Tag Archives: Energy East

Roundup: Those pesky gasoline prices

Posted on by

While avoiding condemning Maxime Bernier’s choice of language and engagement (moving from just winking at white nationalists to now trying to delegitimize the media), Andrew Scheer has resumed his practice of shitposting misleading statistics memes over Twitter, and yesterday it was in relation to gasoline prices. Yes, Statistics Canada reported that the inflation rate in June was 3.0 percent, which is the Bank of Canada’s upper bound for their target, and yes, it was fuelled in part by gasoline prices. (Core inflation, stripped of volatile factors like gasoline, remains closer to the 2.0 percent target, so it’s not really anything to worry about). But why would those gasoline prices be higher? Hmm…

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1030574821543829504

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1030574941060517888

That’s right – the world price of oil has increased over the past year after its recovery from the price collapse nearly two years ago, and that’s an unambiguous good thing for provinces like Alberta, who rely on oil prices being on the higher side for their economies. Trying to cast this as a carbon tax issue – and that oh noes, carbon taxes will make this even worse – is a bit disingenuous considering how small of a fraction of the price that entails.

Meanwhile, with a number of voices (Jason Kenney and Scheer among them) calling for the revival of Energy East in light of the Saudi Arabia spat, energy economist Andrew Leach crunched the numbers on the economic case for that pipeline. Short version: there is no economic case. Stop trying to pretend there is one or blaming Justin Trudeau for its demise.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Singh’s pipeline waffle

Posted on by

On yesterday’s Power & Politics, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh gave an interview that was probably as close to a car crash as I’ve seen him give to date, which should probably start to worry some people. His insistence that he’s in this “for people” is baffling, because that seems to be the most basic, elementary thing that politicians are in politics for. He spoke about the “housing crisis” that the federal government is supposed to do something about (he won’t exactly say what, because in places like Vancouver, supply is an issue), he rattled off the lie that the federal government had cut healthcare (a changed escalator is not a cut, and that particular lie went unchallenged), and he insists that he can do more as an opposition member to make the government keep promises than a Liberal backbencher could. (This kind of spin is something that the Liberals will play with the exact reverse – that a backbencher can do more because they can talk to ministers in the caucus room). He also denied that seeking this seat was because of caucus pressure to get a seat (this was indeed an issue), and is promising to move there if he wins (and good luck finding a house in that market, even to rent), but won’t say what he’ll do if he doesn’t win (and it was a close three-way race in the last election).

The more painful part of the interview, however, had to do with his commentary on the current spat with Saudi Arabia, during which Singh started pontificating about energy sovereignty, and not getting oil from the Saudis any longer. Okay, great – they currently supply a mere 11 percent of Canadian oil imports, so that’s not a big deal, but energy sovereignty means pipelines going west-to-east, which the NDP had a big problem with already in a proposal called Energy East. But when asked about pipelines, Singh deflected and started talking about refineries, which is a different thing altogether. Falling back on NDP catchphrases like “value-added” and “rip-and-ship,” his argument not only didn’t make any sense (the question wasn’t refineries – but that is an issue because East Coast refineries aren’t built to handle western heavy crude), particularly economically (seriously, there’s a reason why we haven’t built new refineries and have in fact shuttered others), it ignored the question about how you have energy sovereignty without pipelines that will run through Quebec – a voter base that the NDP is desperate to hold onto.

He’s been leader for almost a year now – this kind of talking point word salad is getting a bit thin for someone who should be able to provide answers on issues of the day, and who shouldn’t just fall on reheating non sequitur talking points. But this is what the party chose (well, in as much as we’ll see how many of those memberships stay active).

Continue reading →

Roundup: Saudi spat

Posted on by

So that diplomatic dispute with Saudi Arabia sure escalated quickly. To recap, Saudi Arabia took offence to Canada calling on the release of activists from their country, and expelled our ambassador, cancelled trade deals (which includes large exports of barley from Canada), and demanded that the 15,000 or so Saudi students in Canada return home within the next four weeks (which could have an impact on the Canadian economy). It remains to be seen if that LAV deal is still on the table, because that could also have a major impact on jobs in Southwestern Ontario. Both Chrysita Freeland and Bill Morneau are holding firm in their position, but what is potentially more worrying is the fact that the US and the UK aren’t taking sides. Peter MacKay thinks that the PM needs to get involved personally to clear this up, for whatever his opinion is worth.

