Tag Archives: Foreign Policy

Roundup: The leaker comes forward (sort of)

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The big Friday bombshell from the Globe and Mail in their continued series of allegations of foreign interference was an op-ed from the primary leaker, who gave a self-serving justification for doing so, insisting that they were tired of the problem of foreign interference going ignored, and that they hoped to  ignite a conversation and that they didn’t intend for things to get this ugly. Erm, seriously? You leaked to Bob Fife, and you didn’t think he would torque the absolute life out of it? That seems dangerously naïve for an intelligence official. Even more to the point, their frustration with the pace of work is not justification for violating their oaths to secrecy (and comparing themselves to Jody Wilson-Raybould seems to be particularly ill-considered). There is an attitude of “I know best,” which former senior intelligence official Artur Wilczynski called “narcissistic,” and I did take that tone from the op-ed.

One of the things I’ve really come to recognise and have been building a series of columns around is that there is a pervasive normalcy bias in our governments at all levels. It’s why provincial governments inadvertently allowed their healthcare systems to collapse. It’s why we are now in a housing crisis nation-wide. It’s why our military was allowed to degrade, and it’s why successive governments of all stripes have not taken foreign interference seriously enough. We disbelieve and downplay threats and warnings because we’ve been sheltered for a century now under the wing of the Americans, and very little bad has happened to us in comparison to most other countries. We got lazy and complacent. That’s hard to shake, but I would say we’ve made more progress in the last five years than we have since the ned of the Cold War. And unfortunately, it’s probably going to take crises to shake us from our complacency (like what is happening in healthcare). Unfortunately, the crisis that this leaker precipitated has likely made the situation worse and not better because it’s now become a partisan battleground.

Speaking of partisan battlegrounds, yesterday we had the prime minister accusing Pierre Poilievre of “ginning up a partisan circus” and trying to take a flamethrower to our institutions in order to win power (not untrue), and Poilievre saying that the intelligence community is in full revolt because of Trudeau (and hey, it turns out it’s largely one narcissistic leaker). Trudeau also defended Johnston against the “horrific” partisan attacks, though Trudeau does deserve a measure of criticism for putting Johnston in this position. Johnston, incidentally, provided a statement saying he was working to finalise the details around his role and the mandate, so it looks like he is going ahead with it, concerns notwithstanding.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces continue to resist the Russians’ attempt to encircle Bakhmut. While this is happening, the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, for his war crimes but most especially for his programme of forcibly relocating Ukrainian children and working to re-educate them and place them with Russian families—a hallmark of a genocide. Meanwhile, Slovakia has now pledged their 13 MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine after Poland got the ball rolling.

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Roundup: Not recognizing one of our most important events

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Yesterday was Statute of Westminster Day, but you wouldn’t actually know it given how little attention it receives. My Apple calendar does mark the occasion, but how many people understand its significance? And they should, because it was probably the most significant development in our country’s constitutional history—arguably more significant than confederation itself, or of patriation in 1982. Why? Because the Statute of Westminster in 1931 was the creation of the Crown of Canada, as a separate and distinct entity from the Crown of the United Kingdom.

https://twitter.com/Canadian_Crown/status/1601987723476275202

This matters because it gave us control of our own foreign policy, and domestically, it centred the Governor General as taking advice only from the Canadian prime minister, no longer reporting to the UK’s foreign office like they used to do. There are fewer developments that are more important in how we have been able to operate independently as a sovereign country with our own sovereign at the head. So how did the various political parties mark the occasion, particularly in a year where the Crown of Canada has been in focus because of the transition to the new King?

Only the Conservatives put out a statement, and it didn’t even mention the Crown of Canada. So, that’s where we are. One of our most important constitutional developments as a country, left by the wayside. It’s a sad indictment of our history and civics knowledge that this happens year after year.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 292:

Odessa is mostly in the dark after Russian attacks, and it could take a month to restore their power grid. As the battle in the eastern part of the country grinds on, the city of Bakhmut is essentially destroyed. And a month after being liberated, Kherson is still in the process of clearing the booby-traps Russian forces laid for civilians in the area.

https://twitter.com/strategywoman/status/1602012251543982080

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Roundup: Botching the Asia-Pacific Strategy Rollout

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The federal government launched their long-awaited Indo-Pacific Strategy yesterday, which was, well, a choice. They launched it on a Sunday morning at the same time as Canada was playing in a World Cup match, and didn’t provide journalists with a technical briefing beforehand as the usually do (the technical briefing will be today, which is after the ministers have all made themselves available to the media), so they were basically flying blind about trying to figure out what’s in it as the media availability was happening. This should not have happened, and I suspect this was the old trick of trying to make announcements on a Sunday in order to try and set the agenda and tone for the week (the Conservatives used to be big fans of this, but the Liberals rarely did).

