Roundup: Hoping it won’t be that bad (but it will be)

Because we’re in the middle of re-litigating the carbon levy yet again ahead of the Conservatives’ planned confidence vote, some familiar patterns are emerging, some of which are from the Elder Pundits who are, yet again, playing the “It won’t be that bad!” card, when in fact, yes it will be. Case in point was John Ivison reaching out to Ken Boessenkool, former Conservative advisor, to talk about the industrial carbon price, and Boessenkool (whose post-political career involves a lot of validating the Elder Pundits’ belief that it won’t be that bad) told him that the majority of those prices are provincially regulated, so they should remain intact. Which is not an assumption I would make because we have several provinces who believe that they can reach their reduction targets without any price (which is stupid), and they want to keep attracting investment, particularly in oil and gas, so they are likely to either greatly reduce their industrial price, or kill it altogether. This will in turn trigger a race to the bottom among other provinces, so the prices become useless. This is the whole reason why a federal benchmark and backstop were created—so that provinces couldn’t do that, and why the Supreme Court validated this as a legitimate exercise of federal powers. (Incidentally, Jenni Byrne disavowed Boessenkool after that piece went to print, which pretty much validates my point).

Meanwhile, other Elder Pundits are trying to write about the alternatives the Conservatives will use instead of the carbon levy, but even there, as they assert that while the levy is the best mechanism but there are others (because remember, they want to keep insisting it won’t be that bad), but that is a misread of what the Conservatives are actually promising, which is to tear up everything the Liberals have done, and rely on magic (in part because they don’t want to do anything, excuse themselves from doing anything by insisting that we’re only two percent of emission so what we do doesn’t matter, and any action they do take will only be “aspirational.”) For what it’s worth, the NDP also believe in the magic that they can only price carbon for corporations and it won’t be passed along to consumers, or that consumers won’t have to change any behaviour because corporations are evil. And it’s really, really depressing because the actions are having a difference, we have bent our emissions curve downward, and this is going to just upend everything for the sake of authoritarian populism, while the gods damned Elder Pundits tut-tut that the carbon levy must be bad because it’s unpopular, never mind that their refusal to understand of communicate it, or to refute the lies about it, have contributed to this situation. Good job, everyone. Enjoy your summers of wildfire smoke, and your melting icecaps.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians struck an apartment building in Kharkiv, wounding 21 civilians, as Ukraine destroyed 71 out of 80 attack drones overnight. There were also air strikes on Zaporizhzhia that injured 13 civilians. President Zelenskyy is hoping for faster action from the Americans, ahead of his visit to the White House, given that Ukrainian drone strikes have hit Russian arms depots, destroying thousands of tonnes of weaponry.

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Roundup: Giving up on 24 Sussex?

The big news that everyone was talking about yesterday was that the National Capital Commission is considering an alternate site for the prime minister’s residence than 24 Sussex, in part because of security considerations at the existing site (because apparently, we now also need to worry about reinforcing the roof with steel in the event of a drone strike). One of those sites could be in nearby Rockliffe Park, near the RCMP’s national headquarters, where something would need to be built from scratch, including the security arrangements. And before anyone suggests it, no, the prime minister cannot take over Stornoway because it would be even more impossible to secure than the 24 Sussex site is, and the RCMP would never allow it.

And because this was the story of the day, someone asked Pierre Poilievre about it, and of course, he gave the populist answer about how that would be the last thing on his priority list because he’s too busy worrying about middle class people getting houses. Obviously, that’s a rehearsed and tested media line, because his plans won’t actually get any more houses built than the current government’s plans, but hey, he lies about it with confidence, so people obviously believe him. He then went on to say that he would want something that’s able to be secured, but just “basic,” with possibly a separate site for hosting dignitaries, but let’s be real—we don’t really do luxurious official residences in this country, and the notion that we would be building some kind of lavish mansion is already pushing it.

The more salient point is that Poilievre’s populist noise is why we can’t have nice things, and why 24 Sussex was allowed to fall to such disrepair as to reach the point of total failure. We keep dining out on cheap outrage and hairshirt parsimony, and we pander to the too-large portion of the commentariat who thinks that if Ritz crackers and ginger ale are good enough for a church social, they’re good enough for international diplomacy. We keep increasingly marginalising ourselves on the global stage with our rinky-dink backwater antics like this, and we’ve allowed the official residence of our head of government fall to pieces because everyone is too afraid of the headlines (while self-righteous media outlets see absolutely nothing wrong with what they’ve enabled). What an absolute embarrassment we’ve allowed ourselves to become.

