Tag Archives: Inflation

Roundup: Calling for price caps

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The NDP are at it again, and by “it,” I mean making stupid demands that should get them laughed out of any room they’re in. To wit, yesterday they demanded price caps on certain grocery items, claiming that the Loblaws settlement over the class action for the bread price-fixing scheme as “proof” that government needs to take action. I can’t think of a more economically illiterate argument that is trying to simply base itself on “vibes” that will only do far more harm than it will do good.

The high price of certain grocery items is rarely an issue of grocery chains hiking prices. It does happen, but there has been little evidence of it when margins have been stable. If you bother to actually pay attention to agricultural news or Statistics Canada data, it’s pretty clear that much of those price increases are a result of climate change-related droughts in food-producing regions, with the odd flash flood or hurricane also ruining crops, and driving up prices. The invasion of Ukraine exacerbated issues by throwing world markets for wheats and cooking oils out of whack, driving up prices as exports couldn’t get to market. And even if you have growing conditions that rebound, often price are locked into contracts with producers or processors for several years at a time, which can delay prices returning to lower levels as supply rebounds. But the point here is that most of this is explainable if you actually bother to look, rather than just screaming “corporate greed!” because you are ideologically predisposed to doing so.

More to the point, this just strikes me as a little bit of history repeating the demands for price controls in the mid-seventies as inflation was reaching double-digits, which then-prime minister Pierre Trudeau mocked with the phrase “Zap, you’re frozen!” We’re not there, and frankly the demand for price caps is frankly ridiculous, and if they persist, we should resurrect “Zap, you’re frozen” to mock them as relentlessly.

Programming Note: I am taking the next week or so off. Columns will continue on schedule but blogs and videos will be taking a bit of a break.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched drone attacks against power facilities in two regions, prompting more power grid disruptions. Another drone attack appears to have overshot and struck down in Romania, but NATO doesn’t believe that this was an intentional attack. A leaked UN report is pointing to Russia as the culprit of an explosion at barracks housing Ukrainian POWs two years ago that killed fifty.

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QP: Mocking each other’s housing plans

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With precious few Wednesdays remaining in the spring sitting, the prime minister was present today, while his deputy was off at a Senate committee meeting to talk about the budget bills. The other leaders were all present, and Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and raised an interview that the PM gave where he said that if he spends more, That inflation will go up, and claimed that he had been saying that the whole time. Justin Trudeau noted that he ignored the rest of the sentence from the interview and talked about investments in helping Canadians like dental care. Poilievre mocked this, and demanded his “dollar for dollar” budget slogan be implemented. Trudeau noted that dental care is not inflation, it’s help for people who need it, which the Conservatives are against. Poilievre switched to English to repeat the quote from the interview, and Trudeau repeated that the Conservatives have been using inflation as the excuse not to support programmes like dental care. Poilievre mocked this, saying Trudeau was going against his own words, which he actually wasn’t, but Trudeau insisted that they have been focused on bringing down inflation, which the Conservative found uproarious. Poilievre again mocked that Trudeau was finally talking about monetary policy, and Trudeau repeated the Conservatives were standing against help for people.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, worried about what was happening in Rafah, wanted a ceasefire, humanitarian aid, and to work with the Arab League for a peacekeeping force in the area toward an independent Palestinian state. Trudeau noted that they have been calling for a ceasefire and working toward a two-state solution. Blanchet asked if he believed they needed a peacekeeping force in the region, and Trudeau noted they were working with partners in the G7 and the region to get to a sustainable solution.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he insisted that Trudeau could do more about Rafah like a two-way arms embargo and sanctions against the Netanyahu government. Trudeau reiterated that he was sickened by what happened in Rafah, and that they continued to call for a ceasefire, humanitarian aid, and the hostages being released. Singh repeated the demand in French, and got much the same response. 

