Tag Archives: Inflation

Roundup: The inflation and population figures

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There were a couple of important figures released from StatsCan yesterday, and the first was the November inflation numbers. While some analysts were predicting it to fall, it held at 3.1% for a second month, showing that this is the part where it’s starting to get sticky, and why the Bank can’t let up measures and start reducing interest rates just yet. One of the upsides is that food price inflation continues to come down, which means that prices are stabilising, so that’s very good news (and it has nothing to do with carbon prices). And don’t forget to check out this thread from Trevor Tombe, as he digs into the numbers.

https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1737111583002923039

The other figures released were the population figures, and it was the fastest growth of any quarter since 1957. The thing to keep an eye on here is that a lot of this seems to be driven by non-permanent residents, whether international students (and the big problem there are a couple of colleges in Ontario turning themselves into abusive degree mills), and other temporary foreign workers, some of whom may have been hired in an abusive way. Some of this are also asylum seekers who have not yet received status (because “closing” Roxham Road didn’t really do much for this situation other than push it underground).

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1737106801617703236

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1737109349477310976

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1737112568286855177

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1737136794938884329

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russia launched an air attack on Kyiv for the fifth time this month, but this attack was intercepted and no damage was reported. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukraine is boosting its domestic production capacity and will produce one million drones next year. Zelenskyy is also dismissing talk that there is a rift between him and the head of the army. Here’s a look at the work judges are doing to keep the justice system going in a country under fire.

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QP: Hyperventilating about Stellantis

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While the prime minister was present, his deputy was in the lock-up, meeting with reporters about the Fall Economic Statement in advance of its release at 4 PM. All of the other leaders were present, ready to demand to know what was in the update before its release. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, returns to the Scotiabank report he raised yesterday, and blamed the federal government for driving inflation, before demanding a balanced budget in the fiscal update. Justin Trudeau responded that the solution to this difficult period is not austerity, but strategic investments in helping families. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his same question, and lo, got very much the same response from Trudeau. Poilievre blamed the federal government for fast-rising rents, and demanded that the government cap the carbon price until the next election. Trudeau said the solution to rising rents is to build more units, which the government is doing, before mocking Poilievre’s assertion that the government is doing “damage” to Canada through child benefits, child care, or dental care. Poilievre then pivoted to the Stellantis plant and the overblown concern that it would use temporary foreign workers.  Trudeau noted that Poilievre would use any misinformation to denounce plans he doesn’t like, but he didn’t actually debunk the assertion. Poilievre said that no, it was Trudeau who spreading misinformation, and repeated his same overblown and false assertions. Trudeau said it was flat-out false and fear-mongering, but again, didn’t actually explain what the truth was, because of course not.

Yves-François Blanchet lead for the Bloc, and he demanded that the government include an increase in old-age security and an extension to CERB repayments in the economic update. Trudeau noted that they have been increasing payments for seniors, and that they supported those small businesses in COVID, but Blanchet would have to wait a couple of hours. Blanchet wondered if he should send his questions in advance so that he could get a real answer, before he repeated his same demand. Trudeau said he would be happy to send Blanchet a schedule that shows the update is released at 4 PM.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he too raised the spectre of temporary foreign workers at the Stellantis plant, to which Trudeau said that while nobody was surprised that Poilievre would fall prey to disinformation but it was disappointing that Singh did too—but again, didn’t explain the truth. Singh switched to French to demand a competition changes to target grocery giants. Trudeau patted himself on the back for their plan to summon grocery CEOs, and said that there would be competition measures in the economic update.

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Roundup: Graphing some drivers of inflation

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Just how much are the price of raw materials contributing to headline inflation? Well, the raw materials price index was released yesterday, and economist Stephen Gordon was curious, so he made some graphs.

Things I noticed: While gasoline is a big driver of headline inflation, the prices of wheat and beef are worth taking a look at because of the price spikes. What caused those spikes? Drought. Drought killed 40 percent of the wheat crop in 2021, and also meant a shortage of feed crop for livestock, which meant that ranchers had to cull herds to be able to afford to feed the remaining animals (because importing feed is expensive). This year we also saw more drought, which is having the same effect (and that drought has been persistent in southern Saskatchewan, which has to be in danger of turning into a dustbowl soon). And yes, there is a direct correlation to these more frequent droughts with climate change.

