Roundup: Doubling down on the lies about the Ukraine trade deal

As the Conservatives flail about their voting against the Ukraine trade agreement, they are throwing out a number of excuses in order to double down on a stupid position that is backed by the lie that the agreement imposes a carbon price on Ukraine. It doesn’t, they’ve had a carbon price since 2011, but that doesn’t seem to matter. They insist that nothing they’re doing jeopardises the agreement, which is true—it’s already signed, and every other party is voting for this enabling legislation, but what the Conservatives seem to be forgetting is that all of this performance they’re doing for their domestic audience is being noticed aboard, and in particular by the Ukrainian government, and it’s not leaving a good impression.

To that end, they kept moving amendments at committee to include language about weapons sales, which is stupid because nothing precludes them currently, but that kept being out of order—again, because the deal is already signed. This is enabling legislation. And they kept trying to either remove the carbon price references or delay the bill until they could force the government to remove it, but they lost that gambit as well. But again, they’re sending signals to the people paying attention that they are deeply unserious and are going to be untrustworthy allies, and that’s going to do more damage in the long run, all for the sake of trying to score some cheap domestic points right now.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The death toll from the severe  snow storm in southern Ukraine has reached ten, with more injured as a result of accidents and power loss. During this, Russians struck a residential building and a coal mine in Nikopol, killing four and injuring ten others. The wife of Ukraine’s head of military intelligence is being treated for heavy metals poisoning, but no one will say if he was the intended target. Some in Ukraine are calling for defined ends to deployments, which are currently open-ended (as though the country were not in an existential war for its survival).

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Roundup: Threatening to engage in socialism to spite Trudeau

Danielle Smith raised her magic wand and uttered an incantation and called it the “Sovereignty Act,” and said that she was going to protect the province from the Clean Electricity Regulations, only it absolutely won’t do that. For one, the final regulations haven’t even been published, and for another, she can’t compel the private electricity generators to ignore federal law. In other words, she admitted that this is entirely for symbolic effect.

https://twitter.com/molszyns/status/1729274649509577072

But wait—it gets better. She also mused about creating a new Crown corporation to take over some of these private companies so that she could order said Crown corporation to ignore federal law like Saskatchewan is trying to do with their natural gas Crown corporation (which, again, is illegal and its directors will be legally exposed). So, you have someone who considers herself some kind of staunch, libertarian conservative who is going to engage in actual socialism (as in fully nationalizing the means of production) in order to stick it to Justin Trudeau. It boggles the mind.

Steven Guilbeault, incidentally, is undeterred and will move ahead with the regulations, because he knows that her incantation is meaningless.

Ukraine Dispatch:

A major snowstorm in southern Ukraine has killed five (and three more in neighbouring Moldova), as well as knocking out power grids.

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Roundup: The premier has no clothes

Alberta premier Danielle Smith is threatening to invoke her so-called “Sovereignty Act” next week to shield power companies from federal clean energy regulations—but that will do absolutely nothing. The province doesn’t enforce federal environmental regulations, so it can’t shield the power companies from said regulations. Smith might as well get up in the legislature and perform some kind of magical incantation, because it’ll have pretty much the exact same effect.

This being said, a lot of journalists seem to either believe that the Act is going to somehow do what she’s claiming, or they’re just both-sidesing it, because guess what—this is all performance. Smith has woven you the most extravagant outfit that is so magnificent that you can’t even see it. Right? “The Emperor Has No Clothes”? Or in this case, the premier has no clothes. Don’t take this invocation at face value. Point out that it does nothing, and that she is trying to pull a fast one to keep rage-farming.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine launched one of its biggest drone attacks on Russian positions in occupied Crimea, while Russians made a renewed push to take Avdiivka. Russians also launched a massive drone attack on Kyiv, where debris has caused injuries. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ordered reform proposals to the country’s troop mobilisation programme as the war drags on.

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1728127516299481335

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Roundup: Saskatchewan wants to play constitutional chicken

The government of Saskatchewan tabled their bill to “protect” SaskEnergy from repercussions if they go ahead with their threat to not collect or remit the federal carbon price on natural gas, and well, it is hilariously ineffective. Why? Because the federal legislation makes it very clear who is responsible for the collection and remittance of those funds, and this bill is trying to use provincial legislation to change a federal definition. You can’t do that. Provinces do not have that ability. This is just setting up SaskEnergy and its directors to face these penalties, because the provincial government can’t say that they’ll accept the responsibility instead. Again, it doesn’t work that way.

