Roundup: Pretending the promise of money was new

Provincial health ministers met in Vancouver yesterday in advance of their federal counterpart joining them, and boy did the bullshit ever flow, particularly in their characterisation of what has transpired. The federal minister, Jean-Yves Duclos, put out a statement before the provincial minsters had a press conference that basically reiterated what the federal government has been saying for months now—that yes, they are willing to spend more money, but they want outcomes attached. What was different was specific language about common metrics for health data, cooperation on health workforces, and that the federal government was willing to also engaged in specially tailored one-off agreements with provinces on specific investments.

To hear BC’s health minister, Adrian Dix, tell the tale, the federal government has been “radio silent” for over a year, which is not true, or that this is the first time they’ve raised money issues, which is again, not true, and the message has been consistent. But some of his counterparts are already rejecting the federal strings, and insisting that this is some kind of centralization or micromanaging (it’s not). Dix also pretended that the progress he has made around some reforms in BC are being done elsewhere around the country (they’re not) as “proof” that the provinces are getting their acts together on healthcare, which is, again, not true, and nobody wants to call out the provinces for letting things get to a crisis through chronic underfunding, in large part because they spent federal dollars on other things, and because certain premiers appear to be wilfully breaking their systems in order to try and privatise as much as they can without penalty under the Canada Health Act. If the starting point for these negotiations is the truth, well, that appears to be in short supply, which could be a big problem for everyone going forward.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 258:

Ukrainian officials are accusing Russian forces of looting empty homes in Kherson after they ordered civilians out of the city (likely a forced deportation, which is a war crime) in advance of the Ukrainian advance on the city, and then the Russians cut the power to the city and blamed Ukrainian “sabotage.” The epicentre of the fighting remains Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the Donetsk region, where Ukrainians say that hundreds of Russians are being killed every day.

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Roundup: Don’t just rely on the federal government

While at a feel-good announcement yesterday about the enhanced GST rebates going out to Canadians, Justin Trudeau told reporters that he was weighing “all options” on what to do about Doug Ford’s pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding Clause, though federal options are extremely limited because it is a legitimate constitutional power under certain circumstances, and doing anything about that would require a constitutional amendment, which if Quebec or Ontario are not on board with, would be dead in the water. And disallowance is likely a Pandora’s box of federal-provincial warfare, which limits options.

Trudeau also said that Canadians themselves need to stand up to provinces using this power rather than waiting for the federal government to intervene (as the pre-emptive use pretty much rules out the courts becoming involved), because we shouldn’t underestimate the power of popular discontent—particularly for someone like Doug Ford, who doesn’t like it when people are mad at him. The powers are being invoked by populists who think they can get away with it by pandering to baser instincts, and of people put sustained pressure on those governments to let them know that no, using these powers are not okay, that could force them to back off, but that means actual sustained pressure, and not just the kinds of slactivism that we have become accustomed to. That is the kind of democratic power that still exists and holds sway, and we shouldn’t discount it.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 255:

Russian authorities in occupied Kherson continue to attempt to evacuate civilians from the city, moving them deeper into Russian-occupied territory, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warns that Russia could be laying a trap to ensnare Ukrainian forces into intense urban warfare. Zelenskyy also said that Ukrainian forces have been holding their positions around Bakhmut and Soledar in the Donetsk region, while Russians send more troops into the “meat grinder.”

https://twitter.com/AnitaAnandMP/status/1588684951381508097

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Roundup: A thinnish Fiscal Update

It was the Fall Economic Statement yesterday, which did not have a lot of new measures within it, highlighting the upcoming economic uncertainty and possibility of a short recession, though its optimistic scenario is for a simple economic slowdown that will help to tame inflation. The deficit is also slated to be lower than predicted in Budget 2022, and there is a path to balance within a couple of years. What it did offer was fairly targeted—eliminating interest on student loans, providing advances to the Canada Worker Benefit (but done in a really problematic way that will likely create future headaches because they didn’t listen to advice), a promise to do something about credit card fees for small businesses, and a tax on share buybacks by 2024 (which could create a run on them before it kicks in, because of course). The$15-billion Canada Growth Fund will be willing to accept lower returns or increase its loss exposure in order to stimulate institutional investment in riskier green projects,  A few more of the smaller measures in the document can be found here and also here.

