Tag Archives: Housing

Roundup: Duelling tax cut offers

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Day two of the campaign, and the first full day of campaigning. Mark Carney began in Gander, Newfoundland and Labrador, where he played up the Canadiana and the fact that Gander hosted passengers from aircraft stranded on 9/11 (which became the basis for the musical “Come from Away.” This was part of his appeal to Canadian values in the face of Trump and the trade war, before he jetted off to Halifax. (Day one recap here, and more about the fishers protesting his speech.). Carney also released a second, more earnest ad with Mike Myers, who officially endorsed him in it. Carney also added that he hasn’t spoken to Trump yet, but he suspects Trump is waiting until after the election to call.

Pierre Poilievre was still in the Greater Toronto Area, where he had pledged his own, larger income tax cut, and gave a faux assurance that it would be paid for with “cuts to bureaucracy, consultants, and foreign aid.” (Yeah, that’s not going to get you the money for this kind of a tax cut, it will absolutely disproportionately benefit the wealthy, and you can bet that social programmes will be on the chopping block). He also regaled the crowd with a stupid meme tale about telling a child that income tax is a “punishment for doing well,” rather than the entry fee for civilization. Because Poilievre is fundamentally an anti-government conservative (in spite of having spent his entire life in public office). (Day one recap here).

The NDP started off in Montreal, where he promised to set aside even more public land for rent-controlled homes, but didn’t exactly spell out how this would be different than what the federal government is already doing about leasing public lands (nor did he address the fact that a lot of that “government-owned land” are actually contaminated sites). He also took some jabs at a punching bag in an outdoor gym—because he’s spent the last few weeks trying to burnish a tough-guy image—before the bus went down the 401 to Toronto. (Day one recap here). He’ll spend much of the day there today, before heading to Hamilton later afternoon.

Given the two promises around tax cuts, here are some analyses of what it might mean, once we get more details. Economists, however, are pretty sceptical thus far that the maths are going to work out for these cuts.

The Leadership Debates Commission announced the dates for the two official “consortium” debates as April 16th and 17thin Montreal, French first, then English, each with a single moderator after the complete gong show of the previous two election cycles. There will not be a TVA “face-à-face” debate this time, as they planned to charge the leaders $75,000 each to “offset costs,” and the Liberals balked, so it won’t go ahead. The other campaigns are trying to say Carney was too afraid of a second French debate, but charging the parties to hold it was a very, very bad precedent, and it’s probably for the best that it wasn’t’ allowed to take hold.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian missiles hit a densely-populated part of Sumy, wounding 88 people, while there were further air attacks on Kyiv, wounding one and damaging houses. A Russian cyberattack also hit Ukraine’s state railway service, adding to the chaos of the situation.

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Roundup: Unrealistic Ring of Fire promises

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Pierre Poilievre was in Sudbury to pronounce that if he forms government, he’ll set a deadline of six months to approve any federal permits for mining in the “Ring of Fire” region in Northern Ontario, and put $1 billion toward connecting roads in the region to the highway network (to be paid for by cuts elsewhere). Absent from his pronouncement? Any representatives of the First Nations in the region, for whom consultation and cooperation is necessary (and yes, most of the First Nations in the region were not thrilled when they heard this). Poilievre says that there aren’t shovels in the ground because the Liberals have a “keep it in the ground” mentality, which is hard to square with the fact that they have been moving ahead on plenty of other critical mineral projects that are better connected to existing infrastructure, the pipeline they bought to get oil to tidewater, and the fact that oil and gas production are at record highs. So much keeping it in the ground! He also didn’t learn a single gods damned lesson from the Harper years, where trying to slash the review process for big projects only meant that they wound up in litigation.

Meanwhile, a group of energy sector CEOs are demanding that, because of the trade war, the federal government use “emergency powers” to approve more resource (mostly oil and gas) projects, which seems hard to square with the fact that a) there isn’t much in the way of emergency powers that could be deployed, let alone that could affect provincially-regulated projects; b) that they are vague on the market for these products if they’re not going the US, particularly as there is little in the way of cross-country pipeline infrastructure or the fact that the East Coast isn’t going to want to pay a premium for western Canadian oil; or c) the changing energy market means that they seem to be advocating to build a bunch of assets that would be stranded before too long. As this is going on, Danielle Smith is trying to pass yet more unconstitutional/useless legislation to prevent the federal government from acquiring oil companies’ data for their planned emissions cap, because yes, everything is that stupid.

