Tag Archives: Elections Canada

Roundup: Promising to capitulate to the oil companies

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Day ten, and things felt a bit more on track today now that the Paul Chiang situation didn’t loom over everything. Mark Carney was in Winnipeg, and re-announced his party’s affordability measures, such as the cancellation of the consumer carbon levy (though I’m not sure how losing the rebates after this quarter will help most households with affordability), his tax cut plan (which disproportionately helps the wealthy), and their various home building pledges along with the previously announced expansion of dental care this summer. That said, he also said expanding pharmacare likely wasn’t going to be a priority (but remember that pharmacare done in the dumbest way possible because the NDP insisted, so maybe it’ll give it time to negotiate a better system? But only if the premiers actually want to play ball, mind you, and they were reluctant beforehand. Carney is back in Ottawa today for “meetings” in advance of the tariff announcement this afternoon.

Pierre Poilievre was in Petty Harbour, Newfoundland and Labrador, and announced that he was going to cave to five demands from the oil industry, including repealing the Impact Assessment Act, scrap the emissions cap, the industrial carbon price, guarantee “six-month approvals” for projects (and good luck with that), and increase Indigenous loan guarantees for resource projects. Of course, the justifications he keeps pointing to are things that predated Trudeau and the IAA, and there are a tonne of approved projects on the books that aren’t moving ahead for market-based reasons. He’s selling a fiction about the need for more oil and gas projects which the market has not moved on, and is convinced this is the way to fight Trump. It’s baffling. Poilievre also insisted that the Liberals were going to bring the consumer carbon levy back once the election is over, just like Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole also insisted that the Liberals were going to tax the capital gains on your home. He later made an announcement in PEI about removing the automatic escalator on beer, wine and spirits, which…is a fraction of a cent every year. Honest to Dionysus… Poilievre will be in Toronto this morning, and heads to Kingston for the evening.

Jagmeet Singh was in Edmonton, and promised changes to the Canada Health Act to ensure that American corporations can’t buy Canadian healthcare facilities, and to put stronger controls on provinces who allow cash-for-access services. He later headed to Winnipeg and met with Wab Kinew. Singh remains in Winnipeg today.

In other campaign news, the Greens have qualified to be in the leaders’ debates, but Maxime Bernier and his vanity party have not (as it should be). Here is a comparison of the various carbon pricing (or not) policies as we now appear to be in a race to the bottom based on false premises. Here is an analysis of the various housing promises. And stories of frustration continue to leak out from the Conservative ranks.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians claim to have captured a new village in eastern Donetsk region. President Zelenskyy is meeting with a small number of countries about contributing troops as part of the security guarantee in the event the conflict does end.

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Roundup: Return of the tariff threat

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It was day four of the election, and this was the day Trump made his comeback. Before that happened, Mark Carney was in Windsor, and with the Ambassador Bridge as his backdrop, promised a package of measures to help build up more of a domestic supply chain for the auto sector in the face of tariffs, as well as a $2 billion strategic response fund for the fallout of tariffs on the economy.

It was in the evening that Trump made his announcement that 25 percent tariffs would apply to vehicles and major parts not made in the US, which is pretty fuzzy when it comes to the integrated nature of the industry. This was just before Carney’s rally in Kitchener, but he found an appropriate backdrop, and with Unifor president Lana Payne (whom he had already been meeting with when Trump made the announcement) came out to call this a direct attack on the country, and vowed to have a response, but also stated that he would be returning to Ottawa tonight in order to meet with Cabinet and his Canada-US committee in order to determine next steps in the response.

Pierre Poilievre was in Montmagny, Quebec, and laid out some measures to allow working seniors to keep more income tax free, keep savings in RRSPs longer, and now says he will keep retirement age at 65 if he forms government—a pander to wealthy Boomers. He also released his Quebec-specific platform that promised “responsible federalism,” and pledges to keep Radio-Canada intact (but outside of Quebec, they rely entirely on CBC infrastructure). He then headed to Quebec City for a rally, but when the Trump tariffs were announced, he made a statement that essentially blamed the Liberals for “ten years of economic weakness” and for “pushing” investment out of the country, and demanded that any counter-tariffs go to tax cuts (which is copying Trump). Today he’s off to Surrey, BC.

Jagmeet Singh remained in Hamilton, where he proposed his own tax cuts—increasing the basic personal amount, selective GST cut (which benefits high-income earners), restoring the capital gains increase, doubling the disability benefit (which will do little), and increasing GIS. It was entirely unspectacular, but that’s what we’ve come to expect from Singh. Post-tariff announcement, echoed Carney’s statement about it being a direct attack, then retreated to his previous canned line about needing to “fight like hell,” and complained that EI won’t do enough for any affected workers. He changed his plans to head to Windsor for the day after being called out by reporters.

