Tag Archives: Inflation

Roundup: NDP remain clueless about inflation

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Yesterday, Statistics Canada released the December inflation numbers, and they ticked up to 1.9 percent as higher energy prices offset the downward effect that the stupid GST/HST “holiday” was having on some of the indexes. That “holiday” ended last week, so that effect will end shortly, but there were also notes to watch in that some of the core measures that the Bank of Canada tracks closely started to tick back up again after months of steady declines.

In response to these results, the NDP put out a statement that crowed that the GST “holiday” had driven down food price inflation, and therefore must be made permanent. *sighs* My dudes. No. You didn’t actually read the fucking report, did you? If you had, you would have seen that the decline in food price inflation was from restaurant meals, not grocery stores, along with alcohol purchases because beer and wine was also affected by the GST/HST holiday. Also, you don’t know how inflation works, because it’s a year-over-year measure. That means that if you make it permanent, within a year, the one-time tax cut will disappear as the year-over-year figures no longer count it. It also ignores that the real driver of food price inflation is climate change (and the yes, the war in Ukraine). This is not only illiterate, but it’s sheer incompetence.

There was something else in the report that bears mentioning, that was included in the rising energy prices, which was the provincial gas tax in Manitoba. A year ago, when Wab Kinew suspended the tax, he boasted that it meant Manitoba had the lowest inflation in the country. Well, it’s a year later, and inflation is a year-over-year measure, and said gas tax has been reinstated (albeit at a lower level than it was previously). And what are Manitoba’s numbers like? Well, their energy prices increased by 25.9%. Because inflation is a year-over-year measure, and this is the price you pay for a gimmick like suspending your gas tax for populist reasons.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia has launched an overnight drone attack on Odessa, which has injured at least four. Ukraine launched their own overnight drone attack on Russia, hitting an oil refinery in the Samara region, after they previously hit a pumping station for the Caspian pipeline that supplies Kazakhstan. Russian forces claim to have control of the settlement of Yampolivka in the east, while Ukrainian forces destroyed a North Korean self-propelled howitzer in Luhansk region.

Meanwhile, president Zelenskyy is not visiting Saudi Arabia so as not to legitimise the “peace talks” that the US is holding with Russia without Ukraine or Europe present, where the US is throwing a lifeline to Putin rather than using the opportunity to maximize the pressure on him, while Trump himself was reciting Russian propaganda from the White House.

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QP: Using Crombie and Joly as cudgels

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The prime minister was present and ready to take all questions, while his deputy found better things to do. All of the other leaders were present today, and Pierre Poilievre led off in French, as is his usual wont, and claimed the PM was weak, lost control of the border, his spending, and his own party, and used Bonnie Crombie’s words as proof (even though it’s not the same party). Justin Trudeau said that his caucus was unified about the GST “holiday,” and claimed Conservatives wanted to vote for it and that Poilievre gagged them. Poilievre repeated the “lost control” slogan to apply it to food insecurity, and wanted assurances from the Economic Statement next week. Trudeau said it would come in due course, and that the government was helping people while Poilievre was jostling for his own political interests. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question while adding in the claim that Mélanie Joly launched her leadership campaign in the New York Times. Trudeau said that the Liberals are allowed to have different opinions while Poilievre just muzzles his MPs. Poilievre went on about the Joly story, and said Trudeau needs to get the hint that his party doesn’t want him any more. Trudeau gave a paean about Canadians pulling together when they face threats but Poilievre can’t help himself. Poilievre said that Trudeau was giving Canadian jobs to Trump, and listed “taxes” as proof, while Trudeau said that Canadians see through Poilievre’s shallow games, and that he wants them to struggle because he thinks it helps his prospects.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and demanded the federal government respect the unanimous motion in the Quebec National Assembly to get rid of the religious exemption for hate crimes, and Trudeau hit back that if they cared about it, they would do something about the Conservative filibuster so that said bill could come up for debate. Blanchet repeated the demand, and Trudeau again repeated his point about the Bloc not helping to end the filibuster.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and demanded permanent GST exemptions for “daily essentials,” and Trudeau patted himself on their GST “holiday.” Singh recited his new line about the Conservatives being “boot-lickers for billionaires” and the Speaker had to interject before Singh repeated his demand in French. Trudeau repeated his same self-congratulatory response.

