Roundup: The Brexit fallout

So, Brexit. If you missed how it all went down, here’s the recap of the evening’s events, a look at the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty regarding an exit from the EU, a look at other countries who may be next, and speculation about how the Queen is faring in the face of this result. There’s a look at the divisions within the UK, and what psychology tells us about feelings toward immigration and how that influenced the referendum vote. And of course, what the Brexit could mean for the Canada-EU trade agreement, seeing as the UK was one of the driving forces behind this agreement. The results of that referendum seem to have made Quebec sovereigntists chippy about the 50-percent-plus-one threshold, while Jason Kenney’s tweets once the results were announced raised a number of eyebrows. The Prime Minister, however, assures us that our economy is strong enough to be able to withstand the market storms triggered by this event. (And do check out Maclean’s full package of excellent Brexit pieces here).

And then there’s the reaction. Doug Saunders notes that this is the first time that a far-right movement and its xenophobia has won a majority vote in a Western Nation, while Scott Gilmore notes that the Brexit could take a multitude of different forms. Andrew Coyne takes the events as a cautionary tale of countries engaging in self-harm. Paul Wells writes about the case that the EU needs to make for itself in the face of referenda like these, while Andrew MacDougall notes that this referendum, along with the Trump phenomenon in the states, is showing the power of demagoguery over fact and expert advice, which is probably the scariest part of this whole sad and sordid affair.

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Roundup: The quest for a less arbitrary majority

The electoral reform committee met for the first time yesterday and got all of its housekeeping details out of the way – “electing” Francis Scarpaleggia as the chair (though it was unopposed) and naming Scott Reid and Nathan Cullen as the deputies, allocating clerks and resources, and starting to figure out when the meetings will begin, hearing from the outgoing Chief Electoral Officer to start with. But with all of this going on, it bears reminding what we are doing with this whole “reform” endeavour in the first place, much of which has to do with the complaints that parties that don’t get a majority of the votes wield a majority of the power. Joseph Heath writes a great piece debunking this kind of thinking that everyone should read, because it is a reminder that trying to find a “true majority” becomes a futile quest – there is enough arbitrariness in any system that there can never be an actual majority, but it is simply more naked under First-Past-the-Post. Changing the system just moves the goalposts in different ways – indeed, proportional systems just removes the possibilities of majority government with the horse-trading of coalitions, which brings yet more arbitrariness into the system. So good luck, committee members, with your stated goals for the system you wish to choose when they are built upon foundations of sand.

Meanwhile, as our friends in the media write yet more stories about what the committee will be looking at, can I please offer the reminder about doing some actual research when it comes to systems like ranked ballots. Consistently our media colleagues have repeated the grossly distorted line that ranked ballots somehow “increase the disparities of first-past-the-post.” We’ve seen this over and over again, especially as the NDP and their Broadbent Institute brethren have picked it up as a talking point. No.

This supposed fact comes from a single analysis done by CBC’s Eric Grenier using a single poll done around the time of the election regarding second choices. That’s it. It doesn’t detail how the system actually works and what it is designed to do, which is to eliminate tactical voting, and yet we’ve never heard that description used once. Oh, wait – I used it in a sidebar I researched for the Ottawa Citizen. But that’s it. It would be nice if other journalists writing about this file could actually go and do a bit of research on their own rather than repeating the talking points provided to them by partisans, because we might get a better understanding of what is actually up for debate.

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Roundup: Big tent divisions

There was an interesting and perhaps somewhat revealing interview in The Hill Times yesterday where openly gay MP Rob Oliphant let it be known that despite the outward acceptance of LGBT issues in the Liberal Party, it is not a universally held opinion, and that there are still undercurrents of the “love the sinner, hate the sin” attitude that still reside within some of its members. As an example, MP John McKay – a noted evangelical Christian – was quoted as saying that his feelings about same-sex marriage haven’t changed, even though he considers the issue settled. It’s that line between tolerance and acceptance, and Oliphant rather adroitly points out that the line is still there within his own caucus. It also seems to me to be a kind of oblique explanation for why the government wound up taking such a tough line on the assisted dying bill – to the point that they would rather see it go back to the Supreme Court of Canada in order to suffer a defeat and be “forced” to deal with the issue as it was originally laid out in the Carter decision rather than to go along with it on their own. There are other lines within the party where Trudeau has forced the issue with his candidates and caucus, such as abortion (McKay being an opponent, as was Lawrence MacAulay until Trudeau’s edict), and it would seem that the same line is being threaded with the assisted dying issue. The difference is that with this one, Trudeau did not force the issue with his caucus and insist that this is a Charter issue that they will be whipped on (never mind that the Carter decision very clearly stated that yes, this is a Charter issue and this is why the current law is not adequately ensuring access for these Canadians with grievous and irremediable suffering). And it did seem that it was originally going to be the case where this was going to be a whipped vote on Charter lines, but he backed away from that under some public pressure from the media. How much of that was from push-back from the caucus and the broader party membership remains to be seen, but it would seem that the attempt to create the broadest possible tent is forcing some uncomfortable compromises, and in this case, Trudeau made the calculation that this wasn’t a battle he was willing to fight within his own base, never mind that he had the Charter argument right there. Instead, we are left with an inadequate law that will be challenged again (and one hopes not at the expense of another suffering family), and the reminder that while the public face of the Liberal Party is one of progressivity, there remains a social conservative undercurrent of the party that the leader’s declarations haven’t entirely done away with.