A couple of other election notes:

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1904926061990735895

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched a mass drone attack on Kharkiv, injuring at least nine, with further attacks on Dnipro. Russia is claiming that Ukrainian drones attacked an electrical facility, while Ukraine says this is disinformation aimed at justifying continuing hostilities. Russia has attacked eight Ukrainian energy facilities since they said they were halting. Here’s an analysis of the Black Sea ceasefire, and how it is really a betrayal of Ukraine and of the US working in Russia’s interests.

Good reads:

  • Elections Canada is hiring 200,000 temporary positions for the election.
  • An Access to Information request shows how Justin Trudeau was preparing for his first call with Trump after he won the election.
  • The summary of the Bank of Canada’s deliberations show that they were prepared to pause any rate cuts, had it not been for the tariff threats.
  • The Atlantic published more screenshots from the group chat that their editor was inadvertently added to, in order to prove their veracity and classified nature.
  • The Globe and Mail’s sources™ say that Chandra Arya’s nomination was revoked because of ties to the Modi government, and some “troubling inconsistencies.”
  • Justin Trudeau is renting a home in the same neighbourhood as Rideau Hall, while his children finish out the school year, but plans to return to Montreal.
  • In Avalon, the Conservatives overrode an ongoing nomination race to appoint a candidate who had to resign from a city job over harassment allegations.
  • Two former Conservative MPs are joining a group of traitors citizens heading to the US to try and talk about statehood for Alberta post-independence referendum.
  • Dominic Cardy’s vanity “Canadian Future Party” is sliding into further obscurity.
  • Scott Moe is aiming to remove his province’s industrial carbon price, which is jumping the gun of the election outcome (and starting the race to the bottom).
  • BC has introduced new framework legislation for Indigenous consultation on mining claims…which First Nations leaders say is insufficient.
  • A US physician who moved to Canada and now practices here describes the differences in our systems that are less obvious than just for-pay.

Odds and ends:

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Roundup: Duelling tax cut offers

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Day two of the campaign, and the first full day of campaigning. Mark Carney began in Gander, Newfoundland and Labrador, where he played up the Canadiana and the fact that Gander hosted passengers from aircraft stranded on 9/11 (which became the basis for the musical “Come from Away.” This was part of his appeal to Canadian values in the face of Trump and the trade war, before he jetted off to Halifax. (Day one recap here, and more about the fishers protesting his speech.). Carney also released a second, more earnest ad with Mike Myers, who officially endorsed him in it. Carney also added that he hasn’t spoken to Trump yet, but he suspects Trump is waiting until after the election to call.

Pierre Poilievre was still in the Greater Toronto Area, where he had pledged his own, larger income tax cut, and gave a faux assurance that it would be paid for with “cuts to bureaucracy, consultants, and foreign aid.” (Yeah, that’s not going to get you the money for this kind of a tax cut, it will absolutely disproportionately benefit the wealthy, and you can bet that social programmes will be on the chopping block). He also regaled the crowd with a stupid meme tale about telling a child that income tax is a “punishment for doing well,” rather than the entry fee for civilization. Because Poilievre is fundamentally an anti-government conservative (in spite of having spent his entire life in public office). (Day one recap here).

The NDP started off in Montreal, where he promised to set aside even more public land for rent-controlled homes, but didn’t exactly spell out how this would be different than what the federal government is already doing about leasing public lands (nor did he address the fact that a lot of that “government-owned land” are actually contaminated sites). He also took some jabs at a punching bag in an outdoor gym—because he’s spent the last few weeks trying to burnish a tough-guy image—before the bus went down the 401 to Toronto. (Day one recap here). He’ll spend much of the day there today, before heading to Hamilton later afternoon.

Given the two promises around tax cuts, here are some analyses of what it might mean, once we get more details. Economists, however, are pretty sceptical thus far that the maths are going to work out for these cuts.

The Leadership Debates Commission announced the dates for the two official “consortium” debates as April 16th and 17thin Montreal, French first, then English, each with a single moderator after the complete gong show of the previous two election cycles. There will not be a TVA “face-à-face” debate this time, as they planned to charge the leaders $75,000 each to “offset costs,” and the Liberals balked, so it won’t go ahead. The other campaigns are trying to say Carney was too afraid of a second French debate, but charging the parties to hold it was a very, very bad precedent, and it’s probably for the best that it wasn’t’ allowed to take hold.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian missiles hit a densely-populated part of Sumy, wounding 88 people, while there were further air attacks on Kyiv, wounding one and damaging houses. A Russian cyberattack also hit Ukraine’s state railway service, adding to the chaos of the situation.