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QP: Gas tax holidays and make-up jabs

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For Monday-on-a-Tuesday QP, the prime minister was off in Philadelphia, but his deputy was present, as were most of the other leaders. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, rattled off some slogans, and accused the Bloc and government of scheming to raise gas taxes when other countries have cut their taxes, and mentioned his demand to cut fuel taxes over the summer. Chrystia Freeland said that she was glad he raised inflation because it allows her to mention this morning’s inflation figures, which showed another decrease thanks to their responsible management. Poilievre switched to English to insist that the government shouldn’t pat themselves on the back because inflation is still 35 percent above target, and repeats the demand to cut gas taxes. Freeland noted that he doesn’t even know that the target is between one and three percent. Poilievre returned to French to insist the target was two percent, and then lambasted the government for not locking in longer-term treasury bonds, meaning higher government interest payments. Freeland insisted he was incompetent, and Poilievre returned to English to call her incompetent, and repeat his lines about treasury bonds. Freeland suggested he was grouchy because he doesn’t like that inflation is at a three-year low. Poilievre switched to a demand to support their motion on banning all hard drugs for all times. Freeland pointed out that Poilievre was wearing more make-up than she was—got a warning from the Speaker—and after withdrawing the remark pointed out that Poilievre was phoney to the core, and that he didn’t really care about the economy or people dying from opioids, but only wants to score partisan points.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and lamented a lack of government interest in the Francophonie. Freeland says that the situation of French in Quebec is not a joke, and they are taking it seriously. Normandin took a swipe at Francis Drouin and the Liberals sticking by him, and Freeland repeated her statement of support for the French language. 

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, raised the pending arrest International a criminal Court warrants for senior Hamas and Israeli officials and demanded to know if the government would support it. Freeland said that they respect the independence of the ICC, condemn Hamas, and doesn’t believe you can draw an equivalence of Hamas’ actions with Israel’s. Singh insisted that it wasn’t the question, and repeated it in French, but got the same answer.

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QP: Going hard for March for Life day

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Despite being in town, the prime minister was not in QP today, though his deputy was, fresh from an appearance at committee. All of the other leaders were also absent, leaving Andrew Scheer to lead off in English, reciting a couple of slogans before giving some ignorant talking points about government spending, inflation, and interest rates, which had as much credibility as a crypto bro video on YouTube. Chrystia Freeland said that as it was her first opportunity to speak in the House today, she wanted to raise a grave threat—Pierre Poilievre saying that he wants to tear up Charter Rights, and that today, the so-called “March for Life” on the Hill, Conservative MPs were outside attacking a women’s right to choose, and that this proves Conservatives would attack the rights of every woman in Canada. Scheer insisted that she was trying to deflect, and cited a Desjardins report about a national measure, and demanded she “cut up the government credit card.” Freeland said that the Conservatives were upset because people are starting to see them flirt with white supremacists and threatening to tear up the Charter. Scheer insisted that they would take no lessons, because the government was trying to control the internet, before raising Mark Carney’s testimony at a Senate committee yesterday, capped off by reciting slogans. Freeland went on a paean about the rights of women to control their own body, and invited the Conservatives to affirm this right. Gérard Deltell took over in a French, and raised that July 1st is “moving day” in Quebec, and demanded to know what the government is doing about rent (which is provincial jurisdiction). Freeland went on a Quebec-specific paean about women’s rights to bodily autonomy. Deltell insisted that all Quebec women and everyone else in the country was suffering from the government’s so-called “inflationary policies.” Freeland once again insisted that women have a right to control their own body, and that there were Conservatives outside at the anti-abortion rally.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc to again return to the non-issue of Francis Drouin’s outburst at committee and demanded he resign from his Francophonie role. Freeland raised the Bloc for standing up for women’s rights before noting their support for the French language. Therrien repeated his demand, and Freeland repeated her praise for their investments in French.

Alexandre Boulerice railed about grocery CEO profits, and accused the government of a sweet deal with then. Freeland praised their changes to competition law as an important step. Alistair MacGregor repeated the same in English, and Freeland this time praised their plan to make those at the top pay a little more with the capital changes, before repeating the point about competition reform.

