Tag Archives: General Jonathan Vance

Roundup: Ford is steering Ontario into the third wave

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Ontario is seeing the biggest rise in the B117 variant of COVID – known colloquially as the UK variant – and yet Doug Ford is promising to start lifting restrictions later this week. We’ve only just gotten first doses to residents of long-term care facilities, and even those vaccinations won’t have a dent in ICU admissions, and yet, Ford and company are barrelling ahead with nonsensical plans. Another example was to delay March Break until April, ostensibly to prevent travel (because there is always travel over holidays), but it seems to also fly in the face of measures related to closing schools to prevent more spread, and that it could have had that utility.

Nevertheless, the province’s own modelling shows a disastrous third wave oncoming because of these more transmissible variants, and point to the need to keep up current restrictions. Ford plans to go ahead with loosening them. And then there was this remarkable exchange where a TVO reporter asked if the province was headed for disaster on this current course, and the public health officials essentially confirmed it.

Ontario is being governed by a group of murderclowns. There is no other explanation.

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Roundup: No, there won’t be a spring election

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I wanted to take a few moments to vent, dear readers, about the constant talk about an election. Because, quite frankly, there is too much talk about it right now and it’s starting to do my head in. There is no chance that anybody actually wants to go to an election right now, and yet that’s all anyone can talk about. We’re seeing another round of “exclusive polls” being published here, there and yonder, because everyone is super keen on it, for no reason other than the pundit class has become bored and are itching for something to do.

Guys. Stop trying to make an election happen. It’s not going to happen.

We are still not out of the second wave, and there won’t be sufficient vaccine distribution to reach the bulk of the population until the end of September. Any party that tries to push an election before then is going to be suicidal, no matter how high their poll numbers may be looking for them. The Liberals are not going to force it now because their numbers are healthy, because Canadians know when parties are cynically trying to take advantage of those numbers and force an unnecessary election – there is plenty of precedent of governments being punished for doing so. The fact that the vaccine rollout has had hiccups that have punished them at the polls (in part because these same pundits have decided to coalesce on the narrative of “botched” and “off-the-rails,” in spite of facts and logic) would make anyone too hesitant to pull the trigger, even on the strength of what they’re offering on the budget. Unless the other parties vote down said budget or a non-confidence motion (over what? Something that the PM has little control over and they could do no better on), any attempt to go to the GG or the Administrator outside of that would immediately be clocked as a cynical ploy while there’s a pandemic on. The fact that some provinces have done so is not licence for the federal government to do so.

“But they need to do it this year or it’s not going to happen!” is usually what I hear as an excuse. Maybe in the fall, on an economic update – maybe. But frankly, with the vaccinations rolling up then, and the economy re-opening for realsies (we hope), frankly I would presume people to be too busy or preoccupied to focus on an election, or to want one for no reason other than for the Liberals to try and regain a majority parliament. Nevertheless, anyone who thinks it’s going to happen in the spring or even the summer is huffing the fumes of those polls.

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Roundup: Not releasing the contracts

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It seems that prime minister Justin Trudeau has rejected a call by the premiers to release the details of the vaccine contracts – as well he should have. So much of the past couple of weeks’ panic over the delays in Pfizer and Moderna doses has been this self-assuredness that the federal government must have negotiated a bad deal, and they’re going to “prove it” by demanding to see what’s in the contracts. After all, most of the conservative-leaning premiers are still operating under the assumption that Trudeau is some kind of naïf who can barely put his own pants on let alone govern a country (while most of them believe themselves to be super-geniuses). Of course, all that making the contracts public would do is to allow other countries to start trying to outbid what we paid for our doses in order to get the companies to break the contracts in order to get their own orders faster.

With this in mind, I would point you in the direction of this longread from Maclean’s, which goes through the story of the procurement process for these vaccines, including talking to some of the players involved, and while no secrets are divulged, some of the calculations on the part of the companies is better fleshed out, including the fact that our public healthcare system ostensibly makes out rollout likely to go more smoothly, which is good for the companies because it means fewer wasted doses. Now, mind you, it’s not going to be even across the country given the disparities in health systems between provinces, and the varying levels of incompetence that some of the provincial governments display, but there are some good insights in the piece, so I would encourage you to take the time to read it through.

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QP: Pouncing on COVAX

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There was a second Liberal in the Chamber today, with Francis Drouin joining Mark Gerretsen, not that this made the situation any better. Candice Bergen led off for the Conservatives, appearing by video, and she demanded government support for their Supply Day motion on the creation of a Canada-US committee. Chrystia Freeland, also by video, responded that the Conservatives’ plan around Trump’s tariffs was to wave the white flag. Bergen tried again, bringing in the concerns over Line 5, to which Freeland offered calm assurances that they were working with the Americans on this file. Bergen then switched to the topic of vaccines, worrying that we were dropping in rankings, to which Freeland gave the usual assurances about the portfolio and that the schedule was still intact. Gérard Deltell took over in French, and he said it was “humiliating” that the government was drawing from the COVAX fund, misconstruing the deal. Freeland responded that COVAX was always part of the strategy, and this proved the system was working. Deltell pressed upon the urgency of the need for vaccines, and Freeland gave the same assurances.

