Roundup: New Zealand’s leadership selection

New Zealand is about to have a new prime minister, and lo, it was a process that took a single day. Yes, it was an acclamation where only one person put his name forward (“to avoid disunity,”), but that is less of an issue because New Zealand is one of the last remaining parliaments where it’s decided by a vote held within the caucus among the MPs—the way that Westminster parliaments are supposed to work. And of course, it’s completely alien to how things have devolved in this country.

The quasi-American pseudo-presidential primary system that we’ve adopted in this country is corrosive to politics. It has hollowed out the political parties, and pretty much killed grassroots riding associations, because they no longer matter to the party. Memberships—paid or unpaid (as is the latest craze)—is about leadership selection, not sticking around to do the hard policy work, because the parties have centralized that and justify it using Big Data. It’s all about populating databases rather than ensuring you have a base of engaged partisans who act as a link between the community and the caucus in Parliament. The leader then turns the party into a personality cult while they wield almost absolute power because there are almost no checks on that remaining. At least with caucus selection, there is a direct line of accountability so that the caucus that chose the leader can remove said leader as well, which is one of the most important considerations.

Suffice to say, while one might have preferred that they at least had a vote between two candidates for the job, the fact that they have retained caucus selection is important, and Canada needs to return to the same system if we are to have any hope of fixing the damage to our system.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 332:

Russian forces claim that they took control of the town of Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmut, which their mercenaries claimed to have taken already. And they’re still claiming they’ve taken Soledar, which Ukraine disputes. Meanwhile, the NATO meeting in Ramstein, Germany, ended without an agreement on sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, as Germany is the holdout and needs to authorize the use of their technology.

https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1616506280876642317

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Roundup: A nightclub shooting and sportwashing

There was another shooting at an LGBTQ+ nightclub over the weekend, this time in Colorado Springs. It comes after a marked increase of far-right groups targeting drag queens and trans people, and make no mistake that such rhetoric is very much leaking into Canada, and was present in the election through the People’s Party, and featured in some of the discourse coming out of the occupation in Ottawa back in February. It is having an impact here—I’ve spoken to out gay MPs who say they haven’t faced these kinds of threats in years, but now they’ve made a comeback, and this is going to mean a concerted effort to take this seriously in our politics. Unfortunately, I’m not sure how much I trust that it’ll happen, given that our current government talks a better game than they do in following through, and the Conservatives are hoovering up the far-right tactics and propaganda as a way of trying to use the far right to win votes rather than playing to the centre, and Poilievre has insulated himself from criticism on this by putting his two out MPs in his leadership team, including making Melissa Lantsman one of his deputy leaders.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1594362156547547145

https://twitter.com/carl_s_charles/status/1594358215226990598

With this in mind, and Trudeau’s words especially, I am curious why he and his government then chose to send a delegation, led by Harjit Sajjan, to the FIFA World Cup in Qatar, a country that criminalises LGBTQ+ people, and which is essentially a modern slave state where hundreds of migrant workers died in order to build the facilities for these games. By choosing to send the delegation (as opposed to letting Team Canada participate), they are actively participating in the sportswashing happening. Not to say that Canada hasn’t done its share of sportswashing (thinking especially of the Vancouver winter Olympics), but this is egregious, and incredibly disappointing that they made this choice.

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Roundup: A minor Cabinet swap

As expected, there was a very minor Cabinet shuffle yesterday, and it was less of a shuffle than a two-person swap. Filomena Tassi takes over as minister responsible for the Federal Economic Development Agency of Southern Ontario, while the incumbent, Helena Jaczek, takes over as minister of public services and procurement. The reason? Tassi’s husband suffered two strokes, and has had a difficult recovery, so she requested a lighter workload, and Trudeau obliged. Jaczek, meanwhile, is a former Ontario health minister, so she’s not unaccustomed to big files. What is perhaps most significant is that Trudeau accommodated her in order to ensure that she didn’t have to choose between family and her job, which is a very rare thing, even in this day and age where there remains an expectation that women give up their jobs and careers in order to play caretaker roles. That kind of a signal should count for something.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 189:

Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency arrived at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant yesterday, in an attempt to stabilise the situation there. Meanwhile, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that his forces are attacking Russian positions along the entire front line, trying to retake the south as well as going on the offensive in the east. We’ll see in the coming days how effective this has been, but British intelligence suggests that there have been successes in three parts of the southern region, but didn’t give any details.

