Roundup: A more comprehensive justice package

Day nineteen, and the weird pace of this campaign was back again as there wasn’t a fresh Trump eruption to steal the spotlight. Mark Carney was in Brampton, and delivered his party’s big justice plan, which was pretty comprehensive, and contained a lot of different parts—doubling down on gun buybacks and classifications, training more RCMP and CBSA officers, and hiring more Crown prosecutors, tougher sentencing guidelines (not mandatory minimums), claims for tougher bail conditions (which is where they start getting into trouble), and more on online luring and even criminal prohibitions around deepfake nudes. Carney will be back in Ottawa with his prime minister hat on today to meet with the Canada-US Cabinet Committee (while Michael Chong howls that this is abusing the Caretaker Convention, which is not how that works).

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Pierre Poilievre was in Milton, Ontario, and proposed a scheme where municipalities lower development charges or other taxes on new homes, and a Conservative government would reimburse 50 percent of those cuts up to a maximum threshold. Poilievre was also asked about the “I Don’t Believe The Polls” crowd that has been at his rallies (and whom he has sought out to take photos with), and sort of distanced himself from them saying he would respect the election outcome, but also didn’t say whether he trusts those polls. Poilievre opens his day in St. Catharines, Ontario, and ends it in Windsor.

Jagmeet Singh was in Saskatoon, and he warned that Mark Carney was planning major cuts over the next three years, and produced a document to show the cost of those cuts—based entirely on speculation. He also made a big deal about releasing a new campaign video that called for as many NDP MPs to be elected as possible to ensure the Liberals don’t cut everything, which is achingly desperate. Singh is also in Ottawa today to address the Broadbent Institute’s Progress Summit, rallying the troops.

In other campaign news, both Carney and Singh have had interviews with Nardwuar in Vancouver, and done the hip flip.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone hit an apartment building in Zhytomyr region, killing one person. There was a missile strike in Dnipro that killed one, and drone attacks on Kyiv and Mykolaiv, injuring at least twelve. Russia claims to have captured a village in Sumy region. The Chinese foreign ministry accused president Zelenskyy of being “irresponsible” by pointing out that over 150 Chinese nationals are fighting for Russia on Ukrainian soil.

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Roundup: Double the campaign announcements

Day sixteen, and suddenly each of the parties was doubling up on their news releases today, each announcing not one but two different policy planks, because apparently, we were a little too comfortable already.

Mark Carney was in Victoria, where the first announcement was about protecting retirement savings through reducing the minimum amounts that need to be withdrawn from an RRIF for a year, as well as a temporary increase of the GIS. Later, but still in Victoria, Carney spoke about conservation efforts by pledging new national parks and marine protected environments, bolstered Indigenous stewardship, and nature-based climate solutions. Carney also insisted that he’s prepared and has a plan to deal with the market chaos that Trump has unleashed. Carney also met with BC premier David Eby to talk about the softwood tariffs that Trump plans on increasing. Carney will start the day in Delta, BC, and head to Calgary later in the day.

Pierre Poilievre was in Terrace, BC, and declared that he will create a single office for resource projects, with one application, and a maximum one-year timeframe for approvals (which raises all kinds of question about provincial jurisdiction, and the complexity of projects). He even listed projects as examples that…already have their approvals but the market hasn’t bought into the projects, which should raise even more questions about whether he has a clue about what he’s talking about, other than “oil project good.” Poilievre later said he would delay the age by which seniors need to withdraw their savings from their RRSPs. Poilievre will start the day in Edmonton, and then head for Sault Ste. Marie later today.

Jagmeet Singh was in Toronto, and used the demise of Hudson’s Bay Company to tout more protections for workers during bankruptcies, and to keep “predatory” foreign private equity funds at bay. Later in the day, he promised that he could build three million homes by 2030, and good luck with that given just how few details their plan contains for such a complex, multi-jurisdictional problem. Singh will be in Vancouver this morning, followed by his home riding in Burnaby (where apparently his seat is under threat, if polls are to be believed).

In other campaign news, the Longest Ballot jackasses have targeted Poilievre’s riding, making his Liberal rival’s job all that much harder. And nominations are now closed, so here is a look at some of the familiar names that will be on ballots.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia continues to claim that Ukraine is targeting its power stations in spite of the “energy ceasefire.” Funerals were held in Kryvyi Rih for those killed in Friday night’s attack. President Zelenskyy confirmed that there are Ukrainian troops in Russia’s Belgorod region.

