Roundup: Still nothing to say

Oh, nothing. Just a few more selected tweets as this situation continues. Don’t mind me.

https://twitter.com/Garossino/status/1573514485998161921

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 212:

Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine were subjected to sham “referendums” yesterday, to provide a paper cover that claims these regions want to “overwhelmingly join Russia,” which of course is not true and will not be internationally recognized, because everyone knows it’s a sham. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Ukrainians in these occupied regions to undermine these sham referendums, and to share information about those caught up in said farce. Meanwhile, a UN commission of inquiry on the invasion of Ukraine has found evidence of war crimes committed in Russian-occupied areas, which should surprise no one.

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QP: Freeland steps up to call out Poilievre’s false tax claims

While the prime minister was still at the UN General Assembly, his deputy was present today, so it was hoped we would get a better series of exchanges. Fingers crossed. Poilievre led off with his same talking points about the share of paycheques being devoted to housing, and demanded that “tax hikes” be cancelled. In response, Chrystia Freeland responded by reading a script about the role of the opposition in a Westminster system, but whatever point she was trying to make got lost. Poilievre switched to English to repeat same question, and Freeland noted that since EI premiums were mentioned, she pointed out that when Poilievre was the employment minister, premiums were $1.81, while they will soon be $1.61. Poilievre retorted with combined CPP and EI figures to show that they are higher overall, and Freeland lectured him that EI and CPP are deferred income, they don’t go to general revenue, they are the safety nets for Canadians. Poilievre insisted that the government was trying to raise CPP so its surplus could go to general revenue, and decried inflation and these so-called tax increases. Freeland said that it was irresponsible to talk down the economy, but Canada is better positioned than any country in the world. Poilievre insisted that thirty-year-olds in their parents’ basements would disagree with the rosy assessment of the economic picture, and Freeland pointed out that the government has measures for people in need, while the Conservatives have irresponsible plans, like investing in Bitcoin.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he congratulated Poilievre and gave a shoutout to Alain Rayes before saying that the prime minister should take Roxham Road on his way back to Canada because it is “faster.” Freeland read a response about respecting the rights of asylum seekers, and working with the Americans on border obligations including the Safe Third Country Agreement. Blanchet suggested that when Trudeau returns, he sing his responses before he demanded the Safe Third Country Agreement be suspended and Quebec be given its own immigration powers. Freeland pointed out that Quebec does get to control its immigration levels.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, decrying rising prices, while grocery profits have increased since 2020. Freeland assured him they are ensuring that big businesses pay their fair share, including higher corporate taxes, the pandemic dividend tax for banks and insurance companies, and the new luxury tax. Singh repeated the question in French, trying to introduce the term “greed-flation,” to which Freeland repeated her response.

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QP: Demanding to rescind tax increases for things that aren’t taxes

The first day back, and the prime minister was off at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, while his deputy was in Toronto for the the funeral of former Cabinet minister Bill Graham, leaving the rest of his front bench to deal with Pierre Poilievre’s leadership debut. When he began, Poilievre started in French, complaining that EI and CPP premiums increased, as did the carbon price, and demanded that these “tax increases” be rescinded for “senior and workers.” Randy Boissonnault was chosen to respond, congratulating Poilievre on his victory, before he said that Canadians were about to see two competing visions—the Liberals who care about people and the the Conservatives who tell them that they’re on their own, and raised their affordability package that was just tabled. Poilievre took exception to this, and said the Liberals didn’t care because the share of average Canadians’ paycheques that go to housing going from 32 percent to 50 percent. Boissonnault repeated his points about their affordability measures. Poilievre switched to English to remix both of his previous questions into one, and Karina Gould stood up to assure him they had measures going to families who need them. Poilievre trotted out his talking points about people who can’t leave their parents’ basements, and Ahmed Hussen praised their housing measures, which Poilievre and his party voted against. Poilievre listed the supposed tax increases the government made (which were not actually taxes), and Boissonnault got back up to repeat his lines about the “two competing visions” in English.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he raised the spectre of gun violence in Montreal, demanding federal action. Marco Mendicino have his boilerplate response of his thoughts being with the victims, and said that they have a plan with legislation and more resources for security at the border. Therrien was not mollified and demanded more action, and Mendicino hoped for support for their gun control bill, as it has more resources for police to deal with organised crime.