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Roundup: Parliament’s ongoing abdication

After a day of impassioned and indeed blistering speeches, Bill C-14 has passed the Senate without its key amendment that would remove the “foreseeable death” restriction, and has received Royal Assent, making it law, but it wasn’t done without more damage done to our parliamentary system. No, I’m not one of those pearl-clutchers who saw the Senate doing its job in standing up against unconstitutional legislation as being some kind of anathema or affront to the democratically elected Commons – indeed, anyone who listened to Senator Serge Joyal’s speech yesterday about all of the times that the elected majority in the Commons used their powers to strip away people’s rights should see that’s why simply hand-waving about “democracy” can’t be an argument that holds water – but rather, it was the burden that is being placed on the Supreme Court of Canada and those who must challenge this legislation that is the affront. The prevailing sentiment in the chamber became “this is going to be challenged, and we did as much as we can so now it’s up to the Supreme Court,” when no, the Senate could have dug in their heels and used the powers available to them under the constitution and threaten to defeat the bill outright because of the grave doubts about its constitutionality if the government didn’t back down. Joyal tried to move an amendment that would restore the previous amendment with a proviso that it be suspended for up to two years until the Supreme Court could weigh in on its constitutionality, which was a compromise that I remain uncomfortable with because I don’t like the fact that we are increasingly demanding that the Supreme Court weigh in on bills as though legislating were a game of “Mother May I?” I was almost convinced, however, by the fact that doing it this way would be at the government’s expense rather than at the expense of a family with a suffering member who would need to begin the legal challenge process all over again – something that some senators deemed to be an immoral action. It bothers me a great deal that this is becoming the new normal in our politics – that we are increasingly becoming dependent upon the courts to deal with matters of evolving public policy because MPs – and indeed senators – lack the testicular/ovarian fortitude to actually deal with tough issues.

To that end, I’m also extremely disappointed that you had senators who said that they did their job in warning the government about the fact that the bill was unconstitutional, and that the government will have to answer to the people for it. Except it’s not the Senate’s job to “warn” – it’s their job to protect minorities and the constitution, which they did not end up doing today. And “answering to the people” is precisely why the government has been so forcefully timid in what they were going to allow under this bill. “This is just the first step,” they kept insisting, but to be perfectly frank, I don’t believe them. The bill mandates that they must have a report within two years on things like advanced directives, mature minors and the mentally ill, but if you think they’re going to do something that report other than refusing to touch it with a bargepole, well, you’re a far more optimistic person than I. No, what happened today was a further abdication by parliamentarians in both chambers of doing their jobs, and forcing more of it onto the courts (and at the cost of the individuals who will be forced to bring the challenges). It’s disgraceful.

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Roundup: A test of bicameral wills?

Whether through stubbornness or pique, the House of Commons voted to adopt nearly all of the amendments the Senate proposed to Bill C-14, with the exception of the biggest and most important one – the one which would eliminate the requirement of a “reasonably foreseeable” death before someone could be granted medical assistance in dying. And then, the Commons more or less announced that tomorrow will be their last sitting day before they rise for the summer, essentially daring the Senate to return a bill to a chamber that has gone home (well, they are supposed to come back on the 29th for Obama’s address), and leaving the spectre of there being no law in place, which has all manner of medical community stakeholders concerned (never mind that the framework of the Supreme Court of Canada’s Carter decision is in place and would ensure that nobody would be charged for providing the service). It’s a little more ballsy than I would have given the Liberals credit for a few weeks ago, particularly before I saw the background paper that Jody Wilson-Raybould released with her…questionable justification for drafting the law the way it was. Now comes the difficult part – will the Senate stick to their guns and insist that the amendments to eliminate “reasonably foreseeable” be maintained if the bill is to remain constitutional, or will they back down because they’ve made their point and the Commons is the elected chamber?

