Tag Archives: GLTB

Roundup: A promise to waste millions of dollars

Posted on by

There are a lot of stupid, performative things being said right now, particularly in those three provincial elections, but one of the dumbest yesterday was courtesy of incumbent New Brunswick premier Blaine Higgs, who promised that if re-elected, he will mount a new legal challenge of the federal carbon levy. And to make that worse, several Conservative MPs picked that up and declared during Question Period that the challenge was already underway (it’s not), as though it were a devastating argument for their demands to “axe the tax” or to call an election.

Higgs’ promise is premised entirely on bullshit. There is no basis for him to mount a new challenge because nothing about the programme has changed since the Supreme Court of Canada already ruled that it’s constitutional and within the powers of the federal government, particularly because of the existential challenge that climate change poses to Canadians. The fact that the price is increasing or that we have been though a bout of higher inflation—which has already stabilised and returned to target, and for which the carbon levy did not actually cause any of said inflation because that’s not how inflation works—don’t change any of the legal bases or arguments around the levy. And because the Supreme Court of Canada has already ruled, any lower court that Higgs tries to mount a new challenge in is going to tell him to go pound sand.

Higgs is essentially promising to waste hundreds of thousands of dollars in legal fees, because you know that when the courts tell him to go pound sand, they’ll also tell him to reimburse the legal costs of the federal government because they wasted everyone’s time and money in bringing such a frivolous suit in the first place. But there is a political calculus, particularly on the right, where they are prepared to waste millions of dollars in doomed legal challenges because they think that it’s good electoral calculus to show that you’re fighting. Federally, Conservatives have made this argument a number of times when the government didn’t pursue doomed appeals and just made changes, and no doubt Higgs figures that this will work the same way for him. But then again, I guess they’re not bothered by the cognitive dissonance of “we need to balance the budget” and “we need to waste millions of dollars on a doomed legal crusade,” because that might require introspection or self-awareness, both of which are in incredibly short supply in politics these days.

Pretty much all of #cdnpoli. It's really hard to be optimistic about any of it right now.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-10-01T14:21:44.377Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Six civilians were killed and more wounded when Russian artillery struck a bus stop in Kherson. Russian troops have also reached the centre of Vuhledar, a Ukrainian bastion in the strategic high ground of the Donbas region, which is significant because of where it borders and the supply routes it controls. Ukraine is also investigating an apparent shooting of sixteen POWS by Russian troops.

Continue reading →

Roundup: The usual NATO narratives

Posted on by

Because the NATO summit is happening right now in Washington DC, you may have noticed that the entire media narrative in Canada is around the two-percent-of-GDP defence spending target (which is a stupid metric!) and how Canada has not managed to miraculously achieve it, and tossing around words like “free-rider” and “unserious.” The Elder Pundits have declared that this is the narrative by which the entire event must be framed by, and ignore absolutely all other context or counterfactuals.

Indeed, we shall not mention that the GDP denominator is a much bigger hurdle for Canada because of the size of our economy relative to many other NATO member countries, and that because our economy is growing, that pushes our spending requirements even higher. (Conversely, if we crashed the economy, we could reach that two percent target really quickly). We shall not mention that Canada contributes to NATO operations in a meaningful way, unlike many other NATO countries who may be meeting the two-percent spending target—holding the fort in Kandahar when no one else would, hitting moving targets in Libya, managing one of the most difficult missions in the Baltics right now (being the Latvian mission) as well as training Ukrainian troops into being effective soldiers who were able to hold off the invasion. Nor shall we mention that other countries claiming to reach their two percent targets have only done so through the accounting trickery of front-loading their capital spending (meaning future spending will drop off), or promising the spending in spite of constitutional restrictions around the size of deficit spending. None of these facts matter to the Elder Pundits and the narrative they have decided upon.