In the meantime, check out the threads from Lindsay Tedds and Jennifer Robson.

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1588264168037449729

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1588264815319207936

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1588266088739274752

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1588268099312418819

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 254:

Unsurprisingly, International Atomic Energy Agency has found no evidence that Ukraine is building “dirty bombs,” contradicting Russian claims. More shelling near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant means that it has been cut off from the power grid again and is running on emergency generators to cool the reactors. Here is a look inside Russia’s “cleansing” campaign in the town of Bucha, where one of the mass graves was found, as well as the Kyiv suburb of Andriivka, where more civilians were killed.

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Roundup: The possible constitutional crisis Ford wrought

The fallout of Doug Ford’s pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding Clause to bigfoot labour rights carried on yesterday on a few different fronts. In Queen’s Park, the NDP’s interim leader and half of their caucus were ejected by the Speaker for calling Doug Ford a liar over his comments about the CUPE strike, and not retracting. And when one was ejected, another one did on their turn, and so on. This is becoming a problem in legislatures and the House of Commons federally, where it becomes difficult to call out blatant falsehoods because of the prohibitions from calling someone a liar, which has absolutely emboldened parties and elected officials in their respective legislatures at different times, but it’s really bad right now.

Federally, NDP MP Matthew Green tried to call for an emergency debate on this abuse of the power, but it was not deemed worthy, and I’m at a loss as to how it could be because this isn’t a federal matter, and there is nothing the federal government can legitimately do (and don’t say Disallowance, because that is a constitutional dead letter). Later in the day, Justin Trudeau had a call with Doug Ford to tell him that his pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding Clause was “wrong and inappropriate,” but I’m not sure what more he can do about that, other than try and encourage enough public sentiment against Ford. After all, he likes to be the fun uncle, and if enough people are mad at him, he will back down. The question is sustaining enough anger and ensuring it is widespread enough for Ford to blink.

https://twitter.com/AaronWherry/status/1587989392383148032

Meanwhile, Andrew Coyne argues that federal disallowance powers should be revived to stop provinces’ abusive pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding clause, and it’s a position I’m going to have to give more thought to, because in a limited way there could be an argument, but it would have to be very particular. I will also note that over Twitter, there has been some chatter that there wasn’t this disallowance talk with Quebec using the Notwithstanding Clause, which is wrong—it has been there, but it is usually met with the same reply, that it’s a constitutional dead letter, and you’re provoking a constitutional crisis. But the constant abuse may have provoked that very crisis, so it’s going to need some very careful consideration as to what next steps are, and what the unintended consequences may be.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 253:

Russia is re-joining the deal to export Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea days after it pulled out of the agreement, saying that their security concerns have been met. Ukraine has officially denied being involved in the attack on Russian ships over the weekend, but president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Russia seeking security guarantees from Ukraine is a sign of how badly its invasion has gone for them.

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Roundup: Internet troll and wide-eyed naïf

The occupation leaders started their turn to testify at the Emergencies Act committee yesterday, and it’s quite an interesting picture that they are painting of themselves. Chris Barber, for example, admits to being a racist internet troll who “saw the light” thanks to all of the love and hugs during the occupation (sure, Jan), but also tried to present himself as this wide-eyed naïf who couldn’t possibly understand the MOU about overthrowing the government, or who believed all the honking was just these truckers being excited. Yeah, so believable. There were, apparently, power struggles between the different groups and organisers, and things started to spiral out of their control. Gosh, you think? And when Barber was presented with an email with an assassination threat targeting Chrystia Freeland, he insisted he had no knowledge of this—because, you know, it was all peace and love. (Credit to Shannon Proudfoot for the troll/naïf descriptor).