Ukraine Dispatch:

At least four people died in the Kherson region in the south as a result of mines and other explosives left behind by Russians; the commander of the southern front also reported continued progress pushing southward. The Russians claim that they destroyed a Ukrainian drone over the Black Sea.

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Roundup: Draft clean electricity regulations released

The federal government unveiled their draft clean electricity regulations yesterday, which would be the expectation they are setting for a 2035 clean energy grid—meaning there are twelve years for industry to work toward these targets and goals. And yes, there is still some provision for natural gas generation under certain circumstances for those who were worried. These are draft regulations, so there is now a consultation process for how they can be refined to address the concerns of provinces and territories, or industry players, so that hopefully things can be the best for all involved.

Of course, immediately Scott Moe declared this was impossible and that he’s not going to play, and Danielle Smith sulked and played the defiance card. None of this is impossible, and yes, there are unique challenges in both provinces, but immediately declaring defeat and that you’re going to sit this one out is petulant, never mind the wildfires and the droughts affecting both provinces (Saskatchewan especially on the latter). Remember that “entrepreneurial spirit” they have built an entire self-congratulatory myth around? Apparently, that only applies to the accident of geology of sitting on oil reserves, rather than the opportunity for developing an industry and job creation from the green transition. Funny that.

Meanwhile, Andrew Leach and Blake Shaffer have some threads on the announcement and what’s in them, the top post of each are below, so click through them.

Ukraine Dispatch:

A Russian missile struck a hotel in Zaporizhzhia that is frequently used by UN officials when they are in the area. Russians also destroyed a fuel depot in the Rivne region. Ukrainian officials have ordered the mandatory evacuation of some 12,000 civilians from the eastern Kharkiv region, where Russians are trying to punch through the front line.

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QP: Directly quoting selectively from the PBO

The prime minister was present once again, while his deputy was busy testifying at the public inquiry. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he worried about deficits causing inflation (which they’re not), and demanded a course correction. Justin Trudeau reminded him that they were there for Canadians during the pandemic in order to ensure it was less severe than other places on the world, and that our economy bounced back faster, and insisted that the Conservatives only want to cut. Poilievre switched to English to denounce alleged comments from Seamus O’Regan, and demanded they cut the carbon price. Trudeau dismissed the concern as twisting the words of minister, and pointed to the PBO report on the carbon price and how it helps eight out of ten families. Poilievre picked up that report and cited several numbers out of context to “prove” his talking points. Trudeau, looking rather pleased, insisted that Poilievre did not look at the section about the rebates, and called him out about not caring about climate change. Poilievre insisted that the rebates were “tiny” and didn’t cover costs—and was called out by the Speaker for using the report as a prop—and Poilievre went on a tear about how the price is ineffective and hurts people. Trudeau disputed that the rebates were tiny, and noted the other benefits they have delivered, noting that Poilievre is only playing rhetorical games. Poilievre tried to bring up the cost of the hotel for the Queen’s funeral and insisted that the report proved that people are being hit hard. Trudeau countered that the report shows that the rebates compensate most families more than they pay, because fighting climate change is important while Poilievre only wants to nickel-and-dime them.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he returned to the alleged contradictions in the reports about the Xi Jinping confrontation and demanded a return to the per-vote subsidy to prevent foreign funding. Trudeau clapped back that the Bloc only want the subsidy because they can’t raise money on their own. Therrien was incensed, and insisted that China was exploiting this vulnerability, and Trudeau countered that political financing is robust and transparent, and pointed out that the media are invited to his fundraising events, and encouraged other parties to do the same.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and decried the crisis in emergency rooms and demanded the federal government show up. Trudeau took exception to the insinuation he doesn’t care about children, and pointed out that they have transferred billions to provinces and are sitting down with provinces. Singh switched to French to repeat the question and got the same response.

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Roundup: First leadership deadline passes

We are now on or about day fifty-six of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia has been pouring more troops into their offensive in the Donbas region, and they are making a bunch of unverified claims about their strikes on Ukrainian targets (which should be taken with a salt lick’s worth of scepticism). As well, there were more missile strikes on the western city of Lviv, and Russia has given another ultimatum for the Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol to leave, but thus far there has been no sign that they will take them up on it.

Closer to home, the first deadline for the Conservative leadership contest has passed, and eight of the declared candidates have crossed the threshold of the $50,000 entry fee and the completed questionnaire. They have ten days to reach the next deadline of $300,000 in fees and 500 signatures, and thus far, only three of the candidates have crossed that threshold so far (and judging from the names of the eight remaining, most won’t make it either). Meanwhile, Pierre Poilivre’s camp claims that they have sold memberships in all 338 federal ridings, in order to claim that they have broad appeal, for what that’s worth.