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QP: Today’s slogan of “border disorder”

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Following all of the speculation and accusation about the dinner at Mar-a-Lago, the prime minister was finally present today, along with his deputy, as were most of the other leaders. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he said that regardless if you take the Trump’s threats seriously or believe them to be a negotiation tactic, he claimed Trudeau has “lost control” of everything and demanded an election. Justin Trudeau said that they had a good discussion that talked about the good work they can do together, and added a jab about voting against the tax “holiday.” Poilievre claimed that Trudeau’s “destructive” policies were a gift to Trump, and Trudeau again chided Poilievre from voting against the GST “holiday,” as well as programmes like dental care or school food. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question, and this time, Trudeau cautioned about taking too seriously the erroneous talking points the Americans have weaponised, and that it wasn’t responsible leadership. Poilievre said that his job was not to cover for Trudeau “breaking” things, and listed a bunch of non sequiturs, and Trudeau said that they were stepping up for Canadians, and again listed the things the Conservatives voted against. Poilievre dismissed the programmes, and railed about the carbon levy. Trudeau recited that the carbon rebates puts more money back in the pockets of eight out of ten Canadians.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he demanded a budgeted, detailed plan about the border. Trudeau said that they shared their immigration plan several weeks ago, and that they would continue to reduce the number of irregular migrants thanks to significant investments in staffing levels at the border. Blanchet said that they need a plan for the future, not the past, and listed other files he is concerned about, and wanted a Quebec representative in any future negotiations. Trudeau assured him that they did talk about trade, steel and aluminium, as well as softwood lumber on Friday, and that they will stand up for jobs.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, raised that Conservatives fired thousands of CBSA officers when they were in power, and wanted them all rehired, more hires on top of that, and their mandate expanded. Trudeau said that he agrees that the Conservatives only know how to cut, and listed other programmes they want to cut as well. Singh repeated the same in French, and closed with accusing Trudeau of coming back from the meeting empty-handed. Trudeau repeated that they have reinvested in the border, and have reduced the number of irregular arrivals.

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QP: Concern trolling your own filibuster

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The PM was in Laos, his deputy elsewhere, and all of the other leaders were present because Wednesday. Pierre Poilievre, fresh out of his no-speaking-for-one-day punishment, began in French, and he claimed that he would have liked to use Parliament’s time to deal with pressing issues but they’re paralysed because the prime minister has refused to turn over documents. (Seriously?!) Karina Gould said this was all false, and read the RCP’s concerns with the production order, and they could send this to committee today. Poilievre listed selective facts to make this seem more scandalous than it is, and wondered if someone steals from you whether you call the cops or send the matter to committee. This time François-Philippe Champagne recited that Canadians are tired of these games and slogans, and that they have had enough of filibustering, and that they will always protect rights and freedoms. Poilievre switched to English to retread his first concern-trolling question, and Gould reiterated that this was not true and repeated the RCMP’s statement. Poilievre again listed the selected facts, and claimed the minister’s story was changing (false), and mocked the notion that this would cause Charter rights to come cashing down. Gould said this was a typical witch-hunt to go after things that have nothing to do with the events, such as personnel files of people not implicated by events, and repeated that this should go to committee. Poilievre scoffed at the notion that this was a witch hunt, and mischaracterised the relationship between the government and SDTC. Gould said that if the police request documents, they are turned over, but this is an abuse of authority.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and worried about the Bloc’s Supply Management in the Senate. Lawrence MacAulay recited that they support Supply Management, and they are encouraging the Other Place to pass it. Blanchet railed about the two senators allegedly holding up the bill, and Marie-Claude Bibeau recited the support for Supply Management before noting they appointed independent senators, which is a concept the Bloc should understand. 