Yes, Canada needs to spend more, but you can’t just throw money at National Defence—they haven’t had the capacity to spend their full budget, which is why the spending lapses (which the PBO did get right in his report). It is taking time to build the capacity back up to spend the money, and part of that is fixing the recruitment and retention crisis (which has gone very, very slowly). But they are recapitalising the Forces in a significant way, and once we get to the submarine procurement, those numbers are going climb precipitously, but again, we want to do that cautiously to avoid the procurement problems of the past. Minister have been saying that we need there to be something to show for the increased spending, which media and the Elder Pundits have had a hard time comprehending. So, when you hear the usual “free rider” nonsense, remember that we are actually contributing, unlike a lot of other member countries.

https://twitter.com/journo_dale/status/1810866983534997849

Ukraine Dispatch

Here are more accounts from the bombing of the children’s hospital in Kyiv on Monday. Russia claims that the hospital was hit by Ukrainian fire, but offers no evidence, while the UN assessment is pretty sure it was the Russian missile that was observed. From the NATO Summit in Washington, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Americans to keep funding Ukraine’s war effort rather than waiting for the election results in November.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1810640148444709169

Continue reading →

Roundup: Fix nominations how?

Posted on by

Over in the Globe and Mail, Andrew Coyne points to Hogue Report’s comments on party nomination races as a possible vector for foreign interference, and declares that they need to be cleaned up, but declines to say how. He disputes that parties are entirely private clubs, because “Their sole purpose is to seek and wield coercive power over the rest of us. How they go about it is therefore a matter of vital public concern, and regulation in the public interest – at the least, transparency – is entirely justified.”

But how exactly does one propose to do that? Involve Elections Canada with all internal deliberations of these parties, whether it’s a nomination contest, leadership race, or policy convention? While I get the temptation, we have to ask ourselves if any of this is practical, not only because when an election happens, there are a tonne of last-minute nomination meetings, but there are hundreds of registered political parties. Should they only concern themselves with parties that have seats in the Commons? Would they create disparate sets of rules for the big four parties than any others? Could they get away with that in the courts? I’m not sold that this is a solution because it would involve a massive expansion of their powers and bureaucracy, and because they are ultimately reporting to an Independent Officer of Parliament who has no real accountability, the potential for abuse if enormous.

This isn’t to say that things don’t need to change, because they do, but it’s not exactly something that external monitors can fix. In fact, the solution on its face is much less mysterious than it might sound, but it goes back to the original sin of Canadian politics—the decision to remove leadership selection from the caucus to the party membership. Restore this to caucus selection, and you can start separating the parliamentary and constituency party powers again, so that the parliamentary party leader can’t exert outsized influence on the nomination races, and the constituency party is motivated to keep a closer eye on the nomination races, particularly because that’s their job rather than the parliamentary leader trying to stuff the races with its parachute or hand-picked candidates. I would also note that the number of races that would be vulnerable to foreign interference is actually very small, given that you’re not going be able to find diasporic communities in most rural ridings, so again, we should beware what we’re talking about here. I think we need to better appreciate the scope of the problem, and ensure that the right incentives are there for the parties to clean up their own messes rather than involving Elections Canada.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian infantry has been trying to breach local defences in the Kharkiv region, but so far, Ukraine has been holding them off. Ukraine is due to start receiving their first F-16s by summer.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Sanctions theatre, Hamas edition

Posted on by

Yesterday, foreign affairs minister Mélanie Joly announced that Canada would be sanctioning senior leaders of Hamas…which is already a listed terrorist organization. The whole exercise appears to be little more than sanctions theatre, according to Jessica Davis, who does this for a living. Nothing Joly announced is likely to make any difference compared to what is already on the books, meaning this is likely just a hollow gesture to make it looks like the government is doing something without actually doing anything. Of course, if they really wanted to do something, they could properly resource the RCMP’s sanctions enforcement regime and their counter terrorism financing abilities (or better yet, disband the RCMP and start up a dedicated federal policing force that can specialise in this kind of work).

Ukraine Dispatch:

A Russian attack overnight on a village in the Kharkiv region killed a two-month old baby. The Donetsk region’s governor says that his province is pounded by 2500 Russian strikes daily, while Avdiivka, a short distance away, has been the focus of Russian attention for months now. Ukrainian special forces say they blew up a drilling platform in the Black Sea that Russians were using to support their drone operations. As the shake-up of the Ukrainian military approaches, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants a dedicated branch devoted to drones.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1754881455702897018

Continue reading →

Roundup: One great backbencher

Posted on by

Following his unsuccessful run to lead the Ontario Liberal Party, Liberal backbencher Nathaniel Erskine-Smith has confirmed he’s not running in the next election, which is a very big shame. Erskine-Smith has been the kind of backbencher that we need a lot more of in this country, which is to say someone who’s not afraid to rock the boat a little, and to vote against his own party from time to time on matters of principle. That’s exceedingly rare in Canadian politics, and mostly happens only among the Liberals in recent parliaments—Conservatives have a desire to show they’re in lockstep, and the NDP will quietly punish MPs who don’t show continued “solidarity” (and you’d better believe they have an internal bullying culture).

