Roundup: The King’s cancer diagnosis

There were some shockwaves as news was released that King Charles III was diagnosed with cancer that was found while he was undergoing his treatment for a benign enlarged prostate. The palace insists that it’s not prostate cancer, but have been extremely vague otherwise, and the King will withdraw from public-facing duties over the course of his treatment, though he will still keep up his state duties such as dealing with the Red Boxes daily, and signing things that need to be signed in them.

https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1754565735655887066

In terms of Canadian reaction, we saw messages from the Governor General and Justin Trudeau, along with a cursory if casual statement from Pierre Poilievre, but nothing from Jagmeet Singh or from Yves-François Blanchet, though that was to be expected. Still, poor form from Singh on this silence for the sovereign of the country he insists he wants to lead.

Meanwhile, Patricia Treble has some added context to this announcement both in terms of the history of the royal family disclosing medical information, and what it is likely to mean for things like the planned upcoming royal tour of Canada, which was supposed to take place in May, but is now likely to be postponed again. Here is some added detail about the Counsellors of State which could act in his stead if he becomes incapacitated due to his illness.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Some of the soldiers fighting near Bakhmut fear that they will be there until the war is over, as mobilization legislation continues to be debated including provisions that would allow those who have been fighting over three years to de-mobilise. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that he is considering a high-level military shake-up, which has some soldiers concerned. Journalists in Ukraine say that the country’s domestic security service has put them under illegal surveillance; president Zelenskyy has ordered an investigation.

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Roundup: Asbestos and rodent-free!

We are due for another round of sighs and hand-wringing as 24 Sussex has been declared asbestos and rodent free (which were mostly mice, not rats as previously reported), and the old wiring and plumbing are also gone, so now the decision needs to be made on what to do with it—and while yes, it is ostensibly the call of the National Capital Commission, they require money from the government to make any plans come to fruition, so this does wind up being on the government’s plate.

At this point, with the abatement work completed, it seems like maybe this would be a good time to just go ahead and do the renovations, including reinforcing the roof to protect against drone attacks (because yes, this is now a serious consideration) because this is still a worthwhile property and I think there is some symbolic weight and value of being across from Rideau Hall, and the image of the prime minister having to cross the road to meet with the Governor General is a good one to have, rather than the current “running across the back garden” image, which doesn’t convey the same weight or gravitas. And Rideau Cottage isn’t suited for a lot of purposes, like entertaining, working dinners, and the kitchen is too small for the prime minister’s chef to work in, which is why they used 24 Sussex still until recently, and currently use an unnamed nearby facility and deliver the meals from there. Plus, it too would require more security upgrades. I’m also not terribly keen on purpose-building a new residence in the site of a current parking lot, as has been a proposal.

My one request remains that if they do the work to restore 24 Sussex as a working residence, that they restore the original façade because it had a lot more character and is more in keeping with the neo-Gothic elements of the Centre Block (and the stripped-down 1950s appearance it currently holds is indicative of the architectural sins of that era). But let’s just get it done, while Trudeau is in the declining years of his government, when he can’t be accused of doing it to feather his own nest but that it can be justified in doing the work for the nation, like it should have been all along.

Ukraine Dispatch:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited troops in Robotyne, which is on the front lines in the south east, and the site of intense fighting. Over the weekend, two Ukrainian drones are purported to have struck the largest Russian oil refinery in the country’s south.

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Roundup: The dumb impulse to make hay of Jenni Byrne

Over the course of the week, Liberals feel that they found some kind of a clever wedge against the Conservatives in the “revelation” that Pierre Poilievre’s advisor Jenni Byrne’s firm is registered in Ontario to lobby the provincial government on behalf of Loblaws. Byrne herself has not lobbied, and the firm’s work has only done work around trying to get beer and wine into those stores, but those facts haven’t deterred the Liberals. Instead, it’s come up in Question Period and prime minister Justin Trudeau brought it up unbidden at a press conference because he wants the media to talk about it. This while their MPs start tweeting stupid things like “Conservatives have a vested interest in keeping food prices high.”

This is just sad, and it’s a sign that the party is flailing. There is no smoking gun here, and trying to insinuate that there is looks desperate. If anything, it certainly makes it look like the Liberals are going to start stooping to the kinds of dishonest lines that the Conservatives like to trot out in order to try and score points, which you would think the Liberals generally feel they are above, and if they too start going full-bore on fundamentally dishonest talking points to try and get ahead in the polls, then we’re going to be in serious trouble as a country if every party abandons any semblance of honest discourse. It also fundamentally undermines the actual message that the major cause of food price inflation is climate change, which you do not want to do. In other words, knock it off and grow up.

