Tag Archives: Energy East

Roundup: Triumphalism after a defection

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Andrew Scheer took the occasion of caucus day yesterday to give another lap of triumphalism in order to crow about Leona Alleslav’s defection to his party, calling her a symbol of “misplaced trust” by Canadians in Justin Trudeau. And, feeling his oats, he told Trudeau to “bring it on” when it comes to defending a carbon tax in the next election. Now, cheerleading films aside, Scheer may want to be very cautious about his plan to go full-bore on the carbon tax attack, given that those provinces who have decided to fight the plan and have the federal government impose their backstop price instead may find that instead of their citizens benefitting from lower income taxes or provincial rebates, they’ll instead be getting their rebate cheques from the federal government, which is a pretty visceral thing for most people. Add to that, a study coming out next week says that it’s likely that people will be getting more back in those rebate cheques than they paid into carbon taxes because of dividends from industrial emitters being returned to individuals, which could be a blow to the message that Scheer is trying to send about affordability.

In amidst this, Scheer has been trying to press the case for Energy East, demanding that Trudeau bring Trans Canada back to the table in order to discuss reviving the project. The problem, of course, is that there is no economic case for Energy East. At one point, it was seen as a viable route to tidewater with no others in the works, but that changed with the approval of Trans Mountain (err, temporarily delayed right now), and Keystone XL, which Trans Canada also is the proponent of, and there wasn’t enough product to fill both KXL and Energy East, so they focused on the more viable project – KXL. Scheer has also tried to insinuate that Energy East would displace Saudi oil in Eastern Canada, but that’s also not true, given that the whole point was for it to be a pipeline to tidewater. Saudi oil is cheaper to import than for Alberta oil to ship by pipeline, not to mention that there are no upgraders or refineries in the East capable of handling heavy crude from Alberta (again, unlike KXL, where those kinds of refineries line the Gulf coast). The Irvings themselves said that Energy East wouldn’t stop the flow of Saudi oil to Canada, but Scheer is trying to play the economic nationalism card, and is stretching the truth along the way.

Meanwhile, Chantal Hébert warns Scheer that if he plans to make immigration an issue over the coming year, he may want to pay attention to what’s going on in Quebec, where it’s turning out to be something of a poisoned chalice for the CAQ in the provincial election.

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QP: Supply Managed Pipelines

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After a morning of caucus meetings, the benches were full in the Commons as everyone was ready for the first photo-PMQs of the fall. Andrew Scheer led off in French, mini-lectern on desk, and he read about the “failure” of the Trans Mountain pipeline. Trudeau responded with the tired trope of the environment and the economy going together, before saying they would consult Indigenous people again, and that the Conservatives only wanted to minimize environmental protection. Scheer reiterated the question in English, got the same response, and Scheer then insisted that their government got four pipelines built and accused the government of trying to phase out the oil sector. Trudeau responded with his talking points about economic growth rates. Scheer railed about the $4.5 billion sent to Texas investors, while Trudeau said that the Conservatives must be content to see the project fail because it his government hadn’t bought it, the project would be dead in the water. Scheer ditched his script for the final quote is on, and demanded the prime minister scrap the environmental assessment bill. Trudeau retorted that the Conservatives didn’t have any plans to do anything they demanded. Guy Caron led off for the NDP and railed about Supply Management, and Trudeau repeated his talking points about supporting the system. Caron tried again, got the same answer, and then Ruth Ellen Brosseau took a turn, and she too got the same response. Alaistair MacGregor repeated the question yet again in English, with a Vancouver Island spin, and wouldn’t you know it, he too got the same response from Trudeau, before he repeated his new quip that the Conservatives will sign any deal no matter how bad.

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QP: Not misleading, just misinformed