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Roundup: Back to challenging the Speaker once again

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Not unexpectedly, a number of MPs have renewed the call to oust Greg Fergus from the Speaker’s chair after Tuesday’s dramatics during Question Period. For the Bloc, who soured on Fergus shortly after his election and his recording a video in his robes, they’re complaining that he can’t control the room, which is a bit unfair because MPs themselves have hobbled the Speaker’s ability to enforce decorum by giving him narrow powers in the Standing Orders. This logic also ignores the culpability of those who are making the noise—the Speaker isn’t making them behave like that. And for the record, Fergus says he’s not stepping down.

For the Conservatives, however, they are playing the victim, as is a common far-right tactic these days, and claiming that he had a double standard on Tuesday. Their proof—that prime minister Justin Trudeau wasn’t forced to retract or get named when he referred to Poilievre’s “spineless leadership” in not denouncing far-right extremists and Alex Jones. Note that the language Trudeau used was that the leadership was spineless, he did not call Poilievre that. And he was warned about inflammatory language, and he rephrased. Poilievre called Trudeau “whacko,” which was is a direct attack, and then refused to withdraw the word when instructed to—and again, the prevarication and wheedling of trying to replace the word is not respecting the Speaker’s authority, especially when invited to simply withdraw four times. There is a difference between what each leader said and how each responded, and if Conservatives can’t tell that difference, then they have a real problem with their critical thinking skills, which isn’t a good thing for an MP.

There was added drama when Conservative MP Rachael Thomas, who now claims that she withdrew her remarks yesterday but was ejected anyway, and more to the point, says that Hansard was edited to justify Fergus’ decision. Recall that Fergus was cautioning her for yelling at him during an outburst, to which she shot back “I have big problems with the Chair.” Fergus told her to withdraw that, to which Thomas’s response was “Mr. Speaker, I stated that the Chair is acting in a disgraceful manner,” and then says that she added “I withdraw,” which is also in the Blues (meaning the unedited transcripts before they go for final polish). But I was sitting right above her, and didn’t hear her say “I withdraw,” but even if she did, you can’t challenge the Speaker again and then just say “I withdraw” and expect no consequences. That’s not even like a qualified apology, it’s openly challenging a second time, and then trying to give yourself a fig-leaf of cover. That’s bullshit, and she knows it.

To put a cherry on top of this, CBC dug up video of then-Speaker Andrew Scheer saying you can’t challenge the integrity of the Speaker, which includes allegations of partisanship, and lo, what are they doing now? Rules for thee but not for me is very much their modus operandi, and it’s not great for democracy.

Ukraine Dispatch:

A Russian ballistic missile struck a postal depot in Odesa, injuring fourteen and starting a huge fire, and Russians claim to have struck Ukraine’s southern command post in the same attack. There was also a guided bomb attack in the Kharkiv region, killing two in an attack on the village of Zolochiv, while there was also an attack on the town of Hirnyk near the front lines, which killed at least two more people. Drone footage shows the way that Chasiv Yar has been devastated by Russian bombardment as the move toward it, while Ukrainian forces in that area say they badly need more ammunition. The US is accusing Russia of breaking international chemical weapons ban by deploying choking agent chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops.

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QP: “Intruding” into the competences of the provinces

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Even though Wednesdays are usually the day the prime minister answers all questions in QP, he was absent today, as he was due to begin his testimony at the foreign interference inquiry before QP was likely to end. His deputy was also absent, but not all of the other leaders were present, even though it’s Wednesday. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, listing off a number of falsehoods around things like inflation, and wondered why the federal government was meddling in Quebec’s affairs. Jean-Yves Duclos noted that it was odd for Poilievre to talk about incompetence because when he was housing minister, he built a whole six units, but you called Quebec mayors incompetent. Poilievre then noted that interest rates did not come down today and blamed federal spending, but Duclos kept on with his same points. Poilievre repeated the false point about interest rates, and Anita Anand pointed out that it’s possible to provide supports for Canadians while being fiscally prudent, and listed their measures. Poilievre repeated the false claim that government spending is fuelling inflation, and Anand noted that wages are growing faster than inflation and that the current government has brought down poverty rates across the country. Poilievre gave his Mark Carney lines, and this time François-Philippe Champagne stood up to declare that he would take no lessons from the Conservatives, and listed their plans to help Canadians while the slogans on the other side wouldn’t build homes.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc—even though Yves-François Blanchet was just out in the Foyer answering questions—and accused the federal government of meddling in Quebec’s jurisdiction and demanded they just give them money. Duclos listed investments the government is making to help Canadians. Therrien repeated his same demand, and listed more ways they work with Quebec.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and decried the Indigenous infrastructure funding gap (Hajdu: It was important for the AFN to help us write this report so we can close the gap faster), and then asked about the Canadian Disability Benefit implementation (Kiera: We are on track to deliver the benefit, and we will get it right).