Bessma Momani talks about what’s behind Saudi Arabia’s move in expelling Canada’s ambassador, and John Geddes interviews two other experts on the area. Kevin Carmichael looks at how political disputes are going to affect trade in the future, especially as authoritarian regimes dare Western countries to ignore rights.

Meanwhile, the dumbest take in all of this has to be the number of people who have started salivating about how this loss of Saudi oil imports on the East Coast means that we should resurrect Energy East. Not only does it not make economic sense, it doesn’t make practical sense since the refineries in Eastern Canada aren’t built to handle the heavy crude coming from Alberta, which puts a lie to the notion that Energy East would be used for domestic consumption rather than export. Even if it were economical to convert and extend the pipeline (and currently it’s not with both Trans Mountain being twinned and Keystone XL finally going ahead), you would need to retrofit or build new refineries in the East, at the cost of yet more billions of dollars, which doesn’t make any sense when we can find imports from countries other than Saudi Arabia that are still cheaper. (And for so-called fiscal conservatives to demand this pipeline happen in spite of economics for nationalist concerns makes their reasoning all the more suspicious).

Continue reading →

QP: Pushing back on partisanship

Posted on by

While the prime minister was off in Alberta and BC to offer reassurances around the purchase of the Trans Mountain pipeline, Andrew Scheer was in Ottawa for a change. Scheer led off, mini-lectern on desk, reading concern about the three weeks that it will take for Canadian retribution for US tariffs to come into effect. Ralph Goodale responded by saying that the US tariffs were insulting, before reading condemnation about Scheer’s partisanship over the issue. Scheer took swipes at the government’s apparent inaction and again demanded again to know why it would take three weeks for retaliation to come into effect, and Goodale again read more condemnation of Scheer’s partisanship. Scheer insisted that his pointing out the failure to implement the retribution was in the national interest and was his job in holding government to account, before he changed to the Kinder Morgan retention bonuses — conveniently ignoring the “retention” part. Bill Morneau stood up this time to say that Scheer was coming out against Canadian workers on this project. Scheer tried again, and Morneau responded that he wouldn’t comment on what a private company does, before reiterating that the Conservatives apparently don’t care about the jobs this would create. Scheer switched to French to concern troll about Supply Management, to which Marie Claude Bibeau stood up to insist that the government was resolute in the defence of Supply Management. Alexandre Boulerice led for the NDP, railing about the Trans Mountain pipeline, to which Morneau reminded him that this was about Canadian jobs. Boulerice insisted this project ignore First Nations’ rights, and to this Jim Carr assured him that they did consult, more than was required. Georgina Jolibois took over the question in English, hammering on the UNDRIP angle, to which Carr noted the co-development of the monitoring committee and that it was food for shared prosperity. Nathan Cullen got up to sanctimoniously lament that the government was pitting one First Nation against another — which erupted in cries of shame — to which Carr wondered if Cullen had consulted with the First Nations that were in favour of the project.

Continue reading →

Roundup: The first salvo of a trade war

Posted on by

It looks like we’ll officially be in a trade war with the United States, thanks to the decision of the American government to slap steel and aluminium tariffs on us as a direct consequence of NAFTA not being renegotiated (under the guise of “national security” concerns), and the Canadian government has opted to retaliate. And we also learned that a NAFTA deal was on the table, but because we refused the five-year sunset clause (as well we should have because it would present too much uncertainty to industry), the Americans walked away from the deal. So that’s a pretty big deal.

The tariffs could have pretty big knock-on effects on our economy, and it won’t really help the American steel industry, which is already operating pretty much at capacity, so much of Trump’s justification evaporates. And Canada’s retaliatory measures, calculated to be dollar-for-dollar on the US-imposed tariffs may sound like an odd list that includes things like yogurt, candy, pizzas and pens, it’s all carefully calculated to target the industries of swing states and key American legislators as they start heading toward mid-term elections. The objective of course is to put pressure on them, who should in turn put pressure on Trump. In theory. We’ll see.