Also worth pointing out is the price of chicken also spiking, which was because of avian flu that meant culling flocks to prevent transmission. Again, that drives up prices. This is just more data to show that it’s not the carbon price driving up food prices—it’s climate change and its knock-on effects.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine’s largest private energy company says that they need more missile defences to protect power plants in advance of more Russian attacks over the winter. Ukrainian forces have confirmed that they have established several beachheads on the eastern banks of the Dnipro river, which is an important step in the counter-offensive. In Kharkiv region, the government is now building fortified underground schools because of the constant attacks. A Yale study says that more than 2400 Ukrainian children from four occupied regions have been taken to Belarus.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1725490287160529137

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Roundup: No, that’s not how inflation works

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Because some of you at the back still don’t get it, no, carbon pricing does not contribute 16 percent of inflation. It contributes 0.15 percent, because inflation is a year-over-year measure, and when the increase is steady and holding, the actual impact on inflation is negligible, because that’s how inflation works. But several of you you keep insisting that your math is correct when it’s not, and so here’s economist Trevor Tombe to try and get it through to you:

https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1720919364172697678

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian missiles struck a shipyard in occupied Crimea, damaging a Russian warship there. There are conflicting reports about the state of the counter-offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region, where Russia claims they have halted any advance, while Ukrainians say that they continue to advance, albeit slowly. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pushes back against the notion that they have entered into a stalemate, and says they need more air defences so that Russia can no longer dominate the skies. Here’s a look at Ukrainian soldiers who have turned to jiu-jitsu after losing limbs in the war.

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QP: A bizarre false version of reality with a draconian coalition in place

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The prime minister was present today, which has become unusual for a Thursday, but since he wasn’t here yesterday it was good that we at least got a second appearance in the week. Not every leader was present today, and neither was the deputy PM, for what it’s worth. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and name-checked Catherine McKenna, Mark Carney, and Senator Percy Downe in pointing out people disappointed with Trudeau, and pounced on Downe’s call on Trudeau to resign, as if Downe’s opinion carries any weight at all. Justin Trudeau stood up and recited prepared lines that they are focused on helping Canadians while tackling climate change, and that the team is togetherness. Poilievre noted that he didn’t answer the question, and accused the government of not caring about Canadians who need heating. Trudeau listed things that the Conservatives would cut if they got into power. Poilievre switched to English to say that Trudeau hadn’t denounced the things Gudie Hutchings said about people voting Lineral, and demanded a yes of no answer to whether they would support his supply day motion whether his MPs would have a free vote. Trudeau rambled about phasing out heating oil and called on provinces to sign up to the heat pump programme. Poilievre noted he didn’t answer the question and wondered if the NDP would also get a free vote, which should have been out of bounds. Trudeau instead talked about how many people in Alberta, Saskatchewan and BC use heating oil and called on those provinces to partner about heat pumps. Poilievre asked if they would make his Supply Day motion a confidence vote, but Trudeau again rambled about heat pumps and said that Poilievre was making a mistake if he thought Canadians didn’t care about the environment. 

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and raised the issue of immigration levels, and consulting Quebec on them. Trudeau read that Quebec has their own targets and that the federal government provides resources to the province for integration. Blanchet again demanded proper consultations before firm targets were set, but Trudeau repeated his response.

Peter Julian rose for the NDP, and in French, he called on support for their call to take the GST off of home heating (which, again, is unworkable administratively and disproportionately benefits the wealthy). Trudeau responded that the thousand of people in BC who rely on heating oil should take advantage of the heat pump programme. Taylor Bachrach took over to relay a constituent’s problems with the heat pump rebate and wanted the same programme for Atlantic Canadians extended to the whole country. Trudeau said they wanted to, but provinces need to partner with them.

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Roundup: A primer on inflation calculation

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Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem testified at the Commons finance committee earlier in the week, and a whole lot of people, including a certain “Food Professor” charlatan and numerous Conservative MPs, demonstrated that they don’t understand math or inflation as they all misconstrued the numbers that Macklem gave. And they’re the same number he has given before—that the carbon price has had a 0.15% effect on inflation, and if you removed it, going from $65/tonne to 0, it would have a temporary effect of reducing inflation by 0.6%.

A whole bunch of people–said charlatan, those MPs—insisted that because 0.6% is 16 percent of the 3.8% of headline inflation, that it means that the carbon price is responsible for 16% of inflation, which is wrong and not how inflation is calculated. Removing it wouldn’t actually mean inflation would go from 3.8% to 3.2% because the carbon price is not driving it. Energy and food prices are doing a lot of the driving there (and food prices are being hugely affected by climate change), and even if it did move to 3.2%, the Bank isn’t going to start lowering interest rates until it reaches the two percent target. Essentially, you’d be killing the carbon price and undoing the work it’s doing to lower emissions on the basis of a bad lie that it has made life unaffordable.