Elsewhere, Doug Ford’s lawyers were at Federal Court to argue that the rule of law would be “irreparably harmed” if Ford and Sylvia Jones were forced to testify at the public inquiry or deal with any subsequent contempt proceedings, which…is a bit much. The judge in the case noted that the parliamentary privilege relates to criminal and civil courts, but does not specify public inquiries (because the basis of the privilege stems from a time when the Crown controlled the courts). Said judge also said he expects to have a decision by November 8th, which is two days before Ford and Jones are supposed to testify at the inquiry.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 252:

Russian authorities in occupied territories have ordered the evacuation of civilians in an area near Kherson, which the Ukrainian government considers a forced depopulation, which is a war crime. Russians also fired missiles into an apartment building in the port city of Mykolaiv, and have destroyed about 40 percent of the country’s energy infrastructure as winter approaches.

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QP: A puzzling and aborted attempt to change the channel

The PM was present today, while his deputy was not, though most of the other leaders weren’t. Pierre Poilievre led off in French by accusing the government of fuelling inflation and added in some nonsense about rising taxes and deficits making interest rates go higher (no, that’s not how this works), and demanded an end to government spending. Justin Trudeau said that Canadians are concerned about the cost of living, the cost of going to the dentist, and the cost of rent, which is why they put forward measures that the Conservative have been opposing. Poilievre switched to English to insist that everything that Trudeau does makes everything worse, and demanded the prime minister stop driving up the cost of living by ending government taxing Canadians (which are wildly disparate concepts being mashed together with zero regard for how things work). Trudeau listed measures that they have made to support people and employers through the pandemic and ensured that our economy came “roaring back” faster than other countries, because it ensured economic growth. Poilievre insisted that Trudeau’s “own parliamentary budget officer” (which is some weird bullshit) that much of that COVID spending had nothing to do with COVID, and quoted some Desjardins figures about federal debt charges which he asserted could have been better spent on health transfers. (Erm, really? That’s your line? Also, those “bankers and bondholders” for that federal debt actually goes a lot to things like pension plans.) Trudeau once again touted the investments they made to support low-income families, and that the Conservatives would rather see cuts. Poilievre spun a tale of woe for people’s credit card rates, with some disingenuous laugh lines about the government assuming debt so people wouldn’t have to in the pandemic, leading to a false reading of how federal debt works. Trudeau repeated that they face supports to people, before calling out Poilievre for not condemning Doug Ford’s preemptive use of the Notwithstanding Clause. Poilievre then went on a bad faith rant about the ArriveCan app and trolled for support for his Supply Day motion on calling the Auditor General on the app. Trudeau said it was no surprise that Poilievre would not condemn this attack on rights, before returning to the points that the Conservatives want to raid EI and pensions.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he lamented the state of the healthcare system and worried that the federal government was “scheming” to deprive provinces of funding. Trudeau said that they want to see an effective system, which is why they want to supply more money, but they need to work with provinces to ensure that there are results. Therrien turned this into an attack on Quebec, and referenced the (largely apocryphal) Night of the Knives under his father. Trudeau insisted they want to work with provinces but need tangible results rather than throwing money at a broken system. 

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and in French, he shouts about fossil fuel subsidies, saying that 2023 was two months away. Trudeau said that the elimination of “inefficient” subsidies would happen by the end of 2023. Daniel Blaikie took over in English, and demanded the government eliminate GST off of home heating (which is really just a subsidy for rich households. Trudeau praised their climate rebates, and other affordability measures. 

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Roundup: Sloly, Day Two

It was another firehose of news out of the Emergencies Act public inquiry for the second day of former Ottawa police chief Peter Sloly’s testimony. Sloly lashed out at RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki and then-Public Safety minister Bill Blair for not giving him the resources he needed, even though they were reluctant to give over resources without any kind of coherent plan in place (which is, frankly, reasonable), nor was Sloly following proper procedure for requesting additional resources under the Ontario policing legislation. Sloly also repeatedly contradicted documentary evidence, and attributed attacks against him to be rumours. There was some pretty disturbing stuff about how Navigator was involved in the decision-making, and how they were essentially testing how different parts of the city would react to actions to clear the occupation, which is a really, really questionable way for police to make decisions about how they’re upholding laws.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1587096886388969472

