clark’s record as premier is pretty problematic, so I would have some very big questions about just what kind of reception she thinks she’s going to get outside of the few Liberal insiders who knew her ack in the day.

And then there’s Mark Carney, who told Nathaniel Erskine-Smith on his podcast over the weekend that he’s planning to run for a seat at some point, but won’t say where and when, and is vague about a lot of it other than saying that this is because he owes Canada “a lot.” Of course, none of this changes the fact that as a former central bank governor, he should stay the hell out of electoral politics for the rest of his life, because of what it does to his successors and the institution. Central banks need to be scrupulously politically neutral because what they say needs to be believed if they are to control inflation.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian attacks killed three people in Zaporizhzhia, and three in the Donetsk region. A Ukrainian drone attack damaged two distilleries in Russia, just south of Moscow. And this is what is known so far about North Korean troops joining the Russian invasion.

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Roundup: Singh’s unfinished business

As you probably saw, the big news yesterday was Jagmeet Singh melodramatically ripping up the supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals—well, except he didn’t really, but he posted a social media video and hid from reporters the whole day, and locked down all of their MPs from speaking…but then put up the party president, who didn’t know what she was talking about, and basically humiliated herself on national television, so that was…something. I’ve already expounded upon the events in a column here, but I will reiterate that the procedural warfare we’re about to see is going to be absolutely ridiculous, and Singh not only doesn’t understand jurisdiction, but also how Parliament works. He’s doomed the very things he claims to care about for the sake of hollow performance.

https://twitter.com/journo_dale/status/1831387238279819412

Here’s a look at what was accomplished from the agreements in the deal and what wasn’t. Pharmacare hasn’t crossed the finish line, so I’m not sure why both the Liberal and NDP are talking like it has (especially because no province has signed on yet). There was also an unfinished commitment to a safe long-term care legislation, which has only completed consultations, but again, this is pretty much entirely within provincial jurisdiction, so I’m not sure how meaningful any federal legislation is going to really be on it. As well, the Elections Act changes promised in the agreement are still being debated. More than anything, the fact that the NDP pulled out of the deal nearly a year early when the Liberals were living up to their side of it looks an awful lot like Singh and the NDP are operating in bad faith, and it doesn’t speak highly for anyone trusting them in any future agreements.

In pundit reaction, Althia Raj defends Singh’s actions, saying it was necessary for the NDP to rebrand themselves as change candidates in the next election. The legendary Don Newman points out that Singh traded policy wins for political power, and that this move will actually cement Trudeau’s leadership since it will be deemed too risky to hold a leadership contest now. Paul Wells notes that Trudeau’s tactic appears to be just staying the course and saying or doing nothing as everything happens around him, so we’ll see how that works for him as the fall rolls along. And as always, the Beaverton got it right.

Ukraine Dispatch

The overnight missile and drone attack Wednesday killed four people in Lviv, while more energy facilities were targeted in nine regions. Here is a lengthy piece about the first F-16 pilot killed in the war. Ukraine’s foreign minister has also resigned in advance of an expected government shake-up.

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Roundup: Qwhite the the stock footage mistake

The Conservatives released a video over social media over the weekend, where they took what appears to be a canned speech that Pierre Poilievre gave during Calgary Stampede, and added a bunch of stock footage to it. But, well, when you’re talking about how much you love Canada in your speech, it’s probably best not to use stock footage from places like the US, Serbia, Slovenia, Ukraine, and even more importantly, when you’re praising the new fighter jets that Canadian pilots will be flying, it’s probably best not to use footage of Russian fighters.

https://twitter.com/disorderedyyc/status/1825265002674287077

The video was eventually deleted, but it was also observed that it’s funny that in this stock-footage ideal that Poilievre was using, just how very white the Canada he presented was. For a party that keeps trying to make inroads with particular ethno-cultural communities in the suburbs of major cities, that might be a problem. And while I’m sure it wasn’t a conscious decision on the part of whichever of their social media geniuses that edited the piece together, it does say volumes about the kinds of people they attract to the party, and what it says about the vision of Canada that they’re looking for from the Conservatives.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched its third ballistic missile attack against Kyiv this month, but it appears they were shot down on approach. While Ukraine shot down 14 Russian drones overnight Saturday, a missile attack on Sumy injured two people. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is back to saying that the Kursk operation is about creating a buffer zone (which is currently taking out bridges that will slow Russia’s ability to bring supplies to the region), and that all of the Russian soldiers being taken prisoner will be used to exchange for more Ukrainian POWs.