The minister, Dustin Duncan, then went on Power & Politics and was pressed on this issue, and he flailed for a bit before trying to make this a game of chicken—they’re going to essentially dare the federal government to follow federal law, and hold the persons responsible for collecting and remitting those funds to account. Because this is the level of maturity we’re dealing with. At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if the CEO and the board of SaskEnergy all walked off the job in protest of being put in this kind of legal jeopardy because Scott Moe is a child.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The death toll from the Russian strike on Selydove in eastern Ukraine doubled as more bodies were found in the rubble. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukraine has seized the initiative in the Black Sea thanks to their fleet of naval drones which has pushed back the Russians toward the eastern coasts. New UK foreign minister David Cameron visited Ukraine as his first trip on the job.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1725054494969373168

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Roundup: Maybe not just an industrial price

Because the vultures are circling around the carbon price, we’re going to be inundated with plenty of “proposals” about what to do. Like this one from Ken Boessenkool, who thinks that they should just kill the retail carbon price in favour of the industrial one, as though those costs won’t still be passed only (with less transparency), and it won’t give people incentives to change behaviour. Oh, and industrial carbon prices will disproportionately target Alberta, so I can’t see them being in favour of that either.

Meanwhile, Access to Information documents show that Danielle Smith was indeed lying about the “pause” on renewable energy products, but worse than that, she roped in the independent operators who should have maintained their independence. This is very bad, but she’ll continue to get away with it, like she always has.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces say that the Russians have intensified their assault on Avdiivka, but the Ukrainians’ defensive positions remains strong. A Russian missile struck a Liberian-flagged vessel at the port in Odesa. Ukrainian drone pilots are worried that they have lost the advantage as the arms-race between the two powers accelerates.

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Roundup: An incompetent vaccine rollout

In case you were under any illusion that the Ford government had somehow managed to get past their murderclown-level incompetence as the we’ve moved into the “ignore and hope it goes away” phase of the pandemic, well they haven’t. And the rollout of the latest round of COVID vaccines has proved this yet again as they have mishandled this spectacularly badly. Below is a thread from a Toronto-area pharmacist who is recounting that the Ford government had botched this so badly that they have to stop offering the vaccines. This is very, very bad, but like we’ve established, murderclown-level incompetence from the Ford government from top to bottom.

Way to go, Uncle Doug. Still managing to kill people after all this time.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces continue to hold off Russian advances at Avdiivka, while Russians have started attacking energy systems again in advance of winter. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that they can still deliver battlefield results before the year is out. He also pledged that they can ensure that reconstruction is free of corruption. Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia were told they are advancing in their desire to join the European Union, while Balkan states are being moved to the back of the queue. Russian state media claims they are using Ukrainian POWs as soldiers for their side, but it’s hard to take the claim seriously.

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Roundup: The premiers want their cut

I have to say that it’s extremely precious to see the premiers getting bent out of shape because the federal government has started taking action on the housing crisis by dealing directly with municipalities and using the Housing Accelerator Fund to incentivise them to get rid of restrictive zoning practices that limit housing development. They’re claiming that the federal government is encroaching on their jurisdiction, but these very same premiers have abdicated this responsibility for decades now. They have the ability to eliminate these zoning restrictions with provincial jurisdiction, and they have time and again refused to. So, the federal government stepped in, and now they’re getting huffy about it. And to their credit, the federal ministers are pushing back on this, as well they should (especially because once again, they’re being blamed for the provinces’ failure to act on this crisis).

One of the excuses is that Quebec had a deal for money that flows to the province and not municipalities, because the province has legislation that forbids the federal government from cutting such deals. Okay, but what’s the motivation here? Are they sore because they’re not being invited to the photo ops when these deals are signed? Or are they sore because they can’t take a cut of those funds and use them for their own purposes, you know, like they have done with health transfers for decades now, or how they took funds meant for pandemic supports and simply applied them to their bottom lines so that they could run surpluses while letting their health care systems collapse around them? Because neither is a good look.

Even more to the point, the provinces keep insisting that Ottawa should be the one to pay for things cities need, like transit, or social housing, or major infrastructure, because they don’t want to have to spend the money. They keep crying poor and saying Ottawa has all of the money, but that’s also bullshit because the provinces have the same ability to raise revenues as the federal government does, but they choose not to because they don’t want to be the bad guy by raising taxes, even though it’s all the same taxpayer in the end. But this is how federalism has degenerated in this country, and it’s time people start holding the premiers to account for their failures (for a change).

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces say that they repelled more pushes along the various front lines and in particular around Avdiivka. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is calling for unity as he dismisses the notion of wartime elections, and when he has been publicly disagreeing with his top general about the current phase of the war.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1721960135759741409

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Roundup: No, that’s not how inflation works

Because some of you at the back still don’t get it, no, carbon pricing does not contribute 16 percent of inflation. It contributes 0.15 percent, because inflation is a year-over-year measure, and when the increase is steady and holding, the actual impact on inflation is negligible, because that’s how inflation works. But several of you you keep insisting that your math is correct when it’s not, and so here’s economist Trevor Tombe to try and get it through to you:

https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1720919364172697678

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian missiles struck a shipyard in occupied Crimea, damaging a Russian warship there. There are conflicting reports about the state of the counter-offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region, where Russia claims they have halted any advance, while Ukrainians say that they continue to advance, albeit slowly. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pushes back against the notion that they have entered into a stalemate, and says they need more air defences so that Russia can no longer dominate the skies. Here’s a look at Ukrainian soldiers who have turned to jiu-jitsu after losing limbs in the war.