Meanwhile, here’s economist Stephen Gordon breaking down how inflation is calculated, with the inevitable conclusion that the carbon price is just noise—it’s not driving inflation, and it’s better to focus on the things that are.

A threat to democracy

A bunch of people got the vapours yesterday when Mark Miller called Pierre Poilievre a threat to democracy. Apparently these same people have convenient amnesia, or wishful thinking that he’s only kidding in what he’s doing and saying, because nobody learned a gods damned lesson from the Trump years.

Ukraine Dispatch:

While rallying Ukrainian troops, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy counselled patience and not to expect instant success (the latter comment directed primarily toward Western allies). A UN report says that 40 percent of Ukrainians need humanitarian support as a result of the conditions brought about by Russia’s invasion.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1719348496640200777

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QP: The plan to phase-out heating oil

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The prime minister and all other leaders were present, albeit temporarily. Before things got started, Speaker Fergus gave another exhortation to improve their decorum, following a disruption during Members’ Statements. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he talked about the so-called “second carbon tax” that doesn’t exist, and switched to English halfway through to call on the PM to denounce what Gudie Hutchings said on the weekend. Trudeau read a script in French to praise their programme to help people switch to heat pumps, including free pumps for low-income households. Poilievre was fully in English to denounce the so-called “two classes of Canadians” that this heating oil pause created, and demanded the whole price be cut. Trudeau insisted that this was a step toward getting everyone off heating oil and onto heat pumps. Poilievre insisted that this was an attack on national unity, to which Trudeau denounced this as disinformation, and pointed out that most people get more in a rebate than they pay in carbon prices. Poilievre then misquoted the PBO on the costs of the carbon price, and mischaracterised what Trudeau said about the heating oil pause, to which Trudeau tried to more emphatically insist that they wanted to get free heat pumps to low-income households in provinces where they have an agreement. Poilievre insisted that he wanted to get rid of the price for all people in all places, and wanted it paused until the next election so it could be put to the public. Trudeau insisted that the Conservatives have lost three elections in a row on denying climate change and that the Liberals would show them that once again.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he wanted a concession on reducing immigration targets, given that it was the subject of the Bloc’s Supply Day motion. Trudeau launched into a paean about how great and necessary immigration is for the country. Blanchet demanded support for their motion, and Trudeau talked about how they engage with stakeholder, and indicated their support for the motion (which is surprisingly considering that the motion is entirely concern trolling).

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he demanded the government remove the GST on all home heating—a programme that is largely unworkable and disproportionately benefits the wealthy. Trudeau talked about how years ago they agreed to phase out coal, and now they are doing the same with heating oil. Singh repeated the question in French, and got much the same response. 

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QP: Mendaciously torquing a boneheaded comment

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The prime minister and his deputy were both in town today, but absent from the Chamber as QP got underway, while the other leaders were all present, which is actually quite unusual for a Monday. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, lying about the carbon price, and then calling on the “second carbon tax,” which doesn’t exist, to also be cancelled, with a mention of Quebec and the Bloc thrown in there. Steven Guilbeault insisted that the government has been consistent, ask that any party that wants to be in government needs to deal with climate change while tackling affordability, and that the Conservatives have nothing on offer. Poilievre switched to English to claim that Trudeau was huddled in the foetal position, sweating about Poilievre’s “Axe the Tax” rally, before he paused the carbon tax on heating oil. Jonathan Wilkinson pointed out their heat pump programme for people to take advantage of. Poilievre raised Gudie Hutchings’ media interview when she talked about other areas of the country needing to elect more Liberals and suggested that the Liberal MPs were useless in other areas. Wilkinson again got up to insist that they had programmes for everyone. Poilievre kept going about how useless those Liberal MPs from other cities were, and this time Karina Gould got up to praise the rebates. Poilievre demanded breaks for other provinces, and accused the prime minister of dividing the country. Gould raised the previous “common sense conservative” government in Ontario that gutted programmes people needed.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he demanded an extension of the repayment period for CEBA loans, to which Rechie Valdez read her script about the added flexibility they offered for repayment. Blanchet was not satisfied and demanded that full extension, decrying the effect on “real companies.” This time Marie-Claude Bibeau got up to repeat the same points in more confident, extemporaneous French.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he demanded that the GST be removed on all home heating—something which disproportionately benefits the rich. Wilkinson suggested that Singh needs to do his homework and repeated the points about the national programmes. Singh switched to French to raise Doug Ford and the Greenbelt before demanded the government build not-for-profit housing. Guilbeault pointed out that he was opposed to Ford’s plans, and that they signed agreements with province to protect more natural areas.