 

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Roundup: Recovery and rent control

Day fifteen, and not every campaign was busy today. Mark Carney was quiet in the early part of the day, where he had a call with UK prime minister Keir Starmer, but was in Victoria in the evening, where he started the western leg of his tour by holding a rally. Carney will remain in Victoria in the morning, and head to Richmond, BC, later in the day.

Pierre Poilievre was in New Westminster, BC, and he promised funding for 50,000 more addiction recoveries (so I’m not sure how that translates to spaces), and said that “drug dens” (aka safe consumption sites) be forbidden from within metres of a laundry list of places, as though the people consuming on the streets care about that prohibition. Poilievre will start the day in Terrace, BC, and end the day with a rally in Edmonton.

Jagmeet Singh was in Halifax, and promised to use federal spending powers to bring in national rent control, which is 100 percent provincial jurisdiction, which they want to get around by essentially saying he would withhold federal housing money unless they brought it in (and it’s all about “corporate landlords,” but never about private ones being a problem, which many of them are). They also once again tried to trot out Ruth-Ellen Brosseau as a “star” candidate, never mind that it didn’t work the last time, and is unlikely to again this time. Singh plans to be in Toronto today.

In other campaign news, it’s the cut-off day for nominations today, and some parties are scrambling to get names on ballots. Here’s a look at how Singh has abandoned the message about becoming prime minister in favour of just trying to elect as many NDP MPs as possible, and another look at how much the campaign has been struggling since the beginning.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian troops are pushing into Ukraine’s Sumy region in the northeast.

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Roundup: Another plan to save the CBC

Day thirteen, and the campaigns were trying to get back to a message that wasn’t trade war-related, for what that’s worth in the current moment we’re in. Mark Carney was in Montreal, where he promised to protect CBC/Radio-Canada though a more accountable governance structure and more funding directed to local coverage, and to protect it by enshrining its funding in legislation…except that you can’t bind future governments by statute, and yes, the Supreme Court of Canada has said so. He also downplayed Preston Manning’s crybaby separatism comments, and reminded reporters of his western credentials. Carney will be in Oakville and Toronto today.

Pierre Poilievre was in Trois-Rivières, Quebec, to propose tougher bail conditions and sentencing for intimate partner violence (which is something to tackle! But sentencing is not the only solution). The Conservatives didn’t send out a notice as to where Poilievre would be today.

Jagmeet Singh was in Montreal to pronounce that they would crack down harder on offshore tax evasion, with some digs about Brookfield as though Carney was making all of its decisions (because apparently the NDP need to learn how corporate boards operate). They also promised they would tear up tax treaties with havens like Bermuda…except those treaties are vital for information sharing used to combat tax evasion. Because apparently the NDP really thought through that policy. Singh will be in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador this morning, and then off to Halifax for the evening.

In other campaign news, here is what we heard from the Radio-Canada “Five leaders” interviews, and how Poilievre is starting to moderate a few of his positions including on things like the digital services tax.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian attack on a residential area of Kryvyi Rih killed nineteen people including nine children, and yet they claimed they were targeting “gathering military,” which is obvious disinformation. Germany is funding Eutelsat to provide Ukraine an alternative to Starlink, with the hopes of sending between 5,000 and 10,000 terminals within weeks.

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Roundup: Retaliatory tariffs on American non-compliant cars

Day twelve, meaning we’re about a third of the way through, and so much of the day was all about the fallout of Wednesday’s tariff announcement. Mark Carney was in Ottawa where he had yet another virtual meeting with the premiers before meeting with the media. There, he said that the era of trade where America leads is over is over, that Trump’s actions will rupture the global economy as it has been since the end of World War II, and that while this is a tragedy, it’s the new reality. Canada’s response is a matching 25 percent tariff on vehicles from non-CUSMA-compliant vehicles coming from the United States, but not on auto parts, where the proceeds would go back to the auto workers. Carney will start the day in Montreal, before heading to Woodbridge, Ontario, and then Scarborough.

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Pierre Poilievre was in Kingston, where he promised to remove the GST on Canadian-made vehicles (which the NDP initially proposed), and a fund to help keep workers stay on the job in affected industries. It is also noteworthy that Poilievre distanced himself from Danielle Smith and Preston Manning’s crybaby separatism comments, saying that they need to unite the country. Poilievre will be Trois-Rivières, Quebec, today.

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Jagmeet Singh was in Ottawa to propose the creation of Victory Bonds to fund public infrastructure, in addition to reannouncing his previous protectionist plans. Singh will be in Montreal again today.