Alain Therrien led off for the Bloc, and he too brought up the false reading of the COVAX programme, calling it “embarrassing,” and Freeland repeated that it was always part of the strategy and listed other allies who were part of it. Therrien demanded a plan for vaccinations, for which Freeland calmly stated that they also shared the sense of urgency, which is why they are sharing all of their information.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and in French, he tied the loss of lives to vaccine delays, and wanted to know why the government let people down. Freeland read off the talking points on the breadth of our vaccine portfolio. Singh switched to English to repeat the same ghoulish framing and brought up COVAX to repeat the same question on letting people down. Freeland once again repeated that this was always part of the strategy.

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Roundup: The COVAX conundrum

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It was another day of less than optimal vaccine news yesterday – first a warning that there was going to be more fluctuation in future shipments including what appears to be another reduction in the next Moderna shipment (of which we’re still not sure the allocation yet), followed by news that we are in line for a shipment from the COVAX facility, which comes with its own particular special challenges.

Why? Because part of COVAX is to provide vaccines to the developing world, and it appears that Canada is accepting vaccines that would be going to them. Except that’s not the deal we signed – while we are funding vaccines for the developing world through COVAX (and will be sending our excess doses once our own population is vaccinated), part of the procurement diversification strategy was the stream under COVAX that we get some doses while also funding for the developing world. But of course, that wasn’t clearly explained – and the minister did have to do the media rounds to do that later in the day, by which it was too late, and you had everyone tut-tutting that we’re taking doses from those who need it more than we do. Which, incidentally, is happening at the same time that the government is being yelled at for not procuring more doses faster (as though yelling will make Pfizer’s retooling go faster or Moderna’s supply chain issues resolve themselves), and lo, we have doses that we paid for, but we’re going to look like jerks if we take them. Damned if we do, damned if we don’t. Good thing this government can communicate effectively. Oh, wait…

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QP: Disputing the vaccine math

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Another day of the Liberals only putting up Mark Gerretsen in the House, another day of their ongoing contempt for what Parliament means in the face of a pandemic – made worse by this being PMQ day, and the prime minister would only appear virtually. Erin O’Toole led off, in person, on Enbridge Line 5 once again, noting that Imperial Oil is making contingency plans to move the oil by rail if it is shut down, and demanded action. Justin Trudeau, appearing by video, assured him they were engaging with the Americans on Line 5. O’Toole insisted that Trudeau wasn’t engaged as it wasn’t mentioned in any of the readouts of his calls with top US officials, and Trudeau repeated that they are engaging on Line 5 and pointing out its importance. O’Toole pivoted to the front page of the Globe and Mail and its denunciation of the vaccine plan, and demanded a new one — err, which is mostly provincial jurisdiction. Trudeau reminded him of their strong procurement plan, and investments in domestic options. O’Toole changed to French to raise the issue of PnuVax not getting any domestic production contracts, to which Trudeau reminded him of all the domestic investments they made. O’Toole railed that no shipments arrived last week, to which Trudeau reminded him that there will be the fulfilled contracts by the end of the quarter, in spite of fluctuations week-to-week.

Yves-François Blanchet got up to lead for the Bloc, and he lamented the vaccine numbers before demanding the contracts be made public, to which Trudeau contested his assertions.  Blanchet wondered if he got any contracts about getting Pfizer doses from the US, to which Trudeau called out his fear-mongering, and said that they were working to ensure supply chains remain open.

Jagmeet Singh was then up for the NDP, and in French, he wondered why the government didn’t plan for domestic production a year ago, to which Trudeau reminded him that they did invest in domestic options from the very start. Singh accused the government of giving “mixed messages” on domestic production — which is not actually true — before repeating his question in English, for which he got the same response.

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Roundup: Domestic vaccine production…eventually

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There was a sliver of positive news yesterday, when it was announced that the federal government had signed a deal with Novavax to produce their vaccine in the future National Research Council facility in Montreal. The catch? That facility won’t be completed construction until summer, and then it will require Health Canada approval, so it may not be able to produce new doses until the end of the year – at which point, most Canadians should already be vaccinated using the Pfizer and Moderna doses we’ve contracted for. That doesn’t mean this facility still won’t be for naught – it’s possible we will need booster shots for the other vaccines, possibly do deal with different variants (and Novavax has shown success with the B.1.1.7 variant first spotted in the UK), and it also means that we will be able to produce for export to other countries who will need it.