Good reads:

  • Following the shuffle, Trudeau said that Canadians have lost faith in the leadership of Hockey Canada, as they insist on retaining their CEO for some unknown reason.
  • Trudeau also said the government would look into allegations that a CSIS informant smuggled teenaged girls from the UK into Syria.
  • Chrystia Freeland insists that Albertans are “kind and welcoming” in spite of being accosted last week. (They’re kind and welcoming if you conform, you mean).
  • Pablo Rodriguez has belatedly condemned the antisemitic tweets from the “anti-racism” contractor his department hired.
  • Health Canada is expected to announce the approval of the omicron-specific boosters today (though this was for BA.1, even though BA.4 and .5 are dominant).
  • Fourteen months later, the military won’t say what their investigation into alleged atrocities caught on video involving Iraqi police yielded.
  • The CRTC announced that they will adopt 988 as a national suicide prevention hotline number, but it won’t be in operation until November of next year.
  • 325 First Nations are launching a class action lawsuit to demand reparations from the government for the cultural devastation wrought by residential schools.
  • The so-called “Centre Ice Conservatives” changed their name to “Centre Ice Canadians” to appeal to a broader audience (not that it’ll help).
  • Using their majority to circumvent the process, the Ford government bullied through a bill that can force people in hospitals into long-term care facilities.
  • The UCP leadership candidates had their final debate on Tuesday night, and it was as bankrupt of real ideas as you might expect.
  • Althia Raj talks to Elizabeth May about her decision to run for co-leader of the Green Party, and why that’s different from her time as full-on leader.
  • Paul Wells contemplates the “temperamental centre” of Canadian politics, and what that could mean for the two main federal parties going forward.
  • My column takes note of the fact that the government is experimenting in frank discussion when it comes to the wait times issues, which is a good first step.

Odds and ends:

For Xtra, I delved into the new Federal 2SLGBTQI+ Action Plan and got some reaction from stakeholders in the community.

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Roundup: Ford omitting the accountability part

Justin Trudeau met with Doug Ford at Queen’s Park yesterday, and Ford says that they are on the same page about the urgent need for healthcare reform, and that the status quo isn’t working. But what I find interesting is that Ford didn’t go into any details, the prime minister did put out a readout of the meeting later in the evening, and yes, healthcare was mentioned, but in a somewhat different context than what Ford told reporters after the meeting”

“They also spoke about pressures on the healthcare system and the importance of funding and accountability to deliver for Canadians. The prime minister emphasised that the Government of Canada is committed to continue working with provinces and territories to support public health systems that deliver quality healthcare for all Canadians.”

The use of accountability stood out for me, because this is what the federal government is pushing—ensuring that any future health transfers go to the healthcare system, and not a tax cut or to pad a province’s surplus like they did with the billions of dollars in pandemic aid that provinces were given. The premiers continue to balk at this, but we’re not all blind and dumb, and we can see them rolling around in money (Alberta and BC both announced higher-than-anticipated surpluses), so them not investing in their own healthcare systems when they obviously have the money to do so is not going to endear them to the federal government as these talks continue.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 188:

The supposed counter-attack around Kherson has seen explosions of ammo dumps and bridges, but it remains difficult to see what is going on there. Russia claims they repelled the attack and caused hundreds of casualties, but they have lied about absolutely everything in this whole invasion thus far, so they are unlikely to be reliable sources. Russian forces elsewhere continued shelling the port of Kykolaiv, as well as Kharkiv in the north. Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors will need to cross an active battlefield to reach the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

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Roundup: Fiscally sustainable, in spite of the narratives

It’s now day one-hundred-and-fifty-six of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, and they have started shelling the Kyiv area once again for the first time in weeks. Russians are also pounding the northern Chernihiv region, which observers are linking to the Day of Statehood celebrations—something that president Volodymyr Zelenskyy instituted last year to remind the country of their history as an independent state, and was celebrated for the first time earlier this week. Meanwhile, Ukrainian counter-attacks in the south have virtually cut-off the Russian forces in Kherson and have left their forces near the Dnipro River “highly vulnerable,” as Russians shift forces from the east to the south, putting them from an attack posture to a defensive one.

Closer to home, the Parliamentary Budget Officer has declared that Canada’s fiscal outlook is sustainable in the long term, even if some of the provinces’ outlooks are not. This amidst weeks and months of wailing and gnashing of teeth that the current government has spent us into oblivion (they haven’t) and that they have saddled future generations with so much debt (again, they haven’t, and that’s not how government debt works), and that this is fuelling inflation (it’s not). Anyway, here is economist Kevin Milligan to walk us through the report:

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1552671459797090306

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1552672685326491649

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1552674017588510727

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1552693987399667713

Programming Note: I am taking the next week-ish off while I have the chance. Loonie Politics columns will continue in the interim, but otherwise expect to see me back in the second week of August. Thanks everyone!

