Roundup: Trudeau holding the line on health transfers

While NDP leader Jagmeet Singh makes empty threats about ending their confidence agreement with the government if they don’t *handwave* do something about the current crisis in paediatric hospitals, prime minister Justin Trudeau seems to be staking a pretty firm position that he’s not giving the provinces a blank cheque and that he’s going to only give money when there is an agreement to reform the system, starting with data on outcomes so that they can measure what the new funding is doing. In his year-end interview with The Canadian Press, Trudeau elaborated on this particular position, with the backing of some national doctors and nurses groups, that just throwing money at a broken system won’t solve anything, so he’s going to just keep kicking this problem down the road.

Of course, the provinces think they have the upper hand here and have spent all kinds of money trying to convince Canadians that this is all the federal government’s fault, because they have been given a free hand with blame-shifting for decades now, because they could get away with it. There is ever-so-slowly a coming around to the fact that no, this is pretty much entirely the provinces’ mess, and the fact that they think we’re all idiots who can’t see that they’re crying poor while running surpluses, handing out vote-buying cheques and giving tax cuts to upper income brackets. They can’t keep up this act forever, and they are looking increasingly desperate in their attempts to keep shouting “look over there!”

Meanwhile, let me note that PEI remains the only province still moving ahead (slowly) with national pharmacare, as they are slowly identifying gaps and adding them to the formulary.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 294:

Ukrainians fleeing from Bakhmut describe constant shelling as Russians have pounded the city into nothing. In Kyiv, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy dissolved the District Administrative Court, which was rife with corruption and likened to a criminal organisation, saying that Ukraine can fight corruption and Russian invaders at the same time. The US has also been finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defence systems to Ukraine, which could help with the incoming Russian bombardment. Meanwhile, doctors and nurses from Mariupol have reassembled in Kyiv to help displaced Ukrainians in need of care. Elsewhere, here is the tale of Ukrainian women building drones in Latvia to send back to aid the war effort in Ukraine.

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Roundup: Incoherent amendments to an incoherent bill

Alberta premier Danielle Smith has announced the plans to amend her “Sovereignty Act” to take out the egregious aspect of giving Cabinet unlimited powers to amend existing legislation without through decree, and framed in a way that this was about “listening to caucus” rather than admitting that this was one giant omnishambles from the get-go. The problem is that her planned amendments…don’t actually make any sense. It sounds like they plan to send any proposed amendments from Cabinet back to the legislature to vote on, but that doesn’t make sense if you would just remove that whole section and let the legislative amendment process carry on as usual? And does it really remove the Henry VIII clause, or just add an extra step to it that would wind up being pro forma given their majority? None of it makes any sense, but considering just how incompetent she and her government are, nothing can really be surprising.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 286:

Russians fired another barrage of missiles into Ukraine, many of them hitting the suburbs of the city of Zaporizhzhia, plus other energy facilities including near Kyiv. Two Russian airbases were hit, allegedly by Ukrainian drones, but Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for a strike inside Russian borders. Meanwhile, here’s the tale of how Ukrainian healthcare workers saved children from being deported into Russia. Elsewhere, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court denounced a plan by the EU to create a UN-backed special tribunal for war crimes in Ukraine, saying that the ICC is perfectly capable of doing the job.

Good reads:

