Roundup: Johnston’s classified last word

In what appears to be a growing habit of waiting until the prime minister is out of the country, His Excellency David Johnston turned in the final version of his report last night, stating that this was all classified material added to the confidential annex to his previous report, and that the public title page was updated, and with that, he’s not answering any more questions as he is no longer Special Rapporteur. You can pretty much imagine him giving the finger as he did so, considering what he was subjected to for stepping up (though I will reiterate the point that Philippe Lagassé correctly makes in saying that former Governors General should not be seen or heard). The Privy Council Office responded publicly that they received it, and thanked him for his service.

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As this was happening, NSIRA put out a public statement saying that they’re going through Johnston’s findings in the confidential version of his report, but said that certain Cabinet confidences were not being disclosed to them, and that only a limited number of documents were handed over, and if they are to examine things, they and NSICOP need to see everything, which is fair enough. Given that Trudeau had waived Cabinet confidences for Johnston, I suspect this is more the work of the civil servants and their obsessive desire for secrecy, but it is a bit curious that NSIRA did call the government out so publicly like that, and once again, Trudeau pretty much needs to be shamed into doing something that should have been a matter of course.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Despite reclaiming another village in the southeast, Ukraine admits that not a lot has changed along the southern front just yet. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did visit with troops along the eastern front, and presented medals to those on the front lines. Meanwhile, the Russia/Wagner Group infighting has improved Ukrainian morale along the front lines.

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1673301190753550341

As for the aborted mutiny/attempted coup, here are four things we do know about the outcome, and four things we don’t. In the meantime, the memes are just getting started, and there are some pretty good ones.

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QP: A few last kicks at David Johnston

While the prime minister was in town, he was not at QP, though his deputy was. Most of the other leaders were also present, for what that’s worth. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, accusing the prime minister of letting China interfere in two elections on his behalf, slandered David Johnston, and with Johnston’s resignation, he said that the Conservatives were willing to work with other parties on a public inquiry and demanded one be called. Dominic LeBlanc said that he appreciates the desire to work collaboratively, that a public inquiry was always an option, and that Johnston’s advice was that it would be difficult because of national security matters, but wanted opposition input on a commissioner, the timeline, and terms of reference. Poilievre pivoted to the rising cost of housing, blamed the prime minister, and demanded a balanced budget (as though there was a correlation between the two). Chrystia Freeland noted that while the country was burning and the government was trying to build a green economy, the Conservatives were block action. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his same nonsense-laden question, and Freeland noted the OECD projections about our strong economic growth before repeating her point about partisan games over a green economy. Poilievre cited the IMF’s concerns about the possibility of a major mortgage default in Canada, and again demanded a balanced budget. Freeland cited IMF praise for Canada and criticised the appalling behaviour of Conservatives blocking budget measures. Poilievre raised a CBC story about the state of student housing, to which Freeland pointed out that the Conservatives were blocking measures to punish Russia for their invasion of Ukraine.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, praised David Johnston for stepping down, and demanded a public inquiry with the commissioner chosen by the House (which is a bad thing) and that it be wide-ranging. LeBlanc said that he looked forward to working with opposition parties on next steps in a responsible manner. Therrien demanded a full public inquiry no matter what, and LeBlanc insisted it was not off the table but there were a lot of things that could not be made public.

Jagmeet Singh worried about mortgage increase and wanted advice for how people could cope. Freeland thanked him for the question, and praised their tax-free first home savings account and the housing accelerator fund. Singh said that doesn’t help a family now and repeated the question in French, with a Quebec figure instead of a Toronto one, and Freeland repeated her response.

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Roundup: LeBlanc wants the opposition to put up

In the wake of David Johnston’s resignation (and because it happened on a Friday evening when the prime minister was out of the country, we are counting this as being done with spite), Dominic LeBlanc held a press conference on Saturday to try and turn the tables. Yes, they will consider a public inquiry, but the opposition parties need to get together to determine a commissioner, a timeline, and terms of reference, and godspeed to them in doing so. The theory is that the opposition wanted to be in this so badly, and they blew up the last process, so now they need to show up and do the work. I’m…dubious. I mean, I get that he wants to make the opposition leaders eat their words, and it may yet happen, but I’m not a fan of the government just taking their hands entirely off the wheel here because the Inquiries Act determines that this is a government process, and turning over these decisions is laundering the accountability for them, which is always a very bad thing.