On a related note, you have farmers and Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe urging capitulation to China in order for them to lift their canola tariffs, which were placed in retaliation for the EV tariffs (which in turn were done at the Americans’ behest under Biden in order to protect the EV industry they were trying to build from Chinese dumping). Well, China just executed four Canadian dual-nationals on drug-related charges, in spite of pleas by the Canadian government for clemency. It’s a message that they’re not looking to seek our favour in spite of the fact that Trump has turned against us (and his other allies). Caving to China on this canola issue is not going to work out well in the long term, because they know this is a pressure point that they can exploit. They have exploited it in the past, and it’s why they’re doing so again, and if we cave again, they’ll just move the goal posts and make more demands of Canada that will be harder and harder to resist.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia claims that Ukraine is trying to sabotage the moratorium on striking each other’s’ energy facilities after a drone strike on an oil depot. Ukraine also attacked an airfield near a Russian strategic bomber base in southern Russia. Russia and Ukraine each swapped 175 prisoners, one of the largest exchanges to date.

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Roundup: Tantrums, and Ford capitulates

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The day started off with a tantrum—Donald Trump screaming that Ontario wasn’t allowed to put the “surcharge” on their electricity exports, and said he was going to make Canada pay dearly, and then threatened to ramp up the incoming steel and aluminium tariffs to 50 percent. That caused another huge panic, and by the end of the day, Doug Ford had secured a meeting with Howard Lutnick (apparently with Dominic LeBlanc), and suspended the “surcharge,” while Trump decided that the global steel and aluminium tariffs were still coming, but only at 25 percent, and those are now in effect. And that in turn will trigger more retaliatory tariffs from the Canadian federal government. Trump also went on an extended rant about annexation, but flattered Ford in the process, which made me want to throw up a little.

Guys, I’m just so tired.

I scarcely know where to begin. The regulations for that “surcharge” were released, and it reads very much like a cute attempt to pretend that they’re not tariffs for the sake of international trade, so that he can pretend this is provincial jurisdiction and not federal. After two days of bluster and going on every cable news show in the US insisting he wasn’t going to back down on this “surcharge” until the tariffs were gone, and that he was going to go even further, it took one phone call with Lutnik and Ford capitulated right as the global steel and aluminium tariffs were coming into place, so how exactly did he help Ontario or anyone? I’m at a loss. He’s also pretending that he has a role in international negotiations, neglecting in his tweet to mention that Dominic LeBlanc will be at the table with Lutnik, but on top of that, you think you’re actually going to be negotiating a renewed NAFTA? Really? Given that Trump has proven that any agreement he signs isn’t worth the paper it’s written on because he only operates in bad faith? And you still want to go ahead with this farce?

Meanwhile, Poilievre demanded 50 percent retaliatory tariffs if the steel and aluminium tariffs went to 50 percent, Jagmeet Singh continues to demand that Parliament be summoned to pass a package of aid for workers before the election, and Elizabeth May wants a “wartime Cabinet,” and I just can’t because it misunderstands what actually happened during the First World War. Also, Alberta’s energy minister Brian Jean thinks he’s an international negotiator too. And hey, here’s a plausible explanation for Trump’s constant tariff chaos—because affected CEOs have to pay millions to see him at Mar-a-Lago to plead their case, and he’s making a lot of money that way.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine downed a ballistic missile and 70 out of 126 drones in Monday night’s attack, while Russia claims they are making progress in reclaiming Kursk region. Ukrainian drones struck two more Russian oil facilities, with explosions recorded. The US says they are resuming military aid and intelligence sharing after Ukraine said they were willing to sign onto a ceasefire proposal, but Russia has not agreed yet (and won’t agree because they don’t want a ceasefire). AP has a selection of photos from the war.

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Roundup: Starmer sputters instead of speaking up

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UK prime minister Keir Starmer visited the White House yesterday, and a couple of bizarre scenes erupted. One was that he presented an invitation from King Charles for Trump to make a second state visit to the UK, which way too many people took as a personal invitation rather than one at the behest of the government—because the King does not act unilaterally, and does not make state visit invitations on his own. Later, when Starmer was asked about the annexation threats, Stamer didn’t stand up for Canada, but sputtered about there being no divisions before Trump cut him off with a sharp “That’s enough.” And worse, when Starmer was asked by a journalist if the King had anything to say about the annexation threats, Starmer said that he can’t say what the King’s opinions are and that he’ll let them be known in his own way.