In other campaign news, Carney said that legislation to protect Supply Management was unnecessary (which is true, but also because you can’t bind a future government so you’re just wasting everyone’s time). Poilievre insisted that their willingness to dump candidates (so far) shows that they’re different from the Liberals (which is a specious argument before the cut-off date).

Ukraine Dispatch

Hundreds of Ukrainian troops are allegedly holed up in a monastery as Russian troops try to drive them from Kursk region. President Zelenskyy visited the neighbouring Sumy region yesterday. Ukraine appears to have resolved some of its manpower challenges.

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Roundup: Chiang overshadows the day

Day nine, and in spite of the big plans that some of the leaders were trying to put forward, the issue of Paul Chiang loomed over everything. Mark Carney was in Vaughan, Ontario, and pitched a very bold plan to stand up a new Build Canada Homes organization, which would see the federal government take charge of building houses, with a goal of reaching 500,000 new homes per year, and using the market power to stand up a pre-fabrication industry that would have the certainty that these orders are coming in. (They also had to quietly change the French name of the proposed organisation after the initial version was grammatically incorrect). He also promised a number of things around development charges and permitting that are not within federal jurisdiction, so questions remain as to how he expects to reach those goals. Carney will be in Winnipeg today.

Pierre Poilievre was in Fredericton, New Brunswick, pitching a national energy corridor, without saying how he plans to actually achieve it over the provinces and First Nations. (Yes, Carney talked about this with the premiers, but there have been no details yet). When asked about the mounting frustration within the campaign, Poilievre avoided answering the question, but defended his platform under the rubric that the Liberals weakened the country. Poilievre will be in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador this morning, and hold a rally in Borden-Carleton, PEI, in the evening.

Jagmeet Singh was in Victoria, and promoted energy retrofits that would create “good union jobs,” which continues to feel hopelessly behind the curve. We also saw Singh’s messaging strategy start to shift as well, insisting that electing more NDP MPs mean more people fighting for the “little guy” in negotiations around the future of the country and yeah, I’m not sure that’s not quite how it works. Singh remains in Edmonton today.

In other campaign news, here’s a comparison of how the party leaders are each dealing with the Trump threats, and how that is reflected in their policies. On the Paul Chiang question, Carney said that he spoke with Chiang and that he still has his confidence, which raises big questions about Carney’s political judgment. Chiang posted that he had resigned as candidate around midnight, which takes the issue off the table, but leaves the questions around Carney’s judgment hanging in the air.

Ukraine Dispatch

President Zelenskyy says that Russia has committed over 183,000 war crimes in Ukraine since the start of their invasion, and that they need to be punished for it.

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Roundup: Meeting the local volunteers

Day seven of the campaign, and it was a quieter day, but things were still happening. It also looks like, despite previous campaigns usually having quieter Sundays for the parties to regroup, to let reporters swap in and out of campaign planes and so on, that some of the parties are having active campaign days today, because why let anyone catch up?

Mark Carney was in his riding, meeting his team and volunteers, and had along the way kicked out local media. Oops. He’ll remain in Ottawa today, meeting with local families and volunteers.

Pierre Poilievre was in Winnipeg, where he pledged to allow tradespeople to write off their expenses when they travel for work, because he’s trying very hard to secure the blue-collar vote, and to pretend that the solution to the trade war with Trump is to just expand the oil and gas sector. Poilievre also said he wouldn’t contest any controversial Quebec language law in courts, and presumably that means their “secularism” legislation either (because apparently he’s still trying to out-Bloc the Bloc). Poilievre’s campaign returns to the GTA today.

Jagmeet Singh was in Ottawa, and promised “emergency price caps” on certain grocery items in order to “tariff proof” them, which seems like it’s asking to defeat the purpose of counter-tariffs because Singh and his advisors don’t have a clue about how these things work, and refuse to listen to economists. He also wants a windfall tax on grocery giants and more powers to the Competition Bureau to enforce grocery prices—almost all of which are old policies just dressed up for the trade war era rather than the spike in inflation, meaning that the NDP has a box of “solutions” that they are seeking out problems for. The campaign heads off to Port Moody, BC, today.

Meanwhile, the knives are out in the Conservative camp, with even more leaks and anonymous sources™ calling up more media outlets to discuss their concerns with the state of the campaign (CBC and Globe and Mail this time), painting even more of a picture of a campaign that is too centralised, too focused on weird, niche issues (including reporting of crowd sizes), bullying, and tone-deafness. This also includes the fact that some 90 ridings were set aside to have Poilievre and Jenni Byrne choose the candidates rather than allowing a nomination process, which is frankly happening across too many parties these days.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones struck a military hospital, shopping centre, and apartment blocks in Kharkiv late Saturday.