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Roundup: A “dull as hell” House

Jean Chrétien gave an interview yesterday to mark the 30th anniversary of his election win to form government in 1993, and there’s one part in it that sticks out for me in particular, which was about his time in politics, pre-dating his becoming prime minister, which has to do with the use of television in the Chamber:

“When I became a member of Parliament, there was no TV… In the House of Commons, we had no television. In those days in the House of Commons, we didn’t have the right to read anything. We had to get up and speak. It was fun. Today, they all come with speeches prepared by kids in the office and it is dull as hell, rather than have a real debate like we had in those days.”

This is spot on. It wasn’t just the arrival of the cameras that changed things, it was the relaxation of the rules around prepared speeches. It used to be that you weren’t allowed them, with very limited exceptions—the address in reply to the Speech from the Throne, the budget, and if you needed some particular help with specific facts or figures or translation (because simultaneous interpretation was a later arrival into Parliament). When they relaxed the rule around prepared speeches, it meant MPs started reading speeches into the record; time limits started to mean that they didn’t just speak up to that twenty-minute mark, but they were expected to fill the time entirely, which again, makes for very bad prepared speeches. There’s no actual debate either—during “debate” on a bill, the period for “questions and comments” is usually reserved for recitations of established talking points, with no actual exchange. One question, one response is not actually debate. Without relying on prepared speeches, and actually being allowed to debate, it would have made for actual tension or frisson between them, and to force them to know their material.

The other thing with the arrival of television is how it changed the nature of Question Period. It became very much about trying to a) get on TV, and b) providing clips for the evening news, which is one reason why parties started to do things like asking the same question in English and in French, so that they could get clips for both news services. With the advent of social media, however, the incentives changed again, and it was about creating content for those social feeds, which could include bad behaviour to drive up engagement. This is where we’re at now. It’s not exciting, and like Chrétien says, it’s “dull has hell” because you’re just watching badly scripted performances meant entirely for the consumption of clips. Politics should not be about this.

Ukraine Dispatch:

A civilian was killed in the Kherson region early Wednesday after Russians bombed the area. Russians are ignoring their losses and pressing on at Avdiivka, Debris from downed Russian drones downed power lines near a nuclear plan in the western part of the country, knocking out power for hundreds of people. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukraine will strike back if Russia attacks their power grid again this weekend. Here is a look at some Ukrainian sappers who have returned to the job of de-mining after they lost limbs doing the work.

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Roundup: Picking a fight over the CPP

Prime minister Justin Trudeau decided to get into a new federal-provincial scrap yesterday by releasing an open letter to Alberta premier Danielle Smith on the issue of her proposal to withdrew from the Canada Pension Plan and create their own provincial one. Trudeau said that he would fight for the stability of pensions in the country, and that his Cabinet would ensure that people are aware of the risks of Smith’s plan—which is wise enough considering that the whole thing is premised on fantasy math that everyone knows is not ever going to fly, and that Smith’s whole pitch is premised on that fantasy math (and that without it, the whole thing falls flat). But this is also the same federal government that is unable to have a frank conversation about absolutely anything, so it’s hard to imagine that they would start now, on this particular file, and would instead just trot out a bunch of feel-good pabulum about the current system, which is not going to help absolutely anyone, and it certainly won’t counter Smith’s lies and fantasy math, but this government can’t help themselves.

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1714644819807809638

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1714645765002510598

Smith naturally responded saying that Trudeau’s comments were unhelpful and if he wanted to be constructive, he should have shown up with a number of what the actual withdrawal figure would be. And it’s true that Trudeau’s letter had no figures in it at all, whether that’s because he relied on the platitudes about the stability of the existing system, or because he’s waiting to have a watertight analysis from his departments, and that’s going to need more time. The cynic in me says it’s the former, but it may be the latter, because there may be a serious effort happening to come to a realistic figure—which of course would raise the question of why Trudeau would release his letter today and not wait until that was in hand? In any case, Smith wants this fight with Ottawa, and the whole premise of this fight and the fantasy math is to use it as a cudgel to threaten the rest of Canada so that she can demand they back off on environmental legislation and regulation (which, again, she has been consistently lying about and the government hasn’t come up with a half-decent counter to). Given the state of play, I’m not confident this will wind up in anything but a giant clusterfuck.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1714691053083582798

Ukraine Dispatch:

The death toll rose after a Russian missile strike on an apartment building in Zaporizhzhia, while Ukrainian forces have been making some progress around Robotyne in the south. Near Kharkiv, a farm worker was killed when his tractor hit a mine.

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