Jagmeet Singh stood up to pat himself on the back for “forcing” the help more people deal with inflation (as though this government wouldn’t have done most if not all of those measures on their own, with the possible exception of the stopgap measure for dental care to meet the deadline) and rhetorically wondered what took them so long. Boissonnault recited his praise for the government’s affordability measures. Singh switched to French to decry the greed of grocery CEOs and demanded the government force them to “pay their fair share,” to which Boissonnault assured him they were making them pay, and listed the increase to corporate taxes and their “dividends” from the pandemic (which I’m sure is just for banks and insurance companies).

https://twitter.com/mattgurney/status/1572292824028319746

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Roundup: Salivating over magical LNG terminals

With the visit of German chancellor Olaf Scholz to Canada, there has been no shortage of media salivating at the narrative of Canada somehow sending liquified natural gas (LNG) to Europe to displace Russian supply, and they keep going on about it. Power & Politics had an interview with Scholz, and the first third of it was spent with Vassy Kapelos hectoring Scholz about whether he wanted Canadian LNG, and if he told the Quebec government to stop opposing pipelines, and I’m being serious that she actually asked him this, as though he wasn’t going to diplomatically tell her that it wasn’t his place to tell them that (which he did). And while he said sure, Canadian LNG would be great, there is no way that’s going to happen. There is no infrastructure to do so. Building it takes three to five years, and even then, if there is a steady supply (good luck with that, because it’ll drive up costs for product domestically), it’ll take 25 to 30 years to make those investments in that infrastructure pay off, and we’d be well past 2050 then. (I wrote a column on this recently). It would quite literally be investing in a stranded asset. But that won’t stop Canadian media outlets from pounding on this narrative drum, over and over again. You would think that reporters and TV hosts might have done some homework to realize that there is no business case, so you look foolish by pursuing this dead-end line of questioning, but apparently not.

https://twitter.com/AaronWherry/status/1562196541451800576

https://twitter.com/AaronWherry/status/1562198870243028993

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 181:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is vowing of a “powerful response” if Russia attacks the country on its Independence Day, which also will mark six months since the illegal invasion began. And American intelligence is also warning that something may happen, which is why they are urging their nationals leave the country. Russians did conduct air strikes in the Zaporizhzhia region, not far from the nuclear plant, and they have been shelling near Kharkiv in the northeast. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s ambassador to Canada says that they are investigating 28,000 war crimes, including child deaths.

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QP: A personal tale of witnessing injustice

The prime minister was off to Los Angeles for the Summit of the Americas, we had two other leaders present, plus the deputy prime minister, so that was something. Candice Bergen led off, script on her mini-lectern, decrying Canadians skipping meals, saying that they don’t want a “top-up cheque” but want prices to stop rising. (If only the Canadian federal government had the power to control the world price of oil and to stop droughts in food-producing regions). Chrystia Freeland praised her government’s job-centred recovery and the record-low levels of unemployment. Bergen insisted that the government’s fiscal policy was a mess, and raised Bill Morneau’s revisionist concerns, to which Freeland listed the inflation-indexed benefits that families and seniors were getting. Bergen pivoted to rising gun crimes and accused the government of being soft on crime, and Freeland offered a personal story about her mother doing legal aid work for Indigenous clients in Northern Alberta, and she could see first-hand how the justice system treats them, which was why this government was making changes. Luc Berthold took over in French to decry the abolition of mandatory minimums, and Freeland repeated the same story in French. Berthold then pivoted to the cost of living concerns, complaining that their gimmick-laden Supply Day motion was defeated. Freeland wondered why the Conservatives didn’t support their own “concrete” assistance to low-income households.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he insisted that a third of Quebec seniors were losing purchasing power because of rising inflation. Freeland said that she had good news—that OAS was going up by ten percent this summer. Blanchet did not deviate from his question and insisted the same again, and Freeland reminded him that these benefits are already indexed to inflation.

