Roundup: Preparing for another rally, this time of bikers

It is now approximately day sixty-five of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russians fired two missiles at Kyiv while UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres was visiting, which is not a good thing. There are also concerns that Russia will attempt sham referendums in the southern and eastern parts of the country that they have captured as an attempt to legitimise their occupations. Elsewhere in Europe, Russia’s decision to cut off Poland and Bulgaria off from natural gas as a form of blackmail was met with condemnation from the rest of Europe, and given that Putin sees a united Europe as a threat, his attempts to divide the community is not working very well.

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Closer to home, Ottawa is bracing for a different kind of convoy this weekend, this time led by motorcycles instead of trucks, and they claim to be veterans concerned about freedoms, and much like the previous occupation, while there were a handful of truckers involved, I’m not sure how many legitimate veterans will be in this rally, or that it won’t have the same group of far-right extremists, grifters, conspiracy theorists, and grievance tourists tagging along. There don’t seem to be as many links in organisers between this rally and the previous occupation, given that many of them are either in jail or on bail, but that’s not necessarily indicative of the others that tag along. This time, the police seem much more alert to the situation—and to the fact that they are on thin ice with the people of Ottawa (seriously, the whole force needs to be disbanded), and they have set up exclusion zones and barred the rally from stopping at the War Memorial as they had planned, which is just as well because it shouldn’t be used as a symbol for these kinds of events. RCMP and OPP are already in the city in preparation, and the city has announced a bylaw crackdown during the rally.

As for the previous occupation, the added security around Parliament Hill cost $6.3 million in parliamentary security alone, with another $4.5 million being racked up in overtime for Parliamentary Protection Services officers. And then there are the $36.3 million the city is demanding that the federal government foot the bill for (though frankly the city should swallow some of this out of their police budget considering how useless the Ottawa Police were and that they allowed the occupation to take hold). One wonders how much this upcoming rally is going to add to that total.

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QP: Concerns about the scope of the inquiry

Despite the fact that he gave a press conference outside of the Chamber minutes before QP, the prime minister was not present, nor were any of the other leaders. Luc Berthold led off, and in French, he accused the government of writing the Emergencies Act inquiry’s findings before it even began. Chrystia Freeland slowly read some talking points about the blockades and occupation, and said they look forward to the inquiry report. Berthold again accused the government of fixing the report in their favour, and Freeland read that the measures were targeted and limited, and that they had a duty to protect Canadians and the economy, which they met. Berthold then switched to the torqued story on the RCMP memo and demanded a new investigation, which Freeland slowly and patiently read that the opposition was bringing up a six-year-old matter that has been settled. James Bezan took over in English to demand a new RCMP investigation, and Freeland again slowly read the same talking points in English. Bezan selectively quoted the RCMP memo, without quoting that they concluded there was no evidence, and Freeland responded that Canadians are instead demanding action on climate change, to build more house, and to support Ukraine.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he complained that a new committee was being set up to deal with the Winnipeg Lab documents without the consent of two opposition parties, and Freeland read that they came up with a reasonable solution, and that they would move ahead with this committee. Therrien repeated his complaint, and Freeland repeated her answer.

Alexandre Boulerice led for the NDP by video, and said that Quebeckers demand universal pharmacare—erm, which would be an issue of provincial jurisdiction—and demanded a federal solution. Freeland read that they announced an agreement with PEI last August as a first step, but they were continuing the work. Matthew Green raised the plan to lift the federal sickness benefit and demanded the enactment of ten paid sick days (in federally-regulated workplaces, surely). Freeland praised working with unions and their legislation to make those sick days happen.

