Roundup: Wildfire evacuations have begun

It’s absolutely insane to think that it’s not even Victoria Day, and we are in the middle of evacuations in northern communities because of wildfires. Several neighbourhoods in Fort McMurray, Alberta, have been evacuated—all neighbourhoods that were decimated by the fires in 2016. Fort Nelson, BC, has been evacuated, as has Cranberry Portage, Manitoba, while the premier toured the area.

Meanwhile in BC, a former forestry minister has co-authored a report calling for better integrated government management of these fires in the province, but also points to things like the plans for Indigenous communities to do controlled burns as they used to have not reached levels that would be meaningful, nor have “broadcast burns” from forestry companies, and recommendations for how forestry can better leave sites less susceptible to fire are not being implemented. One has to wonder what the delay is considering how much worse wildfire season gets every year.

Amidst all of this, we still see certain political parties steadfastly refuse to believe this is the result of climate change, and will instead say things like “the carbon price didn’t prevent a single fire” as though that’s how the price is designed to operate, or you have them spreading the conspiracy theories that agents of the prime minister have been setting these fires, because reasons. It’s not good.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine’s forces have pulled back in two new positions near Kharkiv as the Russians advance. Russians conducted air strikes on residential areas of Kharkiv. There is speculation that the move on Kharkiv is merely a ploy to pull forces from elsewhere on the front lines, as they have more of an interest in solidifying their gains in Donetsk. AP spent some time with a drone unit in the region, working to slow the Russian advance.

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Roundup: Explain, but don’t explain

Because everything is so stupid, we’re seeing pushback about Justin Trudeau’s explainer video about the changes to the capital gains inclusion rate, and the thrust is that “If you’re explaining, you’re losing,” so therefore Trudeau shouldn’t need three minutes to explain the policy. I mean, he could probably just say “The current tax rules allow people to engage in tax arbitrage and we think that we should close those loopholes,” but he has a “narrative” about these changes.

Nevertheless, I cannot abide this bullshit about “explaining/losing” because it means that this government never explains, and that’s one of the reasons why the Conservatives have such an easy time lying about everything this government does under the sun—if they don’t explain, they hope the media will do it for them, but legacy media almost never does, because they would rather just both-sides what each party says and leave it at that, which lets disinformation just lie there in the open unchallenged. This is terrible for democracy, but this is where we are, apparently.

Meanwhile, new Conservative MP Jamil Jivani went on a rant about people with PhDs in his railing about the carbon levy, but dude has a law degree from Yale. It’s his whole life story, about how he went from being illiterate and pulling himself up by his bootstraps to attending one of the most elite schools in the US. Oh, and while he was there, he was seeking out the expert opinion of PhDs for his research. Funny how he’s now dismissing them because Poilievre wants to playact being a common, working man. It’s amazing how people swallow this nonsense.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian forces continue to press their attack against the Kharkiv region, as Ukrainian police are helping to evacuate civilians from the area. Ukrainian security forces say they have thwarted attempted bombings in both Kyiv and Lviv. Because of the damage to power infrastructure, Ukraine is being forced to import record amounts of electricity.

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QP: Back-patting on the global fiscal position

The prime minister was present for proto-PMQ day, though his deputy was not. All of the other leaders were in the Chamber, and Pierre Poilievre led off in French, recited his slogans, and turned that into a question about rent in Montreal, blaming it on so-called “inflationary policies.” Trudeau suggested that Poilievre share facts instead of disinformation to stoke anxiety, and praised their international fiscal position. Poilievre mocked the notion that he is spreading disinformation, and continued his rant about rent. Trudeau again repeated their strong fiscal position, and how they were using that position to help families. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his slogans and cherry-pick a few down economic statistics, to which Trudeau again praised using their strong fiscal position to help people when they need it. Poilievre accused him of spending the most to achieve the worst, and Trudeau dismissed this as coming from a former “housing minister” who didn’t believe in investing in housing, before touting what the government is investing in. Poilievre padded his record as minster, and again cherry-picked certain statistics. Trudeau asked if they should be investing in Canadians,or cutting their services.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, mentioned the controversy of Francis Drouin’s comments at committee, before worrying about funding of French-language universities. Trudeau noted that Drouin apologised before pointing out that the Bloc don’t care about French outside of Quebec. Blanchet took another swipe at Drouin, and Trudeau said this was the Bloc attacking Franco-Ontarians.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and with a hoarse voice, accused the government of giving “big grocery” a free ride, and demanded they do something. Trudeau took up a script to praise their competition reforms, the grocery code of conduct, and the school food programme. Singh repeated the question in French, and got the same response in French.

