Now that the budget implementation bill has passed, the Parliamentary Budget Officer is in the midst of transforming into yet another unaccountable Officer of Parliament that will have a broad mandate and few checks on his actions, given that the government backed down on their attempts to limit the scope of his work. What they didn’t limit was the giving the PBO the mandate to cost election promises by other parties, despite his objections to doing so, and so now his office is being forced to figure out just how they’ll do it. The legislation does make it clear that he’s only to cost individual promises, not their whole campaign, but it’s going to be an enormous amount of work that will be used even more as a cudgel than his work already is, and we can expect an election period being filled with taunts of “See, the PBO says that your plans will cost more than you say and he’s independent,” with the unspoken “Nya, nya!” in there. Oh boy. Anyway, Jennifer Robson has a few more thoughts on the issue.
the Gov answer on why no amendments to costing seems to be 'PBO will figure it out', 'parties will be chill' 'we can fix it in 5 yrs'
— Dr. J Robson (@JenniferRobson8) June 28, 2017
So PBO is left to plan & seek budget for service that could be v costly or largely not used.
— Dr. J Robson (@JenniferRobson8) June 28, 2017
Keeping ministerial discretion to cooperate or not on request for info during pre-elxn period still problematic IMHO.
— Dr. J Robson (@JenniferRobson8) June 28, 2017
But there are alternatives. Eg: delegate to DM as per ATIP. Would keep Ministers in governing party fully out of work to cost Oppo platforms
— Dr. J Robson (@JenniferRobson8) June 28, 2017
Another issue is 'comparability' promised by LPC. Seems to me that demands common fiscal/econ assumptions across platforms.
— Dr. J Robson (@JenniferRobson8) June 28, 2017
Gov line that 'it'll all be fine' may be true in the end. But may be b/c service isn't attractive to parties. Low use/unused can = 'fine'.
— Dr. J Robson (@JenniferRobson8) June 28, 2017
If PBO is doing single commitments as asked, can they demand/enforce that common baseline?
— Dr. J Robson (@JenniferRobson8) June 28, 2017
The bit about a common baseline is possibly important, given that economist Stephen Gordon has been trying to match Liberal election promises to the current budget framework and has found the task to be nigh impossible.
Current status: Trying to compare LPC 2015 campaign costings with 2016 and 2017 budget numbers. This is a remarkably difficult task.
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) June 27, 2017
Status update: Swearing at devious cretins who devised presentation of LPC costing numbers.
We should have known from the start. https://t.co/QJoPpCpQjL
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) June 28, 2017
Enforcing common costing baselines may sound like a good idea, but it does make me nervous about campaigns devolving into accounting exercises at the expense of other considerations, including accountability, and that we’ll have repeats of 2008, when we had clear platform commitments shrugged off by reporters going “it’s just so complicated” when a) it wasn’t, and b) it reinforces this “math is hard” narrative that does nobody any favours. But maybe that’s just me.