This being said, I’m was not sure that Erskine-Smith would have made a great party leader provincially. While he brought great ideas to the campaign, my concern would be whether someone like that, who wasn’t afraid of rocking the boat from a backbench position, could maintain that energy sustainably in a leadership role, particularly because of the number of compromises that leadership in politics entails. It makes it harder to maintain the kinds of principled positions that he has been able to take, particularly on areas where sitting governments can find themselves getting uncomfortable.

Maybe I’m wrong. Perhaps he could have made it work in leadership and brought a fresh energy to provincial politics the way he’s managed to make a particularly necessary contribution federally. Regardless, I hope he has inspired other backbenchers to take more changes and go against the party line from time to time, because we desperately need it.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces shot down 22 out of 33 Russian drones launched overnight Thursday, which hit residential neighbourhoods in the southern city of Kherson, and the nearby community of Beryslav. Ukrainian forces also claim to have hit targets in St. Petersburg, which travelled 1250 km to get there. Russian forces claim to have taken over a settlement called Vesele in Ukraine’s east. Meanwhile, six settlements are being rebuilt under the rubric that economies win wars, but they are only building essentials like housing and hospitals, and not libraries or museums.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Zelenskyy’s trip to Canada

Posted on by

It was Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s big day in Ottawa, his first since the war began, and he began the day paying a visit to Governor General Mary May Simon. She taught him the Inuktitut word “Ajuinnata,” meaning perseverance in the face of adversity, and it’s a message Zelenskyy took with him. (Simon also taught that word to the Queen when she was first appointed, and has been something of a calling card that she leaves with those she interacts with).

From there, Zelenskyy arrived on Parliament Hill and did the official greetings within the West Block before having an extended bilateral meeting that included signing new economic agreements and pledges of another round of economic and military support from Canada. And from there, to the House of Commons to address a joint session of Parliament, giving an excellent speech (that was far better than the one Joe Biden delivered a few months ago).

From there, Zelenskyy was off to Toronto to meet more business groups and supporters in Canada. The CBC has photos from the day here, and here is a summary of what was agreed to between the leaders.

Ukraine Dispatch:

While the cat’s away… Ukrainian forces launched a missile strike against Russian forces in occupied Crimea, and destroyed the headquarters of Russia’s navy in the region. On the eastern front, Ukrainian troops are vowing to fully re-take Bakhmut, but know that it’s going to be a challenge.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1705219158013522222

https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1705273496157192520

Continue reading →

Roundup: Empty threats to sit into the summer

Posted on by

Because this whole thing is nothing but really bad theatre, Pierre Poilievre went back before the microphones yesterday morning, declared victory from his fauxlibuster that didn’t accomplish a single gods damned thing, and then said that he was prepared to sit through the summer to make sure that the he got his budget demands. But that was another empty threat, because he doesn’t have the votes to block anything.

And lo, after Question Period, the budget bill passed as it was expected to, and is off to the Senate. Poilievre says his senators will try to stall or stop the bill there, but again, they don’t have anywhere near enough votes for that to make a difference, even if they do have a few more procedural opportunities to slow it down a little. Of course, this is a government bill so the Leader of the Government in the Senate can attempt time allocation if he thinks he has the votes to pull it off (and he probably does), so the delays will likely be fairly minimal.

This being said, the Government House Leader also said that he won’t let the House rise for the summer until they pass his motion to make hybrid sittings permanent, which is an abomination that is going to hasten the decline of our already weakened Parliament. (And yes, I have a full column on this coming out later today).

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1666830949420609537

Ukraine Dispatch:

While evacuations are taking place in Kherson as a result of the flood caused by the breached dam, Russians are shelling the area, including evacuation hotspots, because of course they are. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the area to see the flood devastation first-hand. Russians launched another overnight air attack, killing one person in Uman in the Cherkasy region.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Hypothetical subways and more traffic

Posted on by

It was a quieter day, post-debate, but the leaders were all back on the road, mindful that there is still another debate later in the week. Andrew Scheer in Markham to promise funds for two Toronto subway projects – while lying about the Liberal record on said funding (the funds haven’t been released because there isn’t an actual plan for those lines yet) – and to further promise that he would fund any infrastructure project designed to ease congestion. Erm, except that this is a promise to induce demand because all of the data show that if you build more traffic infrastructure, that traffic just grows to fill it. It doesn’t actually relieve congestion – it just contributes to making it worse.