This is the part where I chime in with a few reminders that this is the reason why our Senate exists the way it does – it enjoys institutional independence and cannot be threatened by the Commons so that they can push back on bills they find unconstitutional, particularly a controversial one like this, where MPs are proving themselves to be timid in the face of a Supreme Court of Canada decision that lays out what they deem to be an appropriate constitutional reading of the issue – something the government is basically flouting in an attempt to push back on this bit of social evolution for as long as possible. And as I’ve stated before, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that the Commons is waiting for the Senate to “force” them to advance things. Will it turn into a ping-pong between the chambers? Not for much longer, I would say, but it is going to depend on who blinks. If the Senate does dig in its heels on this and insist that doing otherwise would be to let an unconstitutional bill pass, then there is every reason to suspect the government take the “forced into this” option and let the Senate be the punching bag when religious and disability groups complain. There are people suggesting that the Supreme Court should break the impasse, which I would loudly denounce because it’s the very last thing we need. It’s not their job, and it would signal a complete abdication of the rights of Parliament and Responsible Government that our predecessors fought long and hard for. (Also, stop demanding these bills be referred to the Court – legislating is not a game of “Mother May I?”). This whole exercise is why the Senate exists. Let’s let them do their jobs.

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QP: A (mostly) serious, grown-up day

There we no major leaders present for Question Period yet again, and with an increasing number of empty desks, the time of year is getting increasingly obvious. After an emotional tribute by Nathan Cullen to UK MP Jo Cox, who was murdered in her home riding earlier today, there was a moment of silence in the Commons. Jason Kenney started off, demanding that ISIS be considered a genocide. Stéphane Dion assured him that because of the UN report on genocidal activities, they were asking the UN Security Council to make a declaration. Kenney insisted that Dion was late to the party and named off other affected local populations, and Dion reminded him that Canada’s policy was the same as our allies and we were taking the lead in getting the Security Council to Act and it was why we tripled our contribution to the allied forces in the region. A third round from Kenney got the same answer. Michelle Rempel was up next, and demanded action on resettling Yazidis to Canada. John McCallum noted that several families were on the way to Winnipeg in a few weeks under private sponsorship, and noted that the Immigration Committee had just adopted a motion to study it. Rempel quoted the act that lets McCallum take action immediately, and he reminded her that the situation was more complicated than that. Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet led off for the NDP, demanding parliamentary oversight for weapons exports. Dion stated that he controls export permits and does so with rigour and transparency. Boutin-Sweet then demanded a public inquiry into Afghan detainees, and John McKay listed off past and ongoing investigations. Murray Rankin was up next, and demanded that parliament pass Bill C-14 as amended. Jody Wilson-Raybould insisted that the bill as tabled was already constitutional and that it was the right approach. Rankin demanded the bill be referred to the Supreme Court, but Wilson-Raybould was not moved.

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Roundup: Modest changes suggested

When its release was announced, I approached it with trepidation – based on the discussions to date, it was bound to be a horror show. Surprisingly, however, the report on how to make the House of Commons more “family friendly” was less ambitious than it could have been – so far, at least. There were many issues left unresolved for the future, and I’m sure that they plan to address some of those issues in a future report, which could indeed be that report that I’m dreading. Overall, however, they decided against the four-day workweek, and haven’t done anything particularly ridiculous like electronic voting or Skyping into committee meetings. Recommendations did include:

  • Maintaining the motion to keep most votes after QP, but not changing the Standing Orders so as to keep flexibility in the system
  • Not holding votes after Thursday QP so as to let MPs be flexible with travel arrangements
  • Moving the date up for deciding on next year’s calendar for better planning
  • Having House Administration provide flexible childcare options at the Members’ own hourly cost
  • Letting MPs’ families have access to their calendars
  • Better flexibility with the shuttle bus service on the Hill
  • Looking at amending the travel point system with regard to families.