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On a cooler and less humid day in the nation’s capital, things proceeded apace in the House of Commons, and there was far less drama to start off the day. Andrew Scheer led off, mini lectern on desk, demanding to know why the counter-tariffs the government collected haven’t been funnelled directly to business that have been affected by the US tariffs. Justin Trudeau responded that the government was supporting affected industries, but also things like innovation. Scheer then started on his “failure” talking points with regards to the Trans Mountain pipeline, to which Trudeau shot back about the ten years of failure from the previous government, particularly around respecting First Nations. Scheer switched to English to ask again, and Trudeau insisted that growing the economy and respecting both the environment and Indigenous communities went hand in hand. Scheer railed about pipelines line Energy East not getting built, and Trudeau stepped up his rhetoric about not respecting First Nations. Scheer then spun a bunch of nonsense about carbon taxes, and Trudeau didn’t correct Scheer’s mischaracterisation, but responded with some platitudes about paying for pollution. Guy Caron was up next to lead for the NDP, and concern trolled about the effect on Supply Management with TPP, to which Trudeau insisted they were keeping the system intact. After another round of the same, Tracey Ramsey repeated the questions in English, and got much the same response from Trudeau, who added that they got better a better deal than the Conservatives did. On another round of the same, Trudeau insisted that the NDP didn’t want any trade deals, and the Conservatives would sign anything, but he would only sign a good deal, and that included NAFTA.

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Roundup: Those pesky gasoline prices

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While avoiding condemning Maxime Bernier’s choice of language and engagement (moving from just winking at white nationalists to now trying to delegitimize the media), Andrew Scheer has resumed his practice of shitposting misleading statistics memes over Twitter, and yesterday it was in relation to gasoline prices. Yes, Statistics Canada reported that the inflation rate in June was 3.0 percent, which is the Bank of Canada’s upper bound for their target, and yes, it was fuelled in part by gasoline prices. (Core inflation, stripped of volatile factors like gasoline, remains closer to the 2.0 percent target, so it’s not really anything to worry about). But why would those gasoline prices be higher? Hmm…

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1030574821543829504

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1030574941060517888

That’s right – the world price of oil has increased over the past year after its recovery from the price collapse nearly two years ago, and that’s an unambiguous good thing for provinces like Alberta, who rely on oil prices being on the higher side for their economies. Trying to cast this as a carbon tax issue – and that oh noes, carbon taxes will make this even worse – is a bit disingenuous considering how small of a fraction of the price that entails.

Meanwhile, with a number of voices (Jason Kenney and Scheer among them) calling for the revival of Energy East in light of the Saudi Arabia spat, energy economist Andrew Leach crunched the numbers on the economic case for that pipeline. Short version: there is no economic case. Stop trying to pretend there is one or blaming Justin Trudeau for its demise.

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Roundup: Singh’s pipeline waffle

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On yesterday’s Power & Politics, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh gave an interview that was probably as close to a car crash as I’ve seen him give to date, which should probably start to worry some people. His insistence that he’s in this “for people” is baffling, because that seems to be the most basic, elementary thing that politicians are in politics for. He spoke about the “housing crisis” that the federal government is supposed to do something about (he won’t exactly say what, because in places like Vancouver, supply is an issue), he rattled off the lie that the federal government had cut healthcare (a changed escalator is not a cut, and that particular lie went unchallenged), and he insists that he can do more as an opposition member to make the government keep promises than a Liberal backbencher could. (This kind of spin is something that the Liberals will play with the exact reverse – that a backbencher can do more because they can talk to ministers in the caucus room). He also denied that seeking this seat was because of caucus pressure to get a seat (this was indeed an issue), and is promising to move there if he wins (and good luck finding a house in that market, even to rent), but won’t say what he’ll do if he doesn’t win (and it was a close three-way race in the last election).

The more painful part of the interview, however, had to do with his commentary on the current spat with Saudi Arabia, during which Singh started pontificating about energy sovereignty, and not getting oil from the Saudis any longer. Okay, great – they currently supply a mere 11 percent of Canadian oil imports, so that’s not a big deal, but energy sovereignty means pipelines going west-to-east, which the NDP had a big problem with already in a proposal called Energy East. But when asked about pipelines, Singh deflected and started talking about refineries, which is a different thing altogether. Falling back on NDP catchphrases like “value-added” and “rip-and-ship,” his argument not only didn’t make any sense (the question wasn’t refineries – but that is an issue because East Coast refineries aren’t built to handle western heavy crude), particularly economically (seriously, there’s a reason why we haven’t built new refineries and have in fact shuttered others), it ignored the question about how you have energy sovereignty without pipelines that will run through Quebec – a voter base that the NDP is desperate to hold onto.

He’s been leader for almost a year now – this kind of talking point word salad is getting a bit thin for someone who should be able to provide answers on issues of the day, and who shouldn’t just fall on reheating non sequitur talking points. But this is what the party chose (well, in as much as we’ll see how many of those memberships stay active).