Pierre Poilievre said on Sunday that he would be willing to work with the Bloc and the NDP on doing said work, in order to ensure that a commissioner is “independent and unbiased,” but good luck finding someone who is acceptable to everyone, and who is willing to take on the job, considering how much the opposition parties have fouled the well with the spate of character assassination and willingness to outright lie in bad faith about everything in order to score points. (Note that the government is not blameless in that they never should have picked Johnston in the first place, and should have taken more responsibility around the decision of whether or not to hold an inquiry at all instead of outsourcing the credibility responsibility). I expect these negotiations to drag on, and for the government to find the eventual outcome to be so poisonous as to reject them outright, because we are not dealing with serious people who act in good faith any longer.

Meanwhile, Andrew Scheer continues to be the klassy parliamentarian he has always proved himself to be. I would say it’s unbelievable, but sadly, this is who he is, and it’s all too believable.

Ukraine Dispatch:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seems to have indicated that the counter-offensive has begun, but offers no details at this particular time, while the Russians counter with disinformation. Ukrainian forces did report recapturing a south-eastern village on Sunday, with reports that Russian forces opened fire on a boat carrying civilians evacuating from flooded areas. Ukrainian forces also advanced some 1400 metres near Bakhmut. Also over the weekend, Russian strikes killed three in Odessa, and killed and wounded others attacking Kharkiv.

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Roundup: Exit David Johnston

Around 5.30 PM on a Friday evening, the Rt. Hon. David Johnston tendered his resignation as the special rapporteur on foreign interference, citing that the political firestorm around him has reached a point where his job of trying to restore confidence in our electoral system is now impossible, and while he does not counsel a public inquiry, he did urge consultation on choosing a replacement, for what it’s worth. Of course, what this really means is that instead of doing the work of the actual process part of this issue, sorting out what happened in the senior levels of bureaucracy and how to fix it going forward, we now get to spend the next six months fighting over a name that will be acceptable to all parties, whether it’s to continue the existing process or a public inquiry like everyone thinks they want.

In response, the Conservatives crowed and declared that this “proves” that Johnston was flawed from the start, and that his determination that we don’t need a public inquiry was also wrong, so launch a public inquiry, with a lot of Trudeau Foundation conspiracy theories thrown in for good measure. The Bloc were insisting that the head of an inquiry be chosen by Parliament (which is wrong and insane), while the NDP were declaring victory and patting themselves on the back because Johnston, in their estimation, heeded their motion to resign, never mind that he said nothing about that in his resignation letter, and repudiated their performance while at committee. (Peter Julian insisted that by his action of resigning, he took the NDP’s position, which is the most self-aggrandising bullshit this side of Pierre Poilievre). But the underlying notion that Parliament choose the head of an inquiry is both contrary to the law, which clearly states that the head of an inquiry is a Governor-in-Council appointment, and it also launders accountability going forward, which of course MPs can’t get their heads around because almost none of them understands that their role is about holding government to account.

None of this solves the underlying problem that a public inquiry is not magic. Everyone demanding one seems to think it can be wrapped up in the space of a few months, and that can be broad enough in scope to fully understand how deep Chinese infiltration goes into our country, while also providing concrete recommendations for protecting the next election. That’s not going to happen in a few months—that kind of scoping takes years, and is not going to get to the fundamental issue here, which is that this is ultimately a process story about the machinery of government, dealing with classified information, and that a public inquiry can’t hear most of it. That is, if they can find someone to head it who meets everyone’s satisfaction and who is willing to put themselves through the character assassination that will follow. This is one giant mess, and there’s more than enough blame to go around to absolutely everyone, and it’s not going to get any better.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian authorities claim that they have repelled a Ukrainian advance into Zaporizhzhia, and inflicted heavy casualties, but there is no confirmation of these claims. Meanwhile, more Ukrainians are being evacuated from flooded homes after Russia destroyed the dam on the Dnipro river.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1667133462787047425?s=61&t=OQl-ixPj-I_27b0NFGeMZg

https://twitter.com/kyivpost/status/1667094711994052609?s=61&t=OQl-ixPj-I_27b0NFGeMZg