There is the added danger that this starts a contagion around other lobbyists and strategists that the parties rely on. Ottawa is a pretty small pool, and if you go after one party’s operatives who have lobbied, then it becomes fair game, and this escalates into a pretty scorched earth. Bringing up Byrne was a cute quip once in QP, and it should have been left at that. Trying to keep banging on this drum is going to have all kinds of collateral damage that nobody wants.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Knowledgeable Sources™ say that Ukraine has briefed the White House about plans to fire the country’s top military commander, while the defence minister has suspended a senior official in order to investigate suspected corruption. Russia continues to refuse to turn over any of the alleged bodies of alleged POWs from the plane they say Ukraine downed (because it totally isn’t a psy-op).

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1753430572150792628

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Roundup: The muted federal response to Danielle Smith’s latest policy

As expected, there was a federal response to Danielle Smith’s draconian anti-queer/trans policy video, but it was mostly just words of condemnation. Marci Ien and Randy Boissonnault had a scrum about it, but basically said that because they don’t have any document from Smith—the legislature isn’t sitting, and Smith herself said later in the day that nothing would be formally in writing until autumn—they don’t know how best to respond to this, so in the meantime, they’re going to consult and come up with ideas at the Cabinet table as to what the federal government can do, but one supposes that something like a reference to the Supreme Court of Canada of this policy, along with those of Saskatchewan and New Brunswick, may be in the works. We’ll have to see, but it’ll take time, so for the moment, it’s a lot of words of affirmation.

Smith did hold a press conference, nearly twenty-four hours after her video was released, and in it, she kept repeating that she was trying to protect youth from “irreversible medical decisions,” which both conflates the purpose of any social transitioning that they may do beforehand, and buys holus-bolus into the moral panic that kids are being indoctrinated into being trans and then “mutilating and sterilizing” themselves, even though there are vanishingly few “top” surgeries for minors, and no “bottom” surgeries at all. But dubious and discredited reporting that echoes through the right-wing media ecosystem has convinced parents that it’s happening (thus the outsized concern for their “right” to know), along with the pre-existing notion that if they’re told, they can stop their kids from being queer or trans (in other words, de facto conversion therapy). But nobody wants to talk about this moral panic. (More analysis about Smith’s move here).

Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre’s office has instructed his MPs to say nothing, especially to the media, and to report all requests to his office, and if they are to say something, it’s to emphasise “parental rights over decisions related to their children,” which a) is not actually a legal right in Canada, and b) has been the dog whistle for anti-queer and anti-trans rhetoric for a long time now. And of course, he wants them to stay quiet, but not because he’s worried about another homophobic eruption from someone like Cheryl Gallant, but rather he doesn’t want anyone coming across as too sympathetic because he needs to keep demonstrating to the far-right, reactionary crowd that he thinks is going to win him the election that he’s not too “woke” or small-l liberal, because that would doom their support. It’s little different than Smith keeping this up because she doesn’t want the leopards in her party (like the “Take Back Alberta” crowd) to eat her face like they did Jason Kenney. When you let your party get taken over or be entirely beholden to the crazies, you lose control, and that’s exactly what is happening here.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces say that seas drones were used to sink a small Russian warship in the Black Sea, while Russia claims that Patriot missiles fired from Ukraine brought down the plane that was totally carrying POWs and wasn’t a psy op (really). Ukraine’s army chief published a series of priorities and challenges are rumours of his rift with president Volodymyr Zelenskyy continue to circulate.

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Roundup: Danielle Smith goes draconian on LGBTQ+ youth

Alberta premier Danielle Smith unveiled her province’s “parental rights” plan in a seven-minute social media video with no written materials, no legislation, and the press conference won’t be until almost 24 hours later, because that’s a responsible way to run a government. And that plan is the most draconian plan this country has seen yet to restrict the rights of trans and queer youth, all done as Smith coos about having empathy and being supportive when the plan is de facto conversion therapy for a generation of youth.

I’ll likely be writing about this more elsewhere in the next day or two, but reaction has been pretty swift, and a couple of notable ones I wanted to highlight, one being Hannah Hodson, who is a former Conservative candidate whom I believe has left the party over this kind of thing. As for federal justice minister Arif Virani, I’m at a loss as to just what levers he thinks he can use to stand up for the rights of these youth, but I guess we’ll see if they announce anything in the next few days.