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Roundup: Saudi spat

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So that diplomatic dispute with Saudi Arabia sure escalated quickly. To recap, Saudi Arabia took offence to Canada calling on the release of activists from their country, and expelled our ambassador, cancelled trade deals (which includes large exports of barley from Canada), and demanded that the 15,000 or so Saudi students in Canada return home within the next four weeks (which could have an impact on the Canadian economy). It remains to be seen if that LAV deal is still on the table, because that could also have a major impact on jobs in Southwestern Ontario. Both Chrysita Freeland and Bill Morneau are holding firm in their position, but what is potentially more worrying is the fact that the US and the UK aren’t taking sides. Peter MacKay thinks that the PM needs to get involved personally to clear this up, for whatever his opinion is worth.

Bessma Momani talks about what’s behind Saudi Arabia’s move in expelling Canada’s ambassador, and John Geddes interviews two other experts on the area. Kevin Carmichael looks at how political disputes are going to affect trade in the future, especially as authoritarian regimes dare Western countries to ignore rights.

Meanwhile, the dumbest take in all of this has to be the number of people who have started salivating about how this loss of Saudi oil imports on the East Coast means that we should resurrect Energy East. Not only does it not make economic sense, it doesn’t make practical sense since the refineries in Eastern Canada aren’t built to handle the heavy crude coming from Alberta, which puts a lie to the notion that Energy East would be used for domestic consumption rather than export. Even if it were economical to convert and extend the pipeline (and currently it’s not with both Trans Mountain being twinned and Keystone XL finally going ahead), you would need to retrofit or build new refineries in the East, at the cost of yet more billions of dollars, which doesn’t make any sense when we can find imports from countries other than Saudi Arabia that are still cheaper. (And for so-called fiscal conservatives to demand this pipeline happen in spite of economics for nationalist concerns makes their reasoning all the more suspicious).

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QP: Pushing back on partisanship

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While the prime minister was off in Alberta and BC to offer reassurances around the purchase of the Trans Mountain pipeline, Andrew Scheer was in Ottawa for a change. Scheer led off, mini-lectern on desk, reading concern about the three weeks that it will take for Canadian retribution for US tariffs to come into effect. Ralph Goodale responded by saying that the US tariffs were insulting, before reading condemnation about Scheer’s partisanship over the issue. Scheer took swipes at the government’s apparent inaction and again demanded again to know why it would take three weeks for retaliation to come into effect, and Goodale again read more condemnation of Scheer’s partisanship. Scheer insisted that his pointing out the failure to implement the retribution was in the national interest and was his job in holding government to account, before he changed to the Kinder Morgan retention bonuses — conveniently ignoring the “retention” part. Bill Morneau stood up this time to say that Scheer was coming out against Canadian workers on this project. Scheer tried again, and Morneau responded that he wouldn’t comment on what a private company does, before reiterating that the Conservatives apparently don’t care about the jobs this would create. Scheer switched to French to concern troll about Supply Management, to which Marie Claude Bibeau stood up to insist that the government was resolute in the defence of Supply Management. Alexandre Boulerice led for the NDP, railing about the Trans Mountain pipeline, to which Morneau reminded him that this was about Canadian jobs. Boulerice insisted this project ignore First Nations’ rights, and to this Jim Carr assured him that they did consult, more than was required. Georgina Jolibois took over the question in English, hammering on the UNDRIP angle, to which Carr noted the co-development of the monitoring committee and that it was food for shared prosperity. Nathan Cullen got up to sanctimoniously lament that the government was pitting one First Nation against another — which erupted in cries of shame — to which Carr wondered if Cullen had consulted with the First Nations that were in favour of the project.

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Roundup: The first salvo of a trade war

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It looks like we’ll officially be in a trade war with the United States, thanks to the decision of the American government to slap steel and aluminium tariffs on us as a direct consequence of NAFTA not being renegotiated (under the guise of “national security” concerns), and the Canadian government has opted to retaliate. And we also learned that a NAFTA deal was on the table, but because we refused the five-year sunset clause (as well we should have because it would present too much uncertainty to industry), the Americans walked away from the deal. So that’s a pretty big deal.