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and was incredulous with the story that “corporate landlords” are using AI to jack up rents (which is not federal jurisdiction). Sean Fraser said it was too bad the NDP decided to walk away from the government’s attempt to do something about the situation. Singh then turned to the reports that government lawyers are claiming that there is no duty to provide First Nations with water. Patty Hajdu said that they Have been fixing the mess the Conservatives left, and urged the NDP to support their safe drinking water bill.

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QP: Full of shameless slogans

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It being Wednesday, proto-PMQ day, the prime minister was present, while his deputy was elsewhere. All of the other leaders were also present, and for a second day in a row, before things could get started, a new MP was introduced to the Chamber, this time for the NDP. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he worried about a recent report on housing costs in Montreal, and demanded an election. Justin Trudeau said that slogans don’t build homes or meet Canadians’ needs, and that meant hard work, in partnership with municipalities. Poilievre took undue credit for conditions when he as “housing minister,” and made a list of false claims to demand an election. Trudeau said that the Conservative don’t really want to cut taxes because they voted against removing the GST on rentals, and didn’t have a plan. Poilievre kept going in French to denounce capital gains taxes before switched to English to demand an election. Trudeau, in both languages, said they are asking the wealthiest to pay a little more to build more housing. Poilievre claimed that New Brunswick was challenging the carbon levy in court (not actually true), and demanded an election. Trudeau pointed out that provinces have all lost at the Supreme Court when challenging the levy, and they won three elections on the carbon price. Poilievre read the bullshit from Scott Moe that the carbon levy means firing teachers and nurses, and again demanded an election. Trudeau said that Poilievre wants to abandon the fight against climate change and take away the rebates people rely on.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and claimed that the seniors minister said that the seniors groups on the Hill yesterday were separatists. Trudeau said that the government was already there for seniors, and that they weren’t interested in petty partisan games. (Well…) Blanchet note that the House of Commons, in different capacities, has voted for their OAS bill (which is ultimately not voteable) and demanded the PM bring his minster to order. Trudeau trotted the various times the Bloc vote against seniors.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and blamed the federal government for rental increases by “corporate landlords.” Trudeau noted the things the government was doing for affordable housing. Singh then worried about unsuitable housing for Indigenous people, decrying delays, and Trudeau noted the tripling of investments and that they are investing with Indigenous communities, and that they were actually delivering.

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QP: Fighting to claim who loves seniors most

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The first day back after an extended weekend, and the prime minister was in town but absent, while his deputy was there. Most of the other leaders were also away, and this was the Bloc’s Supply Day and the Conservatives were about to have the vote of their latest non-confidence motion, so that was going to set the stage for what was to come. Before things got underway the Bloc’s newest MP got introduced to the Chamber to take his seat. Speaker Fergus then gave another admonishment for MPs to behave, as though that was going to do anything.

Once things got started, Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and rattled off some slogans that claimed to be in the defence of seniors. Chrystia Freeland said that seniors remember that Stephen Harper went off to Davos to raise the age of retirement, and that they government introduced child care for the benefit of their grandchildren. Poilievre then took a swipe at the Bloc before demanding an election. Jean-Yves Duclos pointed out that Poilievre picked fights with municipalities. Poilievre switched to English to spin a tall tale about Mark Carney, calling him a walking conflict of interest. Freeland said that they are glad to get advice from former central bankers like Carney and Stephen Poloz, while the Conservatives get their advice from Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson. Poilievre then raised Blaine Higgs’ doomed promise to try and challenge the carbon levy in the courts again (who will promptly tell him to pound sand), and demanded an election. Freeland pointed out their announcement from this morning about the small business carbon levy. Poilievre then switched topics again, this time other Israel’s right to defend itself. Mélanie Joly says that they condemn Iran’s attacks, which will only further escalate the region, that she contacted her Israeli counterpart this morning and other regional counterparts, and that the war needs to stop.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and listed seniors groups on the Hill before demanding support for their OAS changes. Steve MacKinnon listed all of the measures for seniors that they voted against, saying their hypocrisy was shocking. Therrien made the demand again, pointing out it’s International Seniors Day, and MacKinnon prevaricated by wishing seniors well on this day, before returning to the his points about what the Bloc voted against.