*seethes*

On the one hand, Starmer is sucking up to Trump to avoid being tariffed, which probably won’t work, but I get his self-interest here, but it’s nevertheless a sign of the shifting global order and a sense of who our allies really are. (Thus far, only Germany has expressly said that they have Canada’s back). On the other hand, the fact that reporters are trying to drag the King into this is wildly inappropriate, and I’m not sure whether that’s because American journalists cannot grasp what a constitutional monarchy is (seriously, it makes their brains melt), but the fact that so many people in this country who should know how constitutional monarchy works because we are one, are rising to take the bait and are raging about how the King is supposedly “betraying” us is really disheartening because it’s a reflection of just how poor our civics education is, and how ignorant our own media are about how the very basic rules of our system of government operate.

The King does not freelance, he does not say things without advice, and his governments do not drag him into their fights because the first rule of constitutional monarchy is that you DO NOT involve the King. Starmer should have given a better answer in both cases, and Canadians following along shouldn’t take the bait.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians launched air attacks on energy sites in the Kharkiv region. Ukraine’s top army commander visited sites on the front lines in eastern Donetsk region.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1895048627690656241

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Roundup: Don’t complain to the minister

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There was a whole lot of online anger over the weekend directed at CBC Radio’s Cross Country Checkup, as the topic was the whole American annexation talk, and they decided to co-broadcast this with an NPR in the US, and treated the whole thing like a though experiment when it’s our sovereignty we’re discussing. It’s not a cute thought experiment, and it’s not

https://twitter.com/HNHughson/status/1893684327973539938

While I did not personally listen, I have been informed that the topic was framed around the notion that this would be some sort of democratic process, which is not the threat, and then they invited Kevin O’Leary on to give his take, and not only didn’t bother to actually push back or fact-check anything he said, but Ian Hanomansing invited people do to their own fact-checking online after the show. Are you fucking kidding me? That’s supposed to be your job as journalists. But seriously. Kevin O’Leary. You know he has nothing of value to offer but bluster. This was a deliberate choice by producers to crank up the “controversy,” which was both irresponsible and a dereliction of duty. Just an absolute gods damned catastrophe. It’s not that we shouldn’t be talking about the threat of annexation or that Trump promises to wage economic warfare on us to turn us into a vassal state—it’s that we need to frame these discussions in a clear-eyed way, not whatever this bullshit that Hanomansing and company were doing.

To make matters worse, a bunch of people have decided to complain to the minister about this.

No. Absolutely not.

CBC may be a public broadcaster, but it is run arm’s-length from government, because it’s not a state broadcaster (regardless of what Conservative chuds like to claim). The minister has no say and should have no say in this. If you want to complain, talk to the CBC ombudsman, or the head of CBC news, but you DO NOT complain to the minister about it. That’s about as wrong as writing to the King to complain, and will get you the same form-letter response.

https://bsky.app/profile/senatorpaulasimons.bsky.social/post/3livb5f6oj22e

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched guided bomb attacks overnight Friday, killing one woman in Kostiantynivka, and then launched their largest drone attack yet overnight Saturday, with 267 drones fired, along with missiles. At least one person died as a result of a strike in Kryvyi Rih in that attack. North Korea is providing as much as half of Russia’s ammunition against Ukraine by this point. The US tried to force Ukraine to withdraw their UN resolution condemning Russia on the third anniversary of the invasion, in favour of an American resolution that soft-pedals the whole thing. (Ukraine would not). Zelenskyy said that he would be willing to step down if it meant a proper peace deal that includes NATO membership, and rejected Trump’s demands for $500 billion in “payback.”

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Roundup post: Expediting a dubious legal challenge

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On Saturday, the Federal Court ruled that they would hear an expedited case on the legal challenge of the granting of prorogation, citing the “critical” nature of the Trump tariff threats, and that this somehow requires the legislative branch of Parliament to be operating when in fact it does not.