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Roundup: Election 2025, Day One

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Around noon on Sunday, prime minister Mark Carney visited Rideau Hall and advised the Governor General to dissolve Parliament for an election. She agreed, signed the proclamation, and the 45th general election was underway. The election will be held on April 28th, making it a short five-week campaign.

Mark Carney spoke afterward, and immediately promised a “Middle Class™ tax cut,” because clearly what’s needed in a time of economic uncertainty, and when we need to ramp up our defence spending and response to the economic predations of Trump, is a tax cut that will disproportionately benefit top income earners. Carney then headed to St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, for his first campaign stop.

Pierre Poilievre got his message out early, and he took a couple of mild jabs at Trump, before doubling down on his usual nonsense about “open border” creating crime (which is completely false), and insisted that his campaign offers hope and change, and insisted that they will “restore” the promise of the country. He then headed off to Toronto for a “Canada First™” rally.

Jagmeet Singh accused the Liberals of letting the country “rot from the inside,” and that he’s about people and not billionaires. (All tens of them in Canada?) From his initial Ottawa launch, he then headed to Montreal for his first stop.

And the Green co-leaders Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault called for unity during the election in order to stand up to Trump and the global oligarchs that are seeking to destroy democracy.

In the background of all of this was an interview that Danielle Smith gave to Breitbart News in the US, where she claims that she told members of the Trump administration to hold off on tariffs in order to help get Poilievre elected, because he would be more in sync with them. This is pretty shocking, if she is indeed telling the truth and not just giving some kind of boast to make herself look good for the Breitbart crowd. Poilievre insists that Trump wants Carney to win because he’ll be a pushover, and I mean, come on. Carney gave his usual points about needing respect from Trump before they’ll talk. Nevertheless, the fact that we have premiers freelancing foreign policy like this is a Very Bad Thing and they need to be reined in.

 

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched 147 drones at several cities across Ukraine overnight Sunday, and killed at least seven. On Saturday, Russian shelling killed three in Pokrovsk. The blaze at Russia’s Krasnodar oil depot has been burning for over five days now.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1903740311689363767

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Roundup: Pre-approved invitations to litigation

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Pierre Poilievre was in Jonquière, Quebec, yesterday, promising that if elected, he would create “pre-approved, shovel-ready zones” across the country for all kinds of major projects that would only need a checklist to be approved. Just like that! Why, nothing could possibly go wrong with such a proposal, right?

In no way has this been thought through, and as Leach points out, this is the kind of approach that lost the Harper government the Northern Gateway approval. Just like there hasn’t been any thought about his Churchill proposal. And look, he’s making stuff up wholesale about Ring of Fire mines, blaming the Trudeau government for decisions taken in the Harper era. Because of course he is.

Meanwhile, Mark Carney had a meeting with Danielle Smith today, and she comically presented him with a list of “demands” with the threat of a national unity crisis if he didn’t kowtow to her. Because that’s “cooperative federalism”! But seriously, it was a separatist manifesto, divorced from reality, because this is Smith we’re talking about, and she depends on her imaginary grievances to maintain power, more within her own party than the province as a whole.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones hit civilian targets in Odesa, as well as in Kropyvnytskyi, where ten people were injured including children. Ukraine’s drone strike on Russia’s strategic bomber airfield in Engels caused a massive explosion as ammunition was ignited. Russia says Ukraine has violated the “ceasefire” with a hit on an oil depot. Zelenskyy is calling for European help in buying more artillery shells. And US intelligence confirms that Ukrainian forces in Kursk are not encircled, proving that Trump is taking his cues from Russian propaganda.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1902834475806990623

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Roundup: Unilateral Arctic plans and foreign aid churlishness

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Pierre Poilievre called a press conference from Iqaluit, yesterday, where he announced his Arctic policy ideas, which include finally building an air force base in the region, doubling the number of Canadian Rangers, and building two more heavy icebreakers, but for the Royal Canadian Navy and not the Coast Guard. Oh, and that he was going to pay for it all by gutting foreign aid. Set aside the fact that the plans for an Arctic base have long been in the works with slow progress, but does the Navy even want icebreaker capability? They didn’t want the slushbreakers—sorry, Arctic Offshore Patrol Ships that the Harper government decided they needed, and here is another Conservative who wants to impose capabilities that they have not asked for, because reasons. Nevertheless, this whole thing set off the premier of Nunavut, who noted there was zero consultation on these policies, and pointed to actual sovereignty-affirming things that governments should be doing for the north that aren’t this kind of performative flexing.

