In Alberta, Rachel Notley’s NDP government had a Throne Speech yesterday that promised all manner of action to try to pressure BC’s NDP government when it comes to the Trans Mountain pipeline problem. Notley, however, decided to take some of Jason Kenney’s bluster and make it her own, promising the ability to block oil shipments to BC that they need for their domestic use. The problem? The Trans Mountain pipeline is regulated by the National Energy Board, meaning it’s federal jurisdiction, and that neither province can do anything to block it or affect what it carries. She’s also echoing the comments that the federal government needs to lean harder on BC, never mind that the NEB has quasi-judicial authority on the issue, and the fact that all BC has done to date is announce a study, or that the federal government has repeated “This pipeline will get built.” It’s a bunch of chest-thumping and borrowed demagoguery that ignores the historical context of what Peter Lougheed threatened in the 1980s, and is rank hypocrisy in that they’re threatening unconstitutional action to combat BC’s threatened unconstitutional action. It’s time for everyone to grow up.
Lougheed actually vowed to reduce Alberta's own oil production gradually to 85% of actual capacity — throttle back his own province's economic engine, not shipments thereof. That's some remarkably command-and-control shtuff by today's standards. 2/
— Jason Markusoff (@markusoff) March 9, 2018
4/ Here's audio of the Peter Lougheed "taps" announcement in 1980, by the by. https://t.co/mB46y0gzu1
— Jason Markusoff (@markusoff) March 9, 2018
Perhaps it's time for an explainer on how shipments on TransMountain actually happen. If you want to know more, follow along below. #cdnpoli #ableg
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) March 9, 2018
Currently, the pipeline is allocated between two uses: per NEB, "221,000 bpd is reserved for deliveries to Land Destinations and is allocated according to each shipper’s monthly nominations of crude and petroleum products." 3/
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) March 9, 2018
For the 221k land shipments, there are 7 primary shippers: Imperial Oi and Suncor ship refined products to Kamloops and to Burnaby. Chevron (now Parkland) transports crude petroleum and refined petroleum products. 5/
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) March 9, 2018
Each month, each shipper "nominates" barrels for shipment. They have to prove that they have, "capability and intent to tender and remove its nominated volumes of petroleum type(s)." i.e. they can't just grab capacity without grounds. 7/
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) March 9, 2018
In order to restrict the mix of products on the line, a premier would have to do one of two things:
1) enable tacit or explicit collusion among shippers
2) create an impediment to the supply of certain products in Alberta (ie restrict refinery ops or transfers from them)— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) March 9, 2018
The APMC could potentially have the capability to secure enough barrels to fill the pipeline with crude instead of refined products, but they'd only get a pro-rated share of the pipeline capacity for their barrels. 11/
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) March 9, 2018
The others, Suncor and Imperial would be taking a huge risk to do that with very little gain. As a bonus, though, we could involve another federal quasi-judicial agency! /13
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) March 9, 2018
Finally, and this is important: if you believe that @RachelNotley or @jkenney can restrict flows on the pipeline, so can @jjhorgan. And @PremierScottMoe. It's open season on NEB pipelines and Alberta loses.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) March 9, 2018