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QP: Demanding a televised meeting

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Although he had not been initially scheduled to attend Question Period today, the prime minister updated his itinerary late morning to indicate that he would be here today after all, even though his deputy would not be. All of the other leaders were also present, as is usual when the PM is here. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, recited his slogans, accused the government of ramping up “generational inflation” (which is not what happened) and said the government was giving more to bankers than healthcare. Trudeau listed what they are investing in healthcare, as well as school food, and child care, but didn’t correct the disinformation about inflation. Poilievre again falsely claimed that they government’s programmes were inflationary and demanded a meeting with the premiers, and Poilievre insisted that they were there to work with the provinces, as opposed to Conservative austerity. Poilievre switched to English to once again recite his slogans, falsely quoted the PBO report, and demanded a televised meeting with the premiers. Trudeau said that if they really cared about people having a hard time, they would help to pass the rural top-up. Poilievre insisted that they could do so with the NDP’s support, and repeated his demand for the televised meeting. Trudeau noted that they did agree to carbon pricing before, and noted the upcoming the upcoming rebate payments to people. Poilievre repeated the same falsehoods as before and wondered why Trudeau wouldn’t meet with the premiers. Trudeau noted that Poilievre was spouting misinformation and disinformation and that he got an endorsement from Alex Jones.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and worried about interference in Quebec’s jurisdiction, and that the federal government had no competence in healthcare, child care and education. Trudeau said that even though provinces have the competence, there are gaps that people are falling through so they are investing in the help people need along with provinces. Blanchet made a remark about not going to a dentist to fix his car, which gave Trudeau an opening to praise dental care.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP and railed about corporations delaying climate action, and oil and gas subsidies, to which Trudeau noted that they have eliminated those subsidies ahead of schedule and praised carbon pricing. Singh repeated the question in French, and got a paean about the costs of climate change, and the carbon rebates.

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Roundup: A trip to Kyiv

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For the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Justin Trudeau took an unannounced trip to Kyiv, along with Chrystia Freeland and Bill Blair, and were accompanied by Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, and Belgian prime minister Alexander De Croo, all to show solidarity and make new commitments. Included in that was Trudeau signing a security assurance package with president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which has been in the works for several weeks now and comes on the heels of similar assurance agreements with France and Germany. Trudeau also took a couple of shots at Putin, calling him a “weakling,” who killed Alexei Navalny in order to crush his opposition.

Freeland and Bill Blair visited an Operation Unifier training facility in Poland, and found that there is a real shortage of battlefield medicine equipment on the front lines.

There were a few events in Canada to mark the same anniversary, one of which was attended by Pierre Poilievre, who stated over social media that the Conservatives stand with Ukraine, despite his not doing a very good job of demonstrating it over the past few months.

Ukraine Dispatch:

A Russian attack overnight on Sunday destroyed a train station, shops and homes in Kostiantynivka near the front lines. Russians claim they have been moving to more advantageous positions around Avdiivka and Donetsk. Ukraine says they struck a major Russian steel factory during the anniversary of the invasion.

President Zelenskyy gave the official figure of Ukrainian soldiers killed in the fighting at 31,000 thus far, which is the first time it’s been stated in over a year. He also warned that Russia is likely to attempt a new offensive before May. Ukraine’s defence minister says that delays in promised western aid is costing lives (but has anyone been pressuring defence manufacturers to ramp up their production?). The defence minister and army chief visited command posts near the front lines on Sunday.