Jagmeet Singh was in Toronto to talk student loans, and when pressed about Bill 21 by the media, he said that if it made it to the Supreme Court of Canada that the federal government would “have to” take a look at it then – which isn’t really true, and they could put arguments forward at any court case along the way. This makes Singh’s position to basically punt the problem down the road for a few years, for apparently little electoral gain.

Justin Trudeau, meanwhile, went to Iqaluit in Nunavut, where he spoke about the North being on the “front lines” of climate change, and to meet with elders in that community. It also lets Trudeau make the claim that he’s the only leader to have visited the North during the campaign, for a few hours in any case.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Kenney’s latest salvo

Posted on by

Over the weekend, Alberta premier Jason Kenney put out a video over Twitter that was an explicit declaration that he plans to campaign against Justin Trudeau in the upcoming federal election, but it was couched in the language of provincial separatism. Or rather, Kenney claimed that Trudeau was trying to “push Alberta out” of the Canadian federation, but he would rather “separate Trudeau from the office of the prime minister.”

For Kenney to claim that Trudeau is the source of Alberta’s woes is frankly ridiculous, and to say that Trudeau has been stoking separatist sentiment is laughable. Last I checked, Trudeau wasn’t the cause of the plunge in world oil prices, nor was his the government that has been blocking progress on the Keystone XL pipeline or Enbridge Line 3, and he not only bought the Trans Mountain pipeline to de-risk it, but ensured that the Federal Court of Appeal’s concerns were addressed so that it could begin construction without further court challenges. And if Kenney wants to throw Energy East or Northern Gateway in the mix, well, the former was withdrawn because the economics of the project were insufficient, and the Harper government’s inaction and lack of proper Section 35 consultation ensured that Northern Gateway would not go ahead.

Of course, Kenney is also perpetuating his campaign of lies and snake oil, such as his complaints that the province is getting a “raw deal” from equalization – remembering of course that Alberta doesn’t sign a cheque to other provinces, but that it comes from everyone’s federal income taxes, and Alberta has the highest incomes in the country by far, nor will a referendum on the programme do anything other than further inflame sentiment in the process that Kenney has been lying about. And he knows that he needs to keep the population angry at outside forces so that they don’t start turning on him given that he can’t fulfil the promises he made to them. This video was not only bizarre, but it also perhaps gives a hint of the kind of increasingly desperate measures that Kenney will have to resort to in order to keep stoking anger.

Continue reading →

QP: Pushing back a little against mendacity

Posted on by

While the prime minister was in Montreal to meet with business leaders, Andrew Scheer was also absent, which is becoming increasingly common of late. Candice Bergen led off, concern trolling that the Statistics Canada plan to gather transaction data could endanger trade with Europe (which I am dubious of). Navdeep Bains thanked her for the thoughtful question, and reminded her that this was a pilot project that had not yet started, and they were working with the Privacy Commissioner to ensure it was done properly. Bergen tried again, and this time, Bains called out her mischaracterisation and read the portion of the Statistics Act that spelled out that nobody could compel the release of that personal information. Alain Rayes took over to ask the same question in French, and Bains reiterated the point about pilot project. Rayes then switched topics to inquire about what the “secret mission” assigned to missing MP Nicola Di Iorio was, and Bardish Chagger read that the member is responsible to his constituents and he is reflecting on his work. Bergen got back up to ask the same question in English, and Chagger read the same in English. Guy Caron was up next for the NDP, and demanded that Canada follow Mexico’s suit in order to refuse to sign the New NAFTA until the steel and aluminium tariffs were lifted. Marc Garneau stood up to express come confusion that the NDP were praising the deal in some venues, but attacking it in others. Caron changed topics to ask about the star of the Paradise Papers, but Garneau ignored the question in order to read more of the NDP’s praise for the agreement. Tracey Ramsey reiterated the Paradis Papers question in English, and Mélanie Joly a stood up to praise the reinvestment in CRA’s resources. Ramsey then repeated the demand to not sign the new NAFTA as long as the tariffs were in place, and Garneau repeated his confusion about the NDP’s position in English.

Continue reading →