The tariffs could have pretty big knock-on effects on our economy, and it won’t really help the American steel industry, which is already operating pretty much at capacity, so much of Trump’s justification evaporates. And Canada’s retaliatory measures, calculated to be dollar-for-dollar on the US-imposed tariffs may sound like an odd list that includes things like yogurt, candy, pizzas and pens, it’s all carefully calculated to target the industries of swing states and key American legislators as they start heading toward mid-term elections. The objective of course is to put pressure on them, who should in turn put pressure on Trump. In theory. We’ll see.

Meanwhile, Aaron Wherry looks at how Trump is ignoring the basics of statecraft and getting away with it with impunity. Paul Wells suspects it’s time to start snubbing Trump rather than appearing eager to get a deal accomplished, since that’s what he’s more focuse don in the first place. Stephen Saideman says that Canada needs to retaliate somehow, lest it feed Trump’s perception that “maximal pressure” works in negotiations.

https://twitter.com/dgardner/status/1002189314107703297

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QP: Cheap shots on a trade war

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While Justin Trudeau had intended to show up for Question Period today, the new imposition of tariffs by the United States had him off at the National Press Theatre instead. Andrew Scheer was also away, off to Nova Scotia instead. Erin O’Toole led off, decrying the steel tariffs and called the prime minister a failure on the issue, which ushered in cries of “shame!” from the Liberal benches. Marc Garneau admonished him for being partisan on this issue, and stated that the tariffs were unacceptable and that Canada would be imposing retaliatory tariffs against American imports. O’Toole insisted that the PM didn’t get anything for months while the Conservatives were engaged on the file, and demanded action. Garneau reiterated his response, and when O’Toole invited the government to work with the Conservatives on the issue, Garneau relate his response for a third time. Luc Berthold took over to make the charge of incompetence in French, to which Garneau repeated his response in French, and when Berthold accused the PM of naïvely believing the president when he said there would be no tariffs, Garneau said that Berthold should be ashamed of his partisanship. Ruth Ellen Brosseau then picked up the same line of questioning for the NDP, demanding to know what the government would do to protect workers, and Garneau repeated that they are consulting on retaliatory measures and would protect workers. Tracey Ramsey took over in English, and over two questions asked the same thing and made more accusations that the government was unable to secure a deal, to which Garneau repeated his response yet again. Karine Trudel took over for a final attempt at the very same question, and got the same answer. Again.

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QP: Pipeline project necromancy

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With the Trans Mountain announcement still reverberating in the political sphere, it was proto-Prime Ministers Questions, and it remained to be see how substantive the answer would be. Andrew Scheer led off, mini-lectern on desk, and he railed not only about this pipeline acquisition, but the fact that it threw New Brunswick under the bus because they killed Energy East. (reminder: They didn’t kill the project, the proponent withdrew after Keystone XL became viable again). Justin Trudeau replied with his tired platitudes about energy and the economy, and securing jobs for Albertans. Scheer railed that other projects were killed, including Northern Gateway, and that the demise of Energy East ensured that only foreign oil flowed to Eastern Canada. Trudeau shrugged this off as dwelling in the past because they couldn’t deal with the reality that this government was doing the right thing. Scheer insisted that the previous government didn’t need taxpayer funds to get pipelines built and approved — ignoring that most of those pipelines were simply reversals or refurbishing existing ones. Trudeau noted that the Conservatives were trapped by their “rigid ideology,” whereas he was standing up for Alberta and Canadian jobs. Scheer went another round, and this time Trudeau invoked the spirit of Peter Lougheed to justify his actions. Scheer returned to playing the economic nationalism card by highlighting that Kinder Morgan is Texas-based, and Trudeau again invoked Lougheed. Guy Caron was up next for the NDP, railing that Trudeau should have invested in clean energy, to which Trudeau reminded him that when Rachel Notley came out with her climate plan, the federal NDP cheered, but that plan had three parts — a cap on greenhouse gasses, carbon pricing, and a pipeline to new markets. Caron demanded to know what the impact on taxpayers would be, but Trudeau kept wedging that the NDP can’t bridge the energy and the economy. Nathan Cullen poured on the sanctimony to protest the purchase, brining in reconciliation and climate promises, and Trudeau reiterated his previous response about Notley’s plan in English. Cullen accused Trudeau of smoking weed to make the decision, and Trudeau noted that this was about certainty to get it constructed and getting it built as part of their plan to fight climate change and grow the economy.

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