Part of the problem is that the UK Supreme Court did overturn a prorogation when Boris Johnson requested it in the lead-up to Brexit, which led a bunch of bad actors in this country to decide they could use that precedent to challenge its use here, never mind that prorogations function slightly different in the UK (there, it tends to be an annual affair, separating shorter legislative sessions, which is not how it has operated here in many decades). There should be no reason why that precedent should apply in Canada at all, let alone in this particular circumstance, but we are dealing with people grasping at legal straws because they want to be able to run to the courts when they lose at politics, which is a Very Bad Thing for democracy and our entire constitutional order.

More to the point, nothing was happening in Parliament before the prorogation because of the filibuster, and everyone was threatening non-confidence when it did resume in January, so an election wouldn’t provide Parliament any ability to “meaningfully debate” the Trump tariffs then either. These arguments are specious, and I trust the judge will throw them out of court once the hearings happen, but unfortunately, these are not normal times, and we could be in for a very bad result if government lawyers can’t argue their case well enough.

Ukraine Dispatch

An overnight missile and drone strike killed six, including three in Kyiv. Russia claims to have captured two more settlements between Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. Ukrainian forces claim a pair of attacks on oil depots in Russia’s Kaluga and Tula regions.

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QP: Fantasizing about a “collapsing” economy

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Wednesday, the final proto-PMQ of the year, and the prime minister was indeed present and ready to respond to all questions put to him, while his deputy was elsewhere. All of the other leaders were also present today, and Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and again cited the Globe and Mail story about the supposed tensions between Freeland and Trudeau over the size of the deficit, and demanded to know why he pushed her to break her promise on capping it. Justin Trudeau said that Poilievre was dramatizing things to distract from his voting against programmes that help people, and that he muzzles his MPs to prevent them from speaking out for their communities, or get his security clearance. Poilievre again demanded to know why Trudeau forced his finance minister to break her promise and Trudeau responded with a list of things Poilievre voted against. Poilievre switched to English and repeated his first question on the Globe story, and Trudeau once again called these little “dramas” a distraction from his record of voting against supports for Canadians or refusing to get his security clearance. Poilievre accused a Trudeau of bullying Freeland, said that he is too weak to control his own caucus, and then Poilievre proclaimed that he leads by inspiration and that Trudeau leads by intimidation. Trudeau said that Poilievre likes to claim things are broken because he keeps breaking them. Poilievre  mocked this, and then claimed that Freeland was going to be humiliated by reading a fiscal update authored by Mark Carney, and Trudeau accused Poilievre of using Canadians’ struggles for his own gain but that he won’t lift a finger to help them.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, complained about a committee study, and wondered what the PM would say to the thousands of Muslims who are happy to assimilate into Quebec. Trudeau praised diversity and rights. Blanchet then wondered if Trudeau was defending religious “indoctrination” at certain Quebec schools, to which Trudeau praised the Charter, and then said it was the responsibility of those schools to hire the best teachers they could.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, said that Trump was a bully and that Trudeau was too weak to stand up to him. Trudeau said that they were taking a measured approach, working with leaders across the country, and were not freaking out like the NDP were. Singh exclaimed that Trudeau’s job wasn’t safe either, and then repeated the same question/demand in French. Trudeau reminded him that they defeated Trump tariffs in the past.

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QP: Pouncing on alleged tensions between PMO and Finance

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Both the PM and his deputy were present for QP today, in advance of the Supplementary Estimates, as were all of the other leaders. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and cited the “weak” prime minister who has lost control of everything, and that he has now lost control of his finance minister, who wanted a big deficit but that Trudeau wanted an even bigger one, and wondered which of them would win. Trudeau said that when a government delivers dental care to seniors, or food to children’s schools, Canadians win, but they won’t if the Conservatives come to power. Poilievre insisted that his finance minister doesn’t agree and that he imposed the “inflationary” GST “holiday” plan on her. Trudeau said that the only one voting against Canadians is the leader of the opposition. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question and got much the same response, with a few added jabs that Poilievre was against growing the economy. Poilievre again quoted the Globe and Mail article from this morning, and wondered if they would meet their deficit target. Trudeau accused Poilievre of talking down Canada, while the Bank of Canada would likely cut rates again this week because inflation is on target, and then took another swipe at Poilievre controlling his caucus. Poilievre gave a tortured analogy about the finance minister driving a bus while a “lunatic” grabs control of the wheel, jerks it to the left and smashes through a guardrail down a cliff, Trudeau responded with a paean about the supports they have given Canadians, which Poilievre voted against.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and wanted the PM to denounce his immigration minister for calling out François Legault for attacking Muslims in the name of “secularism” while going to Notre Dame in Paris, to which Trudeau gave a rote line about Charter rights and diversity. Blanchet gave a torture definition of what equality means, and Trudeau reminds him that they should cherish individual rights and freedoms, and that the federal government will defend those rights.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and accused the government of siding with the Conservatives in voting against their GST cut proposal, and Trudeau said he was equally puzzled when the Conservatives voted against a tax break for Canadians—but didn’t say anything about the NDP’s plan (which was bad and disproportionately benefits the wealthy). Singh made a half-hearted jab about taxing (or axing?) the prime minister’s excuses, before switching to French to worry about private healthcare in Quebec. Trudeau said that they respect provincial jurisdiction but they have also invested billions in healthcare across the country and would defend the public system.