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Roundup: The First Hogue Report

On a very busy Friday, Justice Marie-Josée Hogue released the first report of the foreign interference public inquiry, to some moderate fanfare. Much of it was broadly what was in the Johnston report, but with some more nuance, which left some of it open to degrees of interpretation, some partisans claiming it proves there was meddling, others leaning on the parts where she said that what there was wasn’t enough to amount to changing an election outcome, and there certainly wasn’t some grand effort by China to win the election for the Liberals. At most, it might have cost Kenny Chiu his seat, and there remained questions about Han Dong’s nomination, but even there, there wasn’t a lot of evidence to prove or disprove anything one way of the other.

To that end, key points, and five things from the report. It wasn’t just China, but India, Pakistan, Iran, and a few others. Some candidates in the 2019 election “appeared willing” to engage in foreign interference, with more staff members implicated, around advancing the interests of China, but there weren’t any firm conclusions about who much any foreign interference actually tipped the scales in any one riding. The government also announced that they are tabling legislation on Monday, which is likely to include the foreign agent registry, and possibly some updates to CSIS’ mandate and powers.

Justice Hogue did make a couple of comments about nominations being a possible gateway for foreign interference, but that’s something that would be hard for governments or agencies to do much to involve themselves in because of how parties operate as private clubs, by necessity. That said, as I wrote in this column a couple of weeks ago, open nominations are practically extinct in the current moment so perhaps there isn’t that much danger after all.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Debris from destroyed drones fell on Kharkiv, injuring three and starting a fire. Russia says it has pushed Ukrainians back from 547 square kilometres so far this year, as Americans delayed their crucial aid shipments.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1786364727032971377

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Roundup: Tiff Macklem goes to committee

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem appeared before the Commons’ finance committee yesterday, and reiterated that a decision on a rate cut is getting close, which should be good news to (most) everyone—most especially the government. There were a couple of other interesting things he said, which is that we’re not beholden to matching the US’ rate, but at the same time, we can’t diverge too much, or we would face currency devaluation.

The Conservatives have been clipping his appearance at the Senate’s banking committee the day before, claiming that he said that the federal budget and its deficit are fuelling inflation, which isn’t what he said. He said that the budget won’t have any impact on inflation, because any increased spending is balanced out by higher revenues—but they clipped the part about revenues off, because deceit is their current modus operandi.

https://twitter.com/jasrajshallan/status/1786033120690544860

And because of where the discourse is at, Macklem had to once again point out that the carbon levy is not having an impact on inflation, and that if you “axed” it, there would be a small one-time drop in inflation that would disappear the next year (because inflation is a year-over-year measure), and it wouldn’t really change much—a message that Conservatives don’t like to hear, or who like to fudge, because it messes with their narrative that said levy had driven people into poverty (which is not true). But seriously, how many times does he need to say this?

Ukraine Dispatch:

Guided bombs hit close to a sports complex in Kharkiv, injuring eight children. The tally is that Russia fired more than 300 missiles, around 300 drones, and over 3200 guided bombs against Ukraine in April. Russia has massed its forces, and they are making a concerted push along all of the front lines in Donetsk, though Ukraine is holding them off for the time being, though they are forced to be judicious with their ammunition until more can arrive. Here is a look at the state of minefields in Ukraine, where they are now one of the most mined countries in the world.

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Roundup: Back to challenging the Speaker once again

Not unexpectedly, a number of MPs have renewed the call to oust Greg Fergus from the Speaker’s chair after Tuesday’s dramatics during Question Period. For the Bloc, who soured on Fergus shortly after his election and his recording a video in his robes, they’re complaining that he can’t control the room, which is a bit unfair because MPs themselves have hobbled the Speaker’s ability to enforce decorum by giving him narrow powers in the Standing Orders. This logic also ignores the culpability of those who are making the noise—the Speaker isn’t making them behave like that. And for the record, Fergus says he’s not stepping down.

For the Conservatives, however, they are playing the victim, as is a common far-right tactic these days, and claiming that he had a double standard on Tuesday. Their proof—that prime minister Justin Trudeau wasn’t forced to retract or get named when he referred to Poilievre’s “spineless leadership” in not denouncing far-right extremists and Alex Jones. Note that the language Trudeau used was that the leadership was spineless, he did not call Poilievre that. And he was warned about inflammatory language, and he rephrased. Poilievre called Trudeau “whacko,” which was is a direct attack, and then refused to withdraw the word when instructed to—and again, the prevarication and wheedling of trying to replace the word is not respecting the Speaker’s authority, especially when invited to simply withdraw four times. There is a difference between what each leader said and how each responded, and if Conservatives can’t tell that difference, then they have a real problem with their critical thinking skills, which isn’t a good thing for an MP.