https://twitter.com/ChrisGNardi/status/1596943087930335233

What we know about it so far is that it’s two years after it was initially promised to be delivered, there’s a lot of back-patting about how this is a major foreign policy shift, and that they are going to re-engage through the region with some added spending, slightly more military engagement in the region (eventually), and maybe some intelligence operations in the area as well. I’m sure we’ll learn more later today, but yeah, the government made a lot of choices today in their communications strategy, and what do we say about this government’s communications strategies? That they can’t communicate their way out of a wet paper bag, and well, they proved that once again yesterday. Slow clap, guys.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1596925774044405760

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1596927851130851329

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 278:

There is a renewed evacuation of Kherson now that it has been liberated (though they are fleeing to Ukrainian-held regions and not Russian-held areas) as Russia has stepped up its attacks on the liberated city, while they deal with a loss of critical infrastructure. Power and water have been restored in Kyiv, but the mood is sombre as blackouts still continue because of the damage to infrastructure as winter is setting in.

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Roundup: Lost faith in the Ottawa Police Service

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Once again, a lot of threads to disentangle as the OPP Commissioner, Thomas Carrique, was on the stand at the Emergencies Act public inquiry, and what a lot of the day seemed to focus on (at least, from what I could tell from afar) were the texts he was exchanging with RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki. So, what did we learn? That the federal government had pretty much lost all confidence in the Ottawa Police and were discussing taking over the response to the occupation, even though Lucki was particularly reluctant to do so (and worried that the Emergencies Act would be used to make that happen). There was discussion about the OPP in particular taking over, and the Commissioner was ready to have that call before the Ottawa chief resigned. Once Peter Sloly was out of the way, an integrated command was set up. Also interesting was the comment that the Act was used to compensate tow truck drivers more than it was to compel their services (which could be a signal to the provinces about how they may need to update their own emergency legistlation).

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1585629449038577664

Carrique defended his comments that the occupation was a threat to national security, and the way that the blockade of the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor was handled differently than the Ottawa occupation. Documents provided to the inquiry showed that the FBI provided some support to the Ottawa Police during the occupation, likely around US-based support for it, so that lends some credence to the national security threat analysis.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1585720241979629569

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 246:

Ukrainian forces attacked Russian forces occupying the southern city of Kherson, while fighting also intensified in the country’s east as Russians bombarded the city of Bakhmut. While Putin is denying he plans to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine (isn’t that a sign he will?), another mass grave was discovered in the village of Kopanky.

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Roundup: Smith disqualifies herself on day one

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Her first day on the job, and Danielle Smith is already proving to be unsuited for public office. Shortly after being sworn-in as premier by the Lieutenant Governor, Smith held a press conference where she said that she wants to protect the unvaccinated, because they are the “most discriminated-against” group in her lifetime.

*deep breath, clenches fists*

No. Not even close. And let me tell you, it was a choice to say that on Coming Out Day. They are not discriminated against. There is no “segregation.” The unvaccinated are people who get to live with the consequences of making a selfish choice based on a bunch of junk “science” and conspiracy theories that they’ve consumed, and their reckless disregard for the vulnerable and immune-compromised. Those consequences? Not eating in restaurants or not getting to travel. A few lost their jobs because of the choice they made. Contrast this to actual discrimination that people suffer because of race, gender, sexuality, or disability. Consequences that include employment, housing, hate crimes, and even mass slaughter, and yes, this has all happened in Smith’s lifetime. This is her answering the grievances of the privileged, the entitled, and the selfish, and not having actually suffered discrimination, she lacks the basic self-awareness to know the difference between the two. This should be disqualifying.

Meanwhile, in Saskatchewan, Scott Moe unveiled his “white paper” on pushing back against so-called federal encroachment on the province, and well, I’ve read far more vigorous undergraduate papers in my day. The premise of said paper is that all environmental rules and regulations are just a ruse for keeping the province down, and controlling them, which is risible on its face. And the notion that Saskatchewan should somehow be a “nation within a nation” belies the fact that they don’t have a distinct language, culture, legal tradition, or pre-Confederation history. Calling hoodies “bunny hugs” is not a distinct culture. Resource extraction without concern for environmental consequences is not a distinct culture. Moe is doing some bad Jason Kenney cosplay, and it’s just pathetic.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1579907251221172224

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1579907677316345856

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 230:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with G7 leaders and asked for more air defences (to fend off future missile attacks like they faced this week), a price cap on oil and gas exports from Russia to cut off their funding, and an international mission at the Ukraine-Belarus border, presumably to keep any Belarussian forces out of the country. Some German air defence systems did arrive in the country yesterday, so they are starting to arrive as this ask is being made. Meanwhile, bodies are being exhumed from the mass graves outside of the city of Lyman, which was liberated from Russian occupation.