Peter Julian rose for the NDP, and in French, demanded the GST credit and Canada Child Benefit be doubled. Freeland stated that there were targeted measures already going out. Rachel Blaney repeated the question in English with added sanctimony, and Freeland insisted that they looked ahead and set five particular programmes in motion before this summer hits.

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QP: Appealing to the NDP Whip?

While the prime minister was away, none of the other leaders were present either, though the deputy PM was attending virtually. Luc Berthold led off, and he decried Motion 11 on extending sitting hours, and wondered if the NDP were be whipped on the vote (which…isn’t really a question to the government, as much as they’re trying to be clever about there allegedly being a coalition). Kevin Lamoureux insisted this was simply about more hours for debate, which surely nobody could object to. (Note that there are things that can be objected to, but neither side will be reasonable in the discussion). Berthold then listed off some torqued versions of this government’s ethical lapses, and wondered if someone on the other side would say enough was enough, and Lamoureux dismissed this as mere personal attacks. Berthold demanded that the RCMP re-open the investigation into the Aga Khan vacation—never mind that they already concluded that there was no evidence—and Lamoureux dismissed it again as personal attacks instead of focusing on things that matter. James Bezan took over in English to demand an RCMP investigation, and Lamoureux insisted that this was simply character assassination. Bezan tried to pretend he was a prosecutor who had obtained a witness box confession, and Lamoureux deployed the “three leaders ago” quip.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he praised the police action over the weekend with the “bike rally” and how they didn’t need the Emergencies Act, and he wondered if it was necessary at all months ago. Marco Mendicino also praised the police’s actions, and said that the invoked the Emergencies Act at the time because it was needed. Therrien spun a version of events during the occupation that presumed more federal powers than exist, and Mendicino repeated that they needed the Act that time.

Peter Julian rose for the NDP, and in French, and he lamented that federal COVID sickness benefits were expiring, and Karina Gould appeared by video to say that they extended EI sickness benefits, which was not the same thing. Daniel Blaikie took over to add some sanctimony to the question, and demanded the benefits be extended, and Gould listed actions they have taken around sick days (for federally-regulated sectors) and EI modernisation.

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Roundup: Incoherent housing plans

We are now on or about day fifty-eight of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia has declared victory when it comes to their siege of the strategic city of Mariupol, and has ordered its troops not to storm the last pocket of resistance there. But hey, they’ve “liberated” the city by shelling it to rubble, so good job there. It is estimated that some 2000 Ukrainian troops remain on site, spread out in a network of tunnels and bunkers, along with several thousand civilians. Of course, this also means that Russian forces are likely going to simply try and wait out those remaining troops and civilians as they run out of food and supplies, and trap them inside.

Closer to home, Pierre Poilievre has been unveiling more of his housing platform, but…it’s pretty incoherent, in a lot of ways. There isn’t that much financial leverage that the federal government can wield when it comes to ending NIMBYism and seven decades of market incentives for single-family homes that are unsustainable and which only continue to exacerbate the affordability crisis (not to mention the climate crisis). Oh, and Poilievre is defending his own rental property portfolio, citing that he’s providing affordable rental accommodations to two “deserving families.”