As for Poilievre’s disdain for foreign aid, it’s one-part monkey-see-monkey-do with MAGA and Elon Musk dismantling USAID, but it’s juvenile, provincial, and ignores that foreign aid is soft power that also does thinks like not let Russia and China swoop in and start winning hearts and minds in those countries, which is what Trump opened the door to, and which Poilievre seems keen to follow, justified by a number of lies about the recipients of that aid based on the fact that UNRWA may have had a handful of compromised employees. He doesn’t care about the realities of this aid spending and the projection of soft power, because those recipients can’t vote for him, and he’s playing into tired populist tropes about “taking care of people at home,” even though they actually don’t care about vulnerable people at home, and just want a tax cut instead of actually helping anyone. And again, Poilievre doesn’t care.

If anything, Canada should actually be living up to its previous pledges about increased funding for foreign assistance, particularly because the dismantling of USAID is going to affect programmes that Canada was partnering with them on, and they provided much of the “thought leadership” in the space. Children are going to die of malnutrition, and preventable illness, HIV infections are going to skyrocket, and again, Poilievre doesn’t care because those people can’t vote for him. What a bleak, cursèd timeline we live in right now.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Ukrainian drone attack damaged an industrial facility—possibly an oil refinery—in Russia’s Saratov region. The US’ “freeze” of aid money means that organisations helping investigate Russian war crimes can’t pay staff or continue their work—Trump and Musk just doing Putin’s bidding.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1888916130254725208

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Roundup: Piercing Lantsman’s kayfabe

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Because everything is so stupid, Conservative Twitter got itself all hot and bothered over the weekend because Nathaniel Erskine-Smith had the temerity to break the kayfabe when the Melissa Lantsman was engaging in performative outrage.

Context: This was an event Erskine-Smith held in his riding for Mark Carney, and Lantsman stood outside to say ludicrously stupid things, and Erskine-Smith, who was standing right there, made a good-natured objection, and did so in a way where Lantsman broke—her performative outrage cracked, she smiled and basically admitted it was all bullshit, and then tried to carry on to finish the performance, got her talking points backwards, but she finished the scene. Conservatives, however, were incensed that the fakery was exposed, so they edited the clip, invented the charge that Erskine-Smith was a creep because he touched her shoulder and shook her hand—the most regular things in politics—and *gasp!* suggested they get a drink like a good-natured colleague would. This would not stand.

What’s particularly hilarious about this is that this is just more Conservative cry-bullying (which I have been on the receiving end of), where they pretend to be the wronged party in order to have someone “cancelled,” while they bemoan and wail about so-called “cancel culture” (which has never actually cancelled anyone, especially in a country where the National Post gives them column inches the very next day). Meanwhile, if they think that women like Lantsman are that fragile, perhaps they should start insisting that women not be accompanied outdoors without a male relative escorting them, or that they should start wearing burkas so as not to attract unwanted attention—you know, like the Taliban would say.

It’s all so fake, and this is what they want our political discourse to be.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine downed 50 out of 72 Russian drones launched overnight Saturday. President Zelenskyy replaced the commander of the eastern forces for the third time in a year, as Russia continues to encroach on strategic settlements.

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Roundup: The first Trump 2.0 salvo

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And so it begins. Donald Trump went on this Truth Social to declare that he’s going to impose 25 percent tariffs against Canada until we secure the border and stop letting illegal aliens and fentanyl across, and predictably, everybody lost their gods damned minds.

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1861241979834900615

Justin Trudeau had a call with Trump apparently shortly after, and Dominic LeBlanc and Chrystia Freeland put out a bland, vaguely-reassuring statement, while Trudeau also had to call the premiers of the two largest provinces to calm them down (as they had already been demanding an emergency First Ministers’ meeting about Trump’s return). In amidst this, Jagmeet Singh was also being performative about demanding Trudeau fight, and so on.

It took less than three hours before the first of the Elder Pundits started demanding that we capitulate on a number of files to Trump while, delusionally, insisting that he can be bargained with in good faith. Honest to Zeus, you guys.