Meanwhile, Aaron Wherry looks at how Trump is ignoring the basics of statecraft and getting away with it with impunity. Paul Wells suspects it’s time to start snubbing Trump rather than appearing eager to get a deal accomplished, since that’s what he’s more focuse don in the first place. Stephen Saideman says that Canada needs to retaliate somehow, lest it feed Trump’s perception that “maximal pressure” works in negotiations.

https://twitter.com/dgardner/status/1002189314107703297

Continue reading →

QP: Cheap shots on a trade war

Posted on by

While Justin Trudeau had intended to show up for Question Period today, the new imposition of tariffs by the United States had him off at the National Press Theatre instead. Andrew Scheer was also away, off to Nova Scotia instead. Erin O’Toole led off, decrying the steel tariffs and called the prime minister a failure on the issue, which ushered in cries of “shame!” from the Liberal benches. Marc Garneau admonished him for being partisan on this issue, and stated that the tariffs were unacceptable and that Canada would be imposing retaliatory tariffs against American imports. O’Toole insisted that the PM didn’t get anything for months while the Conservatives were engaged on the file, and demanded action. Garneau reiterated his response, and when O’Toole invited the government to work with the Conservatives on the issue, Garneau relate his response for a third time. Luc Berthold took over to make the charge of incompetence in French, to which Garneau repeated his response in French, and when Berthold accused the PM of naïvely believing the president when he said there would be no tariffs, Garneau said that Berthold should be ashamed of his partisanship. Ruth Ellen Brosseau then picked up the same line of questioning for the NDP, demanding to know what the government would do to protect workers, and Garneau repeated that they are consulting on retaliatory measures and would protect workers. Tracey Ramsey took over in English, and over two questions asked the same thing and made more accusations that the government was unable to secure a deal, to which Garneau repeated his response yet again. Karine Trudel took over for a final attempt at the very same question, and got the same answer. Again.

Continue reading →

QP: Pipeline project necromancy

Posted on by

With the Trans Mountain announcement still reverberating in the political sphere, it was proto-Prime Ministers Questions, and it remained to be see how substantive the answer would be. Andrew Scheer led off, mini-lectern on desk, and he railed not only about this pipeline acquisition, but the fact that it threw New Brunswick under the bus because they killed Energy East. (reminder: They didn’t kill the project, the proponent withdrew after Keystone XL became viable again). Justin Trudeau replied with his tired platitudes about energy and the economy, and securing jobs for Albertans. Scheer railed that other projects were killed, including Northern Gateway, and that the demise of Energy East ensured that only foreign oil flowed to Eastern Canada. Trudeau shrugged this off as dwelling in the past because they couldn’t deal with the reality that this government was doing the right thing. Scheer insisted that the previous government didn’t need taxpayer funds to get pipelines built and approved — ignoring that most of those pipelines were simply reversals or refurbishing existing ones. Trudeau noted that the Conservatives were trapped by their “rigid ideology,” whereas he was standing up for Alberta and Canadian jobs. Scheer went another round, and this time Trudeau invoked the spirit of Peter Lougheed to justify his actions. Scheer returned to playing the economic nationalism card by highlighting that Kinder Morgan is Texas-based, and Trudeau again invoked Lougheed. Guy Caron was up next for the NDP, railing that Trudeau should have invested in clean energy, to which Trudeau reminded him that when Rachel Notley came out with her climate plan, the federal NDP cheered, but that plan had three parts — a cap on greenhouse gasses, carbon pricing, and a pipeline to new markets. Caron demanded to know what the impact on taxpayers would be, but Trudeau kept wedging that the NDP can’t bridge the energy and the economy. Nathan Cullen poured on the sanctimony to protest the purchase, brining in reconciliation and climate promises, and Trudeau reiterated his previous response about Notley’s plan in English. Cullen accused Trudeau of smoking weed to make the decision, and Trudeau noted that this was about certainty to get it constructed and getting it built as part of their plan to fight climate change and grow the economy.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Preferential tax treatment warranted?

Posted on by

The hits keep on coming when it comes to the rhetoric about the proposed small business tax changes. If you listened to doctors, you would think that the government was outlawing self-incorporation. They’re not. If you listen to the Conservatives, it’s a “massive tax hike” and “hugely complex changes” which also doesn’t quite scan – yes, there is some complexity in how they plan to enforce the changes, but that’s not the same thing.