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QP: Trying to make “quadruple” happen

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While the prime minister was in town and due to make an announcement shortly after QP, neither he nor any other leader were present today. Melissa Lantsman led off, and laid out a network of supposedly shady dealings around the ArriveCan app development. Arif Virani said that they were aware of the allegations and there was an RCMP investigation underway, so they would not comment. Lantsman tried to equate this scandal with people using food banks, and Virani repeated his same response. Lantsman repeated the same assertion, and this time Sean Fraser stood up and pointed out that the Conservatives’ record doesn’t stand up to their rhetoric. Pierre Paul-Hus took over in French, and he gave Quebec-specific food bank figures to tie it to the ArriveCan app development. Virani got up to give the French version of his statement. Paul-Hus cited a survey about Quebeckers being worried about their mortgage renewals, which they blamed on government spending. Rodriguez stood up to say that Quebeckers are afraid of Conservatives because all they care about is cuts.

Alain Therrien led off for the Bloc, and wanted the government to cut immigration numbers because of housing supply issues. Fraser said that it is possible to welcome arrivals and build new housing at the same time, and that they signed a housing agreement with Quebec. Therrien repeated the same demand, and this time Marc Miller said that as a Quebecker, he recognises the need for higher immigration.

Heather McPherson rose for the NDP, and she demanded immediate action for homelessness in Edmonton. Fraser for back up to say that they have been working to build more homes and doubled support for homelessness. Bonita Zarrillo said that those solutions would not help this winter, and demanded immediate action (because they have a magic wand?) Fraser repeated his same points about the support they have been provided.

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Roundup: A “dull as hell” House

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Jean Chrétien gave an interview yesterday to mark the 30th anniversary of his election win to form government in 1993, and there’s one part in it that sticks out for me in particular, which was about his time in politics, pre-dating his becoming prime minister, which has to do with the use of television in the Chamber:

“When I became a member of Parliament, there was no TV… In the House of Commons, we had no television. In those days in the House of Commons, we didn’t have the right to read anything. We had to get up and speak. It was fun. Today, they all come with speeches prepared by kids in the office and it is dull as hell, rather than have a real debate like we had in those days.”

This is spot on. It wasn’t just the arrival of the cameras that changed things, it was the relaxation of the rules around prepared speeches. It used to be that you weren’t allowed them, with very limited exceptions—the address in reply to the Speech from the Throne, the budget, and if you needed some particular help with specific facts or figures or translation (because simultaneous interpretation was a later arrival into Parliament). When they relaxed the rule around prepared speeches, it meant MPs started reading speeches into the record; time limits started to mean that they didn’t just speak up to that twenty-minute mark, but they were expected to fill the time entirely, which again, makes for very bad prepared speeches. There’s no actual debate either—during “debate” on a bill, the period for “questions and comments” is usually reserved for recitations of established talking points, with no actual exchange. One question, one response is not actually debate. Without relying on prepared speeches, and actually being allowed to debate, it would have made for actual tension or frisson between them, and to force them to know their material.

The other thing with the arrival of television is how it changed the nature of Question Period. It became very much about trying to a) get on TV, and b) providing clips for the evening news, which is one reason why parties started to do things like asking the same question in English and in French, so that they could get clips for both news services. With the advent of social media, however, the incentives changed again, and it was about creating content for those social feeds, which could include bad behaviour to drive up engagement. This is where we’re at now. It’s not exciting, and like Chrétien says, it’s “dull has hell” because you’re just watching badly scripted performances meant entirely for the consumption of clips. Politics should not be about this.

Ukraine Dispatch:

A civilian was killed in the Kherson region early Wednesday after Russians bombed the area. Russians are ignoring their losses and pressing on at Avdiivka, Debris from downed Russian drones downed power lines near a nuclear plan in the western part of the country, knocking out power for hundreds of people. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukraine will strike back if Russia attacks their power grid again this weekend. Here is a look at some Ukrainian sappers who have returned to the job of de-mining after they lost limbs doing the work.

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