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1587231274640490496

Meanwhile, we also got a look at the “intelligence” that the occupation was operating on, as a self-styled “expert” compiled these reports for organisers which are replete with fanciful notions of the Trudeau government trying to make this a Tiananmen Square-style event to crush dissenters. No, seriously. Other documents show that the RCMP union felt the decision to allow the trucks to park near Parliament Hill represented an unacceptable risk, and how they were preparing to respond to the request for their services. Other texts tabled with the inquiry show Marco Mendicino’s office trying to come up with a communications strategy before the convoy arrived and began the occupation.

Elsewhere, Doug Ford goes to court today to try and keep from testifying at the public inquiry. Justice Rouleau, who leads the inquiry, is seeking to have that application dismissed, saying that Ford is overstating his parliamentary privilege to avoid having to testify. But while Ford claims he’s too busy to testify, he spent yesterday putting out folksy pumpkin-carving videos, so yeah, that’s going to be a problem.

https://twitter.com/dgardner/status/1587114402851033091

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 251:

More heavy Russian bombardment of Kyiv has cut most power and water in the city, as the plan to try and demoralise the capital continues. Other cities were hit as well, and one missile that the Ukrainians shot down fell into a border city in Moldova, though no casualties resulted. Russia is claiming retaliation for attacks on their ships in the Black Sea, though Ukraine denies attacking them.

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Roundup: The wrong way to humanize politics

I see that Government House Leader Mark Holland was making the media rounds over the weekend about his call for more “humanity” in politics, as he continues to plead for hybrid sessions to continue indefinitely. The problem, however, is that the two are fundamentally incompatible. Do you know why? Because what humanises politicians to one another is to spend time together, face-to-face. Hybrid sittings will keep MPs in isolated bubbles where they have fewer and fewer interactions with their fellow MPs in person, making it harder to see them and treat them as human beings, and we know this because we have seen the decline in civility in real-time since the 1990s when they ended evening sittings in the House of Commons to be “family friendly.” It used to be that three nights a week, MPs would go upstairs at six PM, and all have dinner together in the Parliamentary Restaurant, and at 8 PM, they’d go back to the Chamber, and debate some more. And lo, there was a lot more civility and treating each other in a friendly manner, Question Period theatrics aside, because they spent time with one another as human beings, doing that basic human thing of bonding over food (and yes, booze, because we cannot deny that it was a big part of the culture up until that point, for better or worse). But when they ended those sittings, and MPs no longer ate together, the acrimony got worse, and disagreements got more personal.

I cannot stress this enough—hybrid makes this worse. I know that there is a school of thought that it lets MPs spend more time at home, which gives them more work-life balance, and so on, but to be perfectly frank, the job is in Ottawa. The job is not to be a social worker for constituents filling out passport forms and doing immigration paperwork—the job is to hold the government to account, and doing so by controlling the public purse, meaning scrutiny of the Estimates and the Public Accounts, and debating their legislative proposals along the way. We are straying far from this path, and taking this hybrid makes the slide worse. The job is also face-to-face, because it relies on building relationships, and that doesn’t happen over Zoom. You have heard me time and again saying that the real work happens on the side-lines of committee rooms, in hallways and lobbies, and when you’re talking to ministers while you’re waiting for a vote to happen. This is all in danger of falling away the more MPs move to hybrid (and “virtual” voting is becoming an absolute disaster for MPs being able to approach ministers), and that is not a “more human” approach to politics. It is in fact the opposite, and people need to wake up and realize that fact.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 250:

Russia pulled out of the deal with the UN to allow Ukrainian grain shipments over the Black Sea, likely because their ships were hit by attacks over the weekend, but the UN and Turkey say they are going to ensure those shipments still happen, essentially daring Russia to attack them, so we’ll see how that goes.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1586779214069407745

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Roundup: Sloly’s first day at the inquiry