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QP: Crowing about the release of a “secret report” that was not secret or a report

With the prime minister was off at the G7 summit in Italy, and his deputy off in Montreal, most of the other leaders didn’t bother to show up either. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, claiming that the “economic vandalism” and “carbon tax cover-up” have been exposed thanks to his party’s valiant efforts, and that the government finally revealed the data set about the cost impacts of carbon pricing beyond the retail price, and lo, it takes $30 billion out of the economy (which isn’t actually true—the figures only track one particular measure and not the other costs or offsets on the economy), and how the government attacked the PBO to hide the information (again, completely not true). Steven Guilbeault said that they have already established that math is Poilievre’s strong suit, that he can’t count above six, and that the data prove that eight out of ten households get more back, and that 25 million tonnes of GHG reductions are because of the carbon price. Poilievre accused the government of trying to hide the data (not true), raised the cost to Quebeckers, took a swipe at the Bloc, and accused the government again of attacking the reputation of the PBO for telling the truth (which isn’t what happened). Guilbeault reminded him that the carbon levy doesn’t apply in Quebec, and that he can turn to his own MPs who voted for the province’s carbon pricing system when she was in the Charest Cabinet. Poilievre switched to English to repeat the claim that the previous “hidden report” (which is not a report) costs the economy $30 billions and considered it economic vandalism. Guilbeault insisted that this is misreading the data, that most households get more back, and that the carbon pricing is responsible for half of emissions reductions. Poilievre repeated his defence of the PBO, to which Guilbeault repeated his same response. Poilievre again mischaracterised the data, and demanded that Guilbeault resign, and this time Jonathan Wilkinson got up to point to the 300 economists who explained how carbon pricing works, and that there is a cost of inaction on climate change.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc and complained about the Governor General’s budget, and demanded the medal programme be cancelled. Pascale St-Onge gave a tepid defence of the medals and the monarchy. Therrien complained that the same estimate vote contains funds for Indigenous clean drinking water initiatives and demanded the money on the medals be spent elsewhere. St-Onge pointed out that they have constituents who are interested in the medals who should be respected.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and railed about the proposed “third link” project in Quebec City, and demanded that no federal money go toward it. Pablo Rodriguez said that he should direct his ire to the provincial government. Lori Idlout decried the Indigenous infrastructure gap, and Patty Hajdu agreed that the record has been poor, and that the current government has been moving on those priorities.

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Roundup: Saskatchewan Speaker’s bombshells

Things took a dramatic turn in the Saskatchewan legislature as the Speaker, Randy Weekes, has had enough of his own party and government. On Wednesday night, he tweeted a photo of his party membership card being cut up, with the phrase “enough is enough.” And then on the last sitting day of the session, in advance of an election this autumn (so likely his last day on the job), he stood up and read out the harassing texts messages he received, instances where government staffers accosted him outside of the Chamber, and his concerns about the Government House Leader of bringing guns into the legislature, and how he wanted to carry a hand gun.

Some of this speaks to a pattern—Weekes pointed to his predecessors who were also subject to harassing text messages or directions from the Government House Leader, and some left the job as a result. Part of this pattern is also because, frankly, the government is long in the tooth, and has become arrogant and complacent, believing themselves to be on the cusp of becoming an Alberta-esque one-party state. A lot of Scott Moe’s actions belie such a belief, particularly as they have started targeting minorities (like trans youth) for political gain with no actual policy reason for doing so. It’s just in-group identification with the increasingly far-right voices in the so-called “conservative movement” (which is frankly, no longer really conservative), especially as it bubbles up from the US, but also takes inspiration from places like Eastern Europe (and there has been a lot of cross-pollination between the American right and places like Hungary in recent years). And that the Saskatchewan Party is willing to violate parliamentary norms like this is part of that same playbook.

Naturally, Scott Moe scoffed at Weekes’ speech, calling it sour grapes because Weekes lost his nomination battle a few months ago, but it also means that Weekes had nothing to lose, which in a way makes him dangerous to someone like Moe, because he can start dropping truth-bombs with no fear of reprisal (like not having his nomination papers signed). One hopes that this will wake a few people up as to the rot within the government, but we’ll see how it plays out over the coming months in advance of the election.

Programming Note: I am going to take the full long weekend off, because we’re heading into the final stretch in the House of Commons, and I need the break. See you Tuesday.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian artillery crews near the front lines say they are facing more Russian drone attacks than ever before. Ukrainian forces say that they have halted Russia’s advance in the town of Vovchansk, but Russia says they intend to keep pushing forward to Kharkiv. NATO’s top commander says he doesn’t believe Russia has enough troops to make a strategic breakthrough. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Kharkiv, to boost morale in the region.

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Roundup: Aborted merger talks?

I will be the first to admit that I don’t follow BC politics too closely, but I cannot help by roll my eyes at some of the narratives starting to leak out across the border around a supposed attempt to “unite the right” in that province. It sounds like it’s all talk, as the rumours that a particular mayor is being touted as a possible candidate lead a merged party, but the leader of the BC Conservative Party is throwing cold water over the whole thing, not unexpectedly.

As a quick refresher, the province used to have a single centre-right party, the BC Liberals, which was not the same as the federal Liberals, but a merger between the “free enterprise” Liberal and Conservative parties in the province to counter the NDP, and that was successful for a number of years, but they were insufficiently conservative for some, especially because they were relatively socially progressive and were environmentally conscious—they were the first jurisdiction in the country to bring in a carbon tax (and it’s an actual tax that largely offsets income taxes). And so the BC Conservatives were born, and the BC Liberals changed their name to BC United (sounding like a European football team), and they have largely tanked since.