It is curious just how much the “freedom” and “bodily autonomy!” crowd seems to want to restrict the freedoms and bodily autonomy of people they don’t like and how Smith is going along with it because she doesn’t want the leopards to eat her face like they did Jason Kenney.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine shot down 14 out of 20 drones launched by Russia, but a hospital in Kharkiv was struck. There was a large prisoner exchange, in spite of Russia’s unconfirmed claims that POWs were aboard a downed aircraft. There rumours that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could sack the country’s top military chief because of disagreements over the handling of the war.

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Roundup: Trying to escape child care obligations

Some Alberta daycare operators are starting “rolling closures” to protest the new funding regime that goes along with the $10/day early learning and child care programme, saying that they’re not getting enough to make ends meet. This is 100 percent a provincial problem—they signed onto the agreement with the federal government, knowing what the funding agreement was and that they had obligations for provincial funding, and that included increasing the wages of the people who work in the sector (because there’s no excuse for it being so low, particularly as there is a gendered element to it).

So what’s Danielle Smith’s response? Aside from denigrating the operators doing these rolling closures, she is trying to blame the federal government, claiming that their spending caused inflation to rise, which is what is making these operators face problems. Which is, of course, bullshit. Federal spending has nothing to do with the rise in inflation (as the Bank of Canada has stated many times over), and even more to the point, this child care programme has been disinflationary (at least for the early years, before the base-year effect kicks in, meaning it’ll be a one-time drop in inflation). Nevertheless, because she’s blaming the federal government, she wants to shake them down for more money, because that’s what provinces do every single time. Thus far, federal ministers are holding firm and pointing out that provinces knew what they signed onto, but legacy media, of course, is once again trying to make this a federal problem.

And this keeps happening. We never hold provinces of the premiers to account for anything. Another good example is social housing—as former minister Sheila Copps pointed out, back in the eighties, the provinces insisted that the federal government get out of housing because it was provincial jurisdiction, and just give them the money, and they knew best how to spend it. And happens every single time, they spend the federal money on other things, and then blame the federal government once things reach a crisis because of their under-spending. Same with healthcare. Because we are allergic to holding premiers to account in this country, and that’s a very real problem.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russia is refusing to turn over any of the purported POW bodies from that downed plane, because it totally isn’t a psy-op. The head of Ukrainian military intelligence says that he expects the Russian offensive on the eastern front to fizzle out by early spring, by which point they should be exhausted. Lviv in western Ukraine has become the first city to remove all of its Soviet-era monuments.

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Roundup: More of a stage than an institution

The House of Commons is back today after the Christmas break, and you can pretty much guarantee that there will be a level of awfulness to the discourse, because that’s where things are right now. In fact, when asked over the weekend, former prime minister Joe Clark correctly noted that the House of Commons is “more a stage than an institution” these days. You’ve heard me bang on about this more times than I can count, but it bears repeating—MPs are no longer debating ideas. They are reciting prepared talking points into the record, because those are being used to generate clips for social media. It’s not even for the benefit of news media anymore, like it used to be (which caused its own particular problems with how QP works), because they all think they can just bypass legacy media and speak directly to their own audiences over their socials.

It’s no longer politics—it’s theatre. Bad theatre. The kind where people can’t even memorise their lines, but are full-on reading the script in front of them during the performance, not even on cue-cards that are far enough in the distance, and most of them can’t even be ashamed of their own amateurishness as they adhere to their party’s message, do what is expected of them, and continue to pretend that this is all normal.

And that’s why our democracy is in trouble.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Security officials in Ukraine say that defence ministry officials conspired with employees from an arms firm to embezzle nearly $40 million that was earmarked to buy mortar shells. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has disclosed his own income as part of a drive for transparency and combatting corruption.

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Roundup: Just what farm emissions are subject to the carbon levy?

While Pierre Poilievre continues to insist that the federal carbon levy is driving up food prices, he provides no proof of that other than his “common sense” reckon that the levy increases the price of everything.