  • Justin Trudeau was in Ingersoll, Ontario, as the first EV rolled out of the GM factory there. There, he offered assurances about hunting rifles in the gun control bill.
  • Trudeau also said he is “extremely concerned” by reports of Canadian-made parts found in Iranian drones used by Russians in bombarding Ukraine.
  • Trudeau said that he is “watching closely” as the Americans respond to European complaints about North American protectionism in their Inflation Reduction Act.
  • In a year-ender, Trudeau says that Canadians need to be reassured about the allegations of Chinese interference in elections.
  • The COP15 biodiversity conference begins in Montreal today, which Canada is co-hosting with China (and I’m sure there’s no awkwardness there).
  • Mélanie Joly announced new sanctions on Haitian elites accused of empowering the criminal gangs in the country.
  • Sean Fraser says the federal government will fund projects to remove barriers for foreign-trained health care workers from practicing in Canada.
  • Employment data is showing that the national child care programme is having the desired effect, as more working-age women are entering the labour market.
  • The Royal Canadian Mint plans to release a special $2 circulation coin to honour the late Queen Elizabeth II.
  • Permanent residents can now apply to join the Canadian Forces.
  • Major-General Dany Fortin was acquitted of a sexual assault charge dating from 1988, and says he wants to get his career back.
  • As you may have heard, researchers at Dalhousie University predict that food prices will continue to climb by another seven percent next year.
  • A Spanish civil rights group reports that there are at least three Chinese “secret police stations” in Toronto, one in Vancouver, plus one more unknown location.
  • The Assembly of First Nations is likely to vote this week on the child welfare settlement agreement that their negotiator helped to craft.
  • Grocery oligopoly executives were at the Commons agriculture committee to push back against the claims they are driving food price inflation. (They’re not really).

Odds and ends:

My Loonie Politics Quick Take sorts some fact from fiction on the notion that Justin Trudeau has turned his back on Europe looking for LNG.

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Roundup: A nightclub shooting and sportwashing

There was another shooting at an LGBTQ+ nightclub over the weekend, this time in Colorado Springs. It comes after a marked increase of far-right groups targeting drag queens and trans people, and make no mistake that such rhetoric is very much leaking into Canada, and was present in the election through the People’s Party, and featured in some of the discourse coming out of the occupation in Ottawa back in February. It is having an impact here—I’ve spoken to out gay MPs who say they haven’t faced these kinds of threats in years, but now they’ve made a comeback, and this is going to mean a concerted effort to take this seriously in our politics. Unfortunately, I’m not sure how much I trust that it’ll happen, given that our current government talks a better game than they do in following through, and the Conservatives are hoovering up the far-right tactics and propaganda as a way of trying to use the far right to win votes rather than playing to the centre, and Poilievre has insulated himself from criticism on this by putting his two out MPs in his leadership team, including making Melissa Lantsman one of his deputy leaders.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1594362156547547145

https://twitter.com/carl_s_charles/status/1594358215226990598

With this in mind, and Trudeau’s words especially, I am curious why he and his government then chose to send a delegation, led by Harjit Sajjan, to the FIFA World Cup in Qatar, a country that criminalises LGBTQ+ people, and which is essentially a modern slave state where hundreds of migrant workers died in order to build the facilities for these games. By choosing to send the delegation (as opposed to letting Team Canada participate), they are actively participating in the sportswashing happening. Not to say that Canada hasn’t done its share of sportswashing (thinking especially of the Vancouver winter Olympics), but this is egregious, and incredibly disappointing that they made this choice.

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Roundup: Don’t just rely on the federal government

While at a feel-good announcement yesterday about the enhanced GST rebates going out to Canadians, Justin Trudeau told reporters that he was weighing “all options” on what to do about Doug Ford’s pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding Clause, though federal options are extremely limited because it is a legitimate constitutional power under certain circumstances, and doing anything about that would require a constitutional amendment, which if Quebec or Ontario are not on board with, would be dead in the water. And disallowance is likely a Pandora’s box of federal-provincial warfare, which limits options.

Trudeau also said that Canadians themselves need to stand up to provinces using this power rather than waiting for the federal government to intervene (as the pre-emptive use pretty much rules out the courts becoming involved), because we shouldn’t underestimate the power of popular discontent—particularly for someone like Doug Ford, who doesn’t like it when people are mad at him. The powers are being invoked by populists who think they can get away with it by pandering to baser instincts, and of people put sustained pressure on those governments to let them know that no, using these powers are not okay, that could force them to back off, but that means actual sustained pressure, and not just the kinds of slactivism that we have become accustomed to. That is the kind of democratic power that still exists and holds sway, and we shouldn’t discount it.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 255:

Russian authorities in occupied Kherson continue to attempt to evacuate civilians from the city, moving them deeper into Russian-occupied territory, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warns that Russia could be laying a trap to ensnare Ukrainian forces into intense urban warfare. Zelenskyy also said that Ukrainian forces have been holding their positions around Bakhmut and Soledar in the Donetsk region, while Russians send more troops into the “meat grinder.”