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QP: An inept attempt at prosecution

All leaders were present today once again, which is always nice to see, particularly on proto-PMQ day. Candice Bergen led off, script in front of her, and she torqued the responses made by minister at the special committee last night and accused the government of covering up misdeeds behind Cabinet confidence, and that they would do the same at the inquiry. Justin Trudeau stood up and read a script that stated that existing provincial and territorial laws were insufficient, and on the advice of law enforcement, they invoked the Emergencies Act narrowly and in a limited manner. Bergen accused the government of using the inquiry to call the “innocent” occupiers “racists and misogynists,” but Trudeau largely repeated his same points. Bergen then pivoted to demand that Trudeau meet with the RCMP over the Aga Khan vacation, and Trudeau retorted that this was an issue three Conservative leaders ago. Bergen insisted this was serious because of possible criminal charges, and demanded to know if he met with private criminal council about this matter, for which Trudeau listed things that were more relevant than this settled matter. Bergen sermonised about whether the prime minister considers himself above the law, and Trudeau listed more things the Conservatives don’t want to talk about.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he thundered about the lack of French in federal institutions, and demanded basic knowledge of French at businesses headquarters in Quebec. Trudeau read a script about how unacceptable it as that CN Rail appointed a unilingual English board, and they were working on rectifying it. Blanchet was indignant and raised that the Governor General and the lieutenant governor of New Brunswick could not speak French, and Trudeau noted that Mary Simon is Indigenous, and she is taking intensive French classes.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he decried that delayed action on the environment was the same as denial. Singh quoted the Environment Commissioner to say that the government’s plan was not viable, and Trudeau read a script noting how far they have come in the past seven years.

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Roundup: The showboat special committee

It’s now around day sixty-three of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia is waving around the threat of nuclear action if NATO members don’t stop arming Ukraine, which some are taking as mere talk. But still. There have also been more attacks over the border in Moldova, which Russia is trying to blame on Ukraine. Allied defence ministers met in Germany, and more weapons are on the way to Ukraine, so that warning by Russia isn’t dissuading them too much.

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Closer to home, the special joint committee on the Emergencies Act (which is not the inquiry) held their first major meetings last night, hearing from two ministers, and ostensibly the commissioner of the RCMP and the head of CSIS, but those latter two barely got any questions, because like I predicted seven weeks ago, this was really just about showboating as opposed to substance. And yeah—showboating and demands to release documents that we have no idea if they’d actually be relevant (but still operating under the assumption that the government is engaged in some sort of cover-up), while Conservatives still went to bat for the far-right extremists, grifters and conspiracy theorists who made up the occupation.

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What we did hear from Marco Mendicino included the fact that the Ottawa Police being the police of jurisdiction created challenges, and that that they had no choice but to invoke the Act in as limited way as possible. The head of CSIS did manage to get a question, in which he said that the agency is spending about fifty percent of their time currently on ideologically-motivated violent extremism, and that extremist content in the occupation didn’t surprise him. You can read Rachel Aiello’s livetweeting thread here for more, but it was pretty ridiculous overall. It’s a sad indictment of the fact that we are no longer a serious parliament made up of serious people, taking the business of the nation seriously.

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QP: Go meet with the RCMP again

The prime minister was present today, as were all other leaders, so that was a nice change. Candice Bergen led off with her script, and she declared that “fraud on the government” occurred with relation to the prime minister’s trip to the Aga Khan’s private island—the details of which Bergen omitted and framed to sound more lurid—to which Justin Trudeau noted that this was dealt with five years ago, and that the Conservatives were focused on him while he was focused on Canadians. Bergen demanded a yes or no answer as to whether he gave himself permission to break the law, and Trudeau gave a resounding no, and that the RCMP decided there was nothing to pursue, and that it was thoroughly investigated by third parties, while the government doesn’t interfere in the RCMP’s operations. Bergen suggested that Trudeau go back to the RCMP to let them reconsider, and he more emphatically noted that government does not direct the RCMP. Luc Berthold took over in French, demanded the same response on the decision not to pursue the fraud charge, and Trudeau again repeated that this matter was put to bed and that the RCMP made their own decision. Berthold tried to suss this out further, and he too demanded that Trudeau meet with the RCMP again, and Trudeau listed the things the government was doing while the Conservatives were playing petty politics.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and accused Trudeau of disrespecting Canadians and Ukrainians by not chartering flights for those refugees, to which Trudeau read the script that they are working safely and effectively, and thanks to the emergency travel fund, it was the safest and most effective way to act. Blanchet took issue with the rapidity at which this is happening, and Trudeau insisted that they were taking all measures to expedite this travel.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and after some word salad about profits and corporations, he demanded the government block the proposed merger between Rogers and Shaw. Trudeau noted that they set a goal to lower prices, it actually happened, which is why they were focused on competition and access. Singh switched to French to repeat the demand, and Trudeau recited the same response that did not address the demand.