Of course, this started back in on the same questions about why we weren’t able to produce vaccines domestically earlier, and why this plant is taking so long. Of course, this plant is actually moving faster than is usual – Good Manufacturing Practices facilities to produce vaccines usually take two or three years to build, not a single year, and there are several other facilities under construction across the country for other vaccine candidates. As for the same questions about why we didn’t contract to produce other vaccines here, it was because there were no suitable facilities – particularly from the approved ones. (This NRC facility was in talks to produce the AstraZeneca vaccine, but there is also talk about why the PnuVax facility in Montreal has not yet been tapped – but it may yet be for a future candidate once approved). And for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, we simply didn’t have facilities in this country that could produce mRNA vaccines to scale (most existing mRNA production was on a single-dose system for tailored vaccines used for treating particular cancers). And these are things we a) can’t build overnight, and b) didn’t know were even viable because it’s a new technology that had not yet been approved for a vaccine, especially on the scale of the one we’re dealing with now. It would have been a hell of a gamble to build a facility to GMP standards for a vaccine technology that may not have panned out.

Why I’m particularly annoyed about the return of these questions – particularly from the likes of Jagmeet Singh as he appeared on platforms like Power & Politics – is that they pretend that any vaccine facility can produce any vaccine, ignoring that not all vaccines are created equally, or that the technology to produce vaccines isn’t different across platforms. Singh’s notion that a nationalised vaccine producer should have been able to handle this is also farcical because again, what platform would it have bet on? All of them? It’s ridiculous and dishonest – as have been the demands to make the vaccine procurement contracts public (which no other country has done), because all that would do is allow other countries to look at what we paid, and then offer the companies more money to break the contracts with us. (And FFS, both Singh and Erin O’Toole are lawyers and should know this). The kinds of point-scoring that is taking place right now is getting to be beyond the pale, and it’s obscuring the actual kinds of accountability we should be practicing.

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Roundup: An investigation into Rideau Hall

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It was announced at the end of the day yesterday that the Privy Council Office would be launching a “thorough, independent and impartial” investigation into the claims of harassment and verbal abuse at Rideau Hall, and that this would be done with the cooperation of the Secretary to the Governor General, Assunta Di Lorenzo – whom these same complainants say was Payette’s abusive tag-team partner. Payette later tweeted that she takes workplace harassment “very seriously,” for what that’s worth.

Meanwhile, Philippe Lagassé explains why Governors General need to be uncontroversial and above reproach – which extends to how they comport themselves in office, which this current situation is certainly an example of. He also makes the very salient point that the prime minister needs to be directly involved in fixing this situation one way or the other, which can mean encouraging Payette that it’s time to “spend more time with her family.” Chris Selley longs for the days of a boring GG in office, citing David Johnston as the ideal when compared to the current example (and there is a good chapter on the criteria for selecting a GG in Royal Progress, written by Senator Serge Joyal, with the observation that the women selected for the roles have largely had media presences as opposed to governance experience).

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Roundup: Airports and capacity issues

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As the country heads further toward some kind of state of lockdown – school closure announcements went out in Alberta (but not Saskatchewan) – there is a great deal of garment-rending over what is happening at airports in particular, especially since it appears that there were only a handful of CBSA officers staffing the Toronto airport on Saturday night for hundreds of arrivals. There isn’t a lot of visible screening at airports because that’s proven to be largely ineffective (and most places are screening people before they get on planes), and the bigger message is communication around self-isolation, and some of that may depend on where travellers are coming from – it’s being stated that people arriving from countries with few infections aren’t being given as strenuous of warnings. There are complaints that this wasn’t being effectively communicated by CBSA officials over the weekend, or that some of their pamphlets contained dated information, which is possible, especially given that more measures were announced late Friday afternoon, and weekend capacity for many of these agencies is reduced. (Also it’s been recorded that one CBSA officer from the Toronto airport has been diagnosed with COVID-19, and I’m sure this will be the first of many). A lot of this should be about local public health officials’ communications efforts, rather than expecting CBSA to simply do it all, but I’m not sure that everyone who is freaking out online about this is necessarily understanding areas of jurisdiction and responsibility.

Justin Trudeau is set to announce further measures this afternoon following a Cabinet meeting on Sunday evening, which unfortunately saw a group of Cabinet ministers leaving the meeting being fairly inept at communicating that decisions were taken and that they need time to prepare their implementation (as self-righteous journalists and pundits melted down over Twitter). Apparently nobody understands that these is such a thing as capacity issues and that not everything can happen immediately, even in an extraordinary crisis situation as we appear to find ourselves in.

Meanwhile, here’s another Q&A with infectious disease specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch on what people should and should not be doing for social distancing. As well, here’s a look through some of the pandemic preparedness guides to show what things could look like if we reach a crisis point. Two infectious disease specialists wonder about the efficacy of draconian measures, particularly if they will spark “containment fatigue.”

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Roundup: Considerations for Teck

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We’ve been hearing a lot about the proposed Teck Frontier oilsands mine in northern Alberta lately, and demands by Jason Kenney and a number of Conservative MPs that its approval be fast-tracked as close to immediate as possible. Energy economist Andrew Leach has a few thoughts on the matter, particularly of how to reconcile Teck in the broader scope.

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