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Roundup: Empty threats to sit into the summer

Because this whole thing is nothing but really bad theatre, Pierre Poilievre went back before the microphones yesterday morning, declared victory from his fauxlibuster that didn’t accomplish a single gods damned thing, and then said that he was prepared to sit through the summer to make sure that the he got his budget demands. But that was another empty threat, because he doesn’t have the votes to block anything.

And lo, after Question Period, the budget bill passed as it was expected to, and is off to the Senate. Poilievre says his senators will try to stall or stop the bill there, but again, they don’t have anywhere near enough votes for that to make a difference, even if they do have a few more procedural opportunities to slow it down a little. Of course, this is a government bill so the Leader of the Government in the Senate can attempt time allocation if he thinks he has the votes to pull it off (and he probably does), so the delays will likely be fairly minimal.

This being said, the Government House Leader also said that he won’t let the House rise for the summer until they pass his motion to make hybrid sittings permanent, which is an abomination that is going to hasten the decline of our already weakened Parliament. (And yes, I have a full column on this coming out later today).

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1666830949420609537

Ukraine Dispatch:

While evacuations are taking place in Kherson as a result of the flood caused by the breached dam, Russians are shelling the area, including evacuation hotspots, because of course they are. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the area to see the flood devastation first-hand. Russians launched another overnight air attack, killing one person in Uman in the Cherkasy region.

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QP: What about the sky in New York?

While the prime minister was on the Hill earlier for the Pride flag raising, he was not in the Chamber for QP, nor was his deputy, or most of the other leaders. Melissa Lantsman led off worrying about the Bank of Canada raising interest rates, and blaming the prime minister for it, and demanded to know what the Department of Finance figure show about how much mortgages will go up as a result. Terry Beech pointed out the strength of the economy, that we have lower inflation and interest rates than comparator countries, and that we can get through global inflation by working together. Lantsman demanded to know how many people would lose their homes because of rising interest rates. Beech reiterated that the Conservative only want to cut instead of help people. Lantsman then pivoted to news that David Johnston fired Navigator and state that they had also been hired by Han Dong, and demanded to know what the hell is going on. Marco Mendicino got up do praise Johnston and demand that Pierre Poilievre take the security briefing. Gérard Deltell got up next to worry about Quebec families who may not be able to keep their homes because of rising interest rates, and demanded a balanced budget. Rachel Bendayan noted that Poilievre talked for hours last night and said nothing about an economic plan. Deltell insisted that they had a plan, and again demanded a balanced budget, to which Bendayan said they found a balance of helping people in need while being fiscally responsible. 

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and wanted agreement that hydrocarbons cause forest fires. Steven Guilbeault said there was an undeniable link between them, and that they would support the Bloc’s Supply Day motion. Blanchet demanded the government end all direct or indirect funding to oil companies and to send that money to provinces instead, and Guilbeault said that they can walk and chew gum at the same time, and that they are phasing out subsidies while investing.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, worrying about the air quality in New York and that climate change has no borders and demanded action from this government. Guilbeault reminded him they are eliminating subsidies and have been commended as an example to follow. Boulerice railed about Trans Mountain and water bombers not being built in Canada, and demanded investments in renewable energy. Guilbeault reminded him that they already are.

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Roundup: The “filibuster” that wasn’t

A particular level of self-aggrandisement seems to be taking hold in the Leader of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, as he describes things that are not reflective of reality. Yesterday morning, he summoned the media to a speech he delivered to caucus—something that is not uncommon for the last caucus meeting before the summer break, but we are still two weeks away from that. There, he promised that he was going to rise in the House of Commons at 7 PM and begin a filibuster of the budget bill, and that he wouldn’t stop until the government backed down and acceded to his demands.