Once everyone calms down and breathes into a paper bag for a few minutes, we need to be clear-eyed about this, and one of the most important things to be clear-eyed about is that if Trump does this, that means he raises gas prices in the American Midwest overnight. Maybe we need to let him discover some consequences for his actions instead of capitulating? It might be a novel approach, and we might suffer some collateral damage, but it might be less than we think.

https://bsky.app/profile/josephpolitano.bsky.social/post/3lbsuq6etic26

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia once again launched a massive drone assault, targeting Kharkiv, Odesa, and Kyiv, mostly damaging residential buildings. Russian forces are also rapidly advancing toward Kurakhove.

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Roundup: Who cares about the Speaker’s peril when there are talking points to parrot?

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Because this is sometimes a media criticism blog, I want to point you to a piece that was on The Canadian Press wire this weekend about a potential procedural showdown between the ongoing privilege filibuster and the coming end of the supply cycle, when the Supplementary Estimates will need to be voted on. This could have been a fascinating discussion that focuses on the pressure that will be on Speaker Fergus to get it right—which, to be frank, he did not when he made the ruling that allowed the privilege filibuster to begin, and pretty much every procedural expert I’ve spoken to has said he got the ruling wrong, and even more to the point, even a former Law Clerk of the Commons has said that this shouldn’t be a privilege issue because the powers to demand papers doesn’t extend to turning them over to a third party as is the case here.

But did the CP story touch on this? Hardly at all! There was some vaguely-worded talk about how this showdown could be unprecedented, but doesn’t actually explain the procedure, or the ruling the Speaker would have to make, and instead spends most of the piece both-sidesing the Liberal and Conservative talking points about the filibuster, because that’s what CP does best in their desire to be as scrupulously neutral as possible. Because who needs actual facts or an explanation of parliamentary procedure when you can quote talking points? This is a problem that CP refuses to address for itself, as news outlets across the country become more and more reliant on wire copy as the number of parliamentary bureaux for legacy media outlets continue to shrink.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched a massive missile and drone barrage against Ukraine overnight Saturday, which hit an apartment buildingin Sumy, killing eight. Russia launched a further 120 missiles and 90 drones overnight Sunday, targeting power systems and killing at least seven people, which will likely mean power cuts. The invasion is now 1,000 days old, and Russia is continuing to expend massively, including in lives, for small territorial gains. It also appears that President Biden has finally okayed the use of long-range weapons provided by the Americans to strike targets inside Russia. It appears that a Russian factory has been producing hundreds of decoy drones meant to overwhelm Ukraine’s defences, while certain drones will carry thermobaric warheads. (More on that investigation).

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Roundup: “Identity politics” on both sides

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As the facile analysis of the Trump victory continues across the political talk shows, there was one particular exchange on Power & Politics last night that I felt deserves a bit more attention, because I think it’s important to call bullshit on, which is the discourse around “identity politics.” There has been a lot written about, particularly over the past two days, about how the left has been too scoldy about said “identity politics” and pronouns, and it caused the public to turn against it, which is both ridiculous given the broad-based rage-and-resentment campaign underway, but it also excuses the very identity politics that the Trump campaign (and the current far-right) play into themselves, particularly with race.

Nevertheless, after this diatribe about identity politics, columnist Emilie Nicolas, who was on that panel, objected and pointed in particular to what is happening right now with young men, who are being raised on a diet of Andrew Tate podcasts and their similar ilk, along with some allusions to the gamer-to-fascism pipeline, who are being taught an absolute load of horseshit about alpha men, male dominance, and rank misogyny. And Nicolas pointed out that this is identity politics, and to insist that it’s only coming from the “left” makes this particular kind of identity politics invisible when that’s exactly what it is.

Trying to dismiss anti-racism, anti-misogyny and anti-homophobia/transphobia as “identity politics” that the general population doesn’t care about (as though the general population consists entirely of white men), while racism, misogyny, and white supremacy are given a free pass and not being called “identity politics” when in fact that is at the core of what they are, is actually kind of damning to those who think the “left” needs to cool it. I do get that the whole “scolding” aspect is something that does need to be re-thought as a tactic, but to pretend that “identity politics” is the domain of the left alone is both wrong, and intellectually dishonest in the extreme.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian guided bomb attack hit Zaporizhzhia, killing four, wounding at least 33, destroyed houses and damaged an oncology centre. Energy facilities in the northern Zhytomyr region also suffered damage in a drone attack. President Zelenskyy told a European summit that “peace through strength” is what is needed (which is in part what he is hoping to flatter Trump with), and also said that North Korean forces have suffered casualties when fighting Ukrainian forces in Kursk.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1854554730325787106

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