https://twitter.com/AnitaAnandMP/status/1588684951381508097

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Roundup: The possible constitutional crisis Ford wrought

The fallout of Doug Ford’s pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding Clause to bigfoot labour rights carried on yesterday on a few different fronts. In Queen’s Park, the NDP’s interim leader and half of their caucus were ejected by the Speaker for calling Doug Ford a liar over his comments about the CUPE strike, and not retracting. And when one was ejected, another one did on their turn, and so on. This is becoming a problem in legislatures and the House of Commons federally, where it becomes difficult to call out blatant falsehoods because of the prohibitions from calling someone a liar, which has absolutely emboldened parties and elected officials in their respective legislatures at different times, but it’s really bad right now.

Federally, NDP MP Matthew Green tried to call for an emergency debate on this abuse of the power, but it was not deemed worthy, and I’m at a loss as to how it could be because this isn’t a federal matter, and there is nothing the federal government can legitimately do (and don’t say Disallowance, because that is a constitutional dead letter). Later in the day, Justin Trudeau had a call with Doug Ford to tell him that his pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding Clause was “wrong and inappropriate,” but I’m not sure what more he can do about that, other than try and encourage enough public sentiment against Ford. After all, he likes to be the fun uncle, and if enough people are mad at him, he will back down. The question is sustaining enough anger and ensuring it is widespread enough for Ford to blink.

https://twitter.com/AaronWherry/status/1587989392383148032

Meanwhile, Andrew Coyne argues that federal disallowance powers should be revived to stop provinces’ abusive pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding clause, and it’s a position I’m going to have to give more thought to, because in a limited way there could be an argument, but it would have to be very particular. I will also note that over Twitter, there has been some chatter that there wasn’t this disallowance talk with Quebec using the Notwithstanding Clause, which is wrong—it has been there, but it is usually met with the same reply, that it’s a constitutional dead letter, and you’re provoking a constitutional crisis. But the constant abuse may have provoked that very crisis, so it’s going to need some very careful consideration as to what next steps are, and what the unintended consequences may be.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 253:

Russia is re-joining the deal to export Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea days after it pulled out of the agreement, saying that their security concerns have been met. Ukraine has officially denied being involved in the attack on Russian ships over the weekend, but president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Russia seeking security guarantees from Ukraine is a sign of how badly its invasion has gone for them.

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Roundup: Sloly, Day Two

It was another firehose of news out of the Emergencies Act public inquiry for the second day of former Ottawa police chief Peter Sloly’s testimony. Sloly lashed out at RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki and then-Public Safety minister Bill Blair for not giving him the resources he needed, even though they were reluctant to give over resources without any kind of coherent plan in place (which is, frankly, reasonable), nor was Sloly following proper procedure for requesting additional resources under the Ontario policing legislation. Sloly also repeatedly contradicted documentary evidence, and attributed attacks against him to be rumours. There was some pretty disturbing stuff about how Navigator was involved in the decision-making, and how they were essentially testing how different parts of the city would react to actions to clear the occupation, which is a really, really questionable way for police to make decisions about how they’re upholding laws.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1587096886388969472

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1587231274640490496

Meanwhile, we also got a look at the “intelligence” that the occupation was operating on, as a self-styled “expert” compiled these reports for organisers which are replete with fanciful notions of the Trudeau government trying to make this a Tiananmen Square-style event to crush dissenters. No, seriously. Other documents show that the RCMP union felt the decision to allow the trucks to park near Parliament Hill represented an unacceptable risk, and how they were preparing to respond to the request for their services. Other texts tabled with the inquiry show Marco Mendicino’s office trying to come up with a communications strategy before the convoy arrived and began the occupation.