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QP: More swipes before a confidence vote

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The PM was away in Halifax, and his deputy was elsewhere, and most of the other leaders were also away. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he accused the prime minister of a litany of economic sins, and demanded he stop raising taxes and “inflationary” spending. Arif Virani said that they were proud of their record and that the Fall Economic Statement would be released on Monday, and praised that inflation as on target and that interest rates have come down. Poilievre mocked that the government wants to bury their record, and wondered if the deficit would remain under target. Jonathan Wilkinson praised the GST cut on purpose-built rentals, and that they are building more houses than ever before. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question, and Virani got back up, but this time praised how their childcare programme has seen one of the largest rates of female participation in the labour force. Poilievre lied about debt causing inflation (ignoring the pandemic and the global supply shock), and again asked about the deficit target. Virani cited current and former Bank of Canada governors about the current inflation spike being tamed and how Harper muted the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis by cutting too quickly. Poilievre then said that in the spirit of non-partisanship, they took Jagmeet Singh’s words and put them in a non-confidence motion, and wondered if the prime minister was going to let the NDP to vote for the motion. The Speaker warned that this stretched what was permissible under the administration of government, but Karina Gould got up to point out that it was the Conservatives who muzzled their members.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and raised concerns about religion in schools in Quebec, and demanded the federal government stop “undermining” secularism in Quebec. Jean-Yves Duclos reminded him that education was a provincial matter. Therrien insisted that multiculturalism is what is undermining the ability to live together, and Duclos noted that there is strength in diversity before returning to the reminder that education is a provincial matter.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP to give an anecdote of the plight of a retiree in relation to the demand to extend the $250 “rebate” cheque. Virani got back up to pat himself on the back for their other programmes for seniors, including dental care. Singh retorted that Virani didn’t answer the question, before repeating it he demand in French. Virani said that they always fight against poverty, and the data shows progress.

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QP: Avoiding questions about the deficit

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After a morning where the Conservatives were on the losing end of procedural warfare with their planned confidence vote debate, neither the PM nor his deputy were present today, nor were any of the other leaders. Jasraj Hallan led off, spouted nonsense about the deficit and inflation, and demanded to know the size of the deficit. Sean Fraser responded by praising the country’s growth projections, and that the Conservatives voted against measures to help people. Hallan listed things that were “broken,” and Fraser chided him for his alliteration before again pointing out the things the Conservatives have voted against. Hallan again demanded the deficit number, and this time Jenna Sudds rose to point out how many more children were in poverty when the Conservatives were in power before listing programmes the government rolled out. Luc Berthold took over in French, and demanded the Fall Economic Statement be delivered on Monday. Steven Guilbeault took this one and decried that the Conservatives voted against the GST “holiday.” Berthold then quoted the “Food Professor” on food prices and blamed the carbon price, and Guilbeault quoted said professor back again in saying that climate change is responsible for food prices. 

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and railed about the Senate dragging out the vote on their Supply Management bill, to which Karina Gould reminded him that the government supported the bill, but the Conservatives were divided on it. Therrien railed some more about senators, and Gould again repeated her response. 

Peter Julian rose for the NDP, and decried grocery giant greed in French. Guilbeault again praised the GST “holiday.” Alistair MacGregor decried the same in English, and Fraser praised their school food programme and the GST “holiday.”

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