https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1579849665226629121

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Roundup: Allegations of interference still not adding up

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It’s day one-hundred-and-twenty-seven of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a major prisoner swap took place, securing the release of 144 Ukrainian soldiers, including 95 of the defenders of Mariupol. The majority of those prisoners swapped were badly wounded. It sounds like an equal number of Russian fighters, as well as so-called Donetsk separatists, were released as part of the swap.

https://twitter.com/smsaideman/status/1542174212378529794

Closer to home, we got another denial from Bill Blair about any interference in the Nova Scotia mass-shooting investigation, and he speaks reasonably authoritatively enough about knowing where the line is given his previous life as a police chief. And there is not a lot of things adding up around these allegations of interference, particularly that the forthcoming order-in-council around banning assault-style rifles, which they would have needed to work on for weeks or months, so it was pretty much baked-in by that point if it was announced days later, and they would have been in consultation with the RCMP over it. The notion that releasing the information could have jeopardized the investigation has been debunked, especially given that the shooter’s spouse could tell them all that information. To add to that, the PMO had already been given the information on the guns thanks to the National Security Advisor, so again, there wouldn’t have been any need for interference if that’s what you’re calling it. Now, we all know that the very first question reporters would have asked when the announcement on the OiC came down was whether the guns used in this shooting would be covered, so again, this seems like fairly basic disclosure that they knew was coming. And if anyone is clutching their pearls over the Liberals politicizing a mass shooting—which is actually appropriate—then they haven’t watched Question Period, where tragedies are politicised every single day. Also, not to be forgotten, the Justice Department isn’t holding onto documents on behalf of the government—they’re acting as the lawyers for the RCMP in this situation, so this likely has to do with the advice they are receiving from their clients. Again, the allegations that this is some kind of cover-up are not adding up.

But these issues aside, let’s be clear—the RCMP in Nova Scotia had just shit the bed. Massively. They didn’t disclose information that could have saved lives, they lied to the media, and they have been increasingly caught out about it, and a lot of this sounds like deflection, particularly because they are butthurt that Commissioner Lucki chewed them out about it. Like I said, stuff isn’t adding up about the supposed “interference,” but I would again remind you that we should not be credulously believing everything the RCMP are saying, particularly as they are in the middle of justifying and deflecting around what happened, and the fact that they were trying to keep from disclosing information unnecessarily.

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QP: Stuck on Repeat

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While in isolation for his COVID diagnosis, the prime minister pledged to appear virtually, and all of the other leaders were present for a change. Candice Bergen led off, script in front of her, and she went on a paean about telling the truth—which is rich coming from her—and demanded that the prime minister have Marco Mendicino step away from his job. Justin Trudeau, by video, read a list of people who stated at the time of the occupation who stated that their powers had been exhausted, which is why they invoked the Emergencies Act. Bergen outright demanded Mendicino’s resignation, and Trudeau reminded her police should not be able to grant themselves emergency powers, which is why government invoked the Act to give them powers that he listed. Bergen again demanded Mendicino resign, and Trudeau said that this was about the Conservatives trying to hope people forgot their support for the occupation. Bergen then pivoted to the bureaucrat who attended the Russian Embassy party, and Trudeau responded by saying he just got off the phone with Voldoymyr Zelenskyy, but did state that the attendance was unacceptable. Bergen said that the minister must be either dishonest or incompetent, and Trudeau repeated that he just spoke with Zelenskyy and that this did not come up because it wasn’t important in the grand scheme of what is Canada is doing for Ukraine.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he cited the Globe and Mail in saying that the government knew their GHG reductions targets were not credible. Trudeau disputed this, citing those who support the plan which he termed “realistic and ambitious.” Blanchet disputed their support and raised the “fantasy” of carbon sequestration, and Trudeau repeated the list of those who supported the feasibility of their plan.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he cited a survey response that one quarter of Canadians would not be able to afford their homes if interest rates go up—a figure I have serious doubts about—and demanded direct action to help people to keep their homes. Trudeau recited his talking points about the measures the government is taking to increase housing affordability. Singh repeated the demand in French, and Trudeau recited the French version of the same talking points.