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Roundup: The choice of patios over schools

Days after Ontario premier Doug Ford put on a dog and pony show of consulting scientists, health experts and educators about whether to re-open schools for in-person learning for the remainder of the school year, demanding consensus, Ford declared yesterday that he was going to cancel those classes – but he wanted all grades to have an outdoor graduation at the end of the year. This genius suggestion apparently came from a letter he got from a child, and he immediately headed to said child’s home to discuss it. That’s right, Ontario – not only is this province run by incompetent and unethical murderclowns, but they’re taking policy suggestions from literal children.

Pouring salt into the wound, Ford is now trying to push up his re-opening dates for the economy, immediately contradicting his handwringing that schools are too unsafe because of the variants of concern in the community, but those very same variants would be as much a threat to other businesses re-opening, so it’s neither credible nor cogent. And even if we’ve got good vaccination numbers, the hospitalisation and ICU numbers are still way too high to consider any kind of re-opening, or we’ll just repeat the same pattern we did with the previous two waves of this gods damned pandemic. But hey, he wants people to have a beer on a patio.

And we need to keep this in mind, especially when it comes time to hold Ford to account at the ballot box – he made these choices throughout the pandemic to delay, to take half-measures, to not make schools safe, to do simply try to blame-shift rather than act on areas that are under his responsibility, to sit on federal funds rather than spending them immediately and effectively to do things like expanding testing and tracing, and the economy wasn’t any better off as a result. It’s on him, as these were his choices.

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Roundup: O’Toole’s use of stock photos is telling

You may have noticed that Erin O’Toole has been launching a new social media campaign about the dire state of our economy, using stock photo images to illustrate his points. Over my years in journalism, I have come to be very wary of the use of stock images by parties in their advertising, because much of it is inherently deceptive or manipulative (aside from being cheap to slap into their products) – and I will fully credit Glen McGregor for this.

So, what have we seen with two of O’Toole’s posts? One of them was about January’s brutal job numbers, accompanied by a stock photo of a young white guy in a hoodie, looking somewhat distressed. The problem? Those same job numbers showed disproportionate losses among women and visible minorities because the most affected sectors were wholesale and retail trade, as well as accommodation and food services – which makes sense given all of the closures in the second wave. In other words, the images he put up was not only tone deaf, but speaks to just who he thinks his voter base will respond sympathetically to, which says a lot. (The only upside here is that he model was actually Canadian and not a Romanian, but when said model found out about it, he chimed in).

https://twitter.com/TunaPhish09/status/1359408430264377347

O’Toole posted another one yesterday about standing up for Canadian workers, using a photo of a (white) construction worker. But again, if you look at last month’s job numbers, construction jobs were actually up – they were the main driver of goods-producing jobs (which were a net gain rather than a net loss on the month). Again, though, this is about what O’Toole is signalling what kinds of jobs he thinks matters, and it’s not where the losses have been. As he starts to make a lot of noise about his recovery plans and supposed economic dream team, he is sending very loud signals about what he thinks the recovery should look like, and it appears to be pretty divorced from what everyone else thinks it should look like, and that is something worth paying attention to.

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Roundup: Not another Supreme Court reference

The medical assistance in dying bill is finally before the Senate’s legal and constitutional affairs committee, as the (extended) deadline approaches for it to be passed to comply with a Quebec court ruling, and we have justice minister David Lametti saying that there is always the possibility that they could yet refer this bill to the Supreme Court of Canada to get their judgment on whether it will meet the courts’ requirements. And I just cannot with this.

This is part of a pattern in this country where anytime there is a contentious or “moral” issue, parliamentarians of all stripes get afraid to put their necks on the line for something – no matter how right the cause is – and insist that the courts weigh in so that they can do the performative action of looking like they were dragged, kicking and screaming, into complying. They did this with lesbian and gay rights, they did this with safe injection sites, they did this with prostitution laws, and they did this with assisted dying – and in the cases of both prostitution laws and assisted dying, the laws drafted to replace those that were struck down were not going to comply with the court’s rulings, and yet they went ahead with them anyway so that they could force a new round of court challenges to really put on a show of kicking and screaming. It’s spineless, and it causes so much more unnecessary suffering (and in some cases, like with prostitution laws, deaths) when better laws could and should be drafted, but those MPs and senators who push for full compliance get sidelined by the skittish majority. And in the case of assisted dying, so many of those pushing to go back to the courts are simply seeking to re-litigate the action, which is not going to happen. A unanimous decision is not going to be scaled back on a second hearing.