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Roundup: Self-awareness and civilian control

When it comes to the issue of sexual misconduct in the Canadian Forces, there seems to be an epidemic of a lack of self-awareness. This is demonstrated time and again within the ranks as officers are given inappropriate promotions (remember the head of personnel who had known sexual misconduct allegations), are protected by the top brass (General Jonathan Vance, the infamous golf game earlier in the year), and the issue with Major-General Peter Dawe being given the role of sorting through the various reports on reforming military culture after he was suspended for writing the glowing letter for someone under his command who had been convicted of sexual assault. Every time, this has to be pointed out to them and how inappropriate their actions continue to be.

But it’s not just the ranks that lack self-awareness – it’s also their political masters. During a media availability yesterday, both prime minister Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland also had harsh words for the military’s inability to exercise self-awareness on the sexual misconduct file – but they have a role to play there as well, because in a democracy like ours, the military answers to civilian control. In our particular system, that should be going through the Chief of Defence Staff to the Minister of National Defence – but the current minister, Harjit Sajjan, has made it clear that he is not exercising his responsibility for civilian control, and is not properly overseeing the CDS, or his top decisions. Part of this may be because he is former military (he was actually active when he was elected and needed to go through the discharge process so that the CDS could no longer outrank him), and is steeped in the culture and cannot adequately see the reality of what is going on, or why he needs to exercise civilian control. And no, I’m not sure it was any better under the previous government either, who also appointed a former general to Minister of Defence (Gordon O’Connor), and generally let the military run their own show – especially with procurement, which is why there were so many botched files, from the F-35 to joint supply ships.

We need to re-assert civilian control by means of a competent minister who doesn’t have a military background, and someone who can actually perform some managerial competence and keep the CDS on a tight leash. But that may depend on Trudeau having enough self-awareness of his own recognise that this is what needs to happen as he decides on how to shuffle his Cabinet, and I’m losing confidence that this could actually happen.

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Roundup: Green insiders spill the tea

This apparently was the weekend for the tea to start being spilled about what was really going on inside the Green Party, and we got a lot of details. The primary one is this lengthy read that details the struggles inside the party, and there is plenty of blame to go around, but what is on offer here really shows that Annamie Paul was a key author in her own misfortune. To add to that, Elizabeth May also writes in her own words an account of why she stayed silent on Paul’s orders, how she tried to support Paul in any way possible including offering to resign and let Paul run in her riding, which is the first time I’ve heard that such an offer had been made. More to the point, it is a fairly detailed accounting of how Paul misunderstood how Greens view their own leadership, and tried to impose a very top-down view of it, including demanding that her MPs didn’t speak to the media, and how even now, Paul announced her intentions to resign but hasn’t formally done so, which is why the party is in a weird state of limbo.

While once again I have no doubt that racism, misogyny and antisemitism all played a role in Paul’s departure, her own actions were certainly part of what happened, from her salary demands (she wanted the party to pay a salary equivalent as though she were a sitting MP), to her control over the party that was unlike the party’s constitution, which the national council largely did accede to. This being said, everything that has come out this weekend really makes me think that the glass cliff narrative is less likely a driving force in what happened, and a more complicated series of events took place. It is too bad, given how Paul did acquit herself on the national debate stage for the most part (until you realised her answer for everything was “we have to work together”) and it’s a shame that it all came to this.

Meanwhile, May also stated over the weekend that she won’t take the interim leader position, and says she wants Paul Manly, who lost his seat, to do the job until they can run another leadership contest. Of course, it may be too late for the party by this point, but we’ll see if they can salvage what remains, but it’s not looking promising.

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Roundup: Alberta is broken, part eleventy-seven

Things are increasingly broken in Alberta, and I’m not referring to the province’s horrific case rates, collapsing ICUs, and Jason Kenney’s continued refusal to take appropriate public health measures in the face of this. No, I’m referring to the fact that a group of MLAs including the gods damned Speaker and deputy Speaker came out as quasi-separatists yesterday with a looney-tunes “Free Alberta Strategy” which is 100 percent handwaving and pretending that they can simply opt-out of federally-imposed laws by sheer force of political will, and the mistaken notion that Quebec did it and they can too. (Spoiler: Quebec didn’t actually do it, and what few things it did do pretty much devastated their economy). This thread helps to clarify a lot of what they’re asking for and why it’s eye-rollingly ludicrous.