It was the first of two days that former Ottawa police chief Peter Sloly took the stand at the Emergencies Act public inquiry, and, well, ooooof. The man did not acquit himself or his actions very well. He blamed the media for the perception that the police weren’t doing anything (erm, they weren’t), he defended the belief that the occupation would end in two or three days, he praised the officer who fed him the widely discredited Rex Murphy-sourced intelligence, and generally insisted that everyone was doing the best job that they could, but wow. Oh, and then he got emotional and teary at the end about how the situation that he allowed to escalate got to be too much. No, seriously.

https://twitter.com/robert_hiltz/status/1586011336987009029

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1586075397212770304

 

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 248 (because apparently, I lost a day somewhere):

Kyiv is facing increasing blackouts as a result of increased Russian attacks on electrical infrastructure. Russian forces continue to shell Bakhmut, in the hopes that it could open the way to hitting other strongholds in the Donetsk region, and that it could blunt the advance on the southern city of Kherson, which itself is a gateway to Crimea.

Good reads:

  • Justin Trudeau unveiled a new five-year bond-buying programme for Canadians to support Ukraine financially, along with new sanctions on Russians.
  • Chrystia Freeland announced that the Fall Economic Statement will be delivered on November 3rd (just before the constituency week, so they can fan out to sell it).
  • As of August, the federal government was still in a surplus position.
  • The federal government is moving to restrict the involvement of foreign state-own enterprises in the critical minerals sector.
  • Health Canada is looking to hire an external company to process dental claims in a standalone federal insurance programme rather than involving the provinces.
  • In advance of the COP27 meeting in Egypt, developed nations haven’t stepped up to meet climate finance goals, and Canada may be asked to do more.
  • The Supreme Court of Canada struck down elements of the mandatory registration to the federal sex offender registry in all cases, restoring judicial discretion.
  • MPs on the Heritage committee pushed back at Meta’s threat to remove news content from Facebook if they go ahead with the online news bill.
  • Premiers are huffing and puffing at the news that Trudeau is looking to play hard ball with them on future health care transfers.
  • It looks like Doug Ford was happy to participate in the public inquiry back in June, but has now changed his tune and lawyered up to avoid having to testify.
  • Susan Delacourt ruminates on how politicians have dealt with defeat, and whether some rebounds are more of a sign of workaholism.
  • Justin Ling goes through the public inquiry documents to confirm that yes, there were concerns about weapons in the occupation, and firearms charges were laid.
  • My weekend column on the facile inflation narratives coming from the opposition, and the inability of the government to call it out.

Odds and ends:

Governor General Mary May Simon’s Coat of Arms was revealed yesterday.

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Roundup: Lost faith in the Ottawa Police Service

Once again, a lot of threads to disentangle as the OPP Commissioner, Thomas Carrique, was on the stand at the Emergencies Act public inquiry, and what a lot of the day seemed to focus on (at least, from what I could tell from afar) were the texts he was exchanging with RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki. So, what did we learn? That the federal government had pretty much lost all confidence in the Ottawa Police and were discussing taking over the response to the occupation, even though Lucki was particularly reluctant to do so (and worried that the Emergencies Act would be used to make that happen). There was discussion about the OPP in particular taking over, and the Commissioner was ready to have that call before the Ottawa chief resigned. Once Peter Sloly was out of the way, an integrated command was set up. Also interesting was the comment that the Act was used to compensate tow truck drivers more than it was to compel their services (which could be a signal to the provinces about how they may need to update their own emergency legistlation).

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1585629449038577664

Carrique defended his comments that the occupation was a threat to national security, and the way that the blockade of the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor was handled differently than the Ottawa occupation. Documents provided to the inquiry showed that the FBI provided some support to the Ottawa Police during the occupation, likely around US-based support for it, so that lends some credence to the national security threat analysis.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1585720241979629569

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 246:

Ukrainian forces attacked Russian forces occupying the southern city of Kherson, while fighting also intensified in the country’s east as Russians bombarded the city of Bakhmut. While Putin is denying he plans to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine (isn’t that a sign he will?), another mass grave was discovered in the village of Kopanky.

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