So, the fight over Bill 21 in Quebec is gaining some traction now that there have been real-world consequences, and a bunch of MPs (mostly Conservatives) who previously said nothing about it—and who previously supported odious things like “barbaric cultural practices tip lines” and “Canadian values tests”—are now speaking up and recanting previous positions. Which is good, but while everyone is hoping for some kind of federal response or action on the legislation, I’m not sure there is an actual avenue. Consider this from constitutional law professor Carissima Mathen:
https://twitter.com/AaronWherry/status/1469013986142298114
This is essentially what Justin Trudeau has been saying—he’s opposed to it, but this isn’t the time for the federal government to step in. That time will be when the fight reaches the Supreme Court of Canada, because then they have a legitimate avenue to be an intervenor in the case. Until then, they can say they oppose it—and they have much more so than other parties—but they’re also not making wild symbolic actions that won’t mean anything. And while both Erin O’Toole and Jagmeet Singh say they are personally opposed (and Singh has a legitimate dog in this fight), Singh has been somewhat blank on actions a federal government could take, while O’Toole made it clear he wouldn’t interfere in any way because a) provincial jurisdiction, and b) he’s spent his entire leadership trying to suck up to François Legault and out-Bloc the Bloc, for all of the good it did him in the election. And there are demographic considerations that play into the political calculations as well:
I'm going to define Montreal* = the Island of Montreal + Laval. 32.2% of Montreal* residents are immigrants, and 30.9% are visible minorites. This is more than the Canadian average (21.9 and 22.3), but less than Toronto CMA (46.1 and 51.4) or Vancouver (40.8 and 48.9)
2/
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) December 11, 2021
But Montrel* is only 30% of the Quebec population. Once you step off the shores of Montreal*, you're in a very, very different world. For one thing, it's massively francophone (94% mother tongue, 60% unilingual), and startling homogeneous. 4/
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) December 11, 2021
Everyone outside Hérouxville* had a good laugh when the Hérouxville (no asterisk) municipal council passed its famous code of conduct for their (as yet nonexistant) immigrants. But Quebec politicians not based in Montreal saw an opportunity. 6/
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) December 11, 2021
All other politicians have now re-done their math. Most of Montreal* is unshakeably Liberal (fed and prov). They know now that if they want to play in the 75% of the ridings outside Montreal*, they have to play by Hérouxville's rules. 8/
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) December 11, 2021
Coda: 2018 election results
Montreal*: PLQ 24, QS 6, CAQ, 3 PQ 0
Hérouxville*: CAQ 71, PQ 10, PLQ 7, QS 4— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) December 11, 2021
Meanwhile, Chantal Hébert, lays out the political calculations and options for Trudeau and O’Toole when it comes to challenging Bill 21. Paul Wells adds a boatload of more context to the situation both federally and in Quebec, and gives some sharper thoughts as to why the federal government has vanishingly few levers but nevertheless has options.