Elsewhere, Doug Ford goes to court today to try and keep from testifying at the public inquiry. Justice Rouleau, who leads the inquiry, is seeking to have that application dismissed, saying that Ford is overstating his parliamentary privilege to avoid having to testify. But while Ford claims he’s too busy to testify, he spent yesterday putting out folksy pumpkin-carving videos, so yeah, that’s going to be a problem.

https://twitter.com/dgardner/status/1587114402851033091

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 251:

More heavy Russian bombardment of Kyiv has cut most power and water in the city, as the plan to try and demoralise the capital continues. Other cities were hit as well, and one missile that the Ukrainians shot down fell into a border city in Moldova, though no casualties resulted. Russia is claiming retaliation for attacks on their ships in the Black Sea, though Ukraine denies attacking them.

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Roundup: Lost faith in the Ottawa Police Service

Once again, a lot of threads to disentangle as the OPP Commissioner, Thomas Carrique, was on the stand at the Emergencies Act public inquiry, and what a lot of the day seemed to focus on (at least, from what I could tell from afar) were the texts he was exchanging with RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki. So, what did we learn? That the federal government had pretty much lost all confidence in the Ottawa Police and were discussing taking over the response to the occupation, even though Lucki was particularly reluctant to do so (and worried that the Emergencies Act would be used to make that happen). There was discussion about the OPP in particular taking over, and the Commissioner was ready to have that call before the Ottawa chief resigned. Once Peter Sloly was out of the way, an integrated command was set up. Also interesting was the comment that the Act was used to compensate tow truck drivers more than it was to compel their services (which could be a signal to the provinces about how they may need to update their own emergency legistlation).

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1585629449038577664

Carrique defended his comments that the occupation was a threat to national security, and the way that the blockade of the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor was handled differently than the Ottawa occupation. Documents provided to the inquiry showed that the FBI provided some support to the Ottawa Police during the occupation, likely around US-based support for it, so that lends some credence to the national security threat analysis.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1585720241979629569

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 246:

Ukrainian forces attacked Russian forces occupying the southern city of Kherson, while fighting also intensified in the country’s east as Russians bombarded the city of Bakhmut. While Putin is denying he plans to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine (isn’t that a sign he will?), another mass grave was discovered in the village of Kopanky.

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Roundup: Contradictions and poor intelligence practices

There has been a number of competing threads in the ongoing Emergencies Act public inquiry, and a lot of police testimony that is contradictory, and contradicting their own documentary evidence. For example, one senior Ottawa police officer is claiming that they had the tow trucks all lined up and ready to go without the invocation of the Act—erm, except the documents don’t show that at all, and that they needed the Act to secure those services. There has also been a lot of alarming signs about the quality of police intelligence about the make-up of the occupation (which many leaders subsequently ignored anyway). The OPP did see an increasing risk of violence the longer it dragged on, particularly by those in the occupation who felt they were “at war” with the federal government, along with growing anti-police sentiment (presumably because police weren’t doing their bidding to arrest members of the government). The Commission has agreed to hear CSIS’ evidence behind closed doors.

Here’s former CSIS analyst Jessica Davis on the quality of that intelligence, and yikes:

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 245:

Both Russian and NATO forces carried out annual nuclear exercises, while Russia carries on its false narrative that Ukrainians plan to detonate a “dirty bomb” on their own soil in order to blame Russia—information operations entirely. While this was happening, Russian forces targeted 40 towns in Ukraine, killing at least two more people.

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Roundup: The problem with giving everyone a title

There has been a lot of talk over the past few days about the choices that Pierre Poilievre made with announcing a shadow Cabinet as large as he did, and lo, the CBC had even more commentary over the weekend about it. Suffice to say, I’m not sure I really buy the take of “it gives everyone something to do.” Why? For starters, the whole point of a shadow Cabinet, particularly as it is practiced in the UK, is to have people who are ready to go into ministries if there is a change of government, and these are people who know their files, and can slot into the positions easily and quickly. That doesn’t really happen in Canada because our Cabinets have a lot of other considerations in play, such as regional composition, and balance with gender and other diversity, but region is the big one, and therefore, we can’t really have people ready to go into ministries because we don’t know how the regional dynamics will play at a time when they form government. (This is one reason why I’m not keen on calling critics “shadow ministers,” because they don’t have the same function). If you give everyone jobs that are not related to how Cabinet is composed, you’re not really living up to the purpose, particularly if you’re assigning made-up portfolios to certain MPs to exercise their hobby-horses as a reward for loyalty, even though as a reward goes, it’s not much because there is no added pay that goes with it.