There was added drama when Conservative MP Rachael Thomas, who now claims that she withdrew her remarks yesterday but was ejected anyway, and more to the point, says that Hansard was edited to justify Fergus’ decision. Recall that Fergus was cautioning her for yelling at him during an outburst, to which she shot back “I have big problems with the Chair.” Fergus told her to withdraw that, to which Thomas’s response was “Mr. Speaker, I stated that the Chair is acting in a disgraceful manner,” and then says that she added “I withdraw,” which is also in the Blues (meaning the unedited transcripts before they go for final polish). But I was sitting right above her, and didn’t hear her say “I withdraw,” but even if she did, you can’t challenge the Speaker again and then just say “I withdraw” and expect no consequences. That’s not even like a qualified apology, it’s openly challenging a second time, and then trying to give yourself a fig-leaf of cover. That’s bullshit, and she knows it.

To put a cherry on top of this, CBC dug up video of then-Speaker Andrew Scheer saying you can’t challenge the integrity of the Speaker, which includes allegations of partisanship, and lo, what are they doing now? Rules for thee but not for me is very much their modus operandi, and it’s not great for democracy.

Ukraine Dispatch:

A Russian ballistic missile struck a postal depot in Odesa, injuring fourteen and starting a huge fire, and Russians claim to have struck Ukraine’s southern command post in the same attack. There was also a guided bomb attack in the Kharkiv region, killing two in an attack on the village of Zolochiv, while there was also an attack on the town of Hirnyk near the front lines, which killed at least two more people. Drone footage shows the way that Chasiv Yar has been devastated by Russian bombardment as the move toward it, while Ukrainian forces in that area say they badly need more ammunition. The US is accusing Russia of breaking international chemical weapons ban by deploying choking agent chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops.

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Roundup: Soft-pedalling the extremist camp

It has been very interesting to watch how legacy media outlets have been covering Pierre Poilievre’s appearance at a “tax revolt” encampment on the Nova Scotia border, but also very, very predictable. For example, they take at face value that this is some kind of “anti-carbon tax” protest, much as they did during the Occupation of downtown Ottawa, but don’t actually who all of the participants are. While they may note that there are Diagolon signs, none of the outlets mentioned that much of this encampment is made up of adherents to the “sovereign citizens” movement, which is a dangerous movement that believes that with some special incantations, they can opt themselves out of laws or obligations like paying taxes. That’s kind of a big deal to be overlooked.

Somewhat hilariously, they all got the vapours over the fact that Poilievre said of Justin Trudeau “People believed his lies. Everything he said was bullshit, from top to bottom.” *gasp!* No mention of course that this was projection, that everything that Poilievre says is lies and bullshit, because they couldn’t possibly. And then it veered off to Trudeau’s response that this is a sign that Poilievre will do “anything to win,” and the whole stupid thing about not disavowing Alex Jones, which seems to be the wrong thing to try and hang this whole thing on. The matter is not that Poilievre is getting the endorsement of the biggest conspiracy theory charlatan in the United States, but rather that he is courting far-right extremists and making false promises to them that he can never keep, and that will have consequences down the road.

This being said, I also find it somewhat predictable that all of the conservatives who had a field day with the head of Hamas thanking Canada for a UN vote—which was a clear information operation—are now whinging and crying about the Alex Jones attention, and saying that Poilievre doesn’t follow him so he shouldn’t need to denounce him. I mean, good for the goose and the gander here, but if you think one is legitimate to make hay with, the other should be fair game as well by your own rules of engagement. Neither of you should make hay over these things, but consistency would be nice.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian missiles struck residential buildings in Kharkiv, injuring six people. Ukraine launched its own drone attack against a major Russian steel factory in Lipetsk region, and partially destroyed an “oxygen station” that should do long-term damage wo their work. Ukraine’s government has also clamped down on military-aged men applying for passports as they try to deal with their mobilisation woes.

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Roundup: Premiers want unconditional money

The premiers are at it again. They’ve written yet another letter to Justin Trudeau to complain about the budget, and all of the ways that it infringes on their jurisdiction, and to call for a return to a “cooperative approach” that means just giving them “unconditional federal funding.” (It was also hilarious to watch certain premiers complain about federal spending as though they also weren’t running their own deficits, while simultaneously demanding more money from the federal government). And I get that they’re concerned that the costs of these new programmes will be downloaded onto them if a future federal government cuts their funding—it’s a legitimate concern. But at the same time, most of these programmes will have longer-term payoffs, whether it’s child care (which Quebec has proved will pay for itself), or pharmacare or dental care, which has the potential to reduce overall healthcare costs—costs the government is going to have to pay when they could have avoided doing so with proper investments.