There are a few things to unpack here. Much of this stems from Kenney’s farcical referendums that will take place next month, the central of which is to demand a renegotiation of equalisation, which is where these quasi-separatist loons are drawing their inspiration from. It encouraged this kind of magical thinking that somehow Alberta could just stamp its feet and hold its breath and the federal government would somehow surrender its jurisdiction over things. That’s not how this works. But it’s also about Kenney’s entire attitude toward governing, and how he was building anger toward Trudeau in particular so that it would distract the population from his own failings. I have tended to liken Kenney to an arsonist who would set fires and get far enough ahead of them to put them out so that he can look like a hero – but he hasn’t put them out. He poured a glass of water on them and demanded a medal, while the very fires he set are spreading. Everything that is happening in this province all started with a match that has his name and fingerprints all over it. It’s not just trying to pretend that there’s a “good parts only” version of populism that he’s cherry-picking, or that he is somehow “tapping a relief well” to keep it from blowing up in his face. It blew up. The province is in a crisis, and he keeps lighting more fires because he can’t help himself. Things are going to get even worse in the coming weeks, and try as he might, Kenney has nobody to blame but himself.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1442925906679320582

And then there’s the whole issue with the Speaker and his deputy. This is the second time now that said Speaker has compromised the avowed neutrality of his position, and he needs to be removed by the Legislature at once, as well as his deputy. It is unacceptable that they remain in their positions any longer, as they cannot be trusted to be neutral presiding officers in the Legislature.

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Roundup: Did Paul hit a glass cliff?

Not unexpectedly, Green Party leader Annamie Paul announced her resignation yesterday morning, citing that she didn’t have the heart to go through the restarted leadership review process, and saying that she didn’t expect when she smashed the glass ceiling, that the shards would rain down on her and that she’d have to walk over them. Without denying that some of her problems related to racism, misogyny and antisemitism, I find myself somewhat conflicted about the notion that she is a case of a glass cliff.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1442538999579561984

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1442541082126913547

Why I’m unsure this is necessarily applicable is because the party wasn’t in a great deal of a mess when Elizabeth May decided she no longer wanted to be leader, and it was certainly doing well electorally (they had just won two additional seats for the first time ever federally), and they had some provincial successes that they were counting on. Unlike most “glass cliff” scenarios, it wasn’t like a woman or minority was brought in to clean up a mess or was outright set up to fail. But part of what happened is a problem that is getting more common in Canadian politics, which is that we have so utterly bastardised our party leadership selection processes and fetishised “outsiders” coming into parties to lead them that we have set up the expectation for someone like Paul, who had no political experience, to come in and lead a party as though it were an entry-level job. When Mike Moffatt talks about the pipeline of talent to replace a leader, that’s not unique to the Greens either – the federal Conservatives also suffer from that problem, in part because Stephen Harper actively killed the ambitions of anyone else in the party and surrounded himself with yes-men, so it’s no wonder that his successors have largely proven themselves to be duds (and Rona Ambrose was never intended to be a permanent leader, so any course-corrections she made to the party were largely undone by Scheer and O’Toole). Did Paul get mentorship and training to succeed? Erm, was there anyone in the party that could give it to her? Aside from Elizabeth May – which may be the problem. This is also a problem when you choose leaders who don’t have seats, and who lack the political judgment about how to go about seeking one as soon as possible (and when your sitting MPs refuse to give up their seat to the leader). There are a lot of points of failure here, including structural ones in how leadership contests are conducted – but I fear that simply calling this a glass cliff may be absolving Paul a little too much of her own culpability in her political demise.

Where the party goes from here we’ll have to see. May said she had no interest in being interim leader, though I suppose she will be back to being “parliamentary leader” for the party, though I suspect she may also want to make a run for Speaker as she has previously expressed a desire to do (which she will lose). But the party is going to find itself dealing with fairly existential questions pretty shortly.

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Roundup: Carney out, no need to panic

To the dismay of the bulk of the pundit class, Mark Carney says he has other climate-related commitments and won’t be running for a seat in the next election. In response, Pierre Poilievre tweeted that Carney is afraid of running because Trudeau will cause a financial meltdown, and Carney will try to blame it on Freeland. It’s just so stupid, and yet this is the state of public discourse in this country.

To be clear, there is no financial meltdown going to happen. Yes, there are challenges that need to be addressed, but let’s be real here.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1417623876880588800

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1417625158450225153

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