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Roundup: Questions on the inquiry terms

It is now on or about day sixty-two of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and there were missile strikes throughout the country as Russian forces targeted Ukraine’s rail infrastructure, with a particular eye toward disrupting the ability to move weapons coming in from allied countries in the west toward their positions in the eastern part of the country. (This is the kind of operational security that is at stake when our government won’t give specifics about their weapons shipments). As well, the American officials who just visited Kyiv have said that more weapons are on the way, and that they are hoping to resume activity in their embassies within the country within the next few weeks, and hopefully in Kyiv itself, which would be a major symbolic move (and yes, Canada is making its own considerations for resuming activities, depending on the security situation).

Closer to home, the government waited until the very last moment to launch the public inquiry into the use of the Emergencies Act, as the Act stipulates. Justice Paul Rouleau of the Ontario Court of Appeal will head the inquiry, and has 300 days to table his final report in Parliament. While I have a column that delves further into this, I did want to put a few comments here, from national security experts Jessica Davis and Leah West, about particular observations they have about the terms of reference for this inquiry:

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QP: Resurrecting a five-year-old scandal

After a number of tributes for Guy Lafleur, and one for former astronaut Bjarni Tryggvason, things got underway after the two-week break. While he was in town, the prime minister was absent, but his deputy was present, so that was something, though no other leaders were present either. Luc Berthold led off in French, and he he decried the budget, accusing the prime minster of being out of touch. Chrystia Freeland replied that Canadians understand that inflation is a global phenomenon, and she listed some international comparisons to show that Canada was lower, citing the reasons as COVID and Putin. Berthold then pivoted to the story in the Globe and Mail about the RCMP considering laying a fraud charge against the prime minister for the trip to the Aga Khan’s private island, to which Mark Holland stood up to say that this matter was settled years ago. Berthold insisted this proved Trudeau’s lack of judgment, and decried the loophole in the law, and demanded to know when Trudeau last met with the RCMP, and Holland repeated his response. James Bezan repeated the question about the story in English, and he wondered if the prime minister gave himself the power to break the law, and Mark Holland got back up to recite in English that this was settled five years ago and that the Ethics Commissioner had a report. Bezan repeated his question, and Holland sang the praises about the government’s economic actions.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he led with this dubious court decision of the appointment of a unilingual lieutenant governor of New Brunswick, saying it demonstrates that the government treats francophones as second-class citizens, and Ginette Petitpas-Taylor insisted that the LG was taking French lessons, and why they were modernising the Official Languages Act. Therrien kept after this, and added to his outrage the appointment of a unilateral anglophone board of directors at CN Rail, and Omar Alghabra insisted that this board would be rectified in the next round of appointments.

Rachel Blaney rose for the NDP, and she raised the fact that the seniors reimbursed for GIS clawbacks were subjected to a time limit, for which Kamal Khera rose to recite her praise for the government’s actions on seniors. Don Davies raised the fact that the government was backing down on some PMPRB regulatory changes for drug pricing, and Adam van Koeverden read a statement about balancing access for new medicines and lowering drug prices.

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Roundup: Higher inflation than expected

It is now day fifty-seven (or so) of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and hope is waning for the remaining defenders of Mariupol, and the civilians still sheltering there. As the fighting intensifies in the eastern part of the country, there are also concerns that it will devolve into a war of attrition, which Russia has historically been more able to withstand. We have also learned more about what happened when Russian troops occupied Chernobyl, where staff were working at gunpoint, and sleeping three hours a night in order to safeguard the site and ensure that Russians didn’t tamper with any of the equipment there.