While the worst of the previously discussed options were not recommended going forward, and some of the more nonsensical issues like decorum in the Chamber (which has to do with family friendliness how?) had no recommendations, I still think that some of these recommendations have problems. In particular, demanding that House Administration provide childcare options is an issue because uncertainty of usage is costly – do you have childcare workers essentially on standby? How does that work for them, exactly? As well, I find the demand that the Commons provide this service to be a bit rich because these MPs should be able to find solutions on their own. After all, they make $170,000 base salary per year – they can afford to find their own childcare options, whether it’s a nanny or whatnot. The recommendation around travel points is also a little unsettling because it amounts to reducing the transparency around travel so as not to discourage family members from travelling to Ottawa by opening themselves up to criticism. While I do think that we have a problem with petty, cheap outrage when it comes to reporting on MPs’ expenses, I also think that we should use the opportunity to have a discussion with Canadians about the effect of travel on MPs and their families rather than just shaming them without any pushback. After all, we should address these issues rather than just letting the cheap outrage narrative carry the day.

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QP: Applauding and chiding Sweden

Despite it being caucus day, none of the major leaders were present in the Commons today, and I find myself at a loss as to why that would be the case. That left Denis Lebel to lead off, wondering if an announcement on softwood lumber was waiting for President Obama’s visit. David Lametti responded with the usual assurances that they are working hard on the file. After another round of the same, Jason Kenney stood up to attempt to shame the government over their decision to vote against their motion on declaring ISIS a genocide. Stéphane Dion noted that Sweden’s parliament defeated a similar irresponsible motion. Kenney tried again, and third time, but Dion wouldn’t bite, instead reading what a responsible motion would look like. Peter Julian led off for the NDP, decrying the delay in the court case between KPMG and the CRA — not that it’s actually the administrative responsibility of the government. Diane Lebouthillier noted that sometimes there are delays in getting evidence, and stated that the CRA is closing in on tax cheats. Julian asked again in English, got the same answer, and then Hélène Laverdière asked about a report on Afghan detainees, demanding a public inquiry. Harjit Sajjan responded that they take human rights seriously, and they would take any new allegations seriously. Laverdière demanded a public inquiry, but Sajjan wouldn’t bite.

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QP: Politicizing genocide

The benches were nearly full, and all of the leaders were present for today’s exercise in accountability. Rona Ambrose, mini-lectern on neighbouring desk, led off by demanding that the government was “shameful” in not declaring ISIS to be a genocide. Justin Trudeau strongly condemned the actions of ISIS, praised our efforts, and noted that they asked the international authorities to weigh on rather than politicians. Ambrose pressed, Trudeau reiterated that they wouldn’t trivialise the word “genocide” by using it inappropriately. Ambrose tried again in French, and Trudeau repeated his point about not making petty points with this determination. Ambrose moved to the plight of Yazidi girls and asking for them to be brought to Canada. Trudeau noted that they use the UN determination of most needy. Ambrose insisted that they weren’t refugees but displaced people, and the Conservatives hollered as Trudeau noted that the previous government diminished the capacity to bring people to Canada. Thomas Mulcair was up next, and lamented the court battle from a veterans group, and Trudeau insisted that they were making changes to help veterans. After another round in French, Mulcair moved onto marijuana decriminalisation, and Trudeau reminded him that decriminalisation won’t stop street gangs. Mulcair repeated the question in English, and got the same answer.

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QP: A moment for Orlando

Things got off today with a few statements of condolence and shock around the attack on a gay nightclub in Orlando over the weekend, and a moment of silence in the House of Commons. Neither Rona Ambrose nor Justin Trudeau were present today, Trudeau meeting with the chief and youth delegates from Attawapiskat.

Denis Lebel led off by asking about the terror attack in Orlando and the execution of hostage Robert Hall in the Philippines. Ralph Goodale responded with condolences and assurances that there were no threats to Canadians. Lebel then demanded an electoral reform referendum, to which Maryam Monsef called on all parliamentarians to help the committee do their work. Lebel pivoted again, and asked about a carbon tax. Jonathan Wilkinson assured him that they were focused on growing the economy in an environmentally sustainable way. Andrew Scheer took a crack at that question in English, terming a carbon price an “Ottawa knows best” approach, and Wilkinson gave the same answer. Scheer then accused the Liberals of charging admission for an electoral reform town hall, and Monsef said that they all members were supposed to follow the rules around these town halls. Thomas Mulcair was up next, and raised their opposition day motion topic of marijuana decriminalisation for simple possession. Jody Wilson-Raybould noted that they can’t just decriminalise without ensuring that children could not access it. Mulcair gave it another go in English, got the same same answer, and then he pivoted to take on the scourge of bank fees. François-Philippe Champagne reminded him that the government doesn’t regulate the day-to-day operations of banks. Mulcair asked again in French, and got much the same answer.

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