Except it was all bullshit.

There wasn’t going to be a filibuster. The House had already passed a programming motion, thanks to the NDP, that laid out just how many hours left of debate there were before the final debate, and Poilievre couldn’t just talk and talk past he expiry of that clock. It was already set in stone. So, after another attempted abuse of remote voting as a procedural tactic (which the Deputy Speaker lost all patience with), Poilievre got up to give his five hours of allotted time. But again, this isn’t actually a filibuster because the leader of the opposition gets unlimited speaking time to certain items on the Order Paper, and this was one of them. He wasn’t filibustering anything. He was showboating.

While Conservatives flooded social media with effusive praise about how he was standing up for defenceless Canadians against the predations of the government, and they kept praising how long he was speaking, he wasn’t actually accomplishing anything other than playing to his own backbenches. It’s not like anyone other than a few shut-ins and reporters who drew the short straw were watching. He didn’t stop the budget bill, because it was already the subject of a programming motion. He just talked for the sake of it, and was even finished before midnight hit, when the time would have expired automatically. There was nothing heroic about this action, and it accomplished exactly nothing at all.

https://twitter.com/a_picazo/status/1666653154694266880

Ukraine Dispatch:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is calling for international assistance in dealing with the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, as they continue to evacuate people from floods, and local authorities rush things like drinking water to the affected area. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have gained more ground around Bakhmut, but insist that this is not part of any ongoing spring offensive.

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1666417873776959489

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QP: Blaming the wrong things for the rate hike

Another day of smoke blanketing the nation’s capital, and another day of all of the leaders being present in the Chamber for Question Period. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, decrying the Bank of Canada’s rate increase, blaming deficits for fuelling inflation (which is, of course, economically illiterate). Justin Trudeau says that he has heard from Canadians about their concerns over cost of living, and while the Bank of Canada does their work, the government is doing non-inflationary work to help Canadians like the grocery rebate and dental care. Poilievre misquoted the governor of the Bank of Canada about deficits—which he said nothing at all about—and Trudeau repeated that they are helping Canadians in a non-inflationary way. Poilievre switched to English to call the rate hike a “sucker punch,” and gave a series of misquotes before demanding to know how much average mortgage payments would go up over three years. Trudeau repeated his line about the Bank of Canada doing their job while the government does their, and that austerity is not the answer. Poilievre insisted that Canadians are feeling austerity in their households while the government was rolling in cash, worrying about household insolvencies. Trudeau insisted that Poilievre wants to do less for Canadians who need it, while the government supports people in targeted, non-inflationary ways. Poilievre quoted John Manley to denounce the government’s spending, to which Trudeau gave a paean about dental care, which the Conservatives voted against.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and worried that Erin O’Toole’s testimony contradicted things in David Johnston’s report, and because it was incomplete, Johnston needed to go. (Not sure the logic flows there). Trudeau noted that Blanchet had the opportunity to read the full, classified briefing, but he refuses to. Blanchet said that he refuses to see in secret what everyone should see (which is not how intelligence works), and demanded a public inquiry. Trudeau repeated that Blanchet was abandoning his responsibility to Canadians in refusing to see the classified information. 

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and in French, noted that it was Clean Air Day, with all of the smoke outside, and demanded the government immediately save the environment. Trudeau noted the irony of the day, and that it will likely get worse in years to come because the Conservatives are still debating on whether to act on climate change instead of how to act. Singh repeated the question in English, and this time, Trudeau patted himself on the back for the work the government has done.

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Roundup: Johnston’s day at committee

As expected, David Johnston’s testimony at the Procedure and House Affairs committee was largely a three-hour exercise in partisan showboating, most especially typified by the fact that Jagmeet Singh decided to make a personal appearance at committee so that he could get clips of himself haranguing Johnston, like he tried to do with Galen Weston (and looking like a fool for the most part considering he made the big song and dance about getting thousands of questions from Canadians and asking none of them). In fact, there were almost no actual questions on foreign interference over those three hours, because of course there weren’t.