The last point on that list is pretty critical—it would undermine central bank independence, and one imagines could actually create a deflationary spiral in the right circumstances that would create a depression, which is precisely what they were avoiding when they engaged in quantitative easing during the pandemic recession. Jennifer Robson has even more concerns about the incoherence of the plan in this thread. Meanwhile, I would also recommend checking out this thread by Mike Moffatt about just how complex the drivers of the housing situation in Ontario is. It’s not just one thing—it’s a lot of moving parts that got us to where we are now.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1517214855572320256

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QP: Bland assurances about Arctic sovereignty

For Thursday, neither the prime minister nor his deputy were present, nor were most of the the other leaders, save one. Luc Berthold led off, with a script but without a mini-lectern, and in French, he worried about the disinformation circulating about the invasion of Ukraine, but wedged this into a question about expelling the Russian ambassador. Anita Anand rose, not to answer but to recognise the presence of Ukraine’s chargé d’affaires in the gallery, which was against the rules—which the Speaker reminded her of—before Anand made a bland statement. Berthold worried about the state of our military’s readiness should Putin carry on, and Anand assured him that of course we are ready and that nothing has been neglected, before she read out what new lethal aid was provided to Ukraine this morning. Raquel Dancho took over in English to again demand to know what meetings she has had to prepare for Russian threats of retaliation. Anand assured her that they were prepared for any eventuality, and mentioned working with American counterparts to modernise NORAD as a priority. Dancho worried that we did not have sufficient military assets in the Arctic, and wanted further reassurances, and Anand repeated her reassurances before saying that we need to be non-provocative and rational in this situation. Berthold took back over to repeat the question about what we are doing about deterrence to keep Russia from invading the Arctic. Anand repeated that we would work with the US, and stated that the Coast Guard would defend us.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and worried that the government’s emergency travel documents for Ukrainian refugees would take too long, and Anand read that what was announced today would reduce red tape and would hasten passage for Ukrainians, and there was no limit to how many were would take in. Normandin stated the need for an emergency airlift operation, and Anand spoke about more measures for these refugees but did not commit to an airlift.

Jagmeet Singh led for the NDP, in person, and demanded more sanctions against more Russian oligarchs, to which Anand, after some hesitation, listed those already under sanction and said that they were working with allies to impose yet more sanctions. Singh repeated the question in French, and Anand repeated her response in French.

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Roundup: A plan to tax the unvaxxed

By all accounts, it sounded like Quebec premier François Legault was spit-balling policy when, at the press conference to announce the province’s new chief public health officer, he proposed that the province impose additional costs on the unvaccinated in the form of some kind of surtax that would be “significant,” meaning more than $100. There were no details, which is kind of a big deal, but you immediately had other political leaders worried about “slippery slopes,” as though we don’t have other sin taxes on things like alcohol and cigarettes which impose their own significant public health burdens, as well as concerns that this will further disenfranchise those who are already marginalised. And fair enough.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1481062196314624000

The concerns about whether this somehow contravenes the Canada Health Act seem to be overblown, as it’s not charging for healthcare services, but other concerns about just how this might be implemented remain, as professors like Jennifer Robson articulate below.

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Roundup: No, an electoral agreement won’t work

Because Doug Ford and his merry band of incompetent murderclowns have decided to make Ontario miserable again with eleventh-hour changes and nonsensical measures (sorry, guys, but I am going to be insufferably bitter about the gyms being closed down again), there is once again talk about how the provincial Liberals and the NDP need to come to some kind of agreement in order to get Ford out. Which is insane.

https://twitter.com/AaronWherry/status/1478063212281085953

https://twitter.com/AaronWherry/status/1478064242985246720

The Liberals and NDP, provincially and federally, are not the same party, don’t have the same positions, and even if they both err on the side of progressivity, and frankly, it’s a major betrayal of local democracy if you’re telling your riding associations not to run candidates because of some cockamamie plan that involves dubious polls or results from an election three-and-a-half years ago with other factors in play which are irrelevant to the current context. Sorry, but no. The opposition parties need to come up with a coherent message and plan to sell to the people of Ontario, and to be steadfast in holding Ford to account rather than letting him get away with his folksy aw-shucks routine. It means the parties need to organise their ground game. It means a proper electoral contest, not a theoretical exercise based on bullshit reasoning.

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