Lori Idlout appeared by video to demand more funding for First Nations, particularly things like fire services. Patty Hajdu says they have invested $136 million for First Nations self-determined fire safety priorities. Leah Gazan demanded better healthcare access for First Nations. Hajdu says that there were $2 billion in the recent transfers earmarked for Indigenous self-determined priorities.

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Roundup: Bringing in the spouses?

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The fallout from Jagmeet Singh’s confrontation with members of the Asshole Brigade who are harassing people in front of Parliament Hill has taken a couple of strange twists. In his post about the incident, Singh said that “That’s the country that Pierre Poilievre wants,” which of course sent the Conservatives into the usual bit of performative victimhood. Among those was Michael Cooper, who was seen hanging out with some of those members of the Asshole Brigade, and he tweeted out that he didn’t know them, that they approached him at the restaurant he was eating in…but there is video that shows him meeting with them before the restaurant, so perhaps that’s a very judicious use of the truth.

The stranger part was that Anaida Poilievre wrote a long Twitter missive to rebut the accusation and to praise Poilievre’s good character, while taking shots at Singh and Justin Trudeau. There has been a long-held convention in Canadian politics that spouses stay out of things, and they get a semblance of anonymity as a result. The fact that she has been very active in Poilievre’s campaign is a sign that she could be much more active in a future where Poilievre becomes prime minister, and that’s a bit of a problem because we don’t have “First Ladies” in this county like the Americans do, because our “First Lady” is Queen Camila. If she plays an active role, does she then become a target for other parties? Does that open up attacks for their spouses? I worry about that given the coarsening of politics as it is, and the fact that far too many people are already targeting MPs’ homes as part of protests. We don’t need them to become fair game as things continue to race to the bottom.

https://x.com/AnaPoilievre/status/1836225640938508466

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian shelling in Zaporizhzhia killed one woman and injured two others, while another attack targeted energy facilities in the central city of Kropyvnytskyi. Ukrainian drones have struck a Russian military base north of Moscow, causing an “earthquake-sized” blast. President Zelenskyy will be addressing the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday.

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Roundup: Two percent ahead of schedule

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The big news yesterday was that according to August data, headline inflation returned to the Bank of Canada’s target of 2.0 percent, well ahead of schedule. It’ll bounce around for a while as the economy continues to rebalance, but it’s a sign that the Bank has essentially stuck the soft-landing. And before you repeat the Andrew Scheer line of “People are going to food banks, you call that a soft landing?” the answer is that the alternative was a recession, so yeah, this definitely beats that.

Things are still uneven, and yes, housing costs continue to drive much of the current inflation, and gasoline prices are a big reason why it fell as much as it did in August, so those will bounce around some more. Food is still running a little bit above headline, but nowhere near what it was before because supply chains have evened out, prices have stabilized from supply shocks (driven by climate change and the invasion of Ukraine), but seasonal price changes are also having an impact. (More from Trevor Tombe in this thread).

https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1836026950281744434

Meanwhile, I have seen zero discussion about how everything that Pierre Poilievre has claimed was causing inflation—deficit spending, the carbon levy, and so on—has all been proven false, to say nothing about the comparison between us and the US in terms of deficits and economic performance. Oh, but then they may have to actually point out that he’s lying, and they don’t want to do that. Not to mention, this is Canadian journalism, and we don’t like to actually talk to economists to understand what’s going on, we only need them to assist in both-sidesing bullshit talking points from the parties that paint a picture of doom (because there is “no such thing as a good-news economic story”). Is it any wonder Canadians have such a distorted view of the economy?

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians have once again targeted energy faculties in Sumy region, while shelling in Zaporizhzhia, has killed two people. Russians claim that they have captured the town of Ukrainsk in the eastern Donbas region.

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QP: Did you hear the good news about inflation?