Once again, Johnstone disputed the claims that he is biased, or in any number of conflicts of interest, and further made the point that he believes the vote in the House of Commons about him was based on false information. (Also, the House of Commons has been known on several occasions to hold these votes on risible matters, especially if they think they can embarrass the government, while the only votes that really matter are confidence ones, and that’s not going to happen). He said that he didn’t reach out to MP Han Dong before he cleared him in the report, in part because of Dong’s lawsuit and because he read intelligence that countered what had been reported. (I’m also not sure why that would have been necessary if the point of the exercise was to review the intelligence). He also made it clear he didn’t see every single document, because that would be impossible, but that the intelligence services were entirely forthcoming.

One of the things we ultimately need to grapple with in this story, which media outlets are incapable of doing, is that this is a process story. It’s almost entirely a machinery of government issue in terms of intelligence dissemination and consumption, and that’s unsexy and difficult to explain, so instead, the focus remains on Johnston himself, and making details about what the government did and didn’t know as lurid as possible, helped along by the fact that the leaker(s) is shaping the narrative in a particular way, using draft documents that contained items not found in the final documents that were pushed up the chain, and there is almost certainly intention behind that, which again, there has been absolutely no self-reflection around on the part of the media organisations doing the reporting. Instead of stopping to ask if they’ve been played, they rationalise and justify. And because this is a process stories, and mainstream outlets are allergic to those, this whole affair just spins further into both-sidesing the meathead partisanship on display.

Ukraine Dispatch:

With the explosion at the Kakhovka Dam, there is now an evacuation effort underway as the region begins to flood, with 22,000 people in areas in most danger. It could also have repercussions for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which uses that water for cooling operations. There is concern that this could forestall any Ukrainian counter-offensive in the region. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the dam attack is an “environmental bomb of mass destruction,” and  has already approached the Hague about the incident. Zelenskyy also said that Ukraine is awaiting the final agreement on acquiring F-16 fighter jets. Russian, meanwhile, have been shelling an ammonia pipeline in the Kharkiv region, which has been part of the Black Sea deal around exporting grains and fertilizers.

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QP: Inflation isn’t burning, the country is

As the city was blanketed in smoke from the forest fires burning further north, things got underway in the West Block. The prime minister, his deputy, and all other leaders were present for the day, which was always a good sign. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, denigrated David a Johnston and his staff, and demanded a public inquiry. Justin Trudeau said that if Poilievre wants the facts he can get the top secret briefing, but he won’t because he would rather make baseless partisan attacks. Poilievre repeated the demand in English, and this time, Trudeau recited Poilievre singing his praises a decade ago. Poilievre said that it was tragic that the prime minister destroyed Johnston’s reputation, and demanded a public inquiry. Trudeau said that he didn’t hold Johnston’s previous appointments by Conservatives against him, while it was Poilievre’s judgment that was in question because he refuses the briefings. Poilievre pivoted to the topic of deficits and inflation, with all of the attendant misinformation, to which Trudeau decried the Conservative focus on austerity and listed things the Conservatives are blocking in the budget. Poilievre repeated the misinformation-laden demand in French, and got much the same response.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he took his own kicks at Johnston, and Trudeau said that he knows Blanchet looks forward to Johnston’s public hearings, and pointed out that they too are refusing the briefings in order to make unfounded partisan attacks. Blanchet chided that Johnston said that a public inquiry would be too long and too costly, and accused of him being hired to put a lid on the issue. Trudeau said that Blanchet would be more credible if he got the briefing.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he worried about the exploding costs of houses in Toronto, and demanded steps to deal with it. Trudeau picked up a script to pat himself on the back for the action the government is taking on “so many fronts.” Singh switched to French to grouse that Trudeau has official housing which he equated to meaning that Trudeau was out to protect the rich. (How?) Trudeau repeated his list of actions.

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