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1761450921609904450

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Roundup: The wrong people taking credit for disinflation

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Statistics Canada released the January Consumer Price Index data yesterday, and lo, it shows that inflation is dipping back into the control range at 2.9% annualized, which was lower than anticipated, and fairly broad-based including food prices decelerating to just above the headline number, meaning prices are stabilising finally, and yet somehow, with carbon prices still in place, and the grocery oligopolies not having been subjected to punitive windfall taxes. Imagine that!

In all seriousness, because there were month-over-month price drops in fuel prices in Manitoba thanks to Wab Kinew’s decision to pause gas taxes, and Saskatchewan not collecting the carbon levy, we got a bunch of people who should know better saying stupid things about carbon prices and inflation. Kinew, who has economics training, should especially know better.

Inflation is a year-over-year measure. Carbon prices have a negligible impact on it because it rises at the same level every year, so it’s not inflationary. A one-time drop in prices is also not deflationary or disinflationary because it’s a one-time drop, not sustained or pervasive. If you need a further explainer, economist Stephen Gordon has resurrected this thread to walk you through it.

On the subject of things that are unfathomably dumb, it looks like the CRA has decided to buy Saskatchewan’s transparent legal fiction that the provincial government is the natural gas distributor for the province, in spite of it being against the clear letter of the federal and provincial law, which means that consequences for the province not remitting the carbon levy on heating will be borne by Cabinet and not the board of SaskEnergy. What the hell?

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian attacks on the northern part of Ukraine killed seven on Tuesday, while Ukraine’s forces say they destroyed 13 out of 19 drones launched by Russia on Wednesday. Ukrainian officials are investigating the Russians shooting three soldiers captured on Sunday. Here is a look at the shattered ruins of Avdiivka. Ukraine’s state arms producer has signed an agreement with a German arms manufacturer to help produce more air defences domestically.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1759942168989360468

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Roundup: Falsely framing carbon prices and inflation

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Because this is sometimes a media criticism blog, I want to point your direction to a CTV piece from the weekend, taken from an interview with Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon on CTV’s Question Period. The headline and substance of the piece, taken from the interview, is “Feds won’t pause carbon price despite inflation.” Now, if you were a casual reader who didn’t know what was going on, you might think that the carbon price is driving inflation and the government is being obstinate in refusing to deal with that driver of inflation.

That would, however, be completely wrong. We know that the carbon price contributes only negligibly to inflation because inflation is measured on a year-over-year basis, and with the carbon price increasing at the same rate every year, the impact on year-over-year prices remains negligible. The Bank of Canada figures that it works out to 0.15 percent of inflation. Is this mentioned anywhere in the story? Nope. Instead, it’s both-sides as pointing to Poilievre’s promise to “axe the tax” (which is not a tax, but a levy, and yes, there is a difference), contrasted with MacKinnon pointing out that at committee last week, food economists pointed to the fact that there’s no evidence the carbon price has had a meaningful impact on the price of food, because, again, if you pay attention, you would know that the bigger drivers of food price inflation are droughts or floods in food-producing regions, including Canada’s, which is related to climate change. (That poing is also absent from the story).

Why does this matter? Because of how the story has been framed. It frames itself that carbon prices are driving inflation, which is false and misleading. It sets up a false scenario about what is driving inflation (which has fallen over the last year and is now in a sticker place just above target), and sets about positing a false solution, while trying to look like it’s concerned about cost-of-living concerns while looking at absolutely none of the driving factors of what has caused an increase in the cost of living. This, my friends, is shoddy journalism. I get that they were trying to get a headline out of that interviews, but great Cyllenian Hermes, that was not the way to do it, and it’s a little embarrassing that this was the result.

Ukraine Dispatch:

At least three Ukrainians have been killed in Russian attacks on cities in the country’s east, near the front lines. Ukrainian forces repelled an attempted Russian advance on the southern front, as Russians move their forces forward following the withdrawal from Avdiivka. The withdrawal from Avdiivka was preceded by a change in Russian tactics designed to take advantage of the shortage of ammunition. Ukrainian forces say that Russians executed six unarmed Ukrainian soldiers taken prisoner in Avdiivka as they were fleeing, and two more in the nearby village of Vesele. Here is a look at the significance of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and other infrastructure within Russian borders.

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1759195559272108467

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