It doesn’t really, but Poilievre likes to make you think it does. So, University of Alberta’s Andrew Leach has crunched the numbers, and lo, the carbon levy is exempt on very nearly all farm emissions, and contributes but a fraction to other expenses, like transportation. Of course, Poilievre is lying to make you angry, but it’s nice to have some receipts to know just exactly what the lies are.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The fallout of that Russian plane downing that allegedly carried Ukrainian POWs continues to reverberate, as Russia claims they gave Ukraine a 15-minute warning about said plane, which Ukraine denies; as well, Ukraine’s human rights commissioner says that he believes this is an information op because the list of supposed POWs provided included several names on it that had previously been swapped. Several Ukrainian state organisations are reporting that they are experiencing cyber-attacks. Russia is also claiming that Ukrainian drones are responsible for an attack on an oil refinery in Russia’s south.

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Roundup: A singular call for a leadership review

As the Liberals’ caucus retreat got underway in Ottawa (immediately after the Cabinet retreat), things got off to another rocky start as Liberal backbencher Ken McDonald told Radio-Canada that he thinks there should be a leadership review in the party ahead of the next election, and lo, the media leapt all over that story, and the rest of caucus spent the day insisting that no, they’re happy with Trudeau (though one anonymous Liberal praised McDonald’s bravery in bringing this up). The problem with this proposal? The party’s constitution has no mechanism for this.

The new constitution, which was adopted after the Liberals formed government, only has one avenue for a leadership review, which is that one is to be held if they lose an election. And fair enough—that’s really the only time they could hold one, because it essentially means running an entire leadership contest but with only the leader canvassing sign-ups and votes (because they no longer have paid memberships), and his or her opponents trying to organise a no vote. There is no way a sitting prime minister has the time or capacity to do this while running the country, and it’s one more reason why the way we run leadership contests is made to obscure accountability. It also guarantees that bellyachers like McDonald can’t get their wish because frankly there is no capacity for this to happen while they are governing.

This all points to reasons why we need get back to the system of caucus appointing and disposing of leaders. It restores accountability because the leaders are once again afraid of their own members, and must be more responsive to their concerns rather than doing things like threatening to withhold the signature from their nomination papers if they don’t toe the line. It also precludes these mini-leadership contests as a “leadership review” (where past examples such as Jeremy Corbyn and Greg Selinger were not great examples of the membership being able to get rid of problematic leaders). It would make for one quick vote and being able to put the matter to bed rather than this interminable grousing that we’re seeing now, and an immediate replacement of a leader rather than a months-long leadership race that includes egomaniacs who have never won a seat, let alone have any idea how politics works. But people who don’t know how the system works insists that this is somehow “anti-democratic” (which is bullshit), and so this bastardised status quo continues to make our system worse.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine shot down 11 out of 14 Russian drones targeting the southern part of the country in the early hours of Thursday morning. A Russian military plane crashed, and they claimed it contained 65 prisoners of war headed for a swap and that Ukrainian forces downed the plane, but couldn’t produce proof; Ukraine didn’t confirm or deny this, but made it clear that if Russia was transporting POWs this way without notice it was unacceptable.

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Roundup: Opening the Canadian Drug Agency

There was an announcement yesterday that went under the radar of what appears to be every major news organization, which is that the Canadian Drug Agency is now fully operational. This has been in the works for a couple of years now, first as in a transitional form while the government consulted with the provinces and territories on what shape this would take, and it has now emerged from transition status into a full office.

Why is this important? Because this is the kind of actual policy work that is going to contribute to future national pharmacare in this country, not the ridiculous legislation that the NDP are insisting upon, under the mistaken belief that this is something that provinces can join one-by-one like with healthcare. It’s not—if national pharmacare is to work, it needs to be all or nothing, because it won’t be economically feasible otherwise. That means you need the premiers at the table from the start, and they all need to negotiate the national formulary together, not just let Ottawa decide and join up if they feel like it.

So, while Jagmeet Singh and Don Davies put on this dog and pony show about the pharmaracare legislation that hasn’t happened yet, and say boneheaded things like “The Liberals are on the side of Big Pharma,” the government has been putting in the actual work, and not the performative part, for what it’s worth.

Ukraine Dispatch:

A shortage of artillery shells is forcing Ukraine to scale back some operations, while the Russians are changing their tactics in their bid to overtake Avdiivka. Ukraine’s military chief is now saying that the war isn’t at a stalemate as he previously asserted (to which president Volodymyr Zelenskyy contradicted him). Said military chief found bugs in one of his offices, and hints that more devices have been found. He has also been critical of Zelenskyy’s decision to fire all regional military draft officers in a corruption crackdown.

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