Nevertheless, it’s not lost on me that we’ve spent years of people saying “nobody cares about jurisdiction,” and demanding the federal government do something—including some of the premiers—and when the federal government not only does something but attaches strings so that the money has to go to particular outcomes, those same premiers immediately go “No, not like that.” But once burned, twice shy—the federal government learned the hard way during the height of the pandemic when the billions they sent to the provinces largely went unspent but went toward their provincial deficits—so they’re going to very much demand strings attached to those dollars. So, of course the federal government is going to do what they can seeing as they’re shouldering the blame anyway, while the premiers continue to be precious about it.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian missiles destroyed grain storage facilities in Odesa, as well as the foodstuffs they contained that were bound for Asia and Africa. Ukrainian forces say they shot down a Russian strategic bomber, while Russia claims it crashed due to a malfunction. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the command post used by the troops defending Chasiv Yar in the east.

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1781227417404600676

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QP: Bizarre accusations, crying about being shushed

As the countdown to the budget release was underway, neither the prime minister nor his deputy were present, and while she had the excuse of being in the budget lock-up meeting with journalists, I’m not sure the PM’s excuse. Most of the other leaders were also present, and Pierre Poilievre led off in French, read off his slogans, and then claimed that the “millionaire prime minister’s” friends who never pay for the cost of his spending, but welders and single mothers. François-Philippe Champagne insisted that the Conservatives have no vision and no plan, and nothing but new slogans, while a country that has ambition is one that invests. Poilievre insisted that their vision was to replace his boss, and complained about the size of the debt and deficit. Champagne noted that slogans don’t build homes, pave roads, or create jobs. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his slogans, and railed that seniors and single mothers who foot the bill for the government spending and not their “wealthy friends.” Anita Anand listed supports for people while remaining fiscally prudent. Poilievre listed other “working class” people that he is in support of, and Anand repeated her same assurances. Poilievre insisted that the Liberals are the problem and not the solution, but Sean Fraser took this one, mocked Poilievre’s statements about electricians capturing lighting or welders using their bare hands, and suggested he talked to people with real jobs—as Poilievre walked out during said answer.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, claiming that Quebec was being “cheated” out of housing funds, and demanded they pay their fair share of housing funds immediately. Fraser said that the Bloc are not defining housing policy in Quebec while they have an agreement with the provincial government to build 8,000 homes. Therrien demanded a second time, and this time Pablo Rodriguez got up to rant about the Bloc not doing anything but pick fights.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and praised Biden’s policies in the US, to which Champagne took issue with the premise, and praised their work in fixing competition in the country. Laurel Collins complained that the government wasn’t going to implement a windfall tax on oil and gas companies. Jonathan Wilkinson got up to list the measures they are taking to reduce emissions. 

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QP: Another slogan to “fix” the budget

While both the prime minister and his deputy were in town, they were not present for QP, though most of the other leaders were present. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and listed off his slogans before noting that the government was spending more on interest on the debt than healthcare, and demanded the government take is “dollar-for-dollar” plan to “fix the budget.” Sean Fraser wondered if it was common sense or nonsense to cut programmes to help people. Poilievre took a swipe at Fraser for his alleged incompetence around immigration numbers, which “doubled” housing prices, and demanded the government reduce the deficit and interest rates. François-Philippe Champagne recited that Poilievre only built six affordable housing units when he was “housing minister” (which he wasn’t really), and that they wouldn’t take any lessons. Poilievre switched to English to misquote a Scotiabank report claiming government deficits were adding two points to the interest rates, to which Fraser accused him of knowing the cost of everything and the value of nothing in his opposition to programmes to help people. Poilievre insisted there was no value in food programmes that don’t exist or the doubling of the cost of housing, and repeated his same misleading declaration about interest rates. Fraser needled Poilievre about the number of affordable units lost when he was “minister” and the number of houses that weren’t built. Poilievre accused Fraser of being incompetent as immigration minister before being named housing minister, and then gave some misleading nonsense about rental prices when he was “housing minister.” Fraser took a shot at the Conservatives for opposing the resettlement of Afghan refugees who had helped the Canadian Forces, and after the Speaker finally restored order, repeated the points about Poilievre’s housing record.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and complained that Quebec didn’t get their fair share of housing funds, to which Pablo Rodriguez talked about the Bloc’s lack of priorities as they keep demanding referendums while the government is investing. Therrien tried his complaint again, and Fraser insisted that they were working with the province to ensure they would get their fair share.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he railed about corporate handouts to companies like Loblaws, and wanted the government to roll back Conservative policies. Champagne thanked him for his help in reforming competition law, but said they still needed support to get the Grocery Code of Conduct passed. Singh switched to French to demand an excess profits tax on grocery giants, and Champagne repeated his response.

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