While I am encouraged that Lametti did try to say that this option is not the best one, and his office later clarified that they have no plan to have yet another reference on assisted dying, but the fact that you have his clamour of people who don’t want to either make a decision, or who want to re-litigate the same issues, clamouring to send this back to the Supreme Court is disappointing. That parliament can’t respond to the Court’s ruling in a reasonable manner is one of the most irritating things about how we run this country, and it would be great if our MPs (and some senators) could forego the theatrics.

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Roundup: Demanding a de facto death penalty

It shouldn’t surprise me that Erin O’Toole would stoop to some pretty low places in order to score points with his base, and yet here we are, as he declares that the federal government’s plan to start vaccinating prisoners in federal institutions to be unpalatable.

There is so much wrong with this particular shitpost that one barely knows where to start, but let’s begin with simple logistics. The federal government has their own allocations of vaccine for people under their healthcare delivery jurisdiction, and that includes prisoners in federal penitentiaries. While O’Toole objects to them getting vaccines head of “any vulnerable Canadian,” he is ignoring that prisoners are absolutely a vulnerable population in a congregate living situation where there are currently outbreaks that are ongoing. Withholding vaccines from them is cruel, unusual, and unconstitutional. The Correctional Service of Canada has not handled the pandemic well. They’ve lied about the “extra sanitation” they’re doing, they have not provided adequate PPE for inmates or staff, and people who are exposed to the virus tend to be sent to solitary confinement, which we know has been declared a form of torture and a human rights violation. Not to mention, none of these prisoners were given a death sentence, which is what leaving them exposed in an outbreak could amount to.

This is the part where the usual right-wing commentariat starts trying to distill this into a false binary, that if you think prisoners should start getting vaccines right away, you “hate healthcare workers” and support “rapists, murderers, and paedophiles.” Never mind that for the vast majority of prisoners, their only real crime was being born poor, Black, or Indigenous, or some combination thereof. We know about over-policing and systemic racism, and that’s why a lot of them are in the system. Don’t fall for this kind of inflammatory rhetoric, because it’s designed to provoke – much like O’Toole’s shitpost.

And that’s the other part – vaccinating prisoners helps prevent community spread, from the guards, to the staff, and the surrounding communities. It’s a prison, but nothing is actually contained to the building. I would say it’s unbelievable that O’Toole doesn’t get it, but I’m sure he does – he’d rather provoke and throw some red meat to his “law and order,” “tough on crime” base who will reduce this to a simple binary and call it a day. But who needs facts, context, or nuance when you can shitpost your way to angry voters, right?

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Roundup: Budget cuts and accountability for advice

There was an interesting piece in the Globe and Mail yesterday where a couple of former top doctors enumerated some of the problems at the Public Health Agency of Canada that have been festering for years in spite of repeated warnings, which started creeping in with the budget cuts that started in 2011, and which were compounded with the loss of scientific capacity to the point where the president who just resigned had no scientific background at all. Which isn’t to say that you necessarily need someone with a science background in an administrative position like that (as opposed to the Chief Public Health Officer, which is a different kettle of fish entirely), but it points to some of the ways in which the civil service in this country has been losing capacity for a while. Suffice to say, it would appear to point to the fact that the current government wasn’t paying enough attention to what was going on at PHAC, though to be fair, there has been a fair bit on their plates, as they were dealing with medically assisted dying, legalised cannabis, and completely restructuring First Nations and Inuit healthcare delivery, which were all health-related files. The fact that emergency stockpiles weren’t being properly managed has come up repeatedly, but this does start with the cuts made under the Harper government.

Meanwhile in Queen’s Park (where premier Doug Ford made cuts to public health before the pandemic began), there is a piece in the Star that starts to ascertain just who is as the premier’s “health command table,” and ascertains that it’s Ford pulling all the strings and making all of the decisions. Which is as it should be – any “command table” should be merely advisory, because in our system of government, Cabinet makes the decisions, and Cabinet gets to wear them. I worry that trying to expose who is at this table will try to blame them for the advice they’re giving to Ford, rather than Ford making decisions on that advice – particularly when we’ve seen him ignore advice on things like school re-openings. There is a debate to be had about the transparency around the advice being given, so that we can ascertain whether or not Ford is actually following it, which I get, but I also wonder if there isn’t also a need for that table to be a place of frank discussion without it all coming out in the press – like why we have Cabinet confidentiality. And it’s a fair debate to be had, but again, let me reiterate that this is 100 percent on Ford, no matter what advice he may or may not be getting. That’s how Responsible Government works, and we need to quit finding ways to give Ford a pass, or an out on his shite decision-making.

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