Closer to home, the inflation numbers were released yesterday, and they were much higher than expected, as conflict inflation brought on by the aforementioned invasion of Ukraine is hitting. And of course, most media outlets were useless in explaining the causes of it, while the parties were equally useless in their own reactions. The government keeps focusing on their talking points about things like child care and dental care, and the fact that they indexed benefits, rather than actually explaining the drivers. The Conservatives are railing about “printing money” (which, to be clear, nobody is actually doing) and insisting that the government should declare a GST holiday, which would a) do nothing for grocery prices as most groceries are GST-exempt; and b) would have a stimulative effect and just fuel even more inflation, especially as people would be likely to use said GST holiday to buy big-ticket items. And the NDP, predictably, chalk this up to greed and want higher wealth taxes, which again, do very little about the drivers of inflation.

And then there’s the Bank of Canada, who will be forced to respond with higher rate hikes, but the question becomes whether they’ll keep the increases more gradual—another 50 basis points at the next meeting in June—of if they’ll go even higher as a way of demonstrating that they are really taking this seriously and that the system of inflation control that they’ve been responsible for since the 1990s will prevail. It doesn’t directly address the drives, but it could be that the signals are more important than the actual policy at this point, because the bigger worry is the expectation that inflation will continue, which will turn it into a self-fulfilling prophecy—something they are very, very keen to avoid.

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Roundup: Displacing and dispersing Ukrainians into Russia?

We are now on day thirty of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and while Kyiv remains safe, there are reports that as many as 400,000 Ukrainians have been forcibly relocated into Russia, where they are being dispersed to economically depressed regions in that country. The Russians are claiming that these relocations are voluntary, but Ukrainian officials worry they may be used as hostages. Meanwhile, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the NATO summit happening in Brussels and asked for aircraft and tanks, but was mostly only promised more of the same kinds of aid that they have been receiving to date.

Closer to home, there are now two more prospective entrants into the Conservative leadership race—former floor-crosser-turned-deputy leader Leona Alleslev, who has launched a website and who has volunteers getting the necessary signatures required to launch a bid; as well, a failed candidate named Joel Etienne from York Centre, who has also put up a website and is collecting signatures. One of the other leadership candidates, Marc Dalton, seems to have enough self-awareness that he knows he’s a long-shot candidate, but seems to be pinning his hopes on the vagaries of preferential ballots as his salvation. Oh, and he still hasn’t lined up his entrance fee yet, so that’s probably a sign about his chances.

As these entrants keep lining up, Candice Bergen is warning them not to call those in the race that they disagree with as “not Conservative” because that’s “identity politics,” and they don’t want to wedge, divide and polarize, because that’s what they accuse the Liberals of doing—which is kind of hilarious when you think about it. They’ve explicitly framed this contest as one for the “soul of the party,” and the contest is going to entirely be about whether they find a leader who can appeal to enough of the moderate Canadians in the suburbs who can deliver them an election victory, or whether they retrench into their “values” and electoral consequences be damned because they’re acting like Conservatives and not Liberals. And when you set up the contest as one about what constitutes those “values,” with a purity test or two thrown up around them, who is and is not a Conservative is going to be a bigger sticking point in this race the longer it goes on.

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Roundup: A growing humanitarian crisis

We are now on day fourteen of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and some of the big concerns are the growing humanitarian ones—not only the inability to safely get civilians out of cities under bombardment, but the fact that in some of those cities, particularly Mariupol, people are trapped with no electricity, little food, running water, or medical supplies. Meanwhile, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the British Parliament via video, and called on them for even tougher sanctions against the “terrorist state” Russia. The US has decided to ban all Russian oil and gas, while corporations like McDonald’s and Starbucks have decided to suspend operations in Russia (though more likely because the ruble is nearly worthless and not something they want to be doing business in).

Justin Trudeau was in Latvia for NATO meetings, where he announced that Canada’s mission there would be extended for several more years. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also made the point of warning Russia against attacking any supply lines supporting Ukraine within NATO territory, citing that it would trigger Article 5. Poland also floated the idea of sending fighter planes to a US/NATO base in Germany to then somehow send to Ukraine, but the Pentagon nixed the idea as unworkable.

All of this talk, of course, leads to yet more questions about military spending in Canada, and that “two percent of GDP” target, which is a very poor metric.

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