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Roundup: Carney’s first call with Trump

Day six of the campaign, and things took a slightly different tone as the tariff issue still loomed large. Mark Carney remained in Montreal, where he had his first call with Donald Trump since becoming prime minister, and they both gave very civil readouts, but the tariffs are still coming, as are the retaliatory measures. Carney then had a virtual meeting with the premiers, before holding his announcement for the day, which was about a $5 billion fund for trade corridors and infrastructure, dedicated in particular to east-west trade and ports to different destinations than the US. Today, Carney will be back in Ottawa to meet his campaign volunteers in Nepean (but no word on any actual door-knocking).

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Pierre Poilievre was in Nanaimo, BC, to essentially re-announce his previously revealed, completely unconstitutional promise of locking up fentanyl traffickers for life. This is just going to capture low-level users whose lives are already miserable, but sometimes the cruelty is the point. When asked about the latest tariffs, Poilievre continues to hope for a change in tone out of Trump (and is not facing the reality of a dead relationship), but then went into a rant about how only the oil industry can make us economically viable. Poilievre will be in Winnipeg today.

Jagmeet Singh was in Toronto to announce a policy about banning corporate landlords from buying affordable units and jacking the rents, and tried to tie it to Carney and Brookfield. Of course, Singh’s plan is mostly unworkable because much of it lies within provincial jurisdiction, so that’s not unexpected. He’ll be in Ottawa today, canvassing with local candidates.

In the wake of Kory Teneycke’s pillorying of Poilievre’s campaign, other Conservatives on the campaign are coming out the woodwork to talk about how the campaign is shambolic, the leader isolated, and that the wheels have already come off of it. In other campaign news, the National Post dug up Mark Carney’s PhD thesis and got an academic that they run op-eds for—and who donates to the Conservatives—to declare that aspects were “plagiarised.” They weren’t really, and the only real plagiarism here is the lifting wholesale of far-right US tactics (see: Claudine Gay at Harvard), but hoo boy, the stench of desperation coming off the Conservatives as every one of their candidates screamed over social media about this non-scandal. In a similar example of the media pushing a non-story comes word that one of the funds Poilievre invested in holds Brookfield stocks, after all of his grief about them (but again, they’re funds, he doesn’t direct them Meanwhile, Breach Media found evidence that Poilievre’s wife helped her uncle stay in the country after he was deemed inadmissible and was ordered to be deported, and contrasts it to Poilievre’s rhetoric about “illegal border crossers” needing to be deported.

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Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone attack on Dnipro killed four late Friday, and drone attacks on Poltava damaged warehouses owned by the state gas producer, in spite of the “energy ceasefire.” Russia claims Ukraine destroyed a gas infrastructure unit in Sudzha, but Ukraine said Russia did it. Now that Ukrainians are out of Kursk region, they have started fresh incursions into the Belgorod region. Ukrainian intelligence, corroborated by two G7 allies, suggests that Putin is planning a fresh offensive on three regions in order to strengthen Russia’s negotiating position with the US.

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Roundup: Security clearances back in the spotlight

Day three of the campaign, and Mark Carney remained in Halifax, where he had an announcement at the Irving Shipyard about his plans to continue recapitalizing the Royal Canadian Navy, and pledged to fill all 14,500 vacancies in the Canadian Forces expeditiously (and good luck with that). He also promised to expand the mandate of the Canadian Coast Guard, and that’s a lot of expensive promises for someone who wants to balance the “operating budget” and still give a tax cut. Over the course of the day, Carney also mispronounced the name of one of his “star” candidates in Montreal, and misidentified the École Polytechnique as Concordia (where another shooting did happen), which she forgave him for, but these are more rookie mistakes creeping in. Up next on the tour will be Windsor, Ontario, then London and Kitchener.

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Pierre Poilievre was in the GTA and promised to expand his proposed GST cut on new homes to now cover all new homes under $1.3 million—a pledge that has both upsides and downsides. There was also a bit of a gaffe with the sign on the lectern, where it looked like two separate verb-the-noun slogans of “Axe the Sales!” and “Tax on Homes.” That wasn’t the case, but someone should have caught that. He also insisted that people wouldn’t lose their federal dental or pharamacare coverage, but was unclear on just who would be covered under his government (and I have a hard time believing that given the scale of cuts that need to happen to fund his promises). He then headed to Hamilton in the evening for another rally.

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As for Jagmeet Singh, he was in Hamilton and mostly complained about Brookfield being capitalists as a way to talk down Mark Carney, and somehow that was supposed to tie into affordable housing, but I couldn’t see anything actually being announced. He did boast about union endorsements, but did admit that the party is facing challenges (as their poll numbers continue to plummet), but insist he’s still in the fight. Today he’s still in Hamilton for his announcement (trying to save the seats there, no doubt) before heading to London, Ontario.

The big story of the day, however, was the revelation in the Globe and Mail that CSIS did allege that India organised support for Poilievre’s leadership campaign (not that he really needed it), but also that they couldn’t brief him on this because he refuses to get his security clearance. Poilievre insisted this was a partisan smear, spun a conspiracy theory about a trip Carney took to Beijing after he was made the Liberal economic advisor, before returning to the falsehood that getting his clearance would be a “gag order,” and seemed wholly unaware that the bigger issue for him to be briefed on was who in his party may be compromised so that he, as party leader, can deal with the matters internally. This having been said, there are questions about the timing of this leak, but we can’t be sure that this was someone trying to put their thumb on the scales in the election when it’s very possible that the Globe sat on this for a while with the intention of dropping it during the campaign so that they can be seen to be setting the agenda, and not the parties. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time a media outlet has done that.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched 139 drones and missiles at Ukrainian targets overnight Monday, with damage and injuries in the Poltava region. A partial truce on energy and sea attacks was reached with American help, though the Americans are looking to ease sanctions on Russian fertilizer (which only helps their war effort, guys). President Zelenskyy warns, however, that Russia is already trying to manipulate and distort those accords, not that this should be a surprise.

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Roundup: Duelling tax cut offers

Day two of the campaign, and the first full day of campaigning. Mark Carney began in Gander, Newfoundland and Labrador, where he played up the Canadiana and the fact that Gander hosted passengers from aircraft stranded on 9/11 (which became the basis for the musical “Come from Away.” This was part of his appeal to Canadian values in the face of Trump and the trade war, before he jetted off to Halifax. (Day one recap here, and more about the fishers protesting his speech.). Carney also released a second, more earnest ad with Mike Myers, who officially endorsed him in it. Carney also added that he hasn’t spoken to Trump yet, but he suspects Trump is waiting until after the election to call.

Pierre Poilievre was still in the Greater Toronto Area, where he had pledged his own, larger income tax cut, and gave a faux assurance that it would be paid for with “cuts to bureaucracy, consultants, and foreign aid.” (Yeah, that’s not going to get you the money for this kind of a tax cut, it will absolutely disproportionately benefit the wealthy, and you can bet that social programmes will be on the chopping block). He also regaled the crowd with a stupid meme tale about telling a child that income tax is a “punishment for doing well,” rather than the entry fee for civilization. Because Poilievre is fundamentally an anti-government conservative (in spite of having spent his entire life in public office). (Day one recap here).

The NDP started off in Montreal, where he promised to set aside even more public land for rent-controlled homes, but didn’t exactly spell out how this would be different than what the federal government is already doing about leasing public lands (nor did he address the fact that a lot of that “government-owned land” are actually contaminated sites). He also took some jabs at a punching bag in an outdoor gym—because he’s spent the last few weeks trying to burnish a tough-guy image—before the bus went down the 401 to Toronto. (Day one recap here). He’ll spend much of the day there today, before heading to Hamilton later afternoon.

Given the two promises around tax cuts, here are some analyses of what it might mean, once we get more details. Economists, however, are pretty sceptical thus far that the maths are going to work out for these cuts.

The Leadership Debates Commission announced the dates for the two official “consortium” debates as April 16th and 17thin Montreal, French first, then English, each with a single moderator after the complete gong show of the previous two election cycles. There will not be a TVA “face-à-face” debate this time, as they planned to charge the leaders $75,000 each to “offset costs,” and the Liberals balked, so it won’t go ahead. The other campaigns are trying to say Carney was too afraid of a second French debate, but charging the parties to hold it was a very, very bad precedent, and it’s probably for the best that it wasn’t’ allowed to take hold.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian missiles hit a densely-populated part of Sumy, wounding 88 people, while there were further air attacks on Kyiv, wounding one and damaging houses. A Russian cyberattack also hit Ukraine’s state railway service, adding to the chaos of the situation.

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