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QP: An appalling display of revisionist history

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The prime minister had not planned on attending QP today, having just returned from the Summit of the Americas, but announced this morning that he had tested positive for COVID for the second time in six months, so we may not see him in the Chamber again before the Commons rises for the summer. None of the other leaders were present either, but the deputy prime minister was, for what it’s worth. Luc Berthold led off, and in French, he raised ministerial accountability, and asked whether the prime minister still believes that it applies to him and his Cabinet. Mark Holland replied with a simple “yes.” Berthold then raised the supposed confusion around what Marco Mendicino said about police “requesting” the use of the Emergencies Act (which he has never claimed), and whether that was still true. Mendicino stated that they invoked the Act to protect Canadians’ safety and that the RCMP Commissioner said it gave police the tools they needed, and that the government decided to invoke it after they consulted with police. Berthold, thinking he was clever, tried to claim that the prime minister’s story was “hanging by a thread,” as no police force had asked for it. (And they wouldn’t, because that would be highly inappropriate). Bertold asked whether the prime minister or his staff asked for the Act to be invoked, and Mendicino repeated that it was necessary, and wondered when the Conservatives would understand about the expenses associated with the illegal blockades. James Bezan took over in English, accused Mendicino of talking lessons in revisionist history from Vladimir Putin, and accused the government of declaring “martial law” on the occupation, which did not happen. (Just who is revising history here?) Mendicino took exception to this, and denounced Bezan’s comparison. Bezan railed that the government didn’t need to invoke the Act and that the minster’s story kept changing. Mendicino pointed out that Candice Bergen egged on the occupiers, which was a problem.

https://twitter.com/journo_dale/status/1536413940875415552

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and declared that French is the only official language in North America under threat from English, and demanded that the federal government adopt Quebec’s amendments to the official languages bill. Ginette Petitpas Taylor stated that they recognise the decline, which is why they brought forward their bill. Therrien decried that this was about official bilingualism, which is killing French, and Petitpas Taylor praised her bill and hoped it would royal assent soon.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, in person today, and he decried that the government was cutting EI and child benefits for Canadians (which is stretching the truth). Chrystia Freeland recited her talking points about raising taxes on banks and insurance companies to help pay for the recovery. Jenny Kwan took over in English to repeat the question frame in English and demanded that the government enrich the Canada Child Benefit and double the GST credit. Freeland listed measures that they have taken this year.

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Roundup: A lack of precognition

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We’re now on day one-hundred-and-seven of Russia’s invasion of Ukriane, and I couldn’t find any stories to link to on Canadian sites, as everything was about the January 6th committee in the US, because priorities. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s agriculture minister told the Canadian House of Commons agriculture committee that Russia has been raiding Ukraine’s grain stores, and then selling it on the world market using falsified documentation. As well, the RCMP say that they have cracked down on $400 million in Russian assets and transactions from sanctioned individuals.

https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1534832733637287936

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1534808012962947072

Closer to home, the Bank of Canada released their Financial Systems Review yesterday, and made remarks about some of the vulnerabilities in the economy, such as high consumer debt levels and variable rate mortgages rising precipitously in the next few months as interest rates continue to rise in order to get inflation under control. They are confident the economy and households can handle the higher rates because the economy needs them.

This being said, I have to take some exception to the commentary happening on Power & Politics last night, and from the host in particular, who was expounding upon how central bankers got it “wrong” about inflation. Apparently they are supposed to have the power of precognitition and could accurately predict the fact that global supply chains would take longer to untangle than previously thought because China went into some serious lockdowns under a COVID-zero policy, that fuel shortages would drive up world oil prices before the Russia invaded Ukraine, and they were supposed to have properly foreseen said invasion and could adjust their inflation expectations accordingly. There have been an increasing number of unlikely scenarios that all pretty much happened across the world over the past two or three years, and you’re ragging on central bankers for not having properly tried to head it off? You can argue that they were too late to ease off on stimulative measures, even though their actions were largely in line with the advice and the data they had at the time, but going after them because they didn’t accurately predict a pandemic and a war? Sit down.

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Roundup: Extremism on our own doorstep

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It is on or about day eighty-three of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and though the Ukrainian forces have pushed some Russian troops back to the Russian border near Kharkiv, it appears that they have given up the fight for Mariupol, and that Russian troops in the steel plant are being evacuated. We’ll see how much of this is confirmed in the next few days. Meanwhile, here is a look at the aftermath of the fighting in villages surrounding Kharkiv as people start to see what is left.

Elsewhere, Putin gave a calm response to Finland and Sweden’s decision to apply for NATO membership, saying that there is no threat to Russia if these states join. So that’s…interesting. Finnish and Swedish troops will be taking part in a NATO military training exercise in Estonia (which has apparently been in the works for years).

Closer to home, there has been a lot of handwringing about the mass shooting in Buffalo, and the role that white supremacy and violent extremism play here in Canada, and the conspiracy theory of “white replacement theory” playing its own role in our politics (Hello, Andrew Scheer!). This also led to more sniping between Conservative leadership candidates, with particular focus on Pierre Poilievre, who has aligned himself with some of these characters in his support for the occupation in Ottawa. With that in mind, here is a thread full of receipts from Stephanie Carvin, selectively quoted below so click through to read the whole thing (and bonus threads here from Jessica Davis, and here from Amarnath Amarasingam that are also worth considering).

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1526302228868374528

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https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1526302236074250242

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