This talk of mergers is usually what starts to happen when people start huffing poll numbers (hello the recurring “Why don’t the federal Liberals and NDP merge?” bullshit), but who don’t think about anything underlying, such as policies, beliefs, or underlying culture, because that stuff does matter. A lot. Case in point was Alberta, where Jason Kenney decided to ride in with his blue pick-up truck to “unite the right” in that province without doing any of the soul-searching about what any of it actually means, and what they would have to offer. No, it was just important to them to have a banner with “conservative” in it that could oppose the NDP, and sure, the “united” party did beat the NDP, but it has been nothing but internal chaos, who turned on Kenney at the first opportunity because he brought in the ungovernable, swivel-eyed loons into the fold to give him the numbers he felt he needed. As I’ve said before, he invited the face-eating leopards into the house and made them a nice warm bed, with the intention of turning them on his enemies, but they quickly realised that his face was right there and so they ate it instead. I can pretty much promise you that the exact same thing would happen in BC if they attempted such a merger, which would end up serving nobody.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian forces have taken control of two more villages in the Kharkiv region, and possibly another one in the Zaporizhzhia region in the south, as their offensive pushes forward. There have also been injuries from Russian air strikes on the southern cities of Mykolaiv and Kherson. In light of the deteriorating situation, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is postponing all foreign travel, starting with his planned trips to Spain and Portugal, because of the situation on the front lines.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1790735262978326589

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Roundup: Not spelling out a non-binding motion

The Conservatives spent their Supply Day yesterday calling for an “emergency” televised meeting with premiers on the carbon levy, which was full of the usual nonsense and false talking points about the effect the carbon levy is having on food affordability, or using the torqued numbers from the PBO report in a misleading way. Nevertheless, Pierre Poilievre was trying to make a point about Trudeau being somehow afraid to face the premiers, which is just more of his terminally online “Debate me!” energy going on, even though we all know this wouldn’t actually be a debate, it would be the premiers ganging up for the sake of them all gathering video clips for fundraising purposes.

This having been said, I find myself one again supremely irritated by how the CBC—and in particular a certain journalist in the CBC’s bureau—chose to write up the day’s activities, with the headline about the motion trying to “force” Trudeau to meet with the premiers. The motion is non-binding. It can’t force anything. All Supply Day motions are non-binding. But the headline seems to indicate that it could bind the government, and nowhere in the text of the piece does it point out that it’s non-binding. This is malpractice at this point, because it’s painting a completely false picture of what the debate was. The “debate”—and I use the term loosely because it was MPs reading twenty-minute speeches into the record—was posturing for the sake of gathering clips for social media. That’s all. And this particular writer has been on the Hill long enough that he should know this, but he has a habit of ignoring relevant facts about procedure or jurisdiction to try and lend weight to his pieces. It’s not cute, and it’s not doing anything for the CBC’s reputation.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine says that they downed 20 attack drones overnight, though there was still infrastructure damage in the west of the country. Ukraine is trying to repair and shield their power systems after the recent spate of attacks. A retaliatory strike inside of Russia hit an aviation factory in the Voronezh region. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited fortifications in the Kharkiv region, while the Americans are offering to send seized Iranian weapons, and to sell them $138 million USD air defence upgrades.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1777666453950337220

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Roundup: Capping temporary foreign workers

Yesterday, ministers Marc Miller and Randy Boissonnault announced that the federal government will be setting a “soft cap” on temporary foreign workers as part of immigration levels coming this fall, with an eye to reducing the number who arrive in Canada. Part of this is justified by the fact that the pandemic labour shortages have started to subside, and there isn’t the same need for as many, particularly in low-wage sectors where the valid criticism is that access to these workers keeps wages artificially low, though we have seen a great deal of wage growth over the past two years as part of the labour shortages and rising inflation, and wage growth has been outpacing headline inflation for a while now (which lends to fears of a wage-price spiral if wage growth doesn’t start moderating).

Mike Moffatt has some context for what the government announced, which is going to combine with the caps on foreign students.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1770916193894891796

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1770917112007000102

On that note, The Logic takes a look at how those public-private partnership colleges are going to have to deal with the new federal rules around capped numbers, after they learned to exploit the old system, which was treated very much as a loophole by those students who knew they weren’t getting much of an education but were rather trying to get a foothold in Canada so they could get some work experience that would allow them apply for permanent residency—something else that the re-imposition of the caps on hours worked for international students is going to have even more of an impact on.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russia launched its largest missile barrage against Kyiv in weeks, and while all of the missiles were shot down, there was still damage and injuries from the debris. As well, missile strikes damaged power supplies in Kharkiv, and a missile strike in Mykolaiv in the south killed one and injured four. Three Ukrainian-backed Russian rebel groups say they are continuing cross-border attacks following weeks of raids. Ukrainian women are talking about beatings they received at the hands of Russians during the occupation of their homes.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1770729801940123891

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