People also keep insisting that these changes won’t allow them to use their incorporation for savings purposes (whether for a buffer or for a maternity leave), which again, is not the case as the new rules have been outlined.

https://twitter.com/lindsaytedds/status/900542218041044992

Of course, when these facts meet their rhetoric, we have been assaulted with yet more wailing and gnashing of teeth that these preferential tax treatments are a “reward” for the risks that these entrepreneurs take. Which again, doesn’t actually fly with the research. (See Kevin Milligan’s thread starting here, which I won’t reproduce in its entirety).

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/900512815521202176

In fact, you can make a number of arguments about whether the government should be subsidising the risk of entrepreneurs. Also, the it should be restated that preferential tax rates are not the reward for becoming an entrepreneur – there are other rewards inherent in the role.

https://twitter.com/lindsaytedds/status/900517401334136832

https://twitter.com/brodiehoulette/status/900536709561143296

Instead, we come back to the government’s argument about tax fairness, and why those who choose to self-incorporate and have families to split/sprinkle their income with should be the only ones to enjoys such privileges. Nobody seems to be able to answer that question. Funnily enough. Instead, it’s more disingenuous rhetoric and outright falsehoods about what’s being proposed here, that benefits only the very wealthy few for whom this kind of tax “planning” makes sense.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/900526526122381312

Meanwhile, Andrew Coyne takes on the notion that small businesses should get preferential tax rates for risk-taking, while taking down the critics of his arguments, who similarly are building cases on false premises.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Rejected amendments on C-4

Posted on by

It looks like we may have another bit of drama between the Commons and the Senate with respect to the amendments on Bill C-4, which is the government’s repeal of two private members’ bills from the previous parliament that sought to limit unionisation. While the portions of the bill related to the repeal of the one bill on financial reporting for unions went through, there were amendments to retain the portions of the former bill on ensuring that union drives are subject to a secret ballot instead of the card-check system. The government has signalled that they plan to reject those amendments, which was not unexpected.

The insistence on secret ballots for unionization was a very fraught issue, and having covered the private members’ bills in the previous parliament, I spoke to a number of labour relations experts who said that not only did this was a problematic change because it put the system out of step with much of the legislation around it, but the process for making those changes – a private members’ bill – upset a lot of the balance in the system and because it had the Conservative government’s support, it shifted the role of the government from promoting settlements and giving parties mediators or arbitrators to one of being openly against the unions. None of that goes away with the Senate’s amendment process. This isn’t by any means to say that I’m trying to shill for the unionization side of things – I’m not. But this is one of those issues where process does matter, and the previous parliament upset the usual process by which these issues are agreed to.

And if the Commons rejects the amendments and sends it back to the Senate? Will they accept the judgment of the Commons? Likely. While the Conservatives in the Senate will likely try to fight this tooth and nail – seeing it as a legacy of their time in government – I’m sure there will be some pressure (and no small amount of admonition from Senator Peter Harder) to bend to the will of the elected members. If the Senate didn’t go to war with the Commons over the assisted dying bill, I have a hard time seeing why they would over this one, particularly as there is a good chance it would not survive a Charter challenge.

ETA: I confused C-4 and C-6 with regards to the call for a free vote. Those sections have been excised.

Continue reading →

QP: Demands to denounce Trump

Posted on by

A less somber day in the Commons, and things were getting back to normal. Such as normal is in this place. Rona Ambrose led off, declaring that Justin Trudeau broke the Conflict of Interest Code with his vacation with the Aga Khan, and Trudeau reminded her that all questions from the Ethics Commissioner would be answered. Ambrose said that this was a distraction from him doing his job to create jobs, and Trudeau disputed this, stating that he was focused on the middle class and recited actions taken such as tax cuts. Ambrose worried about the possibility of taxing dental and health benefits, but Trudeau repeated his question. Ambrose reiterated the question on benefit plans, and Trudeau merely told her to wait for the upcoming budget. Switching to French, Ambrose then asked about changes coming to the US plunging Canada into a recession. Trudeau noted the beneficial trade relationship that we have with the States, at they would be reiterating this. Thomas Mulcair was up next, demanding that Trudeau stand up to Trump’s racism and hatred. Trudeau noted this twin challenges of ensuring Canadian jobs, and standing up for Canadian values. Mulcair wanted an unequivocal yes or no in French, but Trudeau wouldn’t give him one. Mulcair then switched to the issue of electoral reform and whether the promise was dead, but Trudeau said that they would keep working on it. Mulcair asked again in English, and Trudeau reiterated his happy talking points about working with Canadians to improve our democracy.

Continue reading →