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The prime minister had initially indicated that the would be present, but when the time came, he was not. His deputy was present for a second day in a row, in the wake of the by-election losses, but also in the wake of the news that the inflation headline figure has returned to target, and which I fully expected the Liberals to be insufferable about. All of the other leaders were present, unlike yesterday, and Pierre Poilievre led off in French, raised the by-election losses, falsely called the federal government as having been responsible for the largest expansion of government in history, and wondered how the Bloc could support them—which really wasn’t a question for government. Chrystia Freeland got up to praise the inflation numbers, as expected. Poilievre dismissed this as cold comfort for people, and again asked why the Bloc supports them (which is not a question for government), and Freeland again praised the inflation numbers while calling Poilievre economically incompetent. Poilievre switched to English to again raise the by-election losses and recited his slogans. Freeland repeated her good news talking points in English. Poilievre again called this cold comfort, called Freeland incompetent, and raised the fictitious “second carbon tax” as taking a huge hit on the economy. Freeland insisted that the inflation news was good news for Canadians and bad news for the Conservatives. Poilievre repeated his fiction of the “second carbon tax,” which is not a Thing, and demanded an election. Freeland recited good news talking points about housing, repeating the announcement she made yesterday on mortgage amortization.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and first addressed to Poilievre that they got fourth place in LaSalle—Émard, before demanding support for their bill on expanding pensions for seniors under age 75. Freeland recited talking points about supports they have added for seniors, particularly those most vulnerable. Blanched again demanded a royal recommendation for the Bloc bill, and Freeland would not indicate support for that bill.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP and declared the Liberals “done,” then demanded price caps on certain groceries. Freeland hoped that they would set partisanship aside in order to congratulate Canadians for getting inflation back under control, before noting they have increased taxes on corporations. Singh switched to French to repeat his same declaration before demanding and end to “real estate giants” ripping people off. Freeland scoffed at the notion that the Liberals are teaming up with the Conservatives (earned Conservatives applause) and then slammed the Conservatives. 

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Roundup: Grossly distorting crime stats

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Pierre Poilievre has been putting out a series of charts lately to “prove” that the Justin Trudeau-led government has been an apocalyptic disaster for the country, and one of them has bene around violent crime statistics. But because this is Poilievre, he takes those statistics and distorts them to create a monstrous picture that doesn’t actually reflect reality, as Amarnath Amarasingam explains:

This is classic Poilievre, incidentally. He has made a career out of cherry-picking a single data point, then building a massive, misleading narrative around it and when you call him on the lie, he insists that that data came from Statistics Canada, or the PBO, or wherever. In other words, he tries to use their legitimacy to launder his disinformation, and provide him with intellectual cover when clearly he either did not understand what the data was, or he simply took the information and constructed a false narrative (and I have my particular suspicion about which one it is). What is even more dangerous about these kinds of distortions is that they are being mixed with a big dose of racism among Poilievre’s online base, who are blaming immigrants for this supposed “spike” in crime (which is not a spike), and this could lead to some very bad outcomes.

For another example, we have the real household income figures from 2022, which he has also utterly distorted because of course he has. And has any legacy media outlet called any of this out? Of course not. Meanwhile, this has never been about logic or facts, or reasoned arguments—it’s about lies that make people angry so that they vote emotionally, which he thinks will benefit him (and that those lies won’t blow up in his face when he can’t deliver on his false promises). Depending on lies is a very bad strategy in the medium-to-long term, but here we are, swimming in them.

Ukraine Dispatch

Even though Ukrainian forces shot down three missiles and 25 out of 26 drones, an energy facility in the Sumy region was hit, and fire broke out. A fourteen-year-old died when a Russian struck near a playground in Zaporizhzhia. Russia has been making an aggressive push in the east, claiming the towns of Zalizne and Niu-York. Ukraine is reported to have launched a drone attack on Moscow with at least ten drones, while a diesel depot on the Rostov region was set on firefrom a Ukrainian drone strike. Russian forces have confirmed that Ukrainian forces have damaged or destroyed all three bridges over the Seym River, which could trap Russian units caught between the river, the Ukrainian advance, and the Ukrainian border.

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