My other problem, however, is that MPs already have a lot of work that they’re already not really doing, and many of them have offloaded those responsibilities on to independent Officers of Parliament, and that’s a problem. Committee work is supposed to take up the bulk of an MP’s time, but if they’re playing “shadow minister” for their hobby horses, they’re spending less time doing the work in committee or elsewhere that they’re supposed to be doing. There is also participation-trophy syndrome at play, where (almost) everyone gets a title (but not pay), even though we should remember that backbenchers are supposed to play important accountability roles in our parliamentary system. If we’re training the caucus to all expect titles and roles and not that they have jobs to do as backbenchers, we’re really weakening the ability of our parliament to do its job, and that is worrying. Not that the current crop of MPs in the Commons seems to care much about Parliament and its ability to function correctly, and this goes for all parties (and it’s really not helped when the prime minister has been a constitutional vandal when it comes to the Senate and the role it plays). This is a problem, and we should be talking about it, rather than patting Poilievre on the back for such a “strategic” move.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 235:

Russian-backed separatists in Donetsk say that their mayor’s office was hit by a rocket, which the Ukrainian military has not claimed responsibility for, while Russian rockets struck the town across from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Over the weekend, a missile strike seriously damaged an energy facility near Kyiv,

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1581636027487178754

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Roundup: Freeland’s non-contradictory position on energy

On Tuesday, Chrystia Freeland gave a speech at the Brookings Institute in Washington, DC, and she outlined some fairly ambitious economic policy that involves a retrenching of keeping our supply chains within fellow democracies, because relying on regimes like Russia and China can prove costly in the end—particularly if you look at what’s happening in Europe with their energy crisis. It also means accelerating the green energy transition, which is also happening at a faster pace. But what got a bunch of people in Canada curious was Freeland talking about fast-tracking energy and mining projects to help Europe with that transition. But there is nuance there, however.

The CBC in particular got excited because they claimed to see some kind of contradiction with what Freeland was saying with the fact that the government won’t do anything to fast-track LNG projects, and that we somehow sent German Chancellor Olaf Scholz packing when he came looking for LNG. Erm, except he didn’t, because he knows as well as anyone that we don’t have the infrastructure for LNG, and so he came looking for hydrogen, which he got. But the CBC’s Vassy Kapelos did an interview with Scholz, where she spent half of it badgering and hectoring him about LNG until he said that he would like Canadian LNG if we had it, and they kept bringing that clip up in isolation. But again, Scholz knows we don’t, that it would take too long to build, and frankly that the market case isn’t there. As I wrote in this column, the timelines for these projects don’t make sense, and frankly, the LNG projects that have been on the drawing table for decades never took off because they couldn’t get commitments from buyers for the project. And while Kapelos was hectoring and badgering natural resources minister Jonathan Wilkinson yesterday about LNG, and insisting that the Americans can get theirs to export and why not us, the difference is that they have been converting LNG import terminals for export, which we can’t do. We have one import terminal in New Brunswick, and it would take two years to retrofit, assuming they could get a steady supply of gas, which they don’t have without importing. That’s why it’s an import terminal. But apparently there are no producers at Power & Politics who can pick up the phone and call a gods damned energy economist who can explain these things before they talk to the minister and not waste everyone’s time.

So no, Freeland didn’t contradict anyone. They are putting a focus on mining critical minerals in Canada—Trudeau made such an announcement earlier in the week. They are focusing on hydrogen, some of which may come from natural gas, which again, is not LNG, but is an energy project. “Energy project” is not simply code for LNG, guys. It’s only slightly alarming that the gods damned public broadcaster can’t be bothered to do their homework to put things in context before they start hyperventilating, but this is apparently the era we’re living in.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 231:

Ukrainian forces say that they have recaptured five settlements in the southern Kherson region, while the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant has lost external